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What's Next: Trends for 2020


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What's Next: Trends for 2020

  1. 1. TRENDS FOR 2020 Tweet us @OgilvyConsult #OgilvyTrends2020
  2. 2. Welcome Dayoán Daumont Consulting Partner Ogilvy Consulting Laurie Close Consultant Ogilvy Consulting EMEA Paul English Consulting Principal Ogilvy Consulting EMEA Emma Charatan WPP Fellow / Consulting Analyst, Ogilvy Consulting, EMEA Lara Sharrock Consultant The Corporate Practice, Ogilvy Consulting, EMEA
  3. 3. Tell us where you are dialing in from! What’s the weather like in your city?
  4. 4. Do you want this deck? It will be available for download shortly after the webinar on: And the recording up on
  5. 5. 2019 REVIEW Did we get anything right? #OgilvyTrends2020
  6. 6. HERE’S A RECAP OF THE 2019 TRENDS: #1 Omni-channel resurrects the High Street #2 The rise of the super CMO #3 In B2B, a new culture of business is emerging #4 Voice, not just a trend #5 The 5G dream deferred #OgilvyTrends2020
  7. 7. 2020 PREDICTIONS Let’s get to the good stuff #OgilvyTrends2020
  8. 8. THE 2020 TRENDS #1: Millennials continue to disappoint #2: Amazon’s inevitability is on the wane # 3: The balance of data shifts between valuable & liable #4: In the battle of ecosystems, the proposition prevails #5: Welcome to the experience decade #OgilvyTrends2020
  9. 9. 2020 TREND 1 Millennials continue to disappoint #OgilvyTrends2020
  10. 10. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources include: FT. Image source: The Consultancy Group Millennials aren’t who we think Millennials have long been the obsession of marketers. As they’ve come of age, they have been courted by everyone from digital upstarts like Birchbox to brands trying to reinvent themselves such as Pepsi. Millennial personas tend to be confident, ambitious and over- achieving, with purpose, action and entrepreneurship valued ahead of salary. They are the perfect consumer target audience, opting for brands whose values align with their own. But, western media and marketing have it wrong. Nine in ten millennials live in developing economies. Chinese millennials alone outnumber the entire US population. Millennials aren’t especially affluent, entrepreneurial, or acting with purpose. As we enter a new decade, we must reassess our assumptions of millennials and the strategies that businesses and brands have in place to interact with them.
  11. 11. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources include: CNBC, Business Insider, The Independent, Deloitte, Fast Company, Business Insider/Healthline. Image sources: FT, The Independent, Fast Company Millennials aren’t so great, after all A generation raised on The Apprentice and Dragons Den, the millennial is actually unremarkable in business. The brains behind Facebook, Snapchat, and Reddit are the exceptions. Fewer millennials have set up businesses than those who became adults during the financially turbulent 1980—90s. Fewer, too, have succeeded in buying a house; home ownership rates in America are among the lowest recorded in half a century, and many have moved back in with their parents. It’s not entirely their fault though: the cost of a first house is about 39% more than it was for baby boomers in the 1980s. In their careers, millennials are less likely to be entrepreneurs than serial job-hoppers. Almost half claim they would quit their current jobs in the next two years; 43% of whom are dissatisfied with pay, while 35% cite limited promotion opportunities. Millennials are eager to succeed, but don’t commit for long enough to do so. So, while marketers make them out to be high fliers, millennials are failing. They even face higher death rates than GenX, and depression and mental health issues are on the rise.
