1. 1
Attribution Insights
A New Perspective on Attribution
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
Know ahead. Act before. TM
2. 2
The Marketer’s Funnel and
Path to Conversion:
A New Perspective
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5. 5
The consumer’s path to conversion
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6. 6
The consumer’s path to conversion
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Email
Mobile
Search
Social
Affiliat
e
Video
Off
Line
Display
7. 7
The consumer’s path to conversion
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Display
8. 8
The consumer’s path to conversion
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9. 9
Last touch attribution is outdated
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All upper funnel activity
is missed
Multiple partners on the
plan “fight” to get last
touch
Prospecting
Retargeting
11. 11
Incorporating the “first site visit” is crucial
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Prospecting brings
qualified and incremental
leads to your site
Retargeting pushes site
visitors down to the
conversion event
Prospecting
Retargeting
12. 12
Incorporating the “first site visit” is crucial
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
The “first site visit”
signals the beginning
of retargeting
Retargeting
Prospecting
14. 14
Split funnel works across all channels and models
Bottom Funnel Split Funnel
Last touch
Linear
Multi touch
Regression
Last touch
Linear
Multi touch
Regression
2014 | Copyright 2013 QQuuaannttccaasstt || CCoonnffiiddeennttiiaall 14
15. 15
Split Funnel Attribution
Metrics & Insights
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16. 16
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
Overall Mix
Prospecting,
44%
Retargeting,
56%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mix by Partner
Partner 1 Partner 2 Partner 3 Partner 4
Prospecting Retargeting
Split Funnel Mix:
A breakdown of Prospecting and Retargeting impressions to
show what partners are doing.
17. 17
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
The ratio of consumers who
convert after the first visit
vs. those who convert after
multiple visits
A high % of conversion
on first visit = less need
for retargeting
A low % of conversion
on first = greater need
for retargeting
First Visit Conversion Ratio:
A directional indicator for prospecting and
retargeting dependence.
18. 18
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
Time After Visit Time to Visit
Time to Convert from the first
touch and the first visit provide
directional indicators for optimal
balance between retargeting and
prospecting
Time to Convert
Time to Convert:
The complete timeline of your consumers’
path to conversion.
19. 19
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
The total number of
touchpoints from first
touch helps you define
how many touchpoints
to use in your attribution
model.
Ad
Frequency
Before
Visit
Per Visitor
Per
Converter
Ad Frequency:
Understand your customers’ interaction with
ad touchpoints.
20. 20
Align your incentives:
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
Strike the right balance for splitting credit,
not just budget.
Split Credit for
each Conversion 1
You Decide How
to Divide Credit 2
Upper Funnel Credit
Prospecting Phase
Lower Funnel Credit
Retargeting Phase
21. 21
An example by the numbers:
Last Touch vs. Split Funnel
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22. 22
Example: 4 partners on the plan – equal budgets
Partners Budget
Prospector 1 $20,000
Prospector 2 $20,000
Prospector 3 $20,000
Retargeter 4 $20,000
Total $80,000
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23. 23
Last Touch
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24. 24
Performance based on last touch attribution
Partners Budget
1,000
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Last Touch
Conversions
Last
Touch
CPA
Prosp 1 $20,000 100 $200
Prosp 2 $20,000 150 $133
Prosp 3 $20,000 200 $100
Rtrgtr 4 $20,000 550 $36
Total
$80,00
0
1,000 $80
0
Before
Partners 1 is clearly lagging
behind the pack
Partner 4 is gaining most of credit
25. 25
Optimizations based on last touch attribution
1,000
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0
Partners Budget
Last Touch
Conversions
Last
Touch
CPA
Budget
Prosp 1 $20,000 100 $200
Prosp 2 $20,000 150 $133
Prosp 3 $20,000 200 $100 $20,000
Rtrgtr 4 $20,000 550 $36 $60,000
Total
$80,00
0
1,000 $80
$80,00
0
Before
Remove Partner 1
Remove Partner 2
Keep Partner 3
Keep Partner 4
26. 26
Results with last touch attribution optimizations
1,000
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
1,000
0
0
Partner
s
Budget
Last Touch
Conversions
Last
Touch
CPA
Budget
Last Touch
Conversions
Last
Touch
CPA
Prosp 1 $20,000 100 $200
Prosp 2 $20,000 150 $133
Prosp 3 $20,000 200 $100 $20,000 150 $133
Rtrgtr 4 $20,000 550 $36 $60,000 700 $86
Total
$80,00
0
1,000 $80
$80,00
0
850 $118
850
Reduced
Conversions
Before After
33. 33
Key Takeaways and Next Steps
| Copyright 2014 | Copyright 2014 Q Quuaanntctcaasst t | | C Coonnfifdideenntitaial l
34. 34
Key takeaways
Split funnel attribution makes this all possible
1. Know your funnel metrics - what is actually happening
2. Understand your funnel dynamics – what you want to happen
3. Set the right incentives to maximize your desired results – influence the outcome
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
35. 35
Next Steps: How do I Implement?
