Agricultural Technology Potential and the Role of Irrigation, by Dr. Hua Xie and Dr. Claudia Ringler, IFPRI --The Feed the Future Zone in the South and the Rest of Bangladesh: A Comparison of Food Security Aspects Results of the 2011-2012 IFPRI Household Survey for the Policy Research and Strategy Support Program

1. Agricultural Technology Potential
and the Role of Irrigation; FTF Zone
and Bangladesh
Hua Xie, Andrew Bell, Elizabeth Bryan, Claudia Ringler and Yan Sun
International Food Policy Research Institute
Workshop on
The Feed the Future Zone in the South and the Rest of Bangladesh:
A Comparison of Food Security Aspects
16 January 2013
Dhaka

2. Technology Scenarios
Workshop April/2012
1. Identify currently used
technologies by agro-
ecological zone (AEZ) and by
crop
2. Identify the major
constraints to productivity
growth for key crops, by AEZ
3. Identify promising
productivity-enhancing
technologies/practices, by
AEZ and crop
4. Identify barriers to the
adoption of promising
technologies

3. Technologies by crop

4. Data Analysis
• Descriptive statistics (FTF and all Bangladesh)
• Production function estimates:
– For the nationally-representative sample & FtF zone
– For all crops produced (VoP) and rice (kg/ha)
• Descriptive statistics
• SWAT Modeling to assess potential of identified
technologies
4

5. Average rice yield by division and season
7,000
6,000
Rice yield (kg/ha)
5,000
4,000
3,000 Boro
2,000 Aus
Aman
1,000
0
Source: BIHS/FTF sample. 5

6. HYV yields slightly higher in FTF zone and hybrid yields
slightly higher in non-FTF areas
7,000
Average rice yield by variety (all seasons)
6,000
5,000
Rice yield (kg/ha)
4,000
3,000 National
FtF
2,000
1,000
0
local HYV Hybrid
Variety 6
Source: BIHS/FTF sample.

7. Irrigated rice yields are double rainfed yields. Basically no
difference between FTF and non-FTF
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
Rice yield (kg/ha)
2,500 National
2,000 FtF
1,500
1,000
500
0
7
rainfed irrigated Source: BIHS/FTF sample.

8. GW irrigation is associated with highest yields, canal
irrigation with lowest rice yields
6,000
5,000
4,000
Rice yield (kg/ha)
3,000
National
2,000 FtF
1,000
0
Canal GW Other
Source of irrigation water 8
Source: BIHS/FTF sample.

9. Irrigation is crucial—final impact depends on
source of irrigation water and crops
• Access to GW increases VoP by ~8,000 Taka and rice yields by 229
kg/ha, benefit higher for the lower expenditure group (BIHS-BAN)
• In the FtF zone, access to GW increases rice yields among the lower
expenditure group by 562 kg/ha, while access to “other” irrigation
sources (pond, lake, or river) increases rice yields among the upper
expenditure group by 1,230 kg/ha
• Canal irrigation has a negative effect on rice yields in the national
sample, especially among the lower expenditure group, showing it
is less reliable than rainfed production; canal irrigation is not
statistically significant for rice yields or value of production in the
FTF zone
9

10. Intensive cultivation of rice has larger
payoff in the FTF zone
• FTF Zone: Value of Production maximized
when 3 seasons of rice are cultivated [but
aquaculture crop not accounted for!]
• National sample: VoP maximized when 1
season of rice rotated with 2 seasons of non-
rice crops
• In both samples, boro rice (HYV/hybrid)
contributes most to VoP
10

11. Short duration varieties
• Cropping intensity-growth duration relationship
No. of Growth duration (days)
crops
grown in a Aus Aman Boro
year
1 160 116 121
2 139 122 114
>=3 99 115 104
11