  12. 12. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources include: The Guardian, Europanel #WhoCaresWhoDoes? Image sources: Europanel #WhoCaresWhoDoes? The ‘generation of purpose’ does not put its money where its mouth is Marketers have long held that brands seeking a piece of millennials’ buying power must be purpose-driven to reflect the generation’s value set. From social ventures and start-ups to ambitions to ‘make a difference’ instead of a large payslip, purpose is now at the forefront of business culture. Yet, millennials may be the least purpose-driven generation, with just 30% appearing to prioritise purpose over pay and title. This finding is indicative of a gap between their good intentions, as expressed episodically in the media, and what they practice. For example, millennials’ outrage and public criticism of brands and retailers for failing to adopt plastic-free operating models is belittled by millennials’ failure to change their own habits. Only 15% can be classed as ‘eco actives,’ a significantly smaller percentage than in previous generations. Certainly, millennials have every intention to act with purpose; they are simply falling short. 21% 26% 18% 15% 19% 21% 19% 18% 21% 23% 21% 18% 39% 31% 42% 49% Total Gen-XBoomers Millennials Figure 1: Millennials are the ‘generation of purpose’, yet strongly under index in the amount of action they take to reduce their plastic waste and positively improve the environment.
  13. 13. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Image source: Kantar Futures, “Redefining The C-Suite: Business the Millennial Way.” Brands and businesses need to appeal to real millennial values To win, brands must shift away from the stereotypical idealised millennial to the real millennial. Businesses and brands need to assess what revenue this generation contributes, and scrutinise how everything from product positioning to communications helps retain and grow that audience’s value. Internal processes such as hiring and training must be similarly cast under the spotlight. Millennials' characteristic ‘job hopping’ appears symptomatic of a deep rooted dissatisfaction with pay and career progression. If millennials long for job security and growth, then businesses must ensure that opportunities are available for them to succeed, progress, and eventually, to lead, if they want to attract and maintain talent. A final word must go to purpose. Brands must help close the gap between millennials’ sense of purpose and their failure to create positive impact. Brands that give millennials a role to play in achieving their sense of purpose and facilitating action will win their hearts and minds. Figure 1: Research courtesy of Kantar Futures in partnership with American Express suggests what millennials are really looking for from their employers. 71%72% 74% Support staff and employees outside of work life. Create different kinds of value for employees and customers, moving away from a ‘sell lots’ to a ‘sell well’ attitude. Have a genuine purpose that resonates with people. THE SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS OF THE FUTURE WILL…
  14. 14. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: Forbes, BBC, Image Source: Washington Times. Marketing to millennials Is millennial marketing over? Should we instead focus on GenZ? We think not. But perhaps it is worth reframing how we market to this new, less sexy, possibly slightly depressing, and indisputably contradictory generation. ‘Tribal marketing’ eschews generational marketing altogether and treats segmentation as an issue of interests. We think this is a bit of a stretch. To dismiss millennials would be to miss a huge opportunity. Critically however, we must understand the nuances within the millennial generation. We must split the Zuckerbergs from those who find safety in the anonymity of large corporations and distinguish purpose-hunters from those chasing six-figure salaries. David Ogilvy once said that “consumers don’t think how they feel. They don’t say what they think and they don’t do what they say.” Ogilvy’s advice is spot on. People are not as rational as they say about their preferences, choices and behaviours. So, we need to decode millennials as individuals, at scale. After all, dubbed ‘the generation that’s fun to hate’, perhaps this is the result of the industry’s failings, not millennials’. Image 1: There is a juxtaposition between the idealised millennial to whom businesses have been marketing, and the real millennial. To successfully engage this generation, we must reframe the stereotype. THE STEREOTYPICAL MILLENNIAL THE REAL MILLENNIAL Entrepreneurial Seeking job security and promotion Confident and overachieving Witnessing the highest rates of working-age poverty ever Purpose-driven Purposeful in intent, but not in action Carefree Higher death rates, depressing, and mental health issues than Gen X Successful Underachieving
  15. 15. 2020 TREND 2 Amazon’s inevitability is on the wane #OgilvyTrends2020
  16. 16. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Source: Marketplace Pulse. Image source: Bloomberg, The Guardian, The Times, BBC Marketplaces limit brands’ control over their own experiences More than half of the global product search market belongs to Amazon, and it is the world’s third largest ad platform. The Amazon ecosystem offers consumers unparalleled convenience and low prices, and businesses scaled operations and a treasure trove of marketing insights. But, Amazon and other marketplaces have weaknesses: the buying experience for consumers is transactional; there are no people, customer services, or any emotional connections. Similarly for suppliers, Amazon offers limited control over the brand experience, and virtually no product curation. Amazon’s three million active sellers can sell any product with no price control. Sellers trying to game the Amazon algorithm are treated with no more or less respect than some of the world’s best-loved brands. Price erosion and fake reviews are rampant. Despite Amazon’s convenience, it’s challenging for sellers to stand out in such an undifferentiated marketplace. Additionally, Amazon can and does leverage brand and customer data to undercut even its ‘partners’ by creating its own, cheaper versions of brands’ products. Image 1: Some of the world’s most well-known companies are leaving Amazon to protect their own brands.
