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03-JULY-2013
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MCX NEWSLETTER- DAILY
Daily MCX Newsletter
03-JULY-2013

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BULLION
Recent fall in gold and silver prices were the result of an
over-reaction from bond markets to Fed comments and
ultimately real interst rates will fall back from current
levels, making the situation positive for precious metals
in general, according to ETF Securities Ltd. In the near
term, further declines in gold prices can't be ruled out
but the fact that gold is trading 20% below its average
marginal cost of production, silver 10%, and platinum
25% below marginal production costs, prices will have to
move above these levels to support long term supply
growth, according to ETF Securities Ltd. "With gold
speculative shorts at all-time highs and market sentiment
almost unanimously negative, we believe there is scope
for a price reversal in the coming weeks and months.
Silver should benefit from a gold price rebound. Platinum
and palladium have been affected more by the recent
liquidity squeeze and resultant growth fears in China.
Again, we believe the sell-off is overdone. We expect
China liquidity conditions will ease and growth fears will
dissipate over the course of the year, removing this
hindrance to platinum and palladium price
performance." ETF Securities points out that all bull
markets need a correction and the yellow metal has gone
through a 12 year rally. But the price corrections have
been excessive and has returned the have returned
precious metals prices to attractive long-term
accumulation levels. In the near-term it is difficult to see
any immediate catalysts for a sustained rebound in the
gold price. Gold will likely face headwinds as long as US
interest rates continue to rise, inflation expectations
continue to fall and the US dollar continues to
strengthen. "However, we believe these are cyclical
factors that are temporary."
MARKET NEWS
ENERGY
The trend in crude oil futures for July delivery on India's
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) looks sideways to
bullish for the day and traders are advised to stay on buy
side
“For intra-day, support for the commodity is seen at 5830
while resistance is seen at 5870. If prices break the level
of 5870 then the futures are expected to move towards
5900,” said Amrita Mashar, Research Analyst at
Commodity Online.
“Traders may take buy position above 5870 with the stop
loss of 5850 for the target near 5900,” she added. MCX
crude oil futures for July delivery was seen trading up by
0.70% at Rs.5869 per barrel as of 17.24 IST on Tuesday.
Brent crude oil prices in the international market rose
above $103 per barrel on Tuesday on concerns over
Middle East political tensions.
Brent crude oil futures for August delivery on NYMEX was
seen trading up by 0.20% at $103.23 per barrel as of
17.35 IST on Tuesday. Persisting political tensions in
Libya, Egypt have caused for temporary shut down of
crude oil fields there by supporting the crude oil prices to
certain extent.
The crude oil prices were also supported by positive US
Manufacturing data. On Monday, the Institute for Supply
Management stated that its factory index rose to 50.9 in
June, up from 49 recorded in the previous month. May's
index was the lowest in four years. A reading above 50
signals growth and below the same shows contraction.
BASE METAL
Copper futures for August delivery on India's Multi
Commodity Exchange (MCX) is positive and traders are
advised to take long position for the day.
“For intra-day, resistance for the commodity is seen at
420, if prices break the same then the next resistance
level is seen at 424 level,” said Tarang Parmar,
Research Analyst at Commodity Online.
“Support for the futures is seen at 411 and 409 levels.
Intra-day traders may take long position near 413 with
the stop loss below 409 and can wait for the target at
419 level,” he added.
Appreciation of Indian Rupee against US Dollar is
expected to pressurise the base metal prices to certain
extent during intra-day trade.
MCX copper for August delivery was seen trading
down by 0.29% at Rs.415.95 per kilogram as of 13.27
IST on Tuesday.
The United States Census Bureau is scheduled to
release its monthly data on Factory Orders at 19.30 IST
today and traders may get trading clues for their
trading from the data released.
Also, the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC)
permanent voting member (2009 - 2013) William C.
Dudley's speech is expected at 22.00 IST today
Concerns over economic recovery in China is putting
pressure on the base metal movement in both
domestic and international market to certain extent.

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GOLD (5 AUGUST)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : -CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 26120, 26350
SUPPORT : - 25640, 25350
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
TECHNICAL
VIEW
SILVER (5 JULY)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 41150, 41600
SUPPORT : - 40100, 39300
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
BULLION

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ENERGY
CRUDEOIL (19 JULY)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - BULLISH
RESISTANCE : - 6000, 6050
SUPPORT : - 5900, 5840
STRATEGY : - BUY ON DIPS
NATURAL GAS (26 JULY)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 220.00, 222.00
SUPPORT : - 215.00, 211.30
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS

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BASE METAL
COPPER (30 AUG.)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 420.00, 422.00
SUPPORT : - 414.00, 411.30
STRATEGY : - BUY ON DIPS
LEAD (31 JULY)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 125.00, 125.80
SUPPORT : - 123.50, 121.50
STRATEGY : - BUY ON DIPS

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ZINC (31 JULY)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 112.80, 113.50
SUPPORT : - 111.00, 110.00
STRATEGY : - BUY ON DIPS
ALUMINUM (31 JULY)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 108.50, 109.00
SUPPORT : - 106.90, 105.50
STRATEGY : - BUY ON DIPS
NICKEL (31 JULY)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 845.00, 855.00
SUPPORT : - 825.00, 810.00
STRATEGY : - BUY ON DIPS

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GOLD 1245.60
SILVER 19.4550
COPPER 03.1430
CRUDE OIL 101.7500
NATURAL GAS 03.639
PALLADIUM 684.40
PLATINUM 1368.00
USDINR 59.5400
EURUSD 01.2972
USDJPY 100.5300
USDCHF 00.9512
GBPUSD 01.5149
USDCAD 01.0539
INTERNATIONAL
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