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invited speech at Ge2013, Udine 2013

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invited speech at Ge2013, Udine 2013

  1. 1. Roberto Siagri President & CEO EUROTECH Spa Udine 20 Giugno, 2013 Accelerating change, Moore’s law and human ingenuity 45th Annual Meeting
  2. 2. The Eurotech Engine Eurotech Imagine. Build. Succeed. NanoPC Pervasive Computers for distributed intelligence and to enable the IoT HPC High Performance Computer for Data center, Science, Engineering 2
  3. 3. 3 “The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it “ The Computer for the 21st Century "The Computer for the 21st Century", Scientific American, Vol. 265 No.9, pp. 66-75, 1991 Mark Weiser
  4. 4. 4 ’92: From where we started
  5. 5. Reducing Overall Complexity Cost Time HW SW 5 Wirth’s law: Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster Moore's law : the number of transistors doubles approx. every 18 months Value follow simplicity
  6. 6. The Essence of Eurotech's strategy Finding the right PLATFORM that reduce Customer’s TCO and TTM It's a matter of SW vs. HW Cost Time HW COST SW COST - $ 6 For Embedded the PC is the platform choosen by Eurotech
  7. 7. 7 The power of industry standards
  8. 8. 20 years of progress ’92: A Personal Computer on the palm of a hand ’12: A Personal Computer on half the palm of a hand 16Mhz-1MB 1,6Ghz – 2GB RAM 8 X 10.000
  9. 9. 9 Less More
  10. 10. Malthus was wrong. He forgot a factor: our continual ability to do more and more with less and less because of Technological Innovation R. Buckminster Fuller 1895 - 1983 “The principle of doing ever more with ever less Space, Time, Matter and Energy per each given level of functional performance” Innovation moves from material to abstract
  11. 11. 11 MIPS vs. Time
  12. 12. Space Time Energy Matter Information Computation STEM compression : the Engine of Innovation
  13. 13. 13 Mainframes Mini Computers Parallel Computers Computers Food chain : part 1 Once upon a time ………. Vector Computers
  14. 14. 14 Computer Food Chain : part 2 the new Computer Ecosystem Pervasive Computer Computer Network/Cluster Mini ComputerMainframe Vector Computers Parallel Computers Dave Patterson, UC/Berkeley RIP RIP RIP RIP
  15. 15. Componentization “ The rate of evolution of any system is dependent upon the organization of its subsystems ” Theory of Hierarchy and Componentization Herbert A. Simon 1916-2001
  16. 16. 16 Amdahl’s Law
  17. 17. APE project 1999: 0,1 TeraFlops per rack QCD needs Supercomputers APEmille 2005: 1 TeraFlops per rack APEnext
  18. 18. SISSA MCA 2013 GPUs vs CPUs comparing GPUs with CPUs over the last decade in terms FLOPs, we see that GPUs appear to be far ahead of the CPUs 18
  19. 19. 19 Aurora Tigon: 140 TeraFlops per Rack CPUs and GPUs power Aurora Tigon HPC cluster to 3.2 GFLOPS/W Sets World Record for Energy Efficiency At the Top of the GREEN500 11000 CO2 tons saved 1500 cars that do not circulate for 1 year 11500 saved trees 15 Km2 of rain forest left untouched
  20. 20. SISSA MCA 2013 20 Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration IDEAS are the new “ultimate” raw material  Moore's Law Miniaturization ‘65  Transistors increase 2 times over 18 months  Metcalfe's Law Interconnection ‘93  Value of a network increases with the square of the number of connections  Gilder's Law Quantization ’00  Bandwidth increases 1,5 times over 12 months
  21. 21. 21 • Ubiquitous high bandwidth connection to the Internet at all times • Massive computation available on demand through the CLOUD • Tiny Computers embedded in – the environment, – our clothing, – our body Augmented real reality Computers are becoming pervasive and ubiquitous THE PLANETARY COMPUTATIONAL EXOSKELETON
  22. 22. 22 Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps) Geosphere/Geogenesis (Chemical Substrate) Biosphere/Biogenesis (Biologic-Genetic Substrate) Noosphere/Noogenesis (Memetic-Technologic Substrate) Le Phénomène Humain, 1955 The noosphere is a "planetary thinking network" an interlinked system of consciousness and information, a global net of self-awareness, instantaneous feedback and planetary communication Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1881-1955)
  23. 23. 23 Internet of Things: Embedded PC and IT integration
  24. 24. 24 What IoT needs An universal infrastructure where data can exist anywhere and be available to any device with some form of consistency guarantee Wearable Notebook Appliance Sensor Sensor Server Cluster Network Camera
  25. 25. IoT : i.e. from Embedded to Pervasive computingCost Time HW COST SW COST - $For the IoT the Cloud is the platform choosen by Eurotech 25 Finding the right PLATFORM that reduce Customer’s TCO and TTM Again, it's a matter of scalable SW vs. scalable HW
  26. 26. “A Period of Combinatorial Innovation” In the 1800s, it was interchangeable parts. In the 1920s, it was electronics. In the 1970s, it was integrated circuits. In the 1990s, it was the VLSI functions. In the 2010s, it was the SW Components. Hal Varian Google Chief Economist
  27. 27. The Internet of Things Modern M2M Systems Technology advances and standardization lead to a commoditization of distributed systems Where today’s solutions differ: • Scaling up to larger applications & implementations • Scaling down to smaller applications & implementation • Interconnecting solutions on a platform level • Much lower upfront investment • Much faster implementation / deployment • Much better TCO
  28. 28. APIs, Dashboards, Console, etc. The Internet of Things Eurotech Offer Consumers of Data M2M Infrastructure Solution Technology Building Block M2M Integration Platform Multi- Service Gateways Producers of Data Standard Interfaces
  29. 29. 29 Calm Technology Mark Weiser Ubiquitous computing just might help to free our minds from unnecessary work, and.. .. Connect us to the fundamental challenge that humans have always had: to understand the patterns in the universe and ourselves within them.