  17. 17. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Source: E-marketer. Image source: IAB: The Direct Brand Economy Taking control in a world where marketplaces dominate To control brand experience and data, brands can remove intermediary retailing touchpoints and instead sell directly to consumers. The past few years have seen a huge expansion in the direct-to- consumer market, with brands such as Dollar Shave Club and Glossier attracting strong followings. As e-commerce grows, DTC sales are also bound to increase. With online spend predicted to grow 85% between 2019 and 2023, and 40% of US internet users expecting D2C brands to account for at least 40% of their purchases within the next five years, this expansion looks likely to continue.
  18. 18. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Source: The Financial Times Digital and social commerce platforms let brands sell to their audiences directly, on their terms The existing ecosystem of technology platforms allows brands to affordably scale and understand consumers’ needs. These platforms also offer consumers more choice. Shoppers spent $40bn with 800,000 different Shopify merchants last year. While businesses have recognised social platforms as opportunities for marketing and advertising, the opportunity is ripe to capitalise on social commerce. In China, this is already the norm. As we enter the 2020s, we will see significant development in social commerce worldwide, with platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok exploring new features to allow brands to transact seamlessly with their audience. Brands that learn to sell in a seamless and unobtrusive way where their customers are already present stand to gain from the lower cost of acquisition. Discovery Awareness Consideration Purchase Purchase Discovery
  19. 19. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Source: The Financial Times More cult and passion brands will leave Amazon to focus on their own DTC models …Because they can. As 2019 closed, we’ve seen a shift in brands’ willingness to rely on Amazon. The likes of Nike and IKEA have jumped ship, and removed all their own SKUs from the platform, which means they gain more control over how they sell them going forward. Increasingly, the drawbacks of Amazon may outweigh the benefits for well-established brands that want to fiercely defend and control their experience, data and pricing. With growing options for brands to take back control via DTC and social commerce, we predict Amazon’s pre-eminence in e- commerce may begin to decline. Some established brands will find the breathing space to diversify their e-commerce strategies; and many more new DTC brands will not even consider Amazon as an option. We’ll have to wait and see which brands cut the cord with Amazon in 2020 – but many brands should be seriously considering it.