12. Impact of Urea Use
• Each taka spent on urea increases VoP by over 2.4
taka (national) and 2.9 taka (FTF)
• Returns to other fertilizers are less: 1.6 taka (national)
and 1.5 taka (FTF)
• Urea shows significant returns to rice production
(kg/ha) in the national sample for both expenditure
groups but does not explain variance in rice
production in the FTF zone
• Fertilizer application shows diminishing returns to
VoP and rice yields
12

13. Other inputs have expected signs
• Results show positive (but diminishing) returns
to labor across all levels of expenditures and
crops
• Pesticides show positive but diminishing returns,
especially among the lower expenditure group
• Expenditure on seeds and tools also increases
VoP and rice yields in most cases
• But extension visits are insignificant for rice
yields and VoP
13

14. Results – top ranked technology
improvements needed by AEZ
Agro-ecological zone #1 Ranked Technology/practice
Modhupur Tract Quality Seeds
Barind Tract Drought tolerance
Beel & Haor Basin Submergence tolerance
Floodplain Quality seeds
Himalayan Piedmont Plain Cold tolerance
Northern and Eastern Hill Water and soil conservation practices
Tidal Floodplain Submergence tolerance

15. For Quality Seed/HYV only Aus and Aman improvement, as Boro is all
HYV, including hybrid (suggested for Modhupur Tract/Floodplain)
99.93%
100%
79.3%
80%
59.4%
60%
HYV
40.6% Local
40%
20.7%
20%
0.07%
0%
Aus Aman Boro
Source: BIHS/FTF sample. 15

16. Estimated area share (%) of HYV rice cultivation in
Aus & Aman season [BIHS]
Aus Aman
Source: BIHS/FTF sample. 16

17. High Yielding Varieties (HYVs) [BIHS]
Aus Aman Boro
HYV Local HYV Local HYV/Hybrid
Yield (ton/ha) 3.0 2.0 3.2 2.2 5.5
Under irrigation (%) 34% 11% 43% 18% 99.4%
Nitrogen fertilizer 89.7 54.3 89.9 61.7 126.9
(in element N, kg/ha)
Phosphorus fertilizer 33.4 14.1 28.0 17.6 49.9
(in P2O5 , kg/ha)
Potassium fertilizer 22.4 6.6 23.0 11.3 44.2
(in K2O , kg/ha)
Pesticides (Tk) 1,340 410 1,357 864 1,895
Source: BIHS/FTF sample. 17

18. Implementation of HYV technology across AUS
and AMAN
• Extension of current HYV yields in AUS and AMAN in 30
AEZ based on BIHS to replace currently local varieties
• National averages for AEZ without cultivation of HYV
All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone
Increased Increased Increased
Area Area
Production Production production
(×103 ha) (×103 ha)
(×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr)
HYV 1,245 1.4 2.8% 272 0.4
18

19. Estimated yield benefit due to drought tolerance
trait for rainfed Aus & Aman rice (Barind Tract)
Aus/Aman Aus/Aman
Future climate (2050)
Current climate
19

20. Implementation of drought tolerance
• Assessment focuses on rainfed Aus/Aman rice
• Using SWAT, we reduce the state variable of water stress by 30%
to represent improved drought tolerance under current and
2050 climate (CSIRO-Mk3.0 model under A1B scenario)
• 2050 climate change does not change the west-to-east drought
pattern; but shifts the center of the drought-prone area from
north-west to south-west
All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone
Increased Increased In creased
Area Area
Production Production production
(×103 ha) (×103 ha)
(×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr)
Drought 592 0.4 0.8% 144 0.1
tolerance (249*) (0.041*) (0.08%) (84*) (0.014*)
20
* Without consideration of substitution of local varieties with HYV

21. Boro rice yield improvement due to cold
tolerance trait (Himalayan Piedmont)
Average daily minimum Estimated boro rice yield increase
temperature in Boro season due to cold tolerance trait 21

