The Need and Necessity of an EU-wide Renewable Energy Target for 2030

DISCUSSION PAPER
THE NEED AND NECESSITY OF AN EU-WIDE
RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET FOR 2030
Rolf de Vos, Thomas Winkel, Corinna Klessmann, Ecofys
April 2013
ECI Publication No Cu0186
Available from www.leonardo-energy.org

Publication No Cu0186
Issue Date: April 2013
Page i
Document Issue Control Sheet
Document Title: Discussion Paper - The Need and Necessity of an EU-wide
Renewable Energy Target for 2030
Publication No: Cu0186
Issue: 01
Release: Public
Author(s): Rolf de Vos, Thomas Winkel, Corinna Klessmann, Ecofys
Reviewer(s):
Document History
Issue Date Purpose
1 Apr 2013 Initial public release.
2
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Disclaimer
While this publication has been prepared with care, European Copper Institute and other contributors provide
no warranty with regards to the content and shall not be liable for any direct, incidental or consequential
damages that may result from the use of the information or the data contained.
Copyright© European Copper Institute & Ecofys.
Reproduction is authorised providing the material is unabridged and the source is acknowledged.

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CONTENTS
Setting the scene: the debate on a post-2020 low-carbon policy portfolio is heating up......................................1
Defining 2030 energy and climate targets ...............................................................................................2
Why Europe needs renewable energy targets .......................................................................................................2
Two 2030 target portfolios are most prominent in the European debate.............................................................4
Case A: EU carbon target; EU-wide and binding national targets for renewable energy .......................5
Case B: EU decarbonisation target only, voluntary national renewables targets ...................................6
Aligning renewables targets with other energy and climate targets .....................................................................7
Required ranges of ambitions.................................................................................................................................7
Renewable electrification.......................................................................................................................................9
Conclusions...........................................................................................................................................................10
Recommendations................................................................................................................................................11

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The need and necessity of an EU-wide
renewable energy target for 2030
In 2020, some leading EU energy and climate policies will expire. At present, the EU and its Member States are
discussing the design of a post-2020 policy portfolio regarding greenhouse gas emissions and low-carbon energy.
The central question is: which portfolio provides the most cost-efficient pathways towards a low-carbon energy
system by 2050? This paper addresses the need and necessity of an EU-wide renewable energy target for 2030.
It analyses the two most viable portfolio options for renewable energy, target-setting in particular: one
‘decarbonisation-only’ EU target with voluntary national targets for renewable energy, and one that includes an
EU-wide renewable energy target, broken down into binding national targets. The analysis shows that the latter
option, when supported by appropriate and improved EU and Member States’ policies and measures, is most
suitable in facilitating a European low-carbon economy while keeping energy costs for industry and society at
sustainable levels.
SETTING THE SCENE: THE DEBATE ON A POST-2020 LOW-CARBON POLICY PORTFOLIO IS
HEATING UP
Currently, EU policies regarding climate change and energy are collected in the EU Climate and Energy Package,
also known as the Climate Action or ‘20-20-20’ package: 20% greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction, 20%
reduction in primary energy compared to baseline developments and a 20% share of renewables in energy
demand, all by 2020. Climate Action expires in 2020, except for some elements such as the emissions cap of the
EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which is set to decrease by 1.74% beyond 2020. The EU also has the
ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% in 2050, compared to 1990, and limit global warming
to 2°C.
Most Directives in the package foresee a post-2020 update, ultimately by 2018. However, many stakeholders—
not in the least the European Commission itself—are urging to have earlier clarity on post-2020 targets and
policies. Investors need security and reduced regulatory risk as investment cycles are long. Also, clarifying the
objectives for 2030 will support continuous progress towards a competitive low-carbon economy and a diverse
and secure energy system. It will continue creating demand for efficient and low-carbon technologies, propelling
research, development and innovation. This creates new opportunities and economic growth.
Pathways for reaching the EU 2050 carbon target have been explored in the 2050 Roadmaps published by the
European Commission in 2011 (on the low-carbon economy and on energy). Meanwhile, almost 200 countries
within the UN framework of the climate change convention (UNFCCC) agreed to aim at international post-2020
agreements by 2015 (only two years from now).
An EU greenhouse gas emissions target for 2030 and beyond, with the Emissions Trading System (ETS) as the
main instrument, receives broad consensus. The debate now is primarily about the need to substantiate a carbon
target by specific renewables and energy efficiency targets. Some stakeholders and Member States prefer a
decarbonisation target only, while others argue in favour of a 3-target package: for carbon, renewable energy
and energy efficiency.