Talk to your attribution vendor
Ask for Split Funnel
Talk to Quantcast
Join our free beta offering
| Copyright 2014 Quantcast | Confidential
For more questions please feel free to reach out direct:
szdarko@Quantcast.com
Thank you…
Love the real life story…
I am here today to help illuminate what I believe is fundamentally new way of looking at attribution
What I will be sharing with you isn’t something unique just to quantcast
It is an open source solution that we are actively using and sharing with attribution platforms, adservers and other vendors
By openly discussing the methodologies and metrics around what we are calling Split funnel attribution
we can hopefully, with everyones help, evolve the current attribution standards for the betterment of our entire industry as a whole
Attribution is hot right now, recent acquisitions have validated that marketers are becoming aware that without proper measurement you may not be getting the maximum erformance out of your media dollars, and even worse you might getting taken advantage of if you aren’t careful.
Attribution is more relevant today than it ever has been and that momentum isn’t going to stop. But this is where we need your help.
Now before I start, I want to make it clear that I am not suggesting that everyone drop their current attribution method and start using this new approach.
What we are proposing is that everyone should look to implement this in addition to their current attribution model
Your data doesn’t change, I just think this new way of slicing it might enable you to make better optimization decisions in addition to your current solution
My goal here is to open your eyes to an additional way of looking at an old problem that hopefully might change the way you look at it forever.
So…
I’m sure all of you are familiar with the basic marketing funnel
Consumers move down the funnel through A, C, P & P to the eventual measured conversion event
You can simplify this funnel even further by separating it into two phases,
an Upper funnel and a lower funnel, or commonly referred to in the digital funnel as Prospecting and Retargeting
Now, not every one understands this, but prospecting and retargeting are fundamentally different online targeting tactics.
Each requires a different set of data and different skillsets.
Prospecting deals with potentially the entire addressable online population
and requires its own unique data set to determine if a potential consumer will be receptive to your ad
Hopefully prospecting moves the consumer from awareness to the consideration or preference stage where they eventually visit your site for the first time.
Retargeting, on the other hand, starts with a significantly smaller pool of potential candidates.
By it’s own definition retargeting is serving ads to consumers that have already visited your site.
Meaning they are already half way down the funnel, somewhere in the consideration or preference stage.
Retargeting uses different data signals to push a smaller lead pool down to the conversion event.
Now this isn’t to say the prospecting is harder or easier than retargeting.
It’s just to illustrate that they are very different
and this is why we need to measure them differently, to fully understand their impact on each other and your overall conversions.
This is the overarching concept of our discussion today.
And it is the foundational basis for split funnel attribution.
It’s simple, but as I will hopefully soon illustrate, it can be quite powerful
Here is another representation of that same marketing funnel…
but now with ad interaction points along the consumers path to conversion.
Each point represents a measureable ad opportunity
and the highlighted dots represent where a display ad was served along the path to conversion from an attribution perspective.
Now you might be saying, “wait a minute seph, display is only one part of the attribution issue”
and your right, there are more advertising channels than just display.
No individual path is the same, which creates some challenges when it comes to attribution and where you measure.
You have, Email, Mobile, video, Search, offline, social, affiliate, and probably even a few more that I forgot to list
All of these are important,
but cross channel attribution is a different subject and to keep this presentation clean I am going to focus on display today.
However, I will give you this to noodle on
Cross channel attribution as a whole is equal to the sum of its parts, and the spit funnel concept that we are discussing today can and should be applied to every channel,
and by making each channel more accurate on their own,
we make the whole cross channel better in the process.
So let’s remove the other channels for now
And clean this up so we can get back on track with the single channel split funnel discussion…
Now, with the cross channel debate out of the way
let’s talk about the evolution of attribution measurement for a moment.
In the early days of online targeting, meaning more than 10 years ago, online targeting tactics were very blunt instruments
and it only required blunt measurements to determine effectiveness,
but today’s targeting tools have become significantly more precise.
In the last ten years, and really… the last 5 years,
online targeting, with the advent of big data and RTB, have created precision surgical instruments that have outpaced the outdated last touch models in use today.
