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Nestor Marquez WFSF Presentation Mexico 2019 - FUTURE OF WORK 2050 v3 English

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Néstor Márquez conference on the Future of Work and his research project at Tecnológico de Monterrey, School of Humanities - Science, Technology and Society. Spanish and english version available above).
Presented at de World Future Studies Federation (WFSF) - GLOBAL CONFERENCE 2019.

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Nestor Marquez WFSF Presentation Mexico 2019 - FUTURE OF WORK 2050 v3 English

  1. 1. The Future of Work Tecnológico de Monterrey - Escuela de Humanidades y Educación - Ciencia, Tecnología y Sociedad
 Campus Ciudad de México. Mayo 14, 2019. Doctorant Student: Néstor Márquez - Director: Dra. Natalia Vargas - Lecturers: Dr. Javier Serrano - Dr. Jose Santillan - Dr. Federico Stezano.
  2. 2. PROMOTER - CONSULTANT - RESEARCHER ➤ CEO: ➤ Future Experts ( ➤ Institute for Exponential Growth ( ➤ Professor Digital Transformation: ➤ Tecnologico de Monterrey 
 (+ Program Director, Digital Transformation Diploma) ➤ Universidad Católica Argentina Business School (+ Program Director, Digital Transformation Diploma). ➤ Panamerican Business School ➤ ENAE Business School (España). ➤ Matemático Aplicado - MBA - PHD © ➤ 4 hijos: 29-28-4-2. ➤ Former Presidennt: ➤ Wunderman México and ➤ Mexican Association of Direct & Interactive Marketing, ➤ Research Committee del IAB México (former member of the IAB Mexico board) ➤ Former: ➤ Data Scientist Wunderman Latam ➤ DuPont, development manager. ➤ Accenture Senior Consultant. ➤ DuPont, Leader Manufacturing Systems. ➤ Ad-hoc researcher Argentine Institute od Artificial Intelligence, Sociedad Argentina de informativa e investigación Operativa (SADIO).
  3. 3. Future of Work 2050. Technology develops rapidly and significantly transforms work. ✤ These changes would be more important around 2050, when this development would reach a relevant point (Kurzweil, 2005). Research Problem La tecnología tiene el potencial de liberar al ser humano del yugo del trabajo extremo y alienante, y llevarlo a un mundo mejor. Ese mundo altamente automatizado podría convertirse en una panacea para pocos. * Internet of Things, Augmented or Virtual Reality, 3D Printing, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
  4. 4. Future of Work 2050. This situation is particularly significant for a country like Mexico. ✤ Mexico - traditionally a labor provider - vs. Central countries - mostly leading technology producers. ✤ The studies are mainly carried out by the central countries (exceptions ILO - Millennium Project - World Bank - OECD - CEPAL). Research Problem
  5. 5. Future of Work 2050. Does the subject prepared -personally and collectively- to make the necessary political decisions to face these challenges? What future do we want for the human being? The accelerated transformation would represent a social urgency, a horizon of uncertainty for individuals, organizations and states. Given this scenario, this investigation considers:#DoNotForgetHumans
  6. 6. Future of Work 2050. 
 The transformation of work in Mexico, in 2050 1
 Work Evolution &
 Properties 2
 Work Transformation Industrial Revolutions 5 2050 as future 6 Mexico as a stage From the Revolution to FreeTrade.. 7 Narrativas: Institucionales* 4
 Neoliberalism as temporality 3
 Accelerated Technology Development Moore Law’s
 Singularity. Como indicios de la Transformación. Utopia vs. Distopia Future Design. Main Categories !6 Analytical Framework: Context for Transformation. *Universidades, Centros de Investigación y Organismos Multilaterales
  7. 7. Future of Work 2050. Main Categories !7
  8. 8. Future of Work 2050. Tasks (Physical and mental effort)> Production of Goods and Services> Address human needs and desires. Activity> Livelihood> Work to live or live from the work of others .. It is important to further highlight the collective / social nature of work. Work: fundamental to meet human needs and aspirations. Naturaleza Colectiva/Social del trabajo: División social del trabajo como marcador de cambio histórico, sistema de relaciones sociales, conflictos y los antagonismos que derivan de esas relaciones. Analytical Framework > Major Categories > 1. The Work:: 1.1 - The stages in the evolution of work. 1.2 - Job properties.