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DEFINING 2030 ENERGY AND CLIMATE TARGETS
In the light of these backgrounds, we aim to answer the central questions:
 Which portfolio for 2030 would be most effective in driving the objectives of climate and energy policy?
 Why do we need specific renewable energy targets?
 At what level should renewable energy targets apply (EU, Member States)?
 What level of ambition is needed?
This paper analyses and explains the need for specific renewable energy targets for 2030. The analysis provides
evidence why specific renewable energy targets and supporting policies are inevitable and required,
complementary to an overarching greenhouse gas emissions reduction framework.
WHY EUROPE NEEDS RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS
There are a number of arguments that would favour specific renewable energy targets and policies,
complementary to targets and policies for greenhouse gas emissions and energy efficiency.
Renewables are the backbone of decarbonisation
Greenhouse gas emissions targets of any ambition will require the increase of renewable energy capacity. Most
scenarios show that cost-optimisation will lead to renewable energy sources to become the dominant
technology for emissions reduction. For example, the Impact Assessment of the EU Energy Roadmap (leading to
80-95% emissions reduction in 2050) shows that the optimal share of renewable energy (in gross final energy
consumption) in the EU will range from 55 to 75% in 2050 (28 to 31% in 2030). Other scenarios show more
ambition, with targets ranging from respectively 41%1
, to 42% and 48%2
renewable energy in 2030 (also see
section Required ranges of ambition). Renewable energy targets and policies are needed as signal of political
commitment and for investment certainty in order to encourage sufficient investments in renewable energy
(which are usually capital intensive and have long cycles).
National targets policies trigger local action
National renewable energy policies and targets are the umbrella over many existing local initiatives. Especially
in the last decade, many national, regional and local initiatives have brought renewable energy systems closer
to the market and the public. For instance, many municipalities and cities want to become ‘climate-neutral’ or
‘energy-neutral’ in the next decades.
High renewable energy shares have economic and other benefits
High renewable energy shares have economic and other benefits: for the environment (air quality), diversity and
security of the energy supply3
. The Impact Assessment of the Energy Roadmap 2050 confirms that energy
security and employment improve in scenarios with higher shares or renewables, while energy system costs are
comparable in all decarbonisation scenarios, and even lower than in a business-as-usual scenario. Meeting the
20% renewable energy target by 2020 is already estimated to create around 410,000 net additional jobs in the
1 Ecofys (2013) Renewable energy: a 2030 scenario for the EU. By the order of WWF – EPO. Available online at:
http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2013-renewable-energy-2030-scenario-for-the-eu.pdf
2 EREC (2012) 45% by 2030. Towards a truly sustainable energy system in the EU. Available online at:
http://www.erec.org/media/publications/45-by-2030.html
3 Import dependency is reduced to 35% in 2050 in the high RES scenario in the 2050 Energy Roadmap of the European Commission (compared to 40% in case of
a decarbonisation target only).

