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C3.pptx

  1. INTRODUCTION TO INDUSTRY AND COMPANY ANALYSIS 1
  2. INTRODUCTION  Industry analysis is the analysis of a specific branch of manufacturing, service, or trade.  Understanding the industry in which a company operates provides an essential framework for the analysis of the individual company—that is, company analysis. 2
  3. USES OF INDUSTRY ANALYSIS  Understanding a company’s business and business environment.  Identifying active equity investment opportunities.  Portfolio performance attribution. 3
  4. APPROACHES TO IDENTIFYING SIMILAR COMPANIES  Industry classification attempts to place companies into groups on the basis of commonalities.  Three major approaches to industry classification:  Products and/or services supplied;  Business-cycle sensitivities; and  Statistical similarities. 4
  5. PRODUCTS AND/OR SERVICES SUPPLIED  Modern classification schemes are most commonly based on grouping companies by similar products and/or services.  An industry is defined as a group of companies offering similar products and/or services.  Or that are close substitutes for one another.  Industry classification schemes typically provide multiple levels of aggregation. The term sector is often used to refer to a group of related industries. 5
  6. PRODUCTS AND/OR SERVICES SUPPLIED  These classification schemes typically place a company in an industry on the basis of a determination of its principal business activity.  A company’s principal business activity is the source from which the company derives a majority of its revenues and/or earnings.  Examples of classification systems based on products and/or services include the commercial classification systems, namely, the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), Russell Global Sectors (RG S), and Industry Classification Benchmark. 6
  7. BUSINESS-CYCLE SENSITIVITIES 7  Companies are sometimes grouped on the basis of their relative sensitivity to the business cycle.  This method often results in two broad groupings of companies—cyclical and non-cyclical.  A cyclical company is one whose profits are strongly correlated with the strength of the overall economy.  A non-cyclical company is one whose performance is largely independent of the business cycle. Non-cyclical companies produce goods or services for which demand remains relatively stable throughout the business cycle.
  8. DESCRIPTIONS RELATED TO THE CYCLICAL/NONCYCLICAL DISTINCTION 8  Non-cyclical industries have sometimes been sorted into defensive (or stable) versus growth.  Defensive industries and companies are those whose revenues and profits are least affected by fluctuations in overall economic activity.  Growth industries would include industries with specific demand dynamics that are so strong that they override the significance of broad economic or other external factors and generate growth regardless of overall economic conditions, although their rates of growth may slow during an economic downturn.
  9. STATISTICAL SIMILARITIES  Statistical approaches to grouping companies are typically based on the correlations of past securities’ returns.  Using the technique known as cluster analysis, companies are separated (on the basis of historical correlations of stock returns) into groups in which correlations are relatively high but between which correlations are relatively low.  Statistical approaches rely on historical data, but analysts have no guarantee that past correlation values will continue in the future. 9
  10. INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS 10  Commercial Industry Classification Systems  Global Industry Classification Standard  Russell Global Sectors  Industry Classification Benchmark
  11. DESCRIPTION OF REPRESENTATIVE SECTORS 11  Basic Materials and Processing  Consumer Discretionary  Consumer Staples  Energy  Financial Services  Health Care  Industrial/Producer Durables  Technology  Telecommunications  Utilities
  12. GOVERNMENTAL INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS  A common goal of each government classification system is to facilitate the comparison of data—both over time and among countries that use the same system.  International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities  Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community  Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification  North American Industry Classification System 12
  13. STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF CURRENT SYSTEMS  Unlike commercial classification systems, most government systems do not disclose information about a specific business or company, so an analyst cannot know all of the constituents of a particular category.  Commercial classification systems are adjusted more frequently than government classification systems, which may be updated only every five years.  Government classification systems generally do not distinguish between small and large businesses, between for- profit and not-for-profit organizations, or between public and private companies.  Another limitation of current systems is that the narrowest classification unit assigned to a company generally cannot be assumed to be its peer group for the purposes of detailed fundamental comparisons or valuation. 13
  14. CONSTRUCTING A PEER GROUP 14  A peer group is a group of companies engaged in similar business activities whose economics and valuation are influenced by closely related factors.  One approach to constructing a peer group is to start by identifying other companies operating in the same industry.  An analyst can then investigate the business activities of these companies and make adjustments as necessary to ensure that the businesses truly are comparable.
  15. STEPS IN CONSTRUCTING A PRELIMINARY LIST OF PEER COMPANIES 15  Examine commercial classification systems, if available to the analyst.  Review the subject company’s annual report. Companies frequently cite specific competitors.  Review competitors’ annual reports to identify other potential comparable companies.  Review industry trade publications to identify comparable companies.  Confirm that each comparable company derives a significant portion of its revenue and operating profit from a business activity similar to the primary business of the subject company.