  20. 20. 2020 TREND 3 The balance of data shifts between valuable and liable #OgilvyTrends2020
  21. 21. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: Forrester, “Data Literacy Matters: The Writing’s On The Wall,” Forrester, “Top Cybersecurity Threats In 2020.,”, Identity Theft Resource Centre. Data is everywhere The production of data is expanding at an unprecedented pace. It is estimated that there will be an 4,300% increase in annual data generation by 2020. As the world has moved from analogue to digital, both individuals and enterprises leave data trails everywhere they go. That data has become extremely valuable to companies, which see it as an opportunity to better understand their customers, and a path to effectively address their problems. The problem is that everyone has data now, but few know how to use it. 91% of business leaders say it is challenging to convert data insights into decisions that will deliver business impact. Perhaps even more worrying than the missed opportunities around data are the increasing number of data breaches. The exponential production of data has given cyber criminals greater opportunities to expose massive volumes of data in a single breach. In 2019, more than half of all global enterprise network security decision makers had a data breach. 0 0 2 11 0 1 6 28 1 1 8 35 0 10 20 30 40 2009 2010 2015 2020 DataGenerationinZettabyte Created Data Managed Data Total Data 223 16 169 198 447498 662 781 1,632 1,244 045090013501800 2009 2010 2015 2017 2018 Databreachesandrecords exposedinmillions Data Breaches Millions Records Exposed 1 zettabyte = 1bn terabytes
  22. 22. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Data Source: Forrester, “The Customer Trust and Privacy Playbook for 2020,” 2019 “The annual cost of a data breach report”, conducted by the Ponemon Institute and sponsored by IBM Security. Data may cost more than it’s worth Today, data is easy to access, but if companies don’t equip employees with the adequate training and knowledge, they become vulnerable. Leaks of personal information pose immediate ‘damage-control’ costs, but they can also permanently ruin brand reputation and result in existential crises. IBM’s 2019 report on the cost of a data breach conducted by the Ponemon Institute states that breaches cost companies an average $8.19 million in lost time, revenue, and legal implications. It’s no wonder “security” has become the top concern of the C- suite, and a marketing focus for tech companies. But the impact is felt most acutely by individuals whose personal financial or health data is released publicly. When such a hack occurs, identity theft is often the unfortunate result. And recovery falls squarely on the shoulders of the individual. The cost goes far beyond money; it’s emotional, time consuming, and a massive life disruption. Thus, today’s consumers are becoming more savvy about what data they share.
  23. 23. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Data Source: 2019 Edelman Trust Barometer Executive Summary. Image source: Forrester, “The Customer Trust and Privacy Playbook for 2020,” Establishing trust and transparency is the path forward Despite the risks, the allure of mobile and digital technology is too great. People will give up their data for the convenience of managing finances online. We shop online, and use smart devices instead of credit cards to pay in stores. While not everyone reads privacy policies, consumers know they are entitled to an explanation of how and why their data is used. Edelman’s 2019 Trust Barometer reported that ‘high-trust’ brands enjoy 5% better performance than competitors. Even as tech giants creep into ever-more personal aspects of our lives, tracking things like sleep and stress levels, they have made efforts to mitigate the risks of storing personal and sensitive data online. Apple’s entry into healthcare demonstrates the mutual consumer and business value from a de-centralised data model. Creating an API infrastructure for its app marketplace and by leveraging industry standards like Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources or FHIR give the tech giant the ability create incredible value to is users while storing personal data in the hands of its users and not in the companies’ servers. Image 1: Forrester research shows Disney’s approach to earning consumer trust around data usage. The company’s privacy notices are easy to understand and enable consumers to make educated decisions about whether to share their data for a better experience.
  24. 24. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: Syzygy, 2018; Canvas8, 2018. Do unto data as you would like done unto you When it comes to data, there’s a significant disparity between people’s concerns and beliefs about their data rights and how much control they actual cede without realising. Although 52% of people in the UK wouldn’t sell their information to their favourite brand for any price, just 10% say they always read the T&Cs or privacy policies of online services they use. As people demand data protection from brands, establish your credibility by prioritising these three things: Simplicity and transparency will win A rebalancing of experience and Data People will begin to take control Image 1: Consumers are doing more than limiting access their info. Many are on the offensive, seeking out third-party tools that help them proactively manage their digital footprint. is responding to this demand by centralising all the online info people give out, helping users visualise the sensitive data they fork over on a daily basis. And Mozilla revamped its browser to turn off all tracking unless opted in.
  25. 25. 2020 TREND 4 In the battle of ecosystems, the proposition prevails #OgilvyTrends2020
  26. 26. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: NYT, Forbes, The Verge, Cnet, CNBC, Business Insider Keep your friends close, and your enemies even closer Over the last decade, a battle of increasing intensity has been waging over the hearts, minds and wallets of consumers. It is the battle for the ecosystem, and in it, single products are no longer enough – companies want to own broad swathes of their customers’ lives. Whether it's Apple, Samsung, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Sony, Nike or Oral B, mature companies realise that connected experiences delivered through multiple devices are more valuable than single products. There are many paths in, and companies are tying to embed themselves in people’s lives through mobile-centric, car-centric, kitchen- or living room-centric, even bio-centric ecosystems. Today, companies of all sorts who are looking at time horizons beyond next quarter's earnings are seeking ways to bring their ecosystems to life, either within their own offerings or through partnerships that heretofore would have seemed very unlikely.