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EU4
. The related total gross added value of the renewable energy sector in the EU in 2020 would amount to a
substantial 99 to 129 billion EUR (0.8-1.1% of total GDP).
Creation of business opportunities
Renewable energy targets and policies support business in the supply chain, in manufacturing and in services.
Development of these domestic industries in the field of renewable energy is often the starting point for broader
business and international trade5
.
End-user prices are expected to increase independent of the decarbonisation path chosen
Current prices are primarily determined by the global price of fossil fuels, which is arguable difficult to control.
But well-embedded targets and policies as well as further levelling the playing field, will indeed drive down costs
of renewable energy, making energy price fluctuations less dependent of imports and global prices. Instead of
increasing costs, renewables have the potential to hedge the energy price risks for EU society and industry in
the medium and long term.
Cost reduction and learning
Globally, renewable energy targets have been set in many countries. These targets and related policies have
contributed to rapid price drops in wind and solar energy in the last decade6
.
Removal of (non-)economic barriers
Renewable energy targets and specific policies remove economic barriers. Policies that internalize external costs
(like health effects, environmental damage, and adaptation to climate change) already make renewable energy
more competitive by levelling the playing field. In addition, specific policies for low-carbon technologies address
specific economic barriers. Examples: research innovation subsidies, feed-in tariffs, obligations and other
instruments. See more about this in the text box ‘Looking for innovation’. Specific targets and policies also
contribute to the removal of non-economic barriers. Smoother procedures, improved spatial planning and grid
access procedures all contribute to increased competitiveness of renewable energy sources.
Looking for innovation
Greenhouse gas targets combined with carbon-neutral policy instruments like the EU emission trading scheme
will first trigger the deployment of more mature and relatively inexpensive low-carbon technologies (the low-
hanging fruit). There is a risk that currently more-expensive, innovative technologies are not developed in time,
which will increase the cost later on when they are needed (low dynamic efficiency). Specific targets and policy
instruments for renewable energy (and for energy efficiency) provide a strong incentive for an innovative
‘undertow’ of less mature technologies that have higher upfront costs or bump into other barriers, but have a
relevant long-term climate change mitigation potential (see Figure 1).
4 Ragwitz et al (2009) The impact of renewable energy policy on economic growth and employment in the European Union. Commissioned by the European
Commission, DG Energy and Transport, under tender TREN/D1/474/2006. Available online at:
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/studies/doc/renewables/2009_employ_res_summary.pdf
5 This especially applies to technologies for generating electricity from renewable sources.
6 IRENA (2012) Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012. Available online at:
http://irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=277

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Figure 1 In order to reach the long-term GHG reduction ambitions
(-80% compared to 1990 levels), also less mature technologies need to be developed and deployed.
TWO 2030 TARGET PORTFOLIOS ARE MOST PROMINENT IN THE EUROPEAN DEBATE
Following the reasons for having renewable energy targets—at whatever level of ambition—we consider two
post-2020 low-carbon policy portfolios as most viable and realistic:
Case A concerns a combination of an EU decarbonisation target with an EU renewable energy target and an EU
energy efficiency target (the latter is not analysed here). This EU target will be broken down into mandatory
national targets for renewable energy for each Member State. This option therefore largely represents a
continuation of the present policy package until 2020, but with the incorporation of lessons learned on for
example (cost-) efficient policies and measures.
Case B is an EU decarbonisation target only. Renewable energy targets are only set on a voluntary basis on
national levels. Here a formal overall EU target for
renewable energy lacks, which implies that the
present mandatory national targets for renewables will expire by 2020.
An EU decarbonisation target is not or hardly disputed, as the EU has already set a decarbonisation target for
2050.
The next sections touch upon the added value of a renewable energy policy portfolio and the pros and cons of
Case A versus B.
The political climate is changing
The economic recession has put many national budgets under serious pressure and scrutiny. Short-term economic gains are prevalent
over long-term benefits, including climate change mitigation. While Denmark and others openly advocate a 3-target approach
(greenhouse gases, efficiency and renewable), countries like the UK, Poland, France and the Czech Republic prefer one ‘technology-
neutral’ greenhouse gas emission target with the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) as the main EU instrument. Similar differences
occur among market players, such as manufacturers, energy producers, suppliers and energy-intensive industries.
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
- 80% GHG
Mature
technologies
Less mature
technologies