  16. DESCRIBING AND ANALYZING AN INDUSTRY  In their work, analysts study statistical relationships between industry trends and a range of economic and business variables.  Analysts attempt to develop practical, reliable industry forecasts by using various approaches to forecasting.  Investment managers and analysts also examine industry performance  in relation to other industries to identify industries with superior/inferior returns and  over time to determine the degree of consistency, stability, and risk in the returns in the industry over time. 16
  17. DESCRIBING AND ANALYZING AN INDUSTRY  Often, analysts examine strategic groups (groups sharing distinct business models or catering to specific market segments in an industry) almost as separate industries within industries.  Analysts often consider and classify industries according to industry life-cycle stage.  The experience curve shows direct cost per unit of good or service produced or delivered as a typically declining function of cumulative output. 17
  18. DESCRIBING AND ANALYZING AN INDUSTRY  The experience curve declines  because as the utilization of capital equipment increases, fixed costs (administration, overhead, advertising, etc.) are spread over a larger number of units of production,  because of improvements in labor efficiency and management of facilities, and  because of advances in production methods and product design. 18
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  20. PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGIC ANALYSIS  Analysis of the competitive environment with an emphasis on the implications of the environment for corporate strategy is known as strategic analysis.  When analyzing an industry, the analyst must recognize that the economic fundamentals can vary markedly among industries.  Differing competitive environments are often tied to the structural attributes of an industry, which is one reason industry analysis is a vital complement to company analysis.  As analysts examine the competitive structure of an industry, they should always be thinking about what attributes could change in the future. 20
  21. PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGIC ANALYSIS  Porter (2008) identified the following five determinants of the intensity of competition in an industry:  threat of entry  power of suppliers  power of buyers  threat of substitutes  rivalry among existing competitors 21
  22. THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS AND THE LEVEL OF COMPETITION IN AN INDUSTRY  Barriers to Entry  Industry Concentration  Industry Capacity  Market Share Stability  Industry Life Cycle 22
  23. INDUSTRY LIFE CYCLE  Embryonic  Growth  Shakeout  Mature  Decline 23
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  25. USING AN INDUSTRY LIFE-CYCLE MODEL  New industries tend to be more competitive (with lots of players entering and exiting) than mature industries, which often have stable competitive environments and players that are more interested in protecting what they have than in gaining lots of market share.  However, as industries move from maturity to decline, competitive pressures may increase again as industry participants perceive a zero-sum environment and fight over pieces of an ever- shrinking pie. 25
  26. USING AN INDUSTRY LIFE-CYCLE MODEL  An important point for the analyst to think about is whether a company is “acting its age” relative to where its industry sits in the life cycle.  Companies in mature industries are likely to be pursuing replacement demand rather than new buyers and are probably focused on extending successful product lines rather than introducing revolutionary new products. 26
  27. LIMITATIONS OF INDUSTRY LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS  The evolution of an industry does not always follow a predictable pattern.  Various external factors may significantly affect the shape of the pattern, causing some stages to be longer or shorter than expected and, in certain cases, causing some stages to be skipped altogether.  Technological changes may cause an industry to experience an abrupt shift from growth to decline, thus skipping the shakeout and mature stages. 27
  28. LIMITATIONS OF INDUSTRY LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS  Regulatory changes can also have a profound impact on the structure of an industry.  Social changes also have the ability to affect the profile of an industry.  Demographics also play an important role.  Thus, life-cycle models tend to be most useful for analyzing industries during periods of relative stability.  Another limiting factor of models is that not all companies in an industry experience similar performances. 28
  29. PRICE COMPETITION  A highly useful tool for analyzing an industry is attempting to think like a customer of the industry.  Whatever factor most influences customer purchase decisions is likely to also be the focus of competitive rivalry in the industry.  Switching can be expected as a result of a unilateral price increase in the case of most industries in the “Weak Pricing Power”. 29
  30. ELEMENTS OF A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FOR INDUSTRIES 30  Major Companies  Barriers to Entry/Success  Level of Concentration  Impact of Industry Capacity  Industry Stability  Life Cycle  Price Competition  Demographic Influences  Government & Regulatory Influences  Social Influences  Technological Influences  Growth vs. Defensive vs. Cyclical
  31. EXTERNAL INFLUENCES ON INDUSTRY GROWTH, PROFITABILITY, AND RISK  Macroeconomic Influences  Technological Influences  Demographic Influences  Governmental Influences  Social Influences 31
  32. COMPANY ANALYSIS  Company analysis includes an analysis of the company’s financial position, products and/or services, and competitive strategy (its plans for responding to the threats and opportunities presented by the external environment).  Company analysis takes place after the analyst has gained an understanding of a company’s external environment  the macroeconomic,  demographic,  governmental,  technological, and  social forces influencing the industry’s competitive structure. 32
  33. COMPANY ANALYSIS  Porter identifies two chief competitive strategies:  a low-cost strategy (cost leadership) and  a product/service differentiation strategy. 33
  34. ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD BE COVERED IN A COMPANY ANALYSIS  Provide an overview of the company (corporate profile), including a basic understanding of its businesses, investment activities, corporate governance, and perceived strengths and weaknesses;  Explain relevant industry characteristics;  Analyze the demand for the company’s products and services;  Analyze the supply of products and services, which includes an analysis of costs;  Explain the company’s pricing environment; and  Present and interpret relevant financial ratios, including comparisons over time and comparisons with competitors. 34
  35. SELF STUDY  Exhibit 8 A Checklist for Company Analysis 35
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