To the point that it is now almost easier to manipulate and game these outdated models than it is to actually work within them.
The most widely used model today is still the basic last touch model.
The harsh reality is that last touch is outdated and very easily gamed.
All upper funnel activity is missed and partners on the plan “fight” to get last touch.
This ultimately creates the wrong incentive and a lose, lose, lose situation for all parties involved.
The ad targeting vendors, the marketers, and the consumers all lose out.
The consumer loses because they are over saturated with retargeting ads to the point of annoyance.
(We have all likely experienced a pair of shoes or other product following us around the internet at some point)
The marketer loses because their budgets are over allocated to those most likely to convert anyway.
The ad targeting vendors lose because they are forced to optimize to an inferior attribution game and significantly dulls their targeting toolset and potential.
By only rewarding the last ad it incentivizes everyone to focus on gaming rather than maximizing conversions as a team.
Let me give simple analogy to help illustrate…
Imagine a relay race, a two leg relay race to be specific.
If you only gave a metal to the runner that crossed the finish line do you think anyone would want to run the first leg of the race?
Every competitive runner would fight to be in the last leg.
In fact, why even bother to running the first leg if no one is even measuring it?
If you only measured at the finish line,
I’d bet a few runners might deliberately skip the fist leg and just start at the second leg.
Even if participants were forced to run the first leg,
they would likely not pass the baton to the second runner,
they’d just try to carry it across the finish line themselves so they could get credit.
By simply incorporating the first site visit one of the most valuable insights you get right out of the gates
is the ability to definitively distinguish between what ads were served as prospecting ads
and which were served as retargeting.
If an impression is served before the first visit, it’s a prospecting ad,
if it is served after the first visit, it’s a retargeting ad.
There is no argument and no room for miss interpretation. That’s it!
It is very simple and it can’t be gamed.
You now know precisely how many ads are being delivered in each phase by every vendor on your plan.
This undisputed measurement point perfectly separates the upper prospecting and lower retargeting phases
This is how we split the funnel.
Now, I want to point out again that there is a difference between the first site visit and just any visit to your site.
From an attribution perspective the first site visit only counts for those consumers that actually convert.
If a prospecting partner brings a visitor to your site but they do not convert, it doesn’t count.
It’s an interesting metric to know, how many total site visitors a prospecting partner is bringing to your site for the first time,
but it only counts when that first time visitor also eventually converts.
If all we were interested in from prospecting
was only new visitors,
then there are plenty of click farms out there that will be happy to sell you clicks all day long, I am sure
but we know that doesn’t work.
The goal here is to only reward for reaching qualified prospects that visit for the first time AND convert. Both events are required to count
One of the most beneficial aspects of being able to distinguish between who contributed to a conversion from both the prospecting and retargeting phases is that now you’ve created a partnership between the two efforts.
Now each phase is rooting for the other to do their job.
The prospector brings a visitor to the site for the first time and if they don’t convert on that first visit
they actively root for the retargeting partners to bring that lead across the finish line so that they can reap the rewards as well.
Same goes for the retargeters.
Now they are yelling up at the prospectors saying “ bring me more qualified leads”.
You now have a holistic partnership where each leg of the race is rooting for the other.
Even if a targeting partner is full funnel targeting on both phases,
This is how you properly balance your funnel and create an inclusive partnership between the two distinct marketing tactics.
Let’s bring back the relay race analogy…
And that’s a great question, and the answer is yes.
The reality is that almost any attribution model that goes beyond the last touch is better,
but currently most of the models offered today by the pure play attribution companies, the tag management vendors and even the ad servers
still only measure from the conversion event and do not incorporate the first site visit as a delineation point to separate prospecting impressions from retargeting.
A multi-touch model does spread the credit,
but because of the disproportionate efficiencies between the two phases
it still heavily favors the bottom funnel retargeting impressions.
Even full blown regression modeling , which is arguably one of the best offerings available today, is itself mathematically biased by the lower funnel retargeting tactic.
They are all biased because they all rely on a single point of measurement at the bottom of the funnel.
That’s why the spit funnel concept is so powerful.
In its simplicity is its effectiveness.
Split funnel enhances all forms of attribution modeling
across all channels.
Incorporating a second point of measurement also provides a whole host of new metrics that give additional insights into the dynamics of your funnel
Let’s remember that the reason for using attribution isn’t about rewarding or punishing partners on a plan.
It’s really about optimizing your campaign for maximum results.