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CASE A: EU CARBON TARGET; EU-WIDE AND BINDING NATIONAL TARGETS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY
Case A basically concerns a continuation of the current 2020 Climate Action package: an overall 20% emissions
reduction target, supported by a 20% renewable energy target and a 20% energy efficiency target. The key
arguments regarding Case A are provided below.
Binding targets stabilize policies and create momentum
One of the most effective impacts of mandatory renewables targets at the EU-level is that (minimum) national
targets become more obligatory or even binding. As seen in recent years, this obligation stabilizes policies and
guides governments and the market. Without a framing EU target that is binding at the national level, countries
are able to lower their renewable energy ambitions. In the period 1995 – 2000, when there was no regulatory
framework in place, the share of renewable energy in the EU grew by 1.9% per year. After the introduction of
indicative and voluntary targets (2001 – 2010), the share of renewable energy grew yearly by 4.5%. With legally
binding national targets (2009 – 2020), the growth has further increased and will need to average 6.3% per year
in order to meet the 2020 targets.
Already in place
Most design elements of an EU-wide post-2020 renewables policy portfolio are already in place, like trajectories,
cooperation mechanisms, and a monitoring and reporting protocol for Member States.
Optimization of support through policy convergence and cooperation
Case A allows for a better alignment of support between Member States than in case B. An EU-wide target
provides more opportunities for balancing national renewables targets and policy instruments, among each
other and with the EU targets for renewable energy and greenhouse gases. Further convergence of policies and
support instruments through mutual learning or increased use of the cooperation mechanisms in the Renewable
Energy Directive (articles 7-11) has a large potential to reduce support cost, but only works if ambitions are
somewhat similar. In the context of the 2020 targets, enforced cooperation is estimated to save up to 6% of
capital costs and support expenditures for the EU as a whole7
. Also increased cooperation with third countries
provides significant opportunities for further societal cost reduction. The cooperation mechanisms can only
work (and be upgraded) in a binding EU renewables framework.
Full harmonisation of renewables support is difficult to achieve
One step beyond coordination is the harmonisation of national support schemes. Harmonisation can be defined as a top-down
implementation of common, binding provisions concerning the support of renewable energy throughout the EU. However, several
studies conclude that full harmonisation will be difficult to achieve due to domestic energy policy interests, cultural differences and
specific market conditions. Moreover, it could also prove to be more expensive than increased cooperation8.
Increased business opportunities through coherence and scale
While national targets imply a patchwork of smaller national markets, an EU-wide target provides the coherence.
This provides better opportunities for the development of a European renewable energy industry, because:
 Many of the existing economic and non-economic barriers for effective deployment of low-carbon
technologies in the long term require a supra-national approach. For instance: electricity markets and
infrastructures are cross-border and are experiencing increased international cooperation. Changes
7 Ragwitz et al. (2012) RE-Shaping: Shaping an effective and efficient European renewable energy market. D23 Final Report. P. 60.
8 Gephart et al. (2012) Contextualising the debate on harmonising RES-E support in Europe A brief pre-assessment of potential harmonisation pathways. D6.1
Report within the context of the IEE project Beyond 2020 – Design and impact of harmonized policy for renewable electricity in Europe.

