N Korea Proliferation

THE DPRK : A Report on Nuclear Capabilities and Potential Nuclear Smuggling

Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Background: A Brief History ,[object Object],[object Object]

Background: Nuclear Proliferation Risks ,[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object]

Assumptions Made to Narrow Scope ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Origins of the DPRK Nuclear Program ,[object Object]

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Uranium Mining Operations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Metric Tons Amount of Uranium Fuel Required for One Complete Reactor Core Source: David Albright, Kevin O’Neill, eds., Solving the North Korean Nuclear Puzzle .

The Three Reactors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Photo Source: Globalsecurity.org

Current Reactor Status as of Jan 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Reprocessing Facility ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Observations from Dr. Hecker’s Jan 2004 Visit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The DPRK has the requisite technical knowledge and adequate facilities to make plutonium.

Nuclear Weapon Design ,[object Object],[object Object]

Past Efforts in Nuclear Weapon Design ,[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Packaging the Product ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Plutonium Oxide Powder

Plutonium Metal “Pucks” ,[object Object],[object Object],A puck of this size could easily fit in the palm of one’s hand. 6.5 cm 2 cm ,[object Object],9.8 cm 5.3 cm 1.4 cm

Detecting Plutonium “Pucks” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The DPRK is unlikely to encounter significant challenges to shipping plutonium to interested customers.

Packaging a Nuclear Weapon ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Shipping Routes ,[object Object]

Shipping Strategies ,[object Object],[object Object]

DPRK Incentives to Enter the Nuclear Black Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Deterring the DPRK from Doing Nuclear Business ,[object Object],[object Object]

Potential Customers: Terrorists ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Potential Customers: Organized Crime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Potential Customers: Iran ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Key Findings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Key Findings cont… ,[object Object],[object Object]

N Korea Proliferation

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Editor's Notes