Climate Change and Development - Updates from COP18
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Climate Change and Development - Updates from COP18
- 1. Doha Climate Gateway – COP18/COP8 Climate change and development (Eastern Europe and CIS) Daniela Carrington Climate Change Policy Advisor; UNDP-BRC BBL, Bratislava, 18 December 2012
- 2. Charting a course away from dangerous climate change: A window of opportunity of 100 months • To keep within 2C threshold CO2eqv concentration should stabilize at 450 ppm • A sustainable emissions pathway will require the world to cut of 50 percent by 2050 World population predicted to reach nearly 9 billion by 2050 McKinsey : “Resource Revolution” - Meeting the world’s energy, materials, The Stern Review demonstrated that food, and water needs greater pressure an unstable climate will undermine the on resource systems together with conditions necessary for economic increased environmental risks present a growth in both the developed and new set of leadership challenges for developing countries – cheaper to take both private and public institutions action now
- 3. Climate change - a huge developmental challenge • it tends to reinforce social inequality and injustice as it affects first and foremost the poorest countries and segments of world population, who did not cause the atmospheric GHG overload, and thereby aggravates social tensions and conflict, both nationally and internationally; • it undermines and jeopardizes the prospects for economic prosperity in the poorest parts of the world; and • it is likely to threaten the physical existence of several poor countries, in particular small island states threatened by sea level rise and countries inflicted by draughts and desertification
- 4. Post 2012 international climate change regime: Entering into new era of green global economic growth, through significant mitigation of GHG emissions and generating funding for mitigation and adaptation actions and thus creating new investment opportunities We have witnessed three economic transformations in the past century. First came the industrial revolution, then the technology revolution, then our modern era of globalization. We stand at the threshold of another great change: the age of green economics.” UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon However the failure of the politics at the moment to keep up with the science reinforces the importance of country-level action, with greater efforts in adaptation for the developing countries.
- 5. What level of “ambition”, in terms of collective emission reductions, is needed to protect global climate? UNEP Emissions gap report • The gap in 2020 for a “likely” chance of being on track >2C is 8 to 13 GtCO2e • To stay within the 2C limit global emissions - peak before 2020 • Scenarios 2C limit - global emissions in 2050 40%/1990 and 60%/ 2010 • To achieve such negative emissions is simple in analytical models, in real life a need to apply new and often unproven technologies or technology combinations at significant scale. 5
- 6. Carbon leakage Almost 1/4 of GHG emissions related to goods consumed in developed countries has been outsourced in developing Between 1990 and 2008, GHG emissions from UK production decreased by 14%; whereas GHG emissions from UK consumption increased by almost 20%
- 7. Copenhagen => Cancun => Durban => Doha Climate Gateway – COP18/CMP8 http://europeandcis.undp.org/ourwork/environment/show/ AWG - LCA – closed AWG - KP - closed ADP - The Durban Platform Agreed Outcome Amendment s to the to adopt new “protocol, (Bali Action Plan) Kyoto Protocol another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal • New Annex B force” under the Convention “Comprehensive process to • Review of the by December 2015, to come enable the full, effective and commitments in into effect from 2020 sustained implementation of 2014 the Convention through long- • SCP - 2013-2020 term cooperative action, now, • Participation in • vision –a new global up to and beyond 2012” flexible mechanisms agreement that will cover • Levy on all countries; principles • Shared Vision mechanisms • ambition – to identify • Mitigation • Carry –over ways to achieve more ambitious global emission • Adaptation Other decisions – Article 6 work reductions for post – 2020 • Technology • Finance programme, gender, COP19, etc. Work program for 2013
- 9. Climate Change Financial Architecture UNFCCC COP Standing Committee on Finance Green Climate Fund AF / SCCF GEF Fast Start Finance Multilaterals Bilaterals Mitigation Adaptation Mid-term Finance chnology, Capacity building NAMA Registry MIEs GEF NIEs Agencies Programme Countries
- 10. Supporting the EE and CIS transition to low-emission development: Governments to have an enhanced capacity to design, access finance and implement LEDS/NAMAs Regional Project enabled to make informed The countries will be policy and investment decisions, that reduce GHG emissions, reduce poverty, create new employment opportunities and green jobs and move societies towards long term sustainability. Developed: • How to Guide on Low-emission development strategies and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions: Eastern Europe and CIS – in English and Russian (other UNDP tools) • LEDS/Plans/NAMAs in Kazakhstan, Moldova, Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan, BiH, Croatia, and Turkey http://europeandcis.undp.org/home/publications/
