5. Extraction horizons of phosphorus At higher energy price: ?? years 100 – 150 years At current energy price: Peak phosphorus
6.
7.
8. Balanced agriculture: Animals are fed with plants growing from their manure = about 80% recycling of nutrients PO 4 Feed Urine One hectare: Balanced agriculture
9. .. but 3-4 kg of the phosphorus (20%) is exported as food The 3-4 kg amounts to the P content of the excrements from 5 persons PO 4 Feed Urine Food Urine = 0,2 ha/pers One hectare: Limited group of people
10. .. these nutrients must be returned to close the cycle With source-separating toilets, these nutrients can be recycled PO 4 Feed Urine Food Urine PO 4 = 0,2 ha/pers One hectare: Local recycling system
14. Total energy investment: about 40.000 kWh / 4 pers Energy delivered to household: about 4.000 kWh/ 4 p. The energy economy of conventional food production Energy invested in agriculture: about 4.000 kWh/ 4 p. Energy invested by middlemen: about 36.000 kWh/ 4 p.
15. 60.000 SEK The economy of conventional food production 0 kr 15 000 kr 30 000 kr 60 000 kr Annual consumer cost for food (four person Swedish family) Payment to producer, less than 25% Trade, distribution and processing about 75% of the total price Producer cost (fuel, interests etc.) 80% of producer payment Producer salary, about 3.000 SEK (5% of consumer cost)
16. Assume a group of consumers subscribe for food from a local farmer
17. They will drive the industry out of the market by paying the double industrial price (half of the consumer price)
18. Expenses Salary Distribution and trade Because of the increased food diversity produced, the farmers’s expenses are assumed to increase with 50% ..but the remaining is the farmers salary, which will increase 400% The consumer cost for the food decrease with 50% 13.000 18.000 60.000 30.000 12.000 3.000 The economy of ecounit food production conventional ecounit 0 15 000 30 000 45 000 60 000
19. Total energy investment in food : about 8.000 kWh / 4 pers The energy economy of ecounit food production Energy invested in (conventional) agriculture: about 4.000 kWh/ 4 p. Energy invested local management: about 8.000 kWh/ 4 p.
20. Let’s hope that the consumers will use their saved money to invest in the agriculture… Cheaper food Saved money Lesser energy price vulnerability
21.
22. The ruralisation scenario – start point In this scenario, the following is assumed: 4. They decide that, i nstead of building new houses on the same place as the old ones were torn down, they will build eco-units in the periphery of the town. At start point, the centre of the municipality has a population of 33 000 The periphery: 3 000 1. The city is inhabited by decision-makers who have the capacity to make far-sighted and strategic decisions 3. Furthermore, they understand that the city is not static, but dynamic. Old houses are t orn down and new are built. (The average life-time for a house is supposed to be 60 years, which gives the city a rate of change of 1,6%) 2 . They have the same knowledge of limiting resources, ecology and the rules for long-term survival as you.
23. Ruralisation – after 12 years The town center: 24 000 The periphery : 12 000 Groups of four Eco-units Each group is inhabited by 800 people Local parks replacing the old houses
24. Ruralisation – after 25 years The town : 12 000 The periphery : 24 000 Reversed ditching: Underground streams are brought to the surface Cleaner water