4. Objectives
In this session, all the participants will able to :
Define Epidemiology.
Define Epidemiologic Transition.
Explain the theory of Abdel Omran and its main points
Explain the stages of Epidemiologic Transitions.
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5. What is epidemiology?
Epidemiology, branch of medical SCIENCE that
studies the distribution of DISEASE in human
populations and the factors determining that
distribution, chiefly by the use of STATISTICS.
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ACCORDING TO
6. THE EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION
The Epidemiologic transition is that process by
which the pattern of mortality and disease is
transformed from one of high mortality among
infants and children and episodic famine and
epidemic affecting all age groups to one of
degenerative and man-made diseases (such as those
attributed to smoking) affecting principally the
elderly.
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7. Epidemiologic Transition?
Back in 1971, Abdel Omran published a
seminal paper where he posited his
THEORY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC
TRANSITION
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To characterize population change. The
epidemiologic transition is a stage of development
characterized by a shift in population growth, life
expectancy and disease patterns. The 5 main points
are listed below
8. THEORY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION
Proposition One. The theory of epidemiologic
transition begins with the major premise that
mortality is a fundamental factor in population
dynamics
Proposition Two. During the transition, a long-term
shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby
pandemics of infection are gradually displaced by
degenerative and man-made diseases as the chief form
of morbidity and primary cause of death.
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9. THEORY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION
Proposition Three. During the epidemiologic
transition the most profound changes in health and
disease patterns obtain among children and young
women
Proposition Four. The shifts in health and disease
patterns that characterize the epidemiologic transition
are closely associated with the demographic and
socioeconomic transitions that constitute the
modernization complex
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10. THEORY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION
Proposition Five. Peculiar variations in the pattern,
the pace, the determinants and the consequences of
population change differentiate three basic models
of the epidemiologic transition: the classical or
western model, the accelerated model and the
contemporary or delayed mode (Basically there are
differences in the rates of the transition depending
on a number of different factors)
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12. Stage I: Pestilence and Famine
Infectious and parasite diseases were principle causes of
death along with accidents and attacks by animals and
other humans. Thomas Malthus called these caused of
death “natural checks”
Most violent Stage I epidemic was the Black
Plague(bubonic plague or black death) probably
transferred to humans by fleas from infected rats
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14. Black Plague
Originated among Tatars in present day Kyrgyzstan
Diffused to present day Ukraine when Tatar army attacked
an Italian trading post on the Black Sea
Italians fleeing carried the infected rats on ships west to
major coastal cities of Southeastern Europe in 1347
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15. continued
The plague diffused from the coast to inland towns and
then to rural areas
It reaches Western Europe in 1348 and Northern Europe in
1349
25 million Europeans died from 1347 to 1350. This was
one-half of the continents population.
In China, 13 million died from the plague in 1380.
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17. Stage II: Receding Pandemics
Improved sanitation, nutrition, and medicine during the
Industrial Revolution reduced the spread of infectious
diseases.
Death rates did not improve immediately and universally
during the early years of the Industrial Revolution.
Poor people who crowded into Industrial Cities had high
death rates due to Cholera
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18. Stage III: Degenerative Diseases
Associated with the chronic diseases of aging
Heart disease and cancer
Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have low incidences of
cancer primarily because of low life expectancy.
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21. Stage IV: Delayed Degenerative
Life expectancy of older people is extended through
medical advances.
Cancer medicines, bypass surgery, better diet, reduced use
of tobacco, and alcohol
However, consumption of non-nutritious food and
sedentary behavior have resulted in an increase in obesity
in this stage.
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