22. Implementation of cold tolerance
• Assessment focuses on Boro rice
• Cold tolerance trait parameterized as rice yield tolerance of
2 degrees lower base temperature
• Simulation using SWAT
All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone
Increased Increased In creased
Area Area
Production Production production
(×103 ha) (×103 ha)
(×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr)
Cold tolerance 132 <0.01 <0.02% 0 0
22

23. Salt tolerance potential (Tidal Floodplain)
• High salinity risk area for rice production
Agro-ecological Zone Affected area (103ha)
Ganges Tidal Floodplain 339
Young Meghna Estuarine 103
Floodplain
Chittagong Coastal Plain 53
• Boro rice cultivation
Agro-ecological Zone Share (%)
Ganges Tidal Floodplain 0.06
Young Meghna Est. Floodplain 20
Chittagong Coastal Plain 26
National average 23 43

24. Implementation of salt tolerance
• Assessment focuses on Boro rice in coastal area based on
BARC and FAO data (soil salinity greater 3 dS/m) and IRRI
consultation
• Salt-tolerance trait assumed to lead to expansion of Boro
rice over those affected areas
• Calculated using BIHS data on Boro yields in salt-affected
AEZ [yield high but cultivated area small]
All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone
Increased Increased In creased
Area Area
Production Production production
(×103 ha) (×103 ha)
(×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr)
Salt tolerance 495 2.6 5.2% 159 0.9
24

25. Implementation of submergence tolerance
• Historical flood duration and extent of affected area data from
Flood Observation at University of Colorado
• Inundation duration-yield loss relationship for regular and
submergence-tolerant rice varieties based on literature review and
expert interview
Flood Duration-Yield Loss Relationship
Inundation duration
(days) 0-2 3-6 7-9 10-14 15-20 >20
Regular variety (%) 10 20 40 60 70 100
Submergence tolerance
varieties (%) 0 0 10 20 40 95
25

26. Aus & Aman rice yield loss reduction due to
submergence tolerance (Bill & Haor/Tidal Floodplain)
Aus Aman
26

27. Summary on technology potential
All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone
Increased Increased In creased
Area Area
Production Production production
(×103 ha) (×103 ha)
(×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr)
HYV 1,245 1.4 2.8% 272 0.4
Drought 592 0.4 0.8% 144 0.1
tolerance (249*) (0.041*) (0.08%) (84*) (0.014*)
Cold tolerance 132 <0.01 <0.02% 0 0
Salt tolerance 495 2.6 5.2% 159 0.9
Submergence 1,683 0.8 1.6% 72 0.07
tolerance (1,446*) (0.5*) (1%*) (50*) (0.018*)
* Without consideration of substitution of local varieties with HYV
27

28. Policy Conclusions--Irrigation
• Irrigated varieties show double yields (in large part
due to boro HYV/hybrid)
• GW irrigation contributes most to total production
value and particularly important for poorer farmers
• Canal irrigation is insignificant/less reliable than
rainfall
•  Given growing water scarcity important to focus
on improving water conservation in irrigation,
including enhanced GW management and better
canal irrigation management
28

29. Policy Conclusions—Other inputs
• Urea fertilizer is key for rice yield and total value of
production, but declining returns
• Across BAN, poorer farmer apply somewhat more urea
(252 kg/ha) versus richer farmers (244 kg/ha). In the FTF
areas, the richer apply slightly more urea (257 kg/ha)
than poorer farmers (248 kg/ha)
• Each taka spent on urea increases VoP by over 2.4 taka
(national) and 2.9 taka (FTF)
• Need to assess role and potential of extension
29

30. Policy Conclusions—Technologies
• Large potential to enhance agricultural production in
Bangladesh and in FTF zone through technological
advancements
• Each technology has its own geographic suitability
domain. Investment should target these suitability
domains
• For the FTF zone, largest potential for rice production
improvement through salt tolerance and HYV
development, which are followed by drought tolerance
and submergence tolerance development 30