The outcome of optimization decisions might result in shifting budgets and partners,
but maximizing conversions is what we are after.
So let’s dig into some of the specific metrics that you get by incorporating the first site visit
Specifically, I’d like to highlight a few unique metrics that are different from what you currently get from your typical adserver or attribution vendor today.
One of the first metrics we provide that I’d like to highlight is the Split Funnel Mix – by incorporating the first site visit, you are now able to see exactly how your ad dollars are being spent overall and across each partner.
This prospecting/retargeting percentage metric alone is worth its weight in gold for many marketers.
Out of the dozens of campaigns we’ve seen split funnel implemented on so far
almost every time there is a partner that is doing something that was not expected.
If there is only one thing you take away from this it should be this.
Know where your ads are falling in regards to the first site visit.
Split the funnel and see transparently into each phase across all your partners.
You might be surprised by what you find.
The next metric is the first visit conversion ratio.
This metric is a directional indicator on how important prospecting and retargeting are to your funnel dynamics.
If you look at the diagram, some first time visitors to your site are going to convert on their first visit.
Some are going to convert on a later visit.
This ratio is your first visit conversion ratio
It’s super simple, but it gives you a clear understanding on how dependent your total conversions are to each leg of the race.
If your first visit conversion ratio is high you need more prospecting,
if it is low you have a greater dependency on retargeting.
Now, no one will argue that you should do only prospecting or retargeting.
Clearly you need a mix of both to efficiently bring consumers across the finish line,
but how do you know what the proper mix of each tactic is to maximize conversions for your particular product?
This is where a directional metric lead you.
No attribution solution is a one size fits all.
Every product is different and every product has unique funnel dynamics
For example, if your product is an easily considered purchase,
say a 1 dollar widget or download or a simple online form,
you might have a very high first visit conversion ratio and prospecting would need to be a significant portion of your marketing mix.
Conversely, on the other side of the coin,
if you have a highly considered product like a $50K mainframe or a diamond ring,
you would likely have a very low first visit conversion ratio and retargeting would be an essential portion of your mix.
Another directional metric that I’ll highlight is the time to convert metric.
Now most adservers and attribution platforms will give you the time to convert window from the first measureable touchpoint to the conversion
and from the last touch point to the conversion.
And while those are both interesting they aren’t nearly as telling as the breakdown you get from incorporating the first site visit into time to convert metric.
Let me explain…
The time to visit metric is how long it takes from the first measurable touchpoint to the first site visit,
and the time after visit is how much time did it take from the first visit for all the converters that didn’t convert on the first visit but did convert on a subsequent visit.
This is another clear and simple indicator that tell you how much focus you need to put on each portion.
For example, you might have a very differentiated product in market or a very compelling offer or a call to action that is easy to make people check out your site,
but maybe it takes for ever to actually get them across the finish line and convert.
Conversely, you might have lots of competition in a market that is hard to differentiate in and just getting someone to become aware of your offering is the hardest part,
but once you get them to your site it is easy to convert them.
Now neither of the two metrics I just introduced you to are alone enough to govern your entire marketing mix and budget allocation,
but in combination they are a strong indicator on what your ideal funnel dynamics should be to maximize conversions.
The second step is to use your funnel metrics to understand you ideal funnel dynamics.
Based on the first visit conversion ratio, the time to visit and convert metrics and others that you’ll now have access to,
what is your optimal marketing funnel mix. What are the metrics indicating is your optimum mix for maximum conversions?
First know what's happening, second know what you want to happen and then third…
Touchpoints = ad impressions on path to conversion
Total number of touchpoints (from first touch) should be measured to guide attribution model
Ad Frequency vs. Touchpoints (on path to conversion) can be used to adjust for effectiveness (penalize spray and pray)
Implementing the split funnel strategy allows you to measure to set the right incentives through credit allocation to maximize your desired results.
This is where the true power of the split funnel comes into play,
this is where you gain even more control over the execution of your funnel mix.
Allocating your budget inline with how you want your dollars to be spent is one part of the equation,
but having a transparent way to set the right incentive to guide your targeting partners to align with your desired goals is just as important.
And this is where the concept of a split credit comes into play.
Now before I start, I want to make it clear that I am not suggesting that everyone drop their current attribution method and start using this new approach.
What we are proposing is that everyone should look to implement this in addition to their current attribution model
Your data doesn’t change, I just think this new way of slicing it might enable you to make better optimization decisions in addition to your current solution
My goal here is to open your eyes to an additional way of looking at an old problem that hopefully might change the way you look at it forever.
