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The Future of Mobility: Is Personal Car Ownership a Thing of the Past?

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The Future of Mobility: Is Personal Car Ownership a Thing of the Past?

  1. 1. The Future of Mobility: Is Personal Car Ownership a Thing of the Past? #EnergyChat Webinar
  2. 2. #EnergyChat Webinar How will mobility be delivered in 2030? Will alternative fuels like electricity or biofuels finally be real competitors to oil? Will rapid urbanization and new generational demographics make personal car ownership a thing of the past? Or will autonomous cars or trucks dominate the roadways? #EnergyChat
  3. 3. Join the Conversation… Follow along and share your thoughts on Twitter at #EnergyChat Submit your questions in the GoToWebinar control panel #EnergyChat
  4. 4. Special Thanks to our Sponsor @Shell #EnergyChat
  5. 5. #EnergyChat Webinar: Moderator Moderator: Jesse Jenkins, Featured Writer and Digital Strategy Consultant theEnergyCollective.com Twitter: @JesseJenkins Jesse is a researcher, analyst, and writer with expertise in energy and climate change, electric power systems, energy policy, and innovation policy. He is currently a Digital Strategy Consultant and Featured Columnist at TheEnergyCollective.com. He has published peer-reviewed papers in the journals Energy Policy and WIREs: Climate Change. Jesse has been awarded fellowships from the MIT Energy Initiative Energy and the National Science Foundation. Jesse worked previously as the Director of Energy and Climate Policy at the Breakthrough Institute and as a Policy and Research Associate at the Renewable Northwest Project.
  6. 6. Webinar Panelists: Wolfgang Warnecke, Ph.D. Chief Scientist Mobility, Shell Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke was appointed as Shell’s Chief Scientist for Mobility in May 2011. His expertise in all forms of mobility, vehicle technology, fuels and lubricants sees him advising on technology strategy, championing science, R&D and innovation, enhancing Shell’s technical reputation in the fast-changing area of mobility and looking ahead to future solutions. Wolfgang studied Mechanical Engineering at the Technical University of Hannover, specialising in automotive combustion engines, and gained a PhD in Automotive Engineering from Hamburg Tech. University in 1987. @Shell Don MacKenzie, Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington Don MacKenzie is an assistant professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at the University of Washington in Seattle. His research addresses the travel and charging behavior or electric vehicle owners, the environmental and social equity implications of shared-use transportation services, and the effects of vehicle automation on energy demand. He holds a PhD in Engineering Systems from MIT, and previously worked as a researcher on technical and policy issues spanning fuel cells, biofuels, and efficiency technologies in both the private and non-profit sectors. Shwetha Surender Program Manager, Mobility | Frost & Sullivan| Automotive & Transportation Leading Frost & Sullivan’s mobility research with a particular expertise in: – Urban Mobility & Transport Policy (including car sharing, electric vehicles, smart mobility, integrated mobility) – Automotive Technologies & new business models, including EV’s, carsharing, ridesharing, taxi applications, ticketing & payment, and connectivity projects – Integrated Mobility and associated technologies/behavioral or social change – New Mobility Schemes (including BRT, PRT, cycle hire)
  7. 7. Shell THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY: IS PERSONAL CAR OWNERSHIP A THING OF THE PAST? Energy Collective Webinar November 4 2015 Wolfgang Warnecke, Chief Scientist, Mobility Shell Global Solutions (Deutschland) GmbH November 4 2015 7
  8. 8. Shell THE EVOLUTION OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY SYSTEM FROM 1800 TO TODAY
  9. 9. Shell FUTURE MOBILITY: DRIVERS & TRENDS NEW MOBILITY ENVIRONMENT NEW VEHICLES LEGISLATION ENERGY NEW CONSUMER VALUES URBANISATION CHANGE IN TRANSPORTATION COSTS & CONVENIENCE GHG reduction Zero smog emissions Emission-free vehicles BEV (PHEV)/FCEV Noise reduction Remote drive Sub ‚Smart‘ vehicles & pedelecs Combustion engine improvements Hybridisation Worldwide harmonisation Emission limits (Noise, Smog & GHG) Lights & brakes Safety Trade barriers Gov. R&D funding Crude oil ends More gas Advanced biofuels Renewable hydrogen Green electricity Emotional mobility Mobility on demand Bike share Car share Travel time Ageing population New architecture (‘Live & Park‘) Suburbanisation (USA) Urbanisation (Asia) Open up new driveways Traffic density Online purchase behaviour Increase in goods transportation Reducing personal mileage Refuelling convenience Transport mile/vehicle Cost of ownership ‘Continous Online‘ demand & connectivity Changing lifestyle (Remote work; Internet shopping etc)
  10. 10. Shell DRIVETRAINS, FUELS AND LUBRICANTS ... … PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE ? 10
  11. 11. 12 Transport = Door-to-door Mobility • New Vehicles: BRT, EV, High Speed Rail • New Business Models: Vehicle Sharing, Car Pooling • Inter- Connectivity: Inter- modality • Urban Planning: Reallocation of street space • Integrated Mobility: New technology enabled multi modal integration Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage Transport = Private Vehicle • Freedom • Convenience • Status • Progress • No Real Alternative Gen Y Connectivity Population Growth Urbanization Social Responsibility Natural Resources Pollution Congestion Globalization Virtualization Mobility Integration: Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage
  12. 12. 13 Car On Demand, and Mobility on Demand The true disruptive forces in Mobility are taking place via platforms linking supply & demand, a marketplace phenomenon; customers now expect mobility services on demand Didi Taxi Carsharing Car on Demand Ridesharing Parking Integrated Mobility Rise of platforms matching supply and demand to reduce spare capacity and improve the user experience > Customers now expect on-demand solutions and are happy to use shared services.
  13. 13. Automation may affect light-duty vehicle energy consumption through numerous mechanisms @DonMackenzie9
  14. 14. Join the Conversation… Follow along and share your thoughts on Twitter at #EnergyChat Submit your questions in the GoToWebinar control panel #EnergyChat
  15. 15. Webinar Panelists: Wolfgang Warnecke, Ph.D. Chief Scientist Mobility, Shell Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke was appointed as Shell’s Chief Scientist for Mobility in May 2011. His expertise in all forms of mobility, vehicle technology, fuels and lubricants sees him advising on technology strategy, championing science, R&D and innovation, enhancing Shell’s technical reputation in the fast-changing area of mobility and looking ahead to future solutions. Wolfgang studied Mechanical Engineering at the Technical University of Hannover, specialising in automotive combustion engines, and gained a PhD in Automotive Engineering from Hamburg Tech. University in 1987. @Shell Don MacKenzie, Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington Don MacKenzie is an assistant professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at the University of Washington in Seattle. His research addresses the travel and charging behavior or electric vehicle owners, the environmental and social equity implications of shared-use transportation services, and the effects of vehicle automation on energy demand. He holds a PhD in Engineering Systems from MIT, and previously worked as a researcher on technical and policy issues spanning fuel cells, biofuels, and efficiency technologies in both the private and non-profit sectors. Shwetha Surender Program Manager, Mobility | Frost & Sullivan| Automotive & Transportation Leading Frost & Sullivan’s mobility research with a particular expertise in: – Urban Mobility & Transport Policy (including car sharing, electric vehicles, smart mobility, integrated mobility) – Automotive Technologies & new business models, including EV’s, carsharing, ridesharing, taxi applications, ticketing & payment, and connectivity projects – Integrated Mobility and associated technologies/behavioral or social change – New Mobility Schemes (including BRT, PRT, cycle hire)
  16. 16. Special Thanks to our Sponsor #EnergyChat

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