The Future of Bioenergy in
Urban Energy Systems
Brussels
Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw
8-Nov-16

© ECOFYS | |
Agenda
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw
> Opening
> Presentation of Urban Electrification study
> Brainstorm about challenges on bioenergy
> Presentations on bioenergy
> Break
> Round table discussion
> Wrap up and closure
13:30
13:40
14:00
14:15
14:45
15:15
16:15
2

© ECOFYS | |
> Opening
> Presentation of Urban Electrification study
> Brainstorm about challenges on bioenergy
> Presentations on bioenergy
> Break
> Round table discussion
> Wrap up and closure
Agenda
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw3

© ECOFYS | |
Opening
> The future urban energy systems can move to directions in which bioenergy will
play a key role, for example as fuel for space heating, for (back-up) electricity
generation, and for mobility (biofuels).
> A competitive deployment of bioenergy requires sufficient availability of biomass and
acceptable costs. As result of the uncertainty in the price developments of bioenergy,
the view on the future is uncertain as well.
> Also in the recent study "Urban electrification - impact of electrification of urban
infrastructure on costs and carbon footprint" results were strongly dependent on
assumptions on the availability and costs for bioenergy.
> We would like to sketch the landscape of bioenergy in relation to the urban energy
system and develop a joint view on bioenergy availability and cost.
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw4

© ECOFYS | |
> Opening
> Presentation of Urban Electrification study
> Brainstorm about challenges on bioenergy
> Presentations on bioenergy
> Break
> Round table discussion
> Wrap up and closure
Agenda
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw5

© ECOFYS | |
Introduction
Background and objectives
> The Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050. envisages
reductions in GHG emissions of 88-91% for the residential sector, 54-67% for the
transport sector and 93-99% for the power sector.
> In urban areas existing stocks and infrastructure needs to be transformed into a low
carbon energy system, requiring clear strategies and long term planning.
> The study explored potential trajectories in the development of the energy
infrastructure of cities towards a low carbon system with a specific view to
possibilities and impact of a decarbonisation of the energy system through
electrification.
> The study took a holistic view on the energy system by:
– Including energy demand and supply;
– Assessing various options for grid- and non-grid connected supply;
– Comparing system costs.
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw6

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Methodology
Approach
> Several scenarios have been developed and assessed for a virtual city.
– Model calculation starts with functional demand profiles, which combined with
scenario parameters and technology parameter result in energy demand profiles
– System costs calculation is based on costs for buildings, transport, distribution and
energy
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw7
Electricity, gas and district
heat demand profiles
Total costs
Peak demand Total demand Emissions
Heat demand profiles
Transport demand
profiles
Other demand profiles
Building costs Distribution costs Energy costsTransport costs
Functional demand profiles
Energy demand profiles
Energy and emissions
Scenario parameters
System costs

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Methodology
Scenarios
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw8
> Reference year is 2050
> High ambition level, resulting in 85%
CO2 reduction compared to 2015
> Current (number, insulation grade,
technology mix, living areas) and future
building stock (number, insulation
grade)
> Costs (buildings, infrastructure, power
generation)
> Demand profiles
> Penetration of add-on technologies
– Solar domestic hot water
– Solar PV
> Heating technology mix
– Gas-fired boiler
– Biogas-fired boiler
– Air source heat pump
– Ground source heat pump
– Hybrid heat pump
– District heating
> Transport fuel mix
> Penetration of add-on technologies
– Building automation
– Storage
Basic assumptions Scenario parameters

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Methodology
Scenarios
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw9
> The heating technology and transport technology scenarios are characterized by
an increasing share of electricity.
> The scenarios investigated in the study are combinations of heating technology
scenarios and transport technology scenarios: biofuels, mix, heat pumps and all
electric
Heating technology shares
60%
40%
20%
0%
100%
80%
H4H3H2H1R
Ground source heat pump
Hybrid heat pump
Air source heat pump
Biogas-fired boiler
District heating
Gas-fired boiler
Transport technology shares
40%
20%
0%
100%
80%
60%
T2T1R
Electricity
Biofuels
Conventional fuels