  27. 27. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: World Economic Forum, Financial Times, Investopedia, Business Insider, The Verge Seven of the 10 most valuable companies are now based on an ecosystem business model The companies driving this trend are diverse, disparate and rapidly growing. In fact, research shows that ecosystems could account for more than $60 trillion in revenue by 2025 (or more than 30% of global corporate revenue). Some are start-ups, but the major players are giants who can expand into new categories and launch new arms with ease. In 2019 alone, Google announced new services in the home, travel, healthcare. 2019 $1,050B $943B $920B $778B $546B $507B $435B $431B $379B $376B 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  28. 28. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Image Source: Words About Games Incumbents across sectors are finding it increasingly difficult to compete This fight will be dirtier and more complicated than the previous smartphone wars. Ecosystems are expanding across economies and reshaping the business models of a wide range of industries. And many companies are finding strength in numbers. A number of companies are finding it advantageous to lift their veils of secrecy and team up with competitors to succeed. A recent example of this is the collaboration announced between Microsoft and Sony to develop future cloud solutions for game and content-streaming services. This teaming strategy between rivals might seem surprising, but if the future of gaming is cloud-powered, then a collaborative infrastructure will be key to fend off potential larger gaming threats.
  29. 29. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: NYT, Telecomms Image Source: Sky News But ecosystems are not just about partnerships Openness and collaboration are traits that closed ecosystems will need to consider. Being ‘open’ should be a core tenet of any organisation. After all, it grows the pie versus garnering a larger share of a smaller pie. ‘Collaboration’ will lead to new insights, new discoveries, and greater overall value for the end user of the product or service. Failure to embrace these principles will create barriers. However, ecosystems also need long-term, sustainable profitability and viability, so while partnerships may create value in the short-term, competing on the holistic proposition must not be overlooked. To emphasise the importance of a brand’s proposition, an example: Facebook did an incredible job of mobilising and engaging technology companies, publishers and online gaming companies to adapt their propositions to the platform. It created a deep ecosystem of content, product and services, and therefore a continuous role in the life of the consumers. MySpace did not create an ecosystem to support the community and suffered as a result.
  30. 30. #OgilvyTrends2020 With chaos comes opportunity The next ten years will redefine the world as we know it, and society will evolve over this timeframe, too. Ecosystems are the cornerstone of future growth. Ask the following questions: • What ecosystem are you competing in? Demonstrate your leadership and control points Is your company positioned in the right ecosystem? Make sure you are positioned in the right location • Are your competitors well positioned in the ecosystem you are competing in? Understand the strategic or tactical weaknesses in your competitor’s positioning that your company could exploit • What are your paths to growth outside of the traditional core offering? Develop new innovative, agile business models
  31. 31. 2020 TREND 5 Welcome to the experience decade #OgilvyTrends2020
  32. 32. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Image Source: Experience is the only thing that matters The “experience” groundswell has been mounting for some time. The domains of CX, the CXO, experience design, have gained influence across organisations. Much more than a buzzword, the experience advantage is real, just look at pretty much any “unicorn” that’s come to prominence over the last decade. Whether it’s retail, transport, banking, lodging, companies that have been able to disrupt have been those that relentlessly focus on the customer. What has been a strength of some is now an imperative for all: brands that don’t design customer-centric experiences will find themselves severely challenged. In 2020, brands cannot pay lip service to customer-centricity, relegate it to marketing, or keep it within the narrow remit of a CX capability. The focus on the customer is now an enterprise- wide priority, and companies that re-orient themselves around their customer experience will reap the benefits over the next 10 years and beyond. “The last best experience that anyone has anywhere becomes the minimum expectation for the experience they want everywhere.” -Bridget van Kralingen, IBM
  33. 33. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: Forrester, IDC. Image Source: New York Times, “How Sephora is Thriving Amid a Retail Crisis.” Great experiences come from brands with purpose and customer insight The idea of “customer-centricity” has been prominent among business pundits for some time. In response to the rallying calls, businesses have rushed to to invest in data and technology that promise to improve their customers’ experiences. Spending on CX technologies alone is projected to reach $641 Billion in 2022. Yet, businesses often to struggle to make productive use of these investments and come up short in customer satisfaction measures around experience. An over-reliance on the promise of data or technology can be the culprit, for sure. But where we see brands falling down CX, we usually see a failure to connect the brand promise, business goals and customer insight into meaningful reasons for audiences to engage. There is no choice between customer-centricity and brand- centricity. No CX platform without a strong brand promise at its centre can hope to achieve its desired impact. A clear articulated and communicated brand vision is also critical for enabling the organisation to make it happen. Image 1: Beauty retailer Sephora encourages customers to test and explore makeup through engaging in-store experiences, well-trained staff, omni-channel engagement, and a loyalty programme that delivers real value and recognition in exchange for customer data..