  9. 9. Future of Work 2050. Retrospective of the historical
 transformations of work. ✤ The idea of work arises from a Tripail torture (three sticks) that produced physical pain and from these Work and Travel have the roots of Tripaliare. In those days working and traveling left the body hurting like tortured. ✤ In the Catholic religion, work is part of the divine punishment for original sin. El Futuro del Trabajo en el 2050. Analytical Framework> Main Categories> 1. The Work > 1.1 Evolution
  10. 10. Future of Work 2050. Understand from where the definitions that define us and affect our daily life arise - Work in Antiquity until 1674; - Modern idea of work (1675-1789) *; - The metamorphosis of work (1789-1850); * - Exalted work (1850-1945); * - Computed work (1945-2010); - Work in post-scarcity era (2010-2050). Analytical Framework> Main Categories> 1. The Work > 1.1 Evolution
  11. 11. Future of Work 2050. 1.2.3
 Social Mobility. 1.2.1
 Sustentation. 1.2.2 
 Identity 1.2.4
 Integrative and Communitarial 1.2.5
 Work is much more than a productive activity PROPERTIES: Work as a source of: !11 * Históricamente y 
 a partir de la posibilidad 
 de la amplificación humana
 (Transhumanismo) Analytical Framework> Main Categories> 1. The Work > 1.2
  12. 12. Future of Work 2050. 
 First we shape our tools and then they shape us (McLuhan) Revoluciones Industriales: ✤ 2.1 - Primera (1750-1830). ✤ 2.2 - Segunda (1830-1914). ✤ 2.3 - Tercera (1914-1980). ✤ 2.4 - Cuarta (1980-). Transformation: complete or significant change (object of study) is improvement / deterioration of work capacity.
 For Martin Ford (2015), it is a new digital paradigm (disruptive changes) and is characterized by its speed, extension, and impact on society. Cybernetics from Norbert Wiener. 12 Norbert Wiener. Analytical Framework > Major Categories> 2. Transformation of Work:
  13. 13. Future of Work 2050. Everything changes too fast: what do we do? 4.1 - Tools and machines. 4.2 - Finite automata. 4.3 - Intelligent agents - or artificial intelligence. 4.4 - Moore's Law. 4.5 - Digitalization of society and business. 4.6 - The Technological Singularity. Bengali Nobel Prize Amartya Sen * (2018), who argues that the important thing is not the development itself but how that development influences the real possibilities of people. !13 Ley de Moore y la Singularidad Tecnológica. Analytical Framework> Main Categories> 3. Accelerated pace of technology: * * Amartya Sen: Economista, profesor universitario, filósofo, escritor y sociólogo. Premio Nobel de econnomía.
  14. 14. Future of Work 2050. While liberalism has its origins in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, neoliberalism means the resurgence of ideas associated with classical liberalism - laissez faire - or liberalism of the 1970s and 1980s, associated with a reformed and "friendly" version ", which includes some limited level of interventionism. The impact on work in neoliberal times 3.1 - Protestant work ethic 3.2 - Social Contract. 3.3 - New deal. 3.4 - The Third Way. 3.5 - Hacker Ethics. 3.7 - Accelerationism. 3.8 - Modern Monopolies. 3.9 - Universal Basic Income (RBU). Analytical Framework> Main Categories> 4. Neoliberalism as temporarily
  15. 15. Future of Work 2050. Extreme poverty is reduced but the gap grows !15
  16. 16. Future of Work 2050. Income gains not much distributed after 1970’s !16 New Deal Welfare Sate NeoLiberalism
 (Reagan-Tacher …)
  17. 17. Future of Work 2050. 
 The possibility that the human being ceases to be the most intelligent on earth 5.1.1 - Neo-Luddites. 
 5.1.2 - Technoprogresism.
 5.1.3 - Techno-Utopianism.5.1.4 - Posthumanism. 5.2.1 - The future does not exist. 5.2.2 - Any idea on the future should seem ridiculous. 5.2.3 - We create tools and then mold us. 17 2050 Analytical Framework> Categories> 5. 2050 as a future This research assumes that by 2050, digital technology would be at a time of significant development - Technological Singularity or not. The level of development of the machines would be so significant that it would bring very important changes, in work, in addition to other aspects of personal and collective life, companies, the fields of economy and politics, among others (Kurzweil, 2005).
  18. 18. Future of Work 2050. 2050 as a future and its ideologies !18 And what is the desired future for human beings? The abundance utopia. Vs. The slavery dystopia. Analytical Framework> Categories> 5. 2050 as a future
  19. 19. Future of Work 2050. 