- 11. Transition to green development Will require a mix of policy instruments: • A carbon price should be applied as widely as possible, starting with removal of fossil fuel subsidies • Speeding up the emergence and deployment of new technologies (energy-related R&D) • Avoiding deforestation and adapting to CC • Reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services (behavior change); 3R (reduce, reuse, recycle) • Increases in and reallocation of the financial resources • International cooperation Ensuring a smooth labour market transition
- 12. Main steps in the development of LEDS: Push forward low emission economic development in an systematic manner, so that a sustainable and low carbon future can be shaped Decision to Coordination 1. Scoping and develop planning mechanism LEDS/NAMAs 2. Development or 5. Implementation, evaluation of baseline National monitoring and MRV Rio +20; and LED GHG expertise Sustainable emission scenario energy for all Identification of 4. Assessment of 3. Determination of International financing of mitigation mitigation options NAMAs requiring options expertise support List of NAMAs/PAMs
- 13. Green Growth - Inspirational goal • Top national agenda for South Korea - new economic development paradigm to solve triple crunch: energy, climate, and economy • Life-style Enthusiasm to show your personal involvement Great leaders inspire actions
- 14. Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action, European Commission keynotes the Chatham House conference 'Climate Change 2012: Security, resilience and diplomacy' http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcI1rkGsEW4
- 15. Thank you!
- 16. Low Carbon Development Strategy A long-term strategy, for the low-carbon development of the developing country in the context of its broader SD strategies, including an emission pathway (domestically implemented or internationally supported) Developed countries: zero-emission plans (to ensure compliance with their legally binding commitments) Economic The EU has set the goal to reduce Social Growth greenhouse gas emissions to 80%- Equity 95% below 1990 levels by 2050. The SD EU wrote low-carbon Roadmap 2050 which explores how this goal can be achieved, including development of Environmental national LEDS. Protection
- 17. EU ambition: to become the leading climate friendly region in the world • EU pledge: independent target of A Road map for moving to a 20%/1990/2020; offer to move up to 30% comprehensive low-carbon economy in 2050: (80-95% • Legislation is already in place since by 2050) 2009 to meet a 20% emission reduction: •Feasible - Cost-effective pathway: - 25% in 2020, - 40% in 2030, -60% the Climate and Energy Package in 2040 1. Monitoring Mechanism Decision (2010) (1999, 2004) 6. F-gases regulation (2006) •Requires all sectors contribution, to 2. EU emissions trading system 7. Fuel quality directive (2008) a varying degree & pace (2003, 2008) 8. CCS regulation (2008) 3. Effort sharing decision (2008) 9. Ecodesign Directive (2010) •National and regional LEDS 4. Renewables & biofuels (2008) 10. Buildings Directive (2010) 100% 100% 5. CO2 and cars (2008) and vans Power Sector Options for addressing carbon leakage: 80% Current policy 80% further support to energy-intensive industries, continued 60% Residential & Tertiary 60% free allowances; adding to the costs of imports to Industry 40% 40% compensate for the advantage of avoiding low-carbon Transport policies; taking measures to bring the rest of the world 20% 20% Non CO2 Agriculture closer to EU levels of effort Non CO2 Other Sectors 0% 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 18. NAMAs under Copenhagen Accord – Durban Outcome China will endeavor to lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45% by 2020 compared to the 2005 level, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020 and increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares and forest stock volume by 1.3 billion cubic meters by 2020 from the 2005 levels. South Africa India India will endeavour to reduce the emissions1 intensity of its GOP by 20-25% by 2020 in comparison to the 2005 level. Brazil Russia 15-25 %/1990/2020 the range of the GHG emission reductions will depend on the following conditions: - Appropriate accounting of the potential of Russia’s forestry in frame of contribution in meeting the obligations of the anthropogenic emissions reduction; - Undertaking by all major emitters the legally binding obligations to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions.
- 21. World population predicted to reach nearly 9 billion by 2050 Carrying Capacity of the Earth is 1.5 – 18 billion people –pending on consumption levels (food, water, energy 20 Population 15 (billions) Human 10 5 0 Source: “UN Report 2004 data” http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbilpart1.pdf.