  30. 30. SISSA MCA 2013 Addressing the increase in Software Complexity Performance/Productivity Complexity and Size Assembly Limited reuse of written code PC –Programming Easy A lot of available programs Backward compatible Cloud based apps Multitenant Mesh-up Scalable 30
  31. 31. SISSA MCA 2013 In general the growth is exponential 31
  32. 32. 32 Aurora & Aurora Tigon Eurotech PETAscale HPC Eurotech is part of DEEP the EU EXAscale Research Project
  33. 33. 33 Growth Time today today + 3 years One order of magnitude change “.. is really about human activity, it’s about vision, it’s about what you’re allowed to believe… People are limited by their beliefs, they limit themselves by what they allow themselves to believe is possible." Carver Mead EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
  34. 34. 34 1949: …a panel of expert …. predicted that some day, a computer as powerful as ENIAC would contain: only 1,500 vacuum tubes; weigh 3,000 pounds; and require 10 kilowatts of power to operate. Such a machine would be about the size and weight of an automobile with power consumption to match. Popular Mechanics March 1949
  35. 35. 35 …we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century, it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate) Law of accelerating returns Ray Kurzweil The singularity is near
  36. 36. Sustainable Growth vs. Saturation S curves get old Time Performance Evolution phase Take-off Research, Invention phase Return reduction New technology Existing technology New Evolution phase 36Each new TECHNOLOGICAL substrate is more efficient than the previous one
  37. 37. 37 clock speed blocked CPU clock speed for a single CPU hovering around 3.4Ghz.
  38. 38. …but the computational power per die is growing Although single CPUs have been limited, due to the rise of multi-core machines, the computational power per die has still been increasing 38
  39. 39. SISSA MCA 2013 CPU Trends 39
  40. 40. SISSA MCA 2013 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Calculationspersecond The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999), by Ray Kurzweil One insect brain One mouse brain 1040 1035 1030 1025 1020 1015 1010 105 10 10-5 $1,000 of computing buys… One human brain All human brains The Exponential Growth of Computing, 1900-2100
  41. 41. SISSA MCA 201341 The fundamental limits of computatio the Fundamental Limits of Computation
  42. 42. 42 Ultimate (zetta-wattaflop) Computing Machine according to Seth Lloyd a 1-kg computer compressed to the black-hole limit can perform : 1051 ops/sec on its: 1016 bits, updated at a rate of about : 1035 update/sec Seth Lloyd - “Ultimate physical limits to computation” Nature, 2000 Quantum Physics Theory Super computers nowadays achieve 1015 ops/sec with a pace of Moore’s law: x2 every 1.5 years technology needs~ 250 years to reach these limits
  43. 43. The Benchmark… ~ 1016 ops/sec 25 Watt 1350 cm3 1500 gr Surface I7 CPU: 160 mm2 Brain : ~ 160 000 mm2 Assuming an I7 of the same surface Operations per Second I7 CPU: 10^11 Ops x 1000 = 10^14 Brain : ~ 10^16 Ops Power I7 CPU: 77 Watts x 1000 = 77 K Watts Brain : 25 Watts
  44. 44. Computing Platforms in 2030 • Personal Computer [$1000] – 10^10 Flops/sec in 2010 ⇒ 10^16 – 10^17 Flops/sec 44 • Supercomputer [$100,000,000] – 10^15 Flops/sec in 2010 ⇒10^21 – 10^22 Flops/sec • Number of Computers [global population ~10^10] – SCs ⇒ 10^-8 –10^-6 per person ⇒ 10^2 – 10^4 systems – PCs ⇒ .1x – 10x per person ⇒10^9 – 10^11 systems – Embedded ⇒ 10x – 10^5x per person ⇒ 10^11 – 10^15 systems – Nanocomputers ⇒ 0x – 10^10 per person ⇒ 0 – 10^20 systems Available Flops Planet-wide 10^24 – 10^30 Flops/sec [assuming classical models of computation]
  45. 45. Many Paradigm Changes • Vertical Integration – High core-cache bandwidth (new scaling roadmap for 15 years) • Heat Removal – Liquid cooling and heat re-use • New Materials – Carbon Nanostructured • Supply and Cooling area vs. Transistors area – Electrochemical power supply • Production process – 3D printing 45
  46. 46. Annual meeting American Physical Society 1959 Still … Plenty of Room at the Bottom … But there is plenty of room to make them [computers] smaller. There is nothing that I can see in the physical law that says the computer elements cannot be made enormously smaller than they are now.…. R. FEYNMAN 46
  47. 47. The only stable component in nature is the change! The tentative fourth law of thermodynamics. S.E. Joergensen Thank you for your attention