Det amerikanske valg 2012

Overblik – seks dage til valget
Stillingen lige nu:
Helt lige?
Afgørende
spørgsmål
Det fundamentale
Deltagelsen, ground
game
Ohio
Sidste øjebliks
overraskelser


Ohio, Ohio, Ohio


Hvorfor bruge tid på USA valg?


Derfor er valget interessant
Udenrigspolitik
Iran, Kina, Afghanistan
Økonomisk politik
Gældskrise
Globale initiativer
Grøn politik
Politisk kommunikation


Betyder det noget, hvem der er præsident?


Hvad skete der med Obama?


Det fundamentale


Det fundamentale
Approval ratings are everything
in an election year. Presidents
Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and
George H.W. Bush all had
approval ratings under 50%.
The other thing they all had in
common? They all also lost
their bid for a second term.
Fifty Percent is the magic
mark. If you’re above that
heading into an election year,
you’re chances remain
promising. This precedent is
not without exception.
President Harry Truman ran
and won reelection in 1948,
with an approval rating in
the high 30’s. However, that
is the only exception.
Every other president since
polling like this began including
Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan,
Bill Clinton and George W.
Bush had an approval rating
above 50% throughout their re-
election year


Efter konventerne


Den første debat – og den anden


The auto bailout


De 47% og kodesprog


W’s skygge


Super pacs og 11 mia.


Ideologi


Værdipolitik


Udenrigspolitik


Demografien
Obama Romney
All registered voters 47 47
Men 42 52
Women 52 43
18 to 29 years 59 36
65+ years 40 56
White (non-Hispanic) 37 59
Black 90 5
Hispanic 69 25
Married 40 56
Not married 59 35
Kilde: Gallup

Bradley effekten – Mormon effekten
In 1982, Bradley,
the Democratic
gubernatorial
nominee in
California, had led
in pre-election
surveys, and was
declared the
winner in pollster
Mervin Field’s exit
polls.


Det delte USA


Svingstaterne - scenarier
RCP
STATE OBAMA ROMNEY AVERAGE 2008 2004 2000 Obamas vej til 270 Romneys vej til 270
Obama
Ohio (18) 48.6 46.7 Obama +1.9 +4.6 Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Obama
Florida (29) 47.6 49.0 Romney +1.4 +2.8 Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1 Florida (29)
Obama
Virginia (13) 47.8 47.8 Tie +6.3 Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1 Virginia (13)
Obama
New Hampshire (4) 48.8 46.8 Obama +2.0 +9.6 Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3 New Hampshire (4)
Obama
Wisconsin (10) 49.3 47.0 Obama +2.3 +13.9 Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2 Wisconsin (10)
Obama
Michigan (16) 48.8 44.8 Obama +4.0 +16.4 Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2 Michigan (16)
Obama
Pennsylvania (20) 49.5 44.8 Obama +4.7 +10.3 Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2 Pennsylvania (20)
Obama
North Carolina (15) 46.2 49.2 Romney +3.0 +0.3 Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8 North Carolina (15)
Obama
Iowa (6) 49.0 46.7 Obama +2.3 +9.5 Bush +0.7 Gore +0.3 Iowa (6)
Obama
Colorado (9) 47.8 47.8 Tie +9.0 Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4 Colorado (9)
Obama Obama
Nevada (6) 50.0 47.6 +2.4 +12.5 Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5 Nevada (6)
Total 263 257

Kilde: RCP

Link til RCP
Skakspillet


Den post-faktuelle virkelighed


Ingen dårlig idé at blive venner
med Mark Zuckerberg


Reklamer, ground game, social etc.


Det amerikanske valg 2012

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