 Historical articulation between economic and political transformations. !19 Mexican Revolution Free Trade treaty The new Wall Analytical Framework> Categories> 6. México as scenery. 3.6.1 - The great challenges of Mexico. 3.6.2 - Model of sustained development and free trade. 3.6.3 - Privatization of Mexican companies. 3.6.4 - Trade unionism and labor markets. 3.6.5 - Trade unionism and neoliberalism. 3.6.6 - Trade unionism a sleeping giant.
  20. 20. Future of Work 2050. Some aspects of the Research project !20
  21. 21. Future of Work 2050. 
 Conversations on work sometimes are superficial, disjointed and decontextualized. ✤ Sensationalist handling of the subject: random numbers are thrown. ✤ These studies arise from technology-producing countries (and companies) and not from those that could be main victims of those labor replacement process. BID: El Futuro del Trabajo en América Latina y el Caribe (2019) 21 4.1.1 - State of Art:
  22. 22. Future of Work 2050. Research questions. !22
  23. 23. Future of Work 2050. from the analysis of the narratives of the key institutions * with greater relevance in the field (universities, research centers and international organizations) 
 How to account for the process and factors after the transformation of work - and its properties - and the implications for people and communities? 5.1.1 - Research question: * Universidades, Centros de Investigación y Organismos Multilaterales, tanto nacionales como internacionales.
  24. 24. Future of Work 2050. ✤ What has been the historical link between work and technology? ✤ What would be the repercussions of technology on work according to the different theoretical contributions? ✤ Are there approaches that account for the effects of accelerated technology development on job properties? ✤ What is the position-narratives of the Key Institutions* in this regard? ✤ Is it possible to identify and analyze some impacts of these approaches in Mexico? ✤ Is it possible to identify decisions and actions that, guided by these narratives, have taken different actors - working subjects, organizations and governments? ✤ Is it possible to build an alternative reference framework that accounts for the effects of this transformation? And if so, what is its empirical potential? ✤ If this empirical potential is confirmed: Would the findings of this analytical alternative contribute to the awareness process of working subjects, organizations and governments? ✤ And if so, this alternative framework would provide significant lines for informed decision-making by working subjects, government organizations-about their future. 
 The impact of past definitions on work and preferable futures 5.1.2 - Specific Questions: * Universities, Research Centers and Multilateral Organizations, both national and international.
  25. 25. Future of Work 2050. The field work: here are the institutional narratives to be evaluated !25
  26. 26. Future of Work 2050. 
 Narratives of key institutions around the transformation of work - and its properties - from reports and pronouncements ✤ In this work, the unit of analysis corresponds to the Narratives of the Key Institutions under study: ✤ Universities, research centers, multilateral organizations. ✤ In all Global, Regional and Local cases. ✤ The Information Units will consist of the reports and pronouncements of these institutions. ✤ Analysis period 2018-2020. With focus on 2019. ✤ Analyze in the reports how the themes of the future of work evolved - properties. ✤ Analysis within segments and between segments. 26 5.3 - Unidad de Análisis y Unidad de Investigación.
  27. 27. Future of Work 2050. A matrix that concentrates the data of all the research and that allows to understand the Work Transformation and its properties Años 2018 2019* 2020 Category Work … Accelerated Development of Technology Sub Category Sustenta tion Identity Mobility Integration Symbiotic Unniversities Global Regional Local Research Centers Global Regional Local Multilateral organizations Global Regional Local !27 5.4 - Instrumento o matriz de análisis
  28. 28. Future of Work 2050. Work Plan. !28
  29. 29. Future of Work 2050. The project in an image Pasado FuturoPresente Institutions Universities, Research Centers Multi-lateral organizations Globally, Regionally and Locally. Revoluciones Industriales. Propiedades del Trabajo Evolución del Trabajo y la Ideología Future Studies Scenarios: -Abundance (utopia) -Unemployment (dystopia) -Singularity (unexpected). Futures: ✤ Possible ✤ Preferable ✤ Desirable Work Transformation and its impact on Properties (Framework) Future of Work in MX in 2050. Analysis of Narratives at 3 Levels. !29 6 - Work Plan.
  30. 30. Future of Work 2050. Cronograma Project Stage Timing Improvement of the analytical framework and comprehensive review of the state of the matter. July-Oct, 2019. Research Design: Universities, Research Centers and Multilateral Organizations - Local, Regional and Global - 2018,2019,2020 * (focus on this last year). Nov.-March 2020. Evaluación y significación de los reportes. March-Dec. 2020. Conclusiones. Jan.-Jun. 2021. Presentación de la investigación. Jul. