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المحاضرة الثالثة

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KCSS مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية
KCSS مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية

دورة تدريبية في المفاهيم الاساسية في الدراسات الاستراتيجية والأمنية المعاصرة. المحاضرة الثالثة : تحليل الموقف الاستراتيجي (أ.د. أحمد كاظم بريس)

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‫اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻔﺎھﯿﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﺻﺮة‬ ‫واﻷﻣﻨﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺿﺮة‬ : ) ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ( ‫أ‬ . ‫د‬ . ‫اﻟﯿﺴﺎري‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﻛﺎظﻢ‬ ‫أﺣﻤﺪ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺑﻼء‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ‬ • ‫�ﻘﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟق�ﺎدة‬ ‫اﺘ�ج�ﺔ‬ ‫ر‬‫اﻻﺴت‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ا�ﺔ‬ ‫ﻤنظمﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻬمﺔ‬ ‫ﺘحﻠیﻞ‬ ‫اﻟموقف‬ ‫اﺘ�جﻲ‬ ‫ر‬‫اﻻﺴت‬ ،‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ذﻟك‬ ‫ﻟمﻌرﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﺎﻫﻲ‬ ‫اﺘ�ج�ﺎت‬ ‫ر‬‫اﻻﺴت‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬ ‫اﻟتﻲ‬ ‫�مكن‬ ‫اﺘخﺎذﻫﺎ‬ ‫اﻨسجﺎﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤﻊ‬ ‫إﻤكﺎﻨﺎت‬ ‫اﻟمنظمﺔ‬ ‫اﻟداﺨﻠ�ﺔ‬ ) ‫اﻟﻘو‬ ‫ة‬ ‫اﻟضعﻒ‬‫و‬ ( ‫اﻗﻔﻬﺎ‬‫و‬‫وﻤ‬ ‫اﻟخﺎرﺠ�ﺔ‬ ) ‫اﻟﻔرص‬ ‫اﻟتﻬدﯿدات‬‫و‬ ( . ‫ﻓﻘد‬ ‫أﺼ�ﺢ‬ ‫اﻟتحﻠیﻞ‬ ‫اﺘ�ج‬ ‫ر‬‫اﻻﺴت‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫إداة‬ ‫ﻤثﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘسﺎﻋد‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ﻟكثیر‬ ‫ﻤن‬ ‫اﻟمؤﺴسﺎت‬ ‫اء‬‫و‬‫ﺴ‬ ‫�ﺎﻨت‬ ‫ﺘﺎ�ﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘطﺎع‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫او‬ ‫اﻟﻘطﺎع‬ ‫اﻟخﺎص‬ ‫ﻤن‬ ‫أﺠﻞ‬ ‫ﻀمﺎن‬ ‫�ﻘﺎﺌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ار�تﻬﺎ‬ ‫ر‬‫اﺴتم‬‫و‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺴ�مﺎ‬ ‫�ﻌد‬ ‫اﯿد‬ ‫ز‬‫ﺘ‬ ‫اﻟمنﺎﻓسﺔ‬ ‫اﻻﻨﻔتﺎح‬‫و‬ ‫اﻟكبیر‬ ‫اﻟذي‬ ‫ﺤﻘﻘتﻪ‬ ‫اﻟﻌو‬ ‫ﻟمﺔ‬ ‫اﻻﺴتخدام‬‫و‬ ‫اﻟمﻔرط‬ ‫ﻟتكنوﻟوﺠ�ﺎ‬ ‫اﻟمﻌﻠوﻤﺎت‬ ، ‫اﻻﻤر‬ ‫اﻟذي‬ ‫ﺨﻠق‬ ‫ﺘحد�ﺎت‬ ‫ة‬ ‫�بیر‬ ‫ﻟمختﻠﻒ‬ ‫ة‬ ‫أﺠﻬز‬ ‫اﻟدوﻟﺔ‬ ‫وﻻ‬ ‫ﺴ‬ ‫�مﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟجﺎﻨب‬ ‫اﻷﻤنﻲ‬ ‫ي‬ ‫اﻻﺴتخ�ﺎر‬‫و‬ . • ‫ﺼح�ﺢ‬ ‫إن‬ ‫ﺘحﻠیﻞ‬ ‫اﻟموقف‬ ‫اﺘ�جﻲ‬ ‫ر‬‫اﻻﺴت‬ ‫�ﻌتمد‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻤتﺎح‬ ‫ﻟدى‬ ‫ة‬ ‫اﻷﺠﻬز‬ ‫اﻟمختﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻤن‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻠ‬ ‫وﻤﺎت‬ ‫اء‬‫و‬‫ﺴ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻨت‬ ‫ﺘخص‬ ‫اﻟمﺎﻀﻲ‬ ‫او‬ ‫اﻟحﺎﻀر‬ ، ‫وﻟكنﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﻠ�ﺎ‬ ‫ﯿﻬدف‬ ‫اﻟﻰ‬ ‫رﺴم‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ﺼور‬ ‫اﻟمستﻘبﻞ‬ ‫ﻟﻠمؤﺴس‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ، ‫اﻷﻤر‬ ‫اﻟذي‬ ‫�ﻌد‬ ‫اﻷﺴﺎس‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫وﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺨطط‬ ‫ﻤستﻘبﻠ�ﺔ‬ ‫اﺘ�ج�ﺔ‬ ‫ر‬‫اﺴت‬‫و‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺨذ‬ ‫ﺒنظر‬ ‫اﻻﻋت�ﺎر‬ ‫�ﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫اﻟمت‬ ‫ات‬ ‫ر‬‫ﻐی‬ ‫اﻟبیئ�ﺔ‬ ‫اﻟمحتمﻠﺔ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺘﺄﺜیر‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟ�ﺎت‬ ‫اﻟمؤﺴسﺔ‬ ‫وﻗدرﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺘحﻘیق‬ ،‫أﻫداﻓﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻤن‬ ‫ﺨﻼل‬ ‫ﺘوﻗﻊ‬ ‫اﻻﺤداث‬ ‫اﻟمستﻘبﻠ�ﺔ‬ ‫ة‬ ‫و�صور‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ﻤستمر‬ ‫ﺤیث‬، ‫ان‬ ‫اﻟبیئﺔ‬ ‫ذات‬ ‫طب�ﻌﺔ‬ ‫دﯿنﺎﻤ�كﺔ‬ ‫ﻤتجددة‬ ‫ة‬ ‫وﻤتﻐیر‬ ‫�ﺎﺴ‬ ‫ار‬ ‫ر‬‫تم‬ ‫ان‬‫و‬ ‫أﺴﺎس‬ ‫ﻨجﺎح‬ ‫أ�ﺔ‬ ‫ﻤنظمﺔ‬ ‫اﻨمﺎ‬ ‫ﻫو‬ ‫�ﻘدرﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺒنﺎء‬ ‫ﺨططﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟمستندة‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻤﻌﻠوﻤﺎت‬ ‫دق�ﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻤو‬ ‫اﻛ�ﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﺤدث‬ ‫اﻻﺘجﺎﻫﺎت‬ ‫اﻷﻓكﺎر‬‫و‬ ‫اﻟسﺎﺌدة‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟبیئﺔ‬ ‫اﻟتﻲ‬ ‫ﺘﻌمﻞ‬ ‫ﺒﻬﺎ‬ .
‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﮭﻮم‬ • ‫أﺷﺎر‬ ) Sun Tzu ( ‫اﻧﮫ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺎل‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣطﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﻻھﻣﺎل‬ ‫دراﺳﺔ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺗراﺗﯾﺟﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﻧﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺛل‬ ‫اﻟﻔرق‬ ‫ﺑﯾ‬ ‫ن‬ ‫اﻟﺣﯾﺎة‬ ‫واﻟﻣوت‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﻧظﻣﺎت‬ ‫واﻷﺟﮭزة‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ . ‫ﻓﺎﻻﺳﺗراﺗﯾﺟﯾﺔ‬ ‫ھﻲ‬ ‫اﻟوﺳﺎﺋل‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﯾﺳ‬ ‫ﺗﺧدﻣﮭﺎ‬ ‫اﻻﻓراد‬ ‫واﻷﺟﮭزة‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻐرض‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﯾﻖ‬ ‫أھداﻓﮭم‬ ‫اﻟﻛﻠﯾﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺗﻣﯾﯾزا‬ ‫ﻟﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻋن‬ ‫اﻷھداف‬ ‫اﻟﻔرﻋﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﯾﻣﻛن‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﯾﻘﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻋن‬ ‫طرﯾﻖ‬ ‫اﻟﺗﻛﺗﯾك‬ ( . • ‫ﻌﺮف‬ُ‫ﻳ‬ ‫ﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ouibah and Ould ‫اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺘﻨﺪ‬ ‫اﻟ‬ ‫ﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬ ‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻟﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻜﯿﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻹﺣﺎطﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺌ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﯿﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻐﺮض‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻌﺮف‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺮص‬ ‫اﻟـﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻟﮭﺎ‬ ‫أو‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﮭﺪﻳﺪات‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺎدﻳﮭﺎ‬ ‫واﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫آﺛﺎرھﺎ‬ . • ‫ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﻓﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ Babatunde and Adebola ‫ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ‬ ‫ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ‬ ‫وﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺌﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ • Wheelen and Hunger ‫ﻳﺸﯿﺮان‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻧﻪ‬ ‫رﺻﺪ‬ ‫وﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺒ‬ ‫ﯿﺌﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ‬ ،‫واﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ‬ ‫وأن‬ ‫اﻟﻐﺮض‬ ‫ﻣﻨ‬ ‫ﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻤ‬ ‫ﯿ‬ ‫ﯿﺰ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﻜﻮن‬ ‫ﻟﮭﺎ‬ ‫دور‬ ‫ﻛﺒﯿﺮ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ .
‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫أھﻤﯿﺔ‬ • ‫ﻳﺠﻌﻞ‬ ‫ﻗﺎدة‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫دراﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺷﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻜﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻈﺮوف‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺌﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺤﯿﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﮭﺎ‬ . • ‫ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ‬ ‫ﻗﺎدة‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺮص‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫اﻣﺎﻣﮭﻢ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ‬ ‫اھﺪاف‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺘﮭﻢ‬ ‫واﻟﺘﻐﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺴﯿﮭﻢ‬ . • ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺤﯿﻂ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﮭﺪﻳﺪات‬ ‫وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺨﻠ‬ ‫ﺺ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﮭﺎ‬ ‫او‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﺛﺎرھﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻰ‬ ‫ادﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻤﻜﻦ‬ . • ‫اﻟﺘﺨﺼﯿﺺ‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻮارد‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ‬ . • ‫ﻳﺴﺎھﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺒﺮات‬ ‫وﻗﺪرات‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫اﻓﻀﻞ‬ . • ‫ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺪرات‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻤﯿﺰة‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻈ‬ ‫ﻤﺔ‬ ، ‫وھﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺘﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﺘﮭﺎ‬ .
‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ‬ • ‫ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺘﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺳﺲ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ‬ • ‫دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬ ‫وﻣﺮﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ان‬ ‫واﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺣﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻤﺎﺷﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺌﯿﺔ‬ • ‫ﻣﺘﻄﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺤﻮ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﺣﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺸﺠﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺠﺎح‬ • ‫ﺗﺸﺠﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻮار‬ ‫وﺗﺒﺎدل‬ ‫اﻷﻓﻜﺎر‬ ‫ﺑﯿﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‬ ‫ﻓﺌﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻨﻈ‬ ‫ﻤﺔ‬ • ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮة‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺣﺪ‬ ‫اﻋﺪاد‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺔ‬ ‫واﻋﺘﻤﺎدھﺎ‬ ‫واﻧﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺴ‬ ‫ﺘﻤﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺤﺪد‬ ‫اﻟﻤﮭﻢ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺔ‬ .
‫؟‬SOWT ‫ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﺎذا‬ ‫رﺑﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺪ‬ ‫ھﺬا‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﺷﮭﺮ‬ ‫واھﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻼت‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺣﯿﺚ‬ ‫اﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﯿﺢ‬ ‫إﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﮭﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺮص‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫اﻣﺎم‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ، ‫واﻟﺘ‬ ‫ﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻮن‬ ‫ﺗﻄﻮر‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫او‬ ‫ﺗﻄﻮر‬ ‫اﺳﺘﺨﺒﺎري‬ ‫او‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ‬ .. ‫ﻓﮭﻮ‬ ‫ﻳﺴ‬ ‫ﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺑﺒﻨﺎء‬ ‫ﻗﻮة‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫وﺧﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﻓﺮص‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪة‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ‬ ‫اھﺪاف‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ . ‫وھﻮ‬ ‫ﻣﮭﻢ‬ ‫أﻳﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﻷﺧﺬ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺎطﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﯿﻦ‬ ‫اﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻐﺬﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻜﺴﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻮاردة‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺌﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ‬ . ‫و‬ ‫ﻳﺠﺎوب‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﺜﯿﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﻮل‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ھﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺎطﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﺒﺮى‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﻮف‬ ‫ﺗﻮاﺟﮭﮭﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫اﻵن‬ ‫وﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻷﻋﻮام‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ‬ ‫؟‬ ‫وھﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻌﺮف‬ ‫أﻧﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺠﺐ‬ ‫ﻣﺮاﻗﺒﺔ‬ ‫ھﺬه‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺎطﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﻮف‬ ‫ﺗﻮاﺟﮭﮭﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺻﻞ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘ‬ ‫ﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﮭﺎ‬ . ‫إن‬ ‫اﺧﺘﯿﺎر‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺘﻤﺪ‬ ً‫أﺳﺎﺳﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬ SWOT ، ‫وإن‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻀﻊ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺔ‬ ‫إﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺔ‬ ‫وﻟﻢ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺧﺬ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﯿﻦ‬ ‫اﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎر‬ ‫أھﻤﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻ‬ ‫ﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻮف‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮض‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺴﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺮ‬ .
‫اﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎت‬ 1 – ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎط‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻮة‬ ‫واﻟﻀﻌﻒ‬ ‫اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ‬ : ‫أ‬ – ‫اﻟﻘﻮة‬ : ‫ھﻲ‬ ‫أﺷﯿﺎء‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﻠﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫اﻓﻀﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺴﯿﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎم‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬ ،‫ﻣﺘﻄﻮر‬ ‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ‬ ‫وﻛﻼء‬ ‫ﻗﻮﻳﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻣﻮارد‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﯿ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻟﯿﺔ‬،‫ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻮارد‬،‫اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﺸﺮﻳﺔ‬ ،‫ﻛﻔﻮءة‬ ‫ﻣﻮارد‬ ‫ﻣﺎدﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﯿ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ .... ‫اﻟﻎ‬ ‫ب‬ – ‫اﻟﻀﻌﻒ‬ : ‫ھﻮ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺾ‬ ‫اﻷﺷﯿﺎء‬ ‫أو‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺪل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺺ‬ ‫أو‬ ‫ﺿﻌﻒ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫إﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺤﯿﺚ‬ ‫ﺗﺠﻌﻠﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻏﯿﺮ‬ ‫ﻗﺎدرة‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫اﻻﺧﺮﻳﻦ‬ ، ‫ﻣﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﺿﻌﻒ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮارد‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬ ‫واﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺿﻌﻒ‬ ‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮز‬ ‫ﻳﻊ‬ ، ‫ﻣﻌﺪل‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ﻟﺪوران‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬ ، .....
‫اﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎت‬ 2 – ‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ‬ ‫واﻟﺘﮭﺪﻳﺪات‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺮص‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ : ‫أ‬ – ‫اﻟﻔﺮص‬ : ‫اﺳﺘﻐﻼﻟﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫واﻟﻤﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺰﻣﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻈﺮوف‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻚ‬ ‫ھﻲ‬ ‫اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط‬ ‫ﺑﺤﻜﻢ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻜﺮر‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺮص‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫وﻛﺜﯿﺮ‬ ، ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫أھﺪاف‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫أو‬ ‫اﻟﺰﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬ . ‫ب‬ – ‫اﻟﺘﮭﺪﻳﺪات‬ : ‫واﻟﺘﻲ‬ ، ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺣﺼﻮﻟﮭﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫اﻷﺣﺪاث‬ ‫ھﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ً‫ﺳﻠﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺆﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﻓﺴﻮف‬ ‫ﺣﺼﻠﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫إذا‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺴ‬ ‫دﺧﻮل‬ ‫ﻣﺜﻞ‬ ، ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫أداء‬ ‫ﯿﻦ‬ ‫أذو‬ ‫ﺗﻐﯿﺮ‬ ‫وﻣﺜﻞ‬ ، ‫اﻟﻤﻮردﻳﻦ‬ ‫أو‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﺪى‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻔﺎوض‬ ‫ﻗﻮة‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮ‬ ‫أو‬ ، ‫ﺟﺪد‬ ‫اق‬ ، ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﻠﻜﯿﻦ‬ ...
‫ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ SWOT : ‫إن‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬ ‫اﻷرﺑﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿ‬ ‫ﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺮ‬ ‫دﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺌﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ‬ ) ‫اﻟﻔﺮص‬ ‫واﻟﺘﮭﺪﻳﺪات‬ ( ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫أﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬ ‫اﻹدارة‬ ‫اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ) ‫اﻟﻘﻮة‬ ‫واﻟﻀﻌﻒ‬ ( ، ‫وﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺿﻮء‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﺒﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﻨﺎ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﮭﺎ‬ . ‫وﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﺨﯿﺺ‬ ‫ھﺬه‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت‬ ً‫طﺒﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻶﺗﻲ‬ : ‫أ‬ – ‫اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت‬ ‫ھﺠﻮﻣﯿﺔ‬ : ‫وﺗﮭﺪف‬ ‫ﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼل‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺮص‬ ، ‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪ‬ ‫وﺟﻮد‬ ‫ﻓﺮص‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺎﺣ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎط‬ ‫ﻗﻮة‬ ‫ﻛﺒﯿﺮة‬ . ‫ب‬ – ‫اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت‬ ‫ﻋﻼﺟﯿﺔ‬ : ‫وﺗﮭﺪف‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺼﺤﯿﺢ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎط‬ ‫اﻟﻀﻌﻒ‬ ‫اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻨ‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫وﺟﻮد‬ ‫ﻓﺮص‬ ‫ﻛﺒﯿﺮة‬ ‫ﻻﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫إﺳﺘﻐﻼﻟﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﺒﺐ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎط‬ ‫اﻟﻀﻌﻒ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة‬ . ‫ﺟـ‬ - ‫إﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت‬ ‫دﻓﺎﻋﯿﺔ‬ : ‫وﺗﮭﺪف‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺪﻓﺎع‬ ‫ﺿﺪ‬ ‫أﺧﻄﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﺘﮭﺪﻳﺪات‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺤﯿﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ، ‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻓﺮ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎط‬ ‫ﻗﻮة‬ ‫وﺑﻮﺟﻮد‬ ‫ﺗﮭﺪﻳﺪات‬ ‫ﻣﺤﯿﻄﺔ‬ . ‫د‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫إﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت‬ ‫إﻧﻜﻤﺎﺷﯿﺔ‬ : ‫وﺗﮭﺪف‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻘﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﮭﺪﻳﺪات‬ ‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ‬ ‫وﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻘ‬ ‫ﺎط‬ ‫اﻟﻀﻌﻒ‬ ‫اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ‬ .
‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫ﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر‬ SOWT ‫ﺗﺤﺼﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﻼزﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺮض‬ ‫اﺟﺮاء‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺮص‬ ‫واﻟﺘﮭﺪﻳﺪات‬ ‫وﻧﻮاﺣﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﻮة‬ ‫واﻟﻀﻌﻒ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺤﺚ‬ ‫واﻟﺘﻘﺼﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴ‬ ‫ﻤﺎة‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺢ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺌﻲ‬ ، ‫اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﺠﺐ‬ ‫ان‬ ‫ﺗﺘﺼﻒ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﻳﺔ‬ ، ‫وﺗﻌﺪد‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎ‬ ‫درھﺎ‬ ، ‫وﻣﻘﺎطﻌﺘﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫اﻛﺜﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﮭﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﮭﺪف‬ ‫اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‬ ‫اﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬ ‫وﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗﺖ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ . ‫ﻋﻠﻤﺎ‬ ‫ان‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺢ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺌﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮن‬ ‫ﻋﻦ‬ ‫طﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﻗﺴ‬ ‫ﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺘﺺ‬ ‫ﺑﺬﻟﻚ‬ ‫او‬ ‫ﻋﻦ‬ ‫طﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫اﻓﺮاد‬ ‫ﺧﺒﺮاء‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫واﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬ ‫ﻣﮭﻤﺘﮭﻢ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻊ‬ ‫وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬ ‫وﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺛﻢ‬ ‫ﺗﺰوﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺨﺬ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺮار‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗ‬ ‫ﯿﺠﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﮭﺎ‬ . ‫ﻳﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫أﻳﻀﺎ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬ ‫أﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‬ ‫ﻟﻐﺮض‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺼﻮل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮ‬ ‫ﻣﺎت‬ ‫ﻏﯿﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮة‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﯿﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻘﺮاء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫واﻻﺳﺘﺪاﻻ‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫أﻧﻤﺎط‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻮﻛﯿﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﯿﻦ‬ .
‫ﻻھﺘﻤﺎﻣﻜﻢ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﺮا‬

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