So…
Now, I say semi-real campaign, because just like movies are “based on a true Story”
so is the example I am about to go through here…
Here we have 4 partners on a plan with $20K allocated to each.
3 are informed to be prospecting only and one is authorized to do retargeting.
A Fairly standard campaign with what looks like an intended marketing mix of 75% prospecting and 25% retargeting.
Now I’m going to show you two views into the data of this campaign,
one is from a last touch perspective,
and one is from a split funnel perspective.
Let’s start with the last touch attribution approach first…
Here is the same campaign we just looked at,
but now we have real performance data that is being tracked by our old faithful last touch attribution model.
Based on these results, if you look at the last touch CPA column,
it is easy to conclude that partner 4 is killing it and partner 1 is clearly not up to par.
Based on these bottom funnel last touch metrics you would likely conclude that partner 3 and 4 are the better performing partners
and based on their performance you would likely knock the other two off the plan and give ¾ of the budget to partner 4 and ¼ to partner 3…
That looks pretty good right?
But what happens after you wait a month for your optimizations to take hold.
Your total conversions go down.
Unknowingly you’ve just allocated nearly all of your marketing dollars to bottom funnel tactics and you are now officially oversaturating your organic audience with ads.
Not what we were looking to do,
but based on the blunt measurement tools we were using it is not easy to even know why this might have happened.
Now my gut says that there are likely some of you out there on the call that can relate to this type of scenario.
Where at some point you implemented an optimization tactic through budget allocation or by shifting partners on a plan and you ended up getting an outcome that wasn’t your intention.
Not ideal.
So now let’s look at that same campaign from a split funnel perspective and see what we can learn
Same partners and budget allocation,
but now we are going to incorporate the first site visit to split the funnel
Boom! Look at that..
Now we are instantly able to see what is happening to our impression dollars
And it is very clear why partner 3 was looking better than the other two prospectors.
More than half of their impressions were retargeting
and after we made the optimization based on the last touch CPA metrics, from the previous example, we shifted our mix to over 90% retargeting.
No wonder our conversions went down…
Now I’d like to pause here for a brief moment…
This prospecting/retargeting percentage metric alone is worth its weight in gold for many marketers.
Out of the dozens of campaigns I’ve seen split funnel implemented on so far
almost every time there is a partner that is doing something that was not expected.
If there is only one thing you take away from this webinar it should be this.
Know where your ads are falling in regards to the first site visit.
Split the funnel and see transparently into each phase across all your partners.
You might be surprised by what you find
Okay, back to the example at hand…
Now that we know what is actually happening in our funnel, let’s look at the metrics through the split funnel lens…
Now for the sake of time I’m going to tell you that the funnel dynamics for this specific campaign suggested that a 50/50 mix of prospecting and retargeting would be ideal for optimal conversions.
So based on this reasoning we are going to split our conversion credits in the same way.
50% of the conversion credit is going to the last view before the first visit,
and 50% of the conversion credit is going to the last view before the conversion.
It’s a simple 50/50 split funnel last touch model, very easy.
Now, look at the split funnel CPA column
notice that it tells a very different story now, doesn’t it?
My guess is that you might choose to make different optimization decisions now that you know what is actually happening and what you want to have happen…
Based on the split funnel CPA performance of each partner and the suggested funnel dynamics of a 50/50 mix
you’d likely allocate half of the budget to partner 1 for the prospecting phase
and half of the budget to partner 4 for the retargeting leg of the race.
Now what do you think happens to your total conversions?
They go up! And not by a insignificant amount either. 20% In this specific example.
So I hope that you were able to follow me throughout the presentation and you are at least intrigued.
Let me remind you once again that split funnel is not meant to replace your current attribution solution today.
It should be used in addition to what you are currently using
And over time, you can make your own call on what you trust.
I know that I likely just threw a ton of new information at you
and it’s possible that not all of it has stuck or maybe it’s still sinking in.
So let me finish this with three key take away’s from today.
One, Know your funnel metrics –
leverage the first site visit
and know what is actually happening on your campaign for each leg of the race
Two, Use those metrics to understand your ideal funnel dynamics–
This is what you want to happen in an ideal scenario
And three, Leverage the open transparency of split funnel
to set the right incentives through measurement and credit allocation
to maximize your desired results –
Basically, try to load the deck as much as you can in your favor
to influence the optimal outcome
So that’s it
Talk to your current attribution vendor or adserving company about split funnel.
Talk to your colleagues and friends, talk to Quantcast.
Talk to whomever might listen
Through transparency and discussion we can make change happen