Aligica & Tarko - The Uses of Austerity, Romania 2007-2011
1. The Uses of Austerity: Romania
Impressive improvisation on the short run, dark
structural clouds on the long run horizon
Dragos Paul Aligica
Vlad Tarko
George Mason University, Mercatus Center
2. Summary
• Theory: the “unpleasant arithmetic”
• Romania as a perfect illustration
• Causes of the crisis
• Effects of the crisis
– Government response to the crisis
– Private sector response to the crisis
6. The crisis set-up: Government
irresponsibility
• 2007-2008:
– Growth at 6-7% GDP
– Deficit increases from 3% to 6% of GDP
– Inflation increases from 5% to 8%
• 2009:
– Growth: -6.6% GDP
– Deficit increases to 9% of GDP
9. Government expenditure & revenue
(billions euro)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008
2005
2006
2007
2009
2003
2001
2004
2002
2010
Total general government expenditure
Total general government revenue
10. Government expenditure & revenue
(% GDP)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
2008
2002
2005
2010
2007
2003
2004
2006
2009
Total general government expenditure
Total general government revenue
11. Government deficit (% of GDP):
Net lending (+)/Net borrowing (-)
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
15. Why?
• Romania looks like a textbook illustration
of Sargent & Wallace’s theory –
obviously, that wasn’t the intention
• Underlining public choice dynamic:
– 2009 was an election year
• “Impressive short-term improvisation”
– From a public choice perspective one could
have expected much worse! E.g. massive
inflation as in the 1990s.
16. IMF loan deal (May 2009)
• The good:
– Commitments to low inflation
– Commitments to cut govt. spending
• The bad:
– Recentralization of the public sector (in order
to be able to implement the cuts fast)
– Govt. spending cuts:
• Done indiscriminately across the board
• No structural reforms
17. Real inflation rate
(annual average rate of change %, Harmonised Indices of
Consumer Prices)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
18. Austerity measures: Government
spending cuts
• Public sector wages cut by 25%
• Number of state employees reduced by
~200,000 in the 2009-2011 period
• Unemployment and child benefits cut by 15%
• Stopping pensions increases at the 2010 levels
• “Elimination, merger or reorganization” of 141
government agencies
• Estimated savings (according to govt.):
– 700 million euros in 2010, i.e. ~3% of govt.
expenditures
20. Austerity measures: Tax increases
• VAT increased from 19% to 24%
• Gas taxes and sin taxes
• Taxes paid by physical persons who own more
than one house and for larger cars
• Taxing pensions for the mandatory state
medical insurance
• Increasing the tax base by taxing
– interest,
– food stamps,
– various other sources of personal income
21. Anti-tax evasion measures
• Estimated tax evasion: 35%
• Measures:
– Rising the budget of the National Agency of
Fiscal Administration
– Increased border controls
– Close monitoring of the transportation of
specially taxed products (alcohol, cigarettes
and gas)
– Accounting requirements for small firms have
been simplified
22. Government expenditure & revenue
(billions euro)
60
50
40
30 After
austerity
20 measures
10
0
2008
2005
2006
2007
2009
2003
2001
2004
2002
2010
Total general government expenditure
Total general government revenue
37. Conclusions
• The private sector adapted rapidly to the
crisis
• This is mainly a government crisis as it
stretched beyond its means, in the 2006-
2008 period, and has difficulties
readjusting