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Results
Energy and Emissions
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw10
> In each of the scenarios, deep
renovation of residential buildings
results in functional heat demand
reductions around 50%.
> Efficiency improvement result in
final energy demand reductions up
to 80%.
> Demand reduction and
decarbonisation of the energy
supply and results in emission
reductions of 85%.
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1,400
1,200
-81%
All-electric
Heatpumps
Mix
Biofuel
Reference
Energydemand(GWh)
Annual energy demand
Heat
Gas
Electricity
Fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Emissions(ktCO2)
-85%
All-electric
Heatpumps
Mix
Biofuel
Reference
Annual emissions

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Results
Demand side management and storage
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Demandsidemanagement
Storage

 

Profile (kW)
Peakdemand
(kW)
0
1
2
3
4
-30%-25%
Effect of demand side management and storage
0
1
2
3
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
1
2
3
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Days
0
1
2
3
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7



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Results
Economic effects
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw12
> Achieving strong emission reduction through deep renovation together with
the deployment of low carbon heating technologies requires substantial
investments in buildings, transport, distribution infrastructure and power
generation.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Annualcosts(M€)
Biofuel Mix Heat
pumps
All-electric
Annual system costs
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Heat
pumps
Mix
Annualcostsperhousehold(€)
Biofuel All-electric
Energy
Buildings
Transport
Infrastructure

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Conclusions and Key messages
> Any path for decarbonisation will involve additional investments for demand
reduction through deep renovation, for the transformation of the energy distribution
system, and for the decarbonisation on the energy supply.
> Strategic infrastructural choices must be made at the appropriate level and the choice
between scenarios should also be driven by avoiding risks
> Decabonisation scenarios will impact the local economies positively.
> The future urban energy systems can move to directions in which bioenergy will
play a key role, for example as fuel for space heating, for (back-up) electricity
generation, and for mobility (biofuels).
> A competitive deployment of bioenergy requires sufficient availability of biomass and
acceptable costs. As result of the uncertainty in the price developments of bioenergy,
the view on the future is uncertain as well.
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw13

© ECOFYS | |
> Opening
> Presentation of Urban Electrification study
> Brainstorm about challenges on bioenergy
> Presentations on bioenergy
> Break
> Round table discussion
> Wrap up and closure
Agenda
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw14

© ECOFYS | |
> Opening
> Presentation of Urban Electrification study
> Brainstorm about challenges on bioenergy
> Presentations on bioenergy
> Break
> Round table discussion
> Wrap up and closure
Agenda
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw15

© ECOFYS | |
> Opening
> Presentation of Urban Electrification study
> Brainstorm about challenges on bioenergy
> Presentations on bioenergy
> Break
> Round table discussion
> Wrap up and closure
Agenda
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw16

© ECOFYS | |
> Opening
> Presentation of Urban Electrification study
> Brainstorm about challenges on bioenergy
> Presentations on bioenergy
> Break
> Round table discussion
> Wrap up and closure
Agenda
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw17

© ECOFYS | |
Round table discussion
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw18
Which types of bioenergy carriers are most suitable in the
urban energy system?

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Round table discussion
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw19
What could be the availability of those bioenergy carriers?

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Round table discussion
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw20
What would be typical costs per type of resource and what
are the drivers and uncertainties?

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Round table discussion
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw21
What is the role of policy in the cost development of
bioenergy and how can the cost gap be bridged?

© ECOFYS | |
> Opening
> Presentation of Urban Electrification study
> Brainstorm about challenges on bioenergy
> Presentations on bioenergy
> Break
> Round table discussion
> Wrap up and closure
Agenda
8-Nov-16 Carlo Hamelinck & Wouter Terlouw22