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Future of Planned Communities - J Heid
1. the
EVOLUTION
of the Planned Community
10
10 Slides
7
7 Minutes
DISTILLED
6
2
6 Questions
2 Futures
27 October 2011
Jim Heid, Founder
Urban Green ®
2. Do we still need
#1 planned communities?
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
3. Do we still need
#1 planned communities?
YES.
“The U.S. is now on track to
reach 400 Million residents
by mid century – we actually
add more people than
China from now to 2050.”
Robert E Lang
Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, The Lincy Institute
4. Planned Community as a Better Alternative
Planned Ad Hoc
Communities Subdivisions
Multiple Housing Yes – 5 minimum; price, life One builder, changed
Options stage and own/ rent options elevations
Integrated hierarchy and
Open Space A park
lifestyles
Third places & daily goods
Community Hardware Limited
services
Stewardship Community Life and
None
environmental
Sustainability Integrated , systems approach Checklist approach
5. Why does right, feel so ….wrong?
#2
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
6. #2 Why does right, feel so … wrong?
IT’S NOT JUST A FEELING
A Decade of New Home Sales 2001-2010
US Total1 8,580,000 %
Top Ten Planned Communities2 130,386 1.5%
Top Twenty Planned Communities3 187,687 2.2%
All Planned Communities (estimated)4 800,636 9.3%
1 Source: US Census Bureau
2 Souce: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2010
3 Source: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2007, 2008-2010 extrapolated by UrbanGreen
4 Source: UrbanGreen, extrapolated from RCLCo data by 2001-2010
7. #3 Infill or greenfield?
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
9. #3 Infill or greenfield?
BOTH.
Population
growth1 by
metropolitan
location
2000-2010
=1,000,000 Urban Core Inner Ring Mature Emerging Exurb
People (-.3 M) Suburb Suburb Suburb
(+5.9 M) (+3.5 M) (+5.1 M) (+1.5 M)
1 Source: Robert E Lang. Based on 416 counties in the 50 largest metro areas. These contain 53.7% of total U.S. population.
10. #4 Place or strategy?
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
11. #4 Place or strategy?
DEPENDS.
• Your context and what you do with it
• How you engage potential partners
• Sustainability gateways
• How you ‘craft’ community
12. #5 Can community be planned?
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
13. #5 Can community be planned?
IF WE ADAPT.
….then
14. #5 Can community be planned?
IF WE ADAPT.
….then going forward…..
16. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New Retrofit
Communities Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
17. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New Retrofit
Communities Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
18. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New Retrofit
Communities Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
Create Add Leverage
CRAFTING COMMUNITY
Village Center Urban Center Urban Core
19. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New Retrofit
Communities Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
Create Add Leverage
CRAFTING COMMUNITY
Village Center Urban Center Urban Core
STRUCTURE PRIVATE PRIVATE/Public Public/Private
20. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
New Retrofit
Communities Communities Infill Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
Create Add Leverage
CRAFTING COMMUNITY
Village Center Urban Center Urban Core
STRUCTURE Private Private/Public Public/Private
SUSTAINABLE
GATEWAY Stormwater Jobs Housing Transportation
21. #6 What Does it All Mean?
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
23. Because Greenfield
Planned Communities
represent a superior
social & environmental
alternative to sprawl
they should grow as a
percentage of greenfield
development, as total
greenfield development
diminishes
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
24. Because Retrofit + Infill
Planned Communities
represent the best
method to regenerate
urban areas quickly,
and at scale
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
25. Because Retrofit + Infill
Planned Communities
represent the best
method to regenerate
urban areas quickly,
and at scale
they provide a renewed
purpose for our
industry to make a
difference.
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
26. #6 What Does it All Mean?
NEW OPPORTUNITY.
New
communities
Outlook - Limited to Good
Retrofit
communities
Outlook - Very Good
Infill
communities
Outlook - Good
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011