  34. 34. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: PwC “Experience is Everything,” : PwC Future of Customer Experience Survey 2017/18. You only have one shot to get experience right…or wrong One of the biggest challenges brands face is how to design experiences for every touchpoint. But brands must be more discerning. The principles that drive great experiences haven’t changed significantly over time. But, advancing technology – 5G, Cloud, AI, EDGE – have brought many new and potentially high impact tools into the mix. While people are almost constantly connected, their mindsets, needs and expectations remain unique in each situation. In fact, a third of customers globally say they would stop doing business with a brand they loved after just one bad experience. Think about this before launching your next chatbot or VR environment! Yet, the prize for getting experience right is worth winning. Consumers are willing to pay significantly more for products and services when companies provide a great experience. Figure 1: A 2018 study found that customers are willing to pay significantly more for products and services provided by companies with a great experience.
  35. 35. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: Forrester, “The Brand Experience Playbook For 2020,” X marks the spot Creating great experiences can no longer be a side project; experience must be treated as a key strategic initiative. Measurement is critical when you’re making the case for transformation. Yet, only 14% of CX professionals can quantify how an improved CX will benefit their brand and business. Brands need to find out what matters to customers, and measure it. Having the right infrastructure to collect big data and is necessary, but equally, using behavioural and neuroscience research can identify essential human insights. ‘Thick’ data helps to contextualise decision-making. Successful brands harness that data to give consumers better choices, more convenience, and transparency, building useful and meaningful experiences. Leading companies like Alibaba aggregate services from healthcare to grocery shopping to banking, creating a consistent experience in a single platform. Businesses need to stop thinking about experiences in ‘channels’ (e.g., mobile, social, retail, etc). Instead, the goal should be to create continuity across all points of engagement. Figure 1: Forrester tracks the impact across sectors of making even small CX changes.
  36. 36. #OgilvyTrends2020 / Sources: Forrester, “The Brand Experience Playbook For 2020,” Image Source: The path to creating great experiences Brands in your category that are excelling at customer experience have are of years of effort behind them, so it’s important that experience initiatives are right-sized for your company, your brand and your customers. A few starting points that have helped our clients along the way: • Conduct an experience audit: Map out the current state of the experience across customer segments. • Develop experience design principles: These can be used as a checklist for anyone creating customer-facing experiences, from product to service to retail and beyond. • Execute quick wins to drive momentum: Make sure your roadmap includes winnable initiatives that can be socialised to drive momentum • Don’t count on tech to do the job for you: Technology is the great enabler of customer experience, but it acts in service of it, not the other way around. • Remember the trifecta of brand, business results and customer insight: Missing out on one of these can cost the initiative dearly. Image 1: In a sector associated with confusion and lack of transparency for consumers, UK start up Monzo has become one of the fastest-growing digital banks by delivering on a promise to “make banking easy” through exceptional customer and brand experience.
  37. 37. By Ogilvy Consulting @OgilvyConsult THANK YOU FOR READING #OgilvyTrends2020