A talk on emerging drivers of change that will impact manufacturing and signals from today that support this

1. Future
of
Manufacturing:
Emerging
Drivers
of
Change
Dr
Tim
Jones
–
Programme
Director
-­‐
16
May
2011

2. Future
Agenda
Future
Agenda
The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
programme
that
ran
throughout
2010
and
engaged
expert
input
from
over
140
countries
to
gain
a
unique
global
view

3. Today
we
are
using
a
few
of
these
to
sImulate
some
thoughts
Future
Agenda
Insights
52
insights
on
the
world
in
2020
across
six
key
areas
are
being
used
by
companies
around
the
world
–
some
of
these
insights
have
key
implicaIons
for
manufacturing

4. Imbalanced
PopulaIon
Growth
CertainIes
By
2020
we
will
add
another
750m
people
to
the
planet,
most
in
places
least
able
to
accommodate
them

5. Key
Resource
Constraints
CertainIes
We
will
see
economic,
physical
and
poliIcal
shortages
of
key
materials
that
will
result
in
major
changes
in
perspecIves

6. Asian
Wealth
ShiT
CertainIes
The
centre
of
gravity
of
global
wealth
is
shiTing
East
with
decreased
influence
for
the
US
and
Europe

7. Ubiquitous
Data
Access
CertainIes
We
will
be
connected
everywhere
-­‐
everything
that
can
benefit
from
a
network
connecIon
will
have
one

8. Lease
Everything
Wealth
Rising
sustainability
imperaIves
and
increasing
cost
of
ownership
shiT
the
balance
from
ownership
to
access
and
we
prefer
to
rent
than
buy

9. AcIve
Elderly
Happiness
A
wealthier,
healthier
older
generaIon
increasingly
engage
in
more
acIve
lives,
having
extended
careers
and
becoming
more
poliIcally
involved

10. Less
Energy
Wealth
Consumers
are
incenIvised
to
use
significantly
less
energy
as
escalaIng
growth
in
carbon
emissions
force
uIliIes
to
change
their
business
models

11. Solar
Sunrise
Security
Increasing
governmental
focus
on
energy
security
and
climate
change
drives
the
uptake
of
large-­‐scale
solar
as
the
leading
renewable
supply

12. Water
Management
Security
Advanced
water
purificaIon,
irrigaIon
and
desalinaIon
technologies
are
used
to
help
communiIes
to
manage
the
rising
supply
/
demand
imbalance

13. Corporate
LEGO
Security
With
more
free
agents
and
outsourcing,
non-­‐core
funcIons
within
organisaIons
are
interchangeable
and
easily
rebuilt
around
value-­‐creaIng
units

14. Bridging
The
Last
Mile
Locality
The
need
to
make
public
transport
as
flexible
as
private
focuses
a^enIon
on
the
last
mile
between
mulI-­‐modal
hubs
and
the
home
/
work
desInaIon

15. Future
of
Manufacturing:
Emerging
Drivers
of
Change
8
Key
Signals
and
Signposts

16. AddiIve
Manufacture
Signal
#1
AddiIve
manufacture
has
grown
in
the
aerospace
sector
as
companies
seek
to
reduce
the
20:1
‘buy
to
fly’
raIo

17. AddiIve
Manufacture
Signal
#1
With
lower
capital
costs
this
is
now
going
increasingly
mainstream
and
replacing
tradiIonal
techniques

18. 3D
Cladding
Signal
#2
In
the
construcIon
sector,
cast
and
3D
machined
cladding
is
opening
up
a
wide
range
of
design
opIons

19. China
Sets
The
Standards
Signal
#3
In
a
fully
fla^ened
world,
where
IP
has
less
value,
China’s
domesIc
market
will
increasingly
set
the
global
standards

20. Increasing
ProducIvity
Signal
#4
To
keep
up,
in
the
west
we
need
>double
producIvity
in
the
next
20
years
but
without
increasing
resource
consumpIon

21. Intelligent
Factories
Signal
#5
Virtual
tools
increasingly
control
flexible
physical
tools
in
the
people-­‐free
programmable
shop
floor

22. Late
CustomisaIon
Signal
#6
Further
separaIon
of
design
and
manufacture
allows
for
more
low
cost
complexity
especially
close
to
the
customer

23. Late
CustomisaIon
Signal
#6
Distributed
assembly
and
access
to
simple
technology
will
provide
new
entrants
with
more
local
supply
opIons

24. Supply
Webs
Signal
#7
Supply
webs
are
replacing
supply
chains
and
adopIng
the
principles
of
established
social
and
professional
networks

25. Mobile
Factories
Signal
#8
New
soluIons
to
the
problem
of
connecIng
to
resources
and
the
market
are
being
trailed
in
some
key
sectors

26. For
more
insights
and
free
e-­‐book
please
see
the
futureagenda
website
Tim
Jones
–
Programme
Director
?m.jones@futureagenda.org
+44
780
1755
054