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that are implied by increasing shares of low-carbon generation also require an EU-wide strategy, rather
than a patchwork of national strategies. Moreover, this would be in line with the establishment of the
EU internal energy market;
 Supply chain and manufacturing markets, like for biofuels, wind turbines and PV panels, are
international markets. It is more effective to boost them on European scale than in selected countries
only. A European renewables target will provide a much stronger investment signal to investors than
voluntary national targets;
 An EU target on renewables combined with specific policies and instruments hedges the risk of a low
carbon price. While the current low prices for emission allowances are no stimulus for innovation, it
has proven to be politically difficult to counter-act these low prices. Meanwhile, the renewables targets
allow for continuation of developments in renewables. It is therefore recommended to implement
several policy instruments that complement each other. Both a renewable energy target and an
efficiency target with supporting policies, reduce the risk that the carbon-only policy fails to deliver the
expected outcome.
CASE B: EU DECARBONISATION TARGET ONLY, VOLUNTARY NATIONAL RENEWABLES TARGETS
Case B describes the case where the EU establishes a carbon target, broken down into binding national carbon
targets for the non-ETS sectors. Within this framework, Member States are allowed to flesh out detailed and
voluntary policy plans, like for renewable energy and for energy efficiency9
. Some key issues of Case B are
described here.
Theoretic efficiency but low investment certainty
According to economic theory, a carbon-only target is market-based and (theoretically) most cost-effective
because the cheapest climate change mitigation technologies will be implemented first. The experience so far,
however, indicates that a carbon-only target combined with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) as main
policy instrument, does not provide sufficient investment certainty for capital-intensive renewables
technologies; it also does not address the specific non-economic barriers that currently prevent several cost-
efficient energy efficiency options to be implemented in practice. A one-target approach may therefore not lead
to the efficiency predicted by theory and rational economic models.
Lower EU ambition due to voluntary renewable energy targets
For reasons of continuity, many Members States may extend their national renewable energy policies beyond
2020. However, without any binding EU framework for renewables, Member States are likely to become less
ambitious in their national target setting for renewables. Other Member States might decide not to develop
specific national renewable energy targets and policies at all.
The pre-2009 experience illustrates the shortcomings of indicative targets
Before 2009, the 2001 Directive on Electricity Production from Renewable Energy was in force10
. This Directive
contained indicative targets for renewable power production for 2010. Even though only indicative, the targets
did put some pressure on the Member States. Also, the 2001 Directive required Member States to implement
national support schemes for renewable energy.
9 This case would still leave some flexibility to Member States. A more extreme scenario that is also discussed for Europe would be an “ETS only” scenario that
would not allow Member States to continue their national support instruments for renewable electricity installations that fall under the ETS. Such scenario
would have a very negative impact on future renewables investments, for the reasons discussed below.
10 Directive on Electricity Production from Renewable Energy 2001/77/EC.

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By 2010, 11 out of 27 Member States reached their national targets11. Electricity from renewable sources reached
a 19% share in the EU, 2% short of the indicative target of 21%. By 2010, 11 out of 27 Member States reached
their national targets12.
Growth in the EU renewable electricity sector was mainly driven by a limited number of pioneering Member
States and only by a few technologies (onshore wind in Spain, Germany and Denmark, solid biomass in Finland,
Sweden, Austria and Belgium, solar cells in Germany, Austria and Spain)13. The inadequate rate of progress
towards agreed targets and the need to foster renewable energy development in all Member States were among
the reasons that prompted the adoption of the Renewable Energy Directive in 2009.
ALIGNING RENEWABLES TARGETS WITH OTHER ENERGY AND CLIMATE TARGETS
Specific renewable energy goals should be designed consistently with other EU climate and energy targets and
policies: the overall carbon target, ETS, the effort sharing for non-ETS sectors and—if applicable—a target for
energy efficiency improvement. In particular, the EU renewables target should be taken into account in the cap-
setting of the EU-ETS for 2030. Setting renewable energy targets for the period after 2020 also has to take in
account the direct link to energy efficiency. Renewable targets are easier to achieve if efficiency increases; the
same is true for greenhouse gas emission reductions. This implies that, for a good balance, also a (binding)
efficiency target is required.
Such fine-tuning was partly neglected when designing the 2020 Climate Action policy framework. Several recent
studies (e.g. Commission analysis on the 2050 low-carbon roadmap14
and a study by Ecofys15
) identify the
discrepancy between the different targets. The combined impact of the 20% renewable energy share and the
20% energy efficiency target for 2020 leads to an emission reduction of 25 to 30% below 1990 levels. Additional
reductions in non-energy sectors would even add up to a total reduction of 32%. This exceeds the 2020
greenhouse gas emissions target of 20%.
REQUIRED RANGES OF AMBITIONS
Different scenarios have modelled renewable energy deployment up to 2030, under different assumptions.
Below we present the three scenarios developed for the EC Energy Roadmap 2050 (based on the PRIMES
model16
) and two projections on the basis of the Green-X model (as developed by the TU Vienna)17
. The results
are summarised in Table 1 below. The table presents the modelling results of total final energy consumption in
2030, the final energy consumption of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and related renewable energy shares.
Note that different scenarios assume different energy savings potentials. This leads to different shares of
renewable energy with comparable absolute amounts.
11 Based on Eurostat data, accessed January 2013
12 Based on Eurostat data, accessed January 2013
13 COM (2006) 849 EC Green Paper follow-up action Report on progress in renewable electricity {SEC(2007) 12} and COM (2009) 192 EC Renewable Energy
Progress Report {SEC(2009) 503 final}.
14 EC (2011) A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050. COM(2011) 112 final
15 Hohne et al. (Ecofys 2011). Consistency of policy instruments. How the EU could move to a -30% greenhouse gas reduction target. Available online at:
http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofysreportconsistencypolicyinstruments20110413.pdf
16 The PRIMES model is developed by the National Technical University of Athens and was used in the EC Energy Roadmap 2050. Figures presented here are
derived from the Roadmap’s Impact Assessment.
17 The Green-X model is developed by the TU Vienna and has been updated regularly since. The figures presented in this paper are derived from the modelling
done for the RE-Shaping project. For more information see Ragwitz et al. (2012) D23 Final Report: RE-Shaping: Shaping an effective and efficient European
renewable energy market.