Editor's Notes
- The world only has 100-150 months to dramatically change the world’s energy supply trajectory and limit temperature rise to a "safe" 2 °C. Action – investment decisions that put the world on a different – more efficient resource use production and consumption path - is needed now.Significant investments are needed Stern review – cheaper to take action now. Investment decisions now will affect 2050 targets, action now is cheaper than inaction or late action;The transition to a low carbon world will transform our whole economy, the way we all live and work; Low-carbon growth is a new national development paradigm that creates new growth engines and increase of green jobs, green technology and clean energy Additionally: Population growth to 9 bln 2050 and;pressure on resource systems - McKinsey “Resource Revolution: Meeting the world’s energy, materials, food, and water needs greater pressure on resource systems together with increased environmental risks present a new set of leadership challenges for both private and public institutions; economic crisis
- Considerable part of resource/material/energy efficiency (MRE) gains in developed countries has been achieved not by “real physical savings” resulting from changes in production and consumption patterns/modes, but by “outsourcing” very MRE-intensive production to developing countries (almost 1/4 of GHG emissions related to goods consumed in developed countries has been outsourced). According to the UK DEFRA, between 1990 and 2008, GHG emissions from UK production decreased by 14%; whereas GHG emissions from UK consumption increased by almost 20%. A team of scientists at Oxford even estimate that under a correct account, allowing for imports and exports, Britain’s carbon footprint is nearly twice as high as the official figure (i.e. 21 t CO2eq/person/year instead of 11) (cited in MacKay, 2009: 93). The share of CO2 net imports to total carbon emissions of individual developed countries has recently ranged from about 15% for Greece to almost 60% for Switzerland (Aichele and Felbermayr, 2011: 13). Germany, one of the most resource efficient and engineering-wise sophisticated economies, increased its domestic MRE efficiency by almost 14 per cent in the period 2000–2007. However, when calculated as total material requirement, including indirect material flows through the “ecological rucksack of international trade”, material efficiency only improved by 4 per cent and the physical volume of total material/resource consumption actually grew by 134 million tons (Simon and Dosch, 2010; and Center for Resource Efficiency and Climate Protection, 2010).
- Countries from the region that have taken voluntary commitments under the Copenhagen Accord are: Armenia (Implementation of “The national programme on energy saving and renewable energy of the Republic of Armenia”; Transport sector: expansion of electric transport and increase of natural gas share in motor fuel; Decrease of methane emissions from solid municipal waste; Restoration of forest); Georgia (Amongst others: To achieve a measurable, reportable and verifiable deviation from the baseline (below business as usual levels) supported and enabled by technology and capacity-building; To develop a low carbon growth plan and low carbon strategy, in particular through the use of renewable energy investments and global cooperation.); Moldova (A reduction of no less than 25% of the base year 1990 level total national GHG emissions by 2020…); Tajikistan (improvement of energy efficiency technologies in building and construction; development of low-carbon growth through the introduction of a renewable energy strategy); FYR of Macedonia (Amongst others: GHG reductions in electric power sector; GHG emission reductions in industrial energy transformation and heating sector; Improvement of efficiency and energy savings; GHG emissions in transport; GHG emissions in waste sector).
- Regional project : “Supporting RBEC transition to Low-emission development”;Country driven and country specific;Tools on how to develop a LEDS/NAMA in place;Started in Kazakhstan, Moldova, Turkey; Uzbekistan, BiH and Croatia, and all the rest of the region upon request ;Awareness and knowledge low, need for more trainings;Donors cooperation still a problem
- Brazil has established a stock exchange for voluntary carbon units which may precede a domestic trading scheme.China has made concrete steps towards the creation of regional ETS in various cities and provinces India has not shown much propensity for a domestic ETS due both to political and institutional reasons. However, trading schemes for energy efficiency and renewable energy are already in place Kazakhstan has very definite plans for an ETS, and has in fact a draft law in parliamentEnsuring a smooth labour market transitionGreener growth will see new jobs created, including skilled jobs in emerging green innovative activities. But some jobs will be at risk so there is a need to facilitate the re-allocation of workers from contracting to expanding sectors, such as those that replace polluting activities with cleaner alternatives or provide environmental services.Labour market policies should focus on preserving employment, not jobs. They need to ensure that workers and firms are able to adjust quickly to changes brought about by the greening of the economy, including by seizing new opportunities. By helping workers to move from jobs in contracting sectors to jobs in expanding sectors, they can also help to assure a just sharing of adjustment costs occasioned by the transition.2 New skills will be needed and this will require appropriate education policies. While many existing skills will remain appropriate, skill mismatches and gaps may emerge. Training and re-training programmes will be a key component of labour market policies. The scale of adjustment should not be overstated. For example, significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved with only limited effects on the pace of employment growth. Indeed labour market performance can improve if revenues from carbon pricing are used to promote labour demand. Furthermore, this does not take into account the positive impact on employment as a result of strategies fostering sources of green growth.Approximately $7 trillion of global annual cash flows by 2020 will be tied to a carbon-intensive economy. Sound policy can guide these investments toward a green economy, without slowing income growth. Performance standards for appliances, equipment, buildings, cars, and trucks, have both environmental and economic benefits. Sound economic signals can reduce waste, correct market failures, promote efficiency and spur innovation. Investments need to be reoriented to reduce emissions; with well designed policies
- Follows the main principles for development of a strategy, following an established methodology or going its own wayThe goal in accordance with the GHG reduction commitment/goals and national prioritiesDevelopment of GHG emissions scenariosAssessment of the sectors of the economy and their reduction potential (incl. toward changed climate)Possible measures in different sector and cross sectoralEstimation of the financing needs, and economic impacts of shifting to low-emission development paths• Mechanisms for achieving it: investment, incentives, financial and economic policy initiatives (international support)• Consult and raise awareness for informed national consensus for policy actions and new investmentsEstablish collaboration mechanism with all stakeholdersDevelop relevant institutional arrangementsestablish a legal and regulatory framework Accumulate experience from other countries as well as national demonstrations and pilotsAssure adequate monitoring systemPush forward low emission economic development in an systematic manner, so that a sustainable and low carbon future can be shaped
- S. Korea: changing peoples behavior and way of thinking; creating a new civilization;Russia: Vladimir Putin went to a meeting of the Security council on new Russian hybrid car, which will be produced this year
- Interest to explore pathways for LED growing rapidly;>90 countries registered their NAMAQs with UNFCCC (51 developing of witch 25% low-income countries)
- Climate and Energy Package: "20-20-20" targets. These are: A reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels; 20% of EU energy consumption to come from renewable resources; A 20% reduction in primary energy use compared with projected levels, to be achieved by improving energy efficiency. More ambitious than KP: e.g. inclusion of international aviation, LULUCF, higher CDM quality standards, supplementarity defined, recognition of early action (Kyoto bonus), no carry over of AAUs, single base year 1990, annual compliance cycle, higher penalties for non-compliance in emissions trading sectors, take account of direct and indirect effects of biofuels on land use change.Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage 2010Since the EU policy was agreed, circumstances have been changing rapidly. We have seen an economic crisis of unprecedented scale. It has put huge pressure onto businesses and communities across Europe, as well as causing huge stress on public finances. But at the same time, it has confirmed that there are huge opportunities for Europe in building a resource-efficient society.There is now a widespread consensus that the development of resource-efficient and green technologies will be a major driver of growth. As countries worldwide sought to boost their economies in the crisis through stimulus packages, there was a clear pattern of investment being directed towards infrastructure for less polluting transport modes, such as public transport, intelligent traffic management systems (ITS), low-carbon energy production, smart electricity grids and clean transport- and energy-related R&D. Signs of the transition towards a low carbon economy are emerging across the world, with countries attracted to the greener option also because of its potential to create large numbers of new jobs.The total cost of a 30% reduction, including the costs to go to 20%, is now estimated at €81 billion, or 0.54% of GDP Options for addressing carbon leakage: The main issue for carbon leakage is the competitive difference between the EU and third countries. There are, therefore, broadly three ways in which carbon leakage could, if it can be demonstrated, be tackled: by giving further support to energy-intensive industries through continued free allowances; by adding to the costs of imports to compensate for the advantage of avoiding low-carbon policies; or by taking measures to bring the rest of the world closer to EU levels of effort.
- AR4 has recommended that Annex I Parties should reduce their emissions at least by of 25-40% in the short term by 2020.
- 80 per cent of global coal demand till 2030 is projected to come from China and India alone (IEA, 2007: 43). The Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology is at early experimental stage and thus still largely unproven, absorbs at least 20 per cent of energy generated by the concerned power plants, reduces the efficiency rate of the whole plant by at least a quarter and might never be available at sufficient scale in the not too distant future.20 Yet, as further elaborated on below, given current and future trends in the strong domination of coal-fired power plants in energy-related carbon emissions, notably in China and India, global research and technology efforts need to focus on neutralizing these emissions.
- There are 200,000 new people born to this planet every day. Current population is 7 billion; Changing demographics have consequences for natural resources.