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2018 DRR Financing 5.6 Maxim Bouev
MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 2
MAIN POINTS
•  David Simmons: «Historically catastrophe insurance has focussed on property
loss, but the scope is far wider, e.g. disaster response»
•  Modelling catastrophe risks is part of a wider problem – the correct accounting of
economic risks that a country, a region or a city faces
•  For many countries in the region in question we do not still have a reliable risk
model
•  Existing modelling do not take into account second- (and higher) order effects
when assessing risks, and probable maximum loss
•  Second-order effects depend on critical infrastructure (CI) and its importance for
impact diffusion pathway
•  Network analysis helps to model that
•  Even if we have a perfect model – what if central points in CI lie beyond country
borders?
MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 3
MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 4
Second order effects: Oh et al (2010)
MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 5
Higher order effects: Kadri et al (2014)
MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 6
Critical infrastructure and EVD spread: Fang et al (2016)
MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 7
Centrality in network analysis: Tapiocozzo (2015)
MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 8
Central points in CI may be located beyond country borders
MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 9
+44 207 802 22 80

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2018 DRR Financing 5.6 Maxim Bouev

  • 3. MAIN POINTS •  David Simmons: «Historically catastrophe insurance has focussed on property loss, but the scope is far wider, e.g. disaster response» •  Modelling catastrophe risks is part of a wider problem – the correct accounting of economic risks that a country, a region or a city faces •  For many countries in the region in question we do not still have a reliable risk model •  Existing modelling do not take into account second- (and higher) order effects when assessing risks, and probable maximum loss •  Second-order effects depend on critical infrastructure (CI) and its importance for impact diffusion pathway •  Network analysis helps to model that •  Even if we have a perfect model – what if central points in CI lie beyond country borders? MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 3
  • 4. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 4 Second order effects: Oh et al (2010)
  • 5. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 5 Higher order effects: Kadri et al (2014)
  • 6. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 6 Critical infrastructure and EVD spread: Fang et al (2016)
  • 7. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 7 Centrality in network analysis: Tapiocozzo (2015)
  • 8. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 8 Central points in CI may be located beyond country borders
  • 9. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 9 +44 207 802 22 80