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The lowest projection of the absolute amount of final energy consumption of renewable energy is the result of
a business-as-usual scenario (Green-X BAU) and leads to 10 ExaJoule (EJ) in 2030. This corresponds to a 19%
renewable share in 2030. The highest projected absolute amount of renewable energy absolute follows the
Green-X Strengthened National Policies (SNP) scenario and totals 16.3 EJ with a share of 31% in 2030. The latter
scenario largely extends the 2020 Climate Action Package to 2030 and includes further optimisation of national
policies towards 2030, including strengthened cooperation18
.
TABLE 1 PROJECTED DEVELOPMENTS FOR 2030 OF TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF RENEWABLE
ENERGY SOURCES (RES) AND SHARE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FROM TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
BETWEEN THE UPPER AND LOWER LIMITS ARE THE THREE MOST RELEVANT AND DISTINCTIVE SCENARIOS OF THE ENERGY
ROADMAP 2050. THE EC CURRENT POLICY INITIATIVE (CPI) SCENARIO IS AN UPDATED BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIO (BAU),
INCORPORATING POLICY AND MARKET DEVELOPMENTS UNTIL EARLY 2012. THIS SCENARIO PROJECTS A SHARE OF 25% IN
2030.
The EC carbon-target-only scenario assumes a decarbonisation pathway without specific support measures for
energy efficiency and renewable energy after 2020. This scenario assumes acceptance and large-scale
deployment of nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)22
and leads to a share of 28%.
Finally, the EC High RES scenario aims to achieve a high overall RES share and higher RES penetration in power
generation, mainly relying on domestic supply. This scenario leads a RES share that is comparable with the
Green-X SNP scenario (31% in 2030), but the latter projects higher total final energy consumption23
.
18 Including the mitigation of all prevailing non-economic barriers and moderate cooperation between MS in the period between 2020 and 2030
19 The Energy Roadmap 2050 refers to this scenario as the Diversified Supply Technologies scenario (ETS-without specific res and EE policies after 2020).
20 In final energy.
21 In the TER heat pumps are treated as being an energy savings measures, rather than as a renewable energy supply option, in line with the EC scenarios for
the Energy Roadmap 2050. The Green-X scenarios regard heat pumps as supply options.
22 All decarbonisation scenarios build on the Current Policy Initiatives scenario (reflecting measures up to 2020) and are driven by carbon pricing to reach some
85% energy related CO2 reductions by 2050 (40% by 2030). This is consistent with the 80% reduction of GHG emissions. Transport measures (energy efficiency
standards, low carbon fuels, infrastructure, pricing and transport planning) as reflected in the Transport White Paper are included in all scenarios. All scenarios
will reflect significant development of electrical storage and interconnections (with the highest requirements in the High RES scenario).
23 Further information on the assumptions behind the modelling done for the Energy Roadmap 2050 and PRIMES models can be found in the Commission Staff
Working Paper SEC(2011) 1565, part 1 and 2.
Green-X EC Energy roadmap Ecofys
BAU (high
demand)
SNP (ref.)
EC CPI
(updated BAU)
EC Carbon
Target Only19 EC High RES
EU-27 100%
RES scenario
Total Final Energy
(EJ)
52 48 45 46 38
RES Final Energy (EJ) 10 16 12 13 14 16
RES Share (%)20 19% 31% 25% 28% 31% 41%21

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PUTTING THE EU ON TRACK FOR 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY
A recent scenario exercise performed by Ecofys24 for WWF shows that a share of 41%25 renewable energy for 2030 would be needed
to meet the EU’s long-term ambition to keep the global temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius, as agreed by world leaders and
regarded crucial to keep the negative consequences of climate change within acceptable limits. Achieving a 41% renewable energy
share by 2030 could put the EU on a track to delivering a nearly 100% renewably powered energy system by 2050. The analysis also
shows that the EU has the potential to be using at least 38% less energy compared to a business-as-usual projection26 and, by doing
both, could reduce its energy related greenhouse emissions by 50% compared to 1990 levels27. The projected absolute amounts of
renewable energy production correspond largely to the Green-X SNP scenario, but the Ecofys analysis assumes strong energy
efficiency improvements. Therefore the share of renewable energy is larger (41%, compared to 31% in the Green-X SNP scenario (see
Table 1).
RENEWABLE ELECTRIFICATION
The different scenarios agree on a substantial elec-trification of the European energy system: an increase of
gross electricity production of 20 to 25% between 2010 and 2030, or, expressed in final electricity consumption,
14 to 16%. This leads to shares of renewables in the total final electricity consumption of 29 up to 60%28
(see
Figure 2).
This significantly larger penetration of renewables has to be accommodated within the operation of electricity
markets. For example, demand response by consumers and industry will play an important role in both the
functioning of the market as well as to keep societal costs to a minimum. Grid development and connection of
renewables, increased levels of flexible generation and storage for balancing and related price mechanisms
remain key issues, and become increasingly important for the period after 2020.
Figure 2 Shares in 2030 of RES-E, RES-H&C and RES-T from total final energy consumption of electricity, heating
& cooling and transport fuels in the different scenarios. Green-X does not provide any shares for RES-H&C and
RES-T.
Despite the increasing role of electricity, policies and instruments for the further deployment of renewable
heating applications deserve particular attention as they are projected to play an important role in any scenario
24 Ecofys (2013) Renewable energy: a 2030 scenario for the EU. The background report is available online: http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/renewable-
energy-a-2030-scenario-for-the-eu/. WWF (2013) Re-energising Putting the EU on track for 100% renewable energy. Available online:
http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/res_report_final_1.pdf
25 This is equivalent to 16 exajoule (EJ) final energy consumption.
26 Energy savings on primary energy are estimated to be ~38% in this scenario compared to the 2007 baseline.
27 Further information on the assumptions behind the modelling done for the Energy Roadmap 2050 and PRIMES models can be found in the Commission Staff
Working Paper SEC(2011) 1565, part 1 and 2.
28 This corresponds to a share of renewable electricity of about 56% from total renewable energy consumption in the SNP scenario, compared to 29% in a
business-as-usual scenario. The EC/PRIMES scenarios do not provide any figures on the share of renewable electricity from total renewable energy consumption.

Page 10
for 2030. Renewable heating has long been neglected by Member States (while they are largely cost-effective).
Many (non-economic) barriers remain.
CONCLUSIONS
This position paper identifies the need and necessity of EU-wide targets for renewable energy, broken down
into binding national targets.
Renewable energy technologies are identified as a major contributor and complementary to any post-2020
greenhouse gas emissions reduction effort. One carbon target and instrument only (ETS) would, in theory,
incentivise the deployment of least expensive low-carbon technologies. However, in practice, this approach is
likely to neglect the need for long-term innovation and learning, and fail to bring down costs of less mature low-
carbon technologies. All scenarios show that leaving out substantial shares of renewables is likely to substantially
drive up compliance costs for deep emission cuts.
By implementing (voluntary) national targets for renewable energy, Member States can individually stress the
importance of renewable energy technologies for achieving their national carbon target, and value other co-
benefits for their national economy, including innovation, employment and security of supply. But such
voluntary and non-binding renewable energy targets arguably lead to an unbalanced and ineffective
development of renewable energy and its industries across Europe. Therefore, an EU decarbonisation-only
target will be less effective in bringing down costs and to lower the non-economic barriers for renewables. The
incurred extra costs will be shifted to society, potentially affecting public support for greenhouse gas emissions
reduction. Extra costs will also influence European industry’s competitiveness and real energy prices for
households.
Extra consumer costs, as a result of renewables support, are a realistic concern. However, end-user prices for
businesses and households are expected to increase independent of the decarbonisation path chosen. The
Energy Roadmap 2050 suggests that the total energy system costs are largely comparable in all decarbonisation
scenarios. Current prices are primarily determined by the global price of fossil fuels, which is arguable difficult
to control. But well-embedded targets and policies as well as levelling the playing field further, will indeed drive
down costs of renewable energy, making energy price fluctuations less dependent of imports and global prices.
Instead of increasing costs, renewables have the potential to hedge the energy price risks for society and industry
in the medium and long-term.

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RECOMMENDATIONS
The conclusions lead to the following policy recommendations and actions.
 We strongly recommend implementing an EU-wide renewable energy target, broken down into binding
national targets. Such an approach should trigger sufficiently ambitious policies and measures to reach
these targets. In combination with consistent carbon and energy efficiency targets, this is the best way
to keep costs of a low-carbon pathway towards 2050 low. The consistency of these targets will be key
for their success. Mandatory renewable energy targets will also create much more (co-) benefits for the
environment and economy, both for individual Member States and for EU as a whole. And finally:
mandatory renewable energy targets improve policy stability and reduce risks for investors;
 A 2030 policy portfolio should strike a balance between concrete implementing measures at EU level
and Member States’ flexibility to meet targets matching their national circumstances. As was done for
the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive, any distribution of efforts should take into account the Member
State’s comparative wealth, industrial structure, energy mix, carbon and energy intensity and
exploitable resources;
 Differentiated targets per Member State will also improve fairness, but sufficient flexibility is needed in
meeting them. Therefore, we also recommend increased cooperation among Member States. The
resulting EU-wide market for renewable energy has the potential to considerably reduce costs of
carbon compliance further;
 Policies and instruments for the further deployment of renewable heating applications deserve
particular attention as they are projected to play an important role in any scenario for 2030. While the
share of renewable electricity is strongly increasing in all scenarios, including business-as-usual,
renewable heating has long been neglected by Member States (while they are largely cost-effective).
Many (non-economic) barriers remain;
 Along with an EU-wide target for renewables, measures are required for typical EU-wide interests that
go beyond renewable energy technologies alone. These interests are already identified in different
developments but need to be strengthened in future policy portfolios. Some key examples:
o Modernizing and ‘smartening’ the power grid, including increased interconnector capacities;
o To create a genuine internal market for energy;
o Increasing the security and diversity of energy supply for the whole EU;
o Securing the MS’s economic interests by preventing discontinuity in international (renewable)
energy markets;
o International climate change negotiations will also play an important are role and will
determine the level of ambition and target. The EU has voiced the ambition to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions further by 95% in 2050 (instead of 80%), compared to 1990, if other
countries worldwide also agree on ambitious targets.
 Given the various scenario exercises that have been conducted in the recent past, a share of 30-41%
renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2030 is deemed feasible, whereby the higher end of
the range is quite ambitious and asks for significant efforts to reduce the demand for energy and to
establish deep energy efficiency improvements. Some flexibility is needed here for target setting
beyond 2030, because the preferred pathways in ambitions renewable energy towards 2050 will
depend to a large extend on the overall energy use and the expected cost of compliance for industries
and citizens. The more cost-effective renewable energy technologies become, the higher the ambition
can be. EU-wide targets for renewable energy, broken down into binding national targets, will facilitate
this in a most effective manner.

The Need and Necessity of an EU-wide Renewable Energy Target for 2030

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The Need and Necessity of an EU-wide Renewable Energy Target for 2030