Stanford CS22A March 8, 2018 AI for a Magnificent Future
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Lecture given in Jerry Kaplan's Stanford CS22A class on the Social and Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence
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Stanford CS22A March 8, 2018 AI for a Magnificent Future
- 1. AI for a Magnificent Future Steve Omohundro, Ph.D. PossibilityResearch.com SteveOmohundro.com SelfAwareSystems.com http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2015/06/inceptionism-going-deeper-into-neural.html
- 2. https://www.venturescanner.com/artificial-intelligence Venture Scanner: 2152 AI Startups $31.2 Billion
- 8. 1957: Rosenblatt’s “Perceptron” http://www.rutherfordjournal.org/article040101.html “The embryo of an electronic computer that [the Navy] expects will be able to walk, talk, see, write, reproduce itself and be conscious of its existence.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptron
- 9. 2007: Deep Learning Neural Nets http://www.nicta.com.au/content/uploads/2015/02/deep.jpg
- 10. 2012: Deep Learning Successes • 2009 Speech Recognition TIMIT: Cortana, Skype, Google Now, Siri, Baidu, Nuance, etc. • 2012 Image Recognition ImageNet • 2012 Drug Discovery Merck Challenge • 2013 Natural Language Sentiment • 2014 Image Captioning • 2014 Natural Language Translation • 2015 Atari Video Games DeepMind https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_learning
- 11. 2,700 Google Projects Use Deep Learning! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/why-2015-was-a-breakthrough-year-in-artificial-intelligence
- 12. http://cdn-media-1.lifehack.org/wp-content/files/2014/07/Cash.jpg McKinsey: AI and Robotics next 10 years $50 Trillion US GDP is $18 Trillion http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies
- 13. http://thismasquerade.me/wp-content/uploads/blogger/-84ftTg_azwY/Um8up3j4zTI/AAAAAAAABJ8/9_-dxg23UaY/s1600/9979402_ml.jpg AI Knowledge Work: $25 Trillion/10 years Marketing, ERP, Big Data, Smart Assistants
- 14. Internet of Things: $15 Trillion/10 years 100 Billion devices by 2025 Cars, Appliances, Cameras, Meters, Wearables, etc. https://www.summitbusiness.net/images/Internet.jpg http://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2014/08/22/internet-of-things-by-the-numbers-market-estimates-and-forecasts/
- 15. Robot Manufacturing: $10 Trillion to 2025 Work 24 hours/day No breaks, food, medical Don’t quit, get bored, get depressed Work anywhere Hazards OK Don’t leak secrets Work well with others Easy to replicate http://thisisrealmedia.com/2014/06/19/robotics-and-ethics-the-smart-car-by-ron-parlato/
- 16. Foxconn Technology Group • World’s largest contract manufacturer • Assembles 40% of all consumer electronics • iPhone, iPad, Kindle, Xbox, Playstation 4, etc. • 1.3 million employees, $8K salary • Employee suicides • “Foxbot” robots, cost $25K, 2nd generation now • Building 30K robots/year http://www.tomshardware.com/news/foxcponn-apple-iphone-ipad-robot,19088.html
- 17. Dec. 2015: Fanuc Deep Learning Robots http://australianroboticsreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Fanuc.jpg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-03/zero-to-expert-in-eight-hours-these-robots-can-learn-for-themselves Deep Learning to Bin Pick in 8 hours
- 18. 420 Chinese Robot Companies http://thestack.com/china-robot-market-overstimulated-291014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/china-robots-idUSL3N0RB2WX20141028
- 19. Self-Driving Vehicles: $10 Trillion by 2025 Disrupt Dealers, Insurance, Parking, Finance, Trucking, Taxis 10 million jobs http://zackkanter.com/2015/01/23/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-by-2025/ http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/28/5756852/googles-self-driving-car-isnt-a-car-its-the-future
- 20. https://osuwmcdigital.osu.edu/sitetool/sites/urologypublic/images/Robotics/robotic_surgery_table.jpg Health Care: $10 Trillion to 2025 Robot surgery, medical records, AI diagnosis
- 21. http://airwolf3d.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/3d-printer-v.5.5-airwolf3d1.jpg 3D Printing: $2 Trillion by 2025
- 22. US Building construction: $960 billion/yr 5.8 million employees http://www.aisrenovations.com/gallery/Gallery-Photo-1.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Construction
- 23. April 2014: Chinese WinSun 3D printed 10 houses, 2100 sq ft, $4800 http://m.newsru.co.il/realty/20jan2015/3d_house_i101.html
- 24. WinSun 3D printed 12,000 sq ft villa http://3dprint.com/38144/3d-printed-apartment-building/ US Building construction: $1 Trillion/yr 5.8 million employees
- 25. Drones: $98 Billion by 2025 Nov. 2015: Kespry and Nvidia Deep Learning for Drones http://mint-tek.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/commercialdronesforhire.jpg http://www.businessinsider.com/the-market-for-commercial-drones-2014-2 http://www.flybestdrones.com/best-5-drones-with-camera-under-50-dollars/
- 26. AI Economy AI Military AI Society Technological Unemployment Increasing Inequality Propaganda and Manipulation Lethal Autonomous Weapons Robot Terrorism Decreased Barriers to War Expanded Governance Expanded Laws Expanded Enforcement http://orig04.deviantart.net/d4fc/f/2016/071/d/e/circuit_board_by_xxaries1970xx-d9ut9nd.jpg
- 27. Maslow Hierarchy of Human Needs Self- Actualization Esteem Social Safety Physiological Self-Transcendance https://alchetron.com/Abraham-Maslow-1355192-W 1943
- 28. Technological Unemployment? Kai Fu Lee 50% in 10 years Eric Schmidt 0% http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/27/kai-fu-lee-robots-will-replace-half-of-all-jobs.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabets-eric-schmidt-takes-a-contrarian-stance-on-the-robot-revolution-2017-05-04
- 31. 7 Tesla Autopilot Accidents Summer 2016 https://www.quora.com/Have-there-been-any-Tesla-Motors-autopilot-road-accidents http://s1.cdn.autoevolution.com/images/news/first-tesla-model-s-crash-in-china-is-downright-painful-to-watch-photo-gallery-83839_1.jpg
- 32. Pedestrian Chicken https://medium.com/@mitchturck/self-driving-cars-and-sound-cannons-an-indecent-proposal-43ebf99fafc#.m648686fv http://www.siliconvalley.com/business/ci_29114891/driverless-google-car-stopped-traffic-violation-and-story "We jokingly play chicken with them when we're trying to cross the street," he said. "You see one about to make a right turn at a light, and they're obviously trying to decide if we're going to step into the street or not. It's so tempting to sort of step toward the curb, which makes the car stop instantly and wait for you to go, except you don't go. "We're just messing with it," he said, "to see what it'll do.” – Zandr Milewski
- 34. https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/01/07/tv_anchor_says_alexa_buy_me_a_dollhouse_and_she_does/ Alexa Orders Viral Dollhouses!
- 35. Humans “Synthie” Subculture https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6V0xwxWgAA-Q9W.jpg:largehttp://www.tvguide.com/news/humans-amc-preview-william-hurt-gemma-chan/ Kids with Bot Personality?
- 36. 2010: Trillion Dollar Flash Crash http://www.nanex.net/20100506/PercDrop1.png Dow Industrials lost 9% in 36 minutes Today: 50% of trades are automated HFT
- 38. Deep Learning Neurofeedback VR Porn https://webby-gallery-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/asset/image/entry-asset-10354/3020000000161110.jpg Ultimate Ecstatic Experience? End of the Human Race? Better Than Sex?
- 41. http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2015/06/inceptionism-going-deeper-into-neural.html June 2015: Google Deep Dream
- 42. https://research.googleblog.com/2016/02/exploring-intersection-of-art-and.html 2016: Deep Learning Style Transfer https://no2147483647.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/deep-learning-for-hackers-with-mxnet-2/
- 43. Deep Neural Net CycleGAN https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9reHvktowLY&ab_channel=Jun-YanZhu
- 44. Faces from Deep GAN Networks https://blog.heuritech.com/2017/04/11/began-state-of-the-art-generation-of-faces-with-generative-adversarial-networks/
- 49. Interest in “Fake News”
- 51. Deceivers vs. Fraud Detectors Who wins? Cryptographically secure pseudorandom number generators: Much cheaper to generate random looking bits Than to detect that they aren’t random http://slideplayer.com/slide/8866865/26/images/30/Cryptographic+Hash+Functions+SHA-512+Logic.jpg
- 53. http://curatedai.com/ Fish fish away you like those long black houses where her branches roll where flowers hang bare water there for gold trees upon heaven about some air before thee an emerald world among water but her shadow there like their bright eye seems near Deep Gimble II is a Recurrent Neural Net, trained on public domain poetry. AI Poetry?
- 55. Maslow Hierarchy Self- Actualization Esteem Social Safety Physiological Self-Transcendance Technological Abundance Elimination of Drudgery Peace Through Smart Contracts Tools for Thriving Human Connection Tools for Creativity Tools for Beauty Networks of Inspiration https://i.imgur.com/nxBWT4A.jpg Tools for Contribution Dystopia Utopia Inequality, Scarcity Technological Unemployment Robot Warfare Cyber-Terrorism Social Disconnection VR Porn Human Obsolescence Addiction Greed Manipulated Meaning
- 57. https://twitter.com/kcimc/status/664217437840257024/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Open Source Toolkits
- 58. https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/tensorflow-smarter-machine-learning-for.html https://www.linkedin.com/company/toobler Google and Microsoft Open Source Toolkits
- 59. http://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2015/03/17/digits-devbox/ http://timdettmers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/gpu-pic.jpg Deep Learning Hardware NVIDIA GPUs AMD GPUs FPGAs Intel ConvNet core Movidius: embedded Mobileye: automotive Orcam: low power vision Qualcomm: mobile Samsung: mobile Teradeep: startup Nervana: startup
- 60. Cloud: Oracle, Google, Microsoft, Amazon http://googlecloudplatform.blogspot.com/2015/12/Google-Cloud-Vision-API-changes-the-way-applications-understand-images.html http://www.slideshare.net/Azure4Research/azure-ml-webinarjuly2014 http://www.pyimagesearch.com/2014/10/13/deep-learning-amazon-ec2-gpu-python-nolearn/ https://blogs.oracle.com/cloud-infrastructure/oracle-nvidia-collaborate-cloud-compute-offerings
- 61. Serial Bugs Memory Leaks,Dangling Pointers, Conversion Errors http://orig04.deviantart.net/d4fc/f/2016/071/d/e/circuit_board_by_xxaries1970xx-d9ut9nd.jpg Parallel Bugs Security Bugs Hardware Bugs Machine Learning Bugs AI Goal Bugs AI Governance Bugs Collective AI Bugs Deadlocks, Race Conditions Bad Encryption, Buffer Overflow Rowhammer, Drammer, Instruction Cache Leaks Adversarial Examples, Inscrutable Behavior Unintended Consequences, Basic AI Drives Loopholes, Manipulations Crashes, Long Tails, Black Swans
- 62. The Three Constraints on AIs • Mathematics • Physics • Cryptography http://www.dreamstime.com/royalty-free-stock-photography-wooden-puzzle-image7733587
- 63. The Power of Physics • Seth Lloyd, “Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation” • Margolus-Levitin theorem • Entire visible universe: 10^92 bits of storage 10^122 operations • The whole universe as a quantum computer can’t search 500 bits http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Hubble_view_of_barred_spiral_galaxy_Messier_83.jpg kdlIW5Ljlspn/zV4DIlsw3Kasdjh0kdfuKR4+Q3KofOr83LfLJ8Eidie83ldhgLEe0GlsiwcdO90SknlLsDd http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043
- 64. The Power of Cryptography Post-Quantum Cryptography Zero-knowledge Proofs Indistinguishability Obfuscation Secure Multi-party computation Bitcoin Blockchain Energy Encryption
- 65. Governing Autonomous Systems Internal: Prosocial values External: Laws, Police, Economic Incentives https://www.flickr.com/photos/waltstoneburner/2863583929/
- 66. Trusted Infrastructure • Constrained AIs • Trusted computation • Trusted communication • Trusted identity • Privacy and safety monitoring guarantees • Trusted money • Trusted reputation • Trusted voting • Trusted energy flows • Trusted manufacturinghttps://www.flickr.com/photos/sanchtv/4192677571/in/photostream/
- 67. 2008: Cryptocurrencies • Bitcoin and 511 Altcoins • Decentralized consensus • “Blockchain” ledger prevents double spending • “Bitcoin miners” get paid for adding blocks • “Proof of work” prevents “Sybil” attacks • Current market cap: $166B http://blog.newegg.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/bitcoin-logo-3d.jpg
- 68. 2015: Smart Contracts • Ethereum • “Blockchain with a built-in programming language” • “Consensus-based globally executed virtual machine” • Contracts in Turing complete programming language EVM • Summer 2014 presold more than $18 million Ether • “Decentralized Autonomous Organizations” (DAOs) • “TheDAO” disaster – $54M theft http://francebitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Ethereum.png
- 69. Smart Contracts and AI AIs enable smart contract: • Perception • Action • Dispute resolution • Design • Constraints Smart contracts constrain Robots and AIs: • AI legal framework • Self-enforcing structures http://www.trbimg.com/img-50fe0287/turbine/ct-biz-0122-baxter1.jpg-20130121/600
- 70. The Future Looks Bright! • $50 Trillion of value! • Need governance! • Need new ideas! • Need new methods! • Need AI startups! https://spiritualmusclehead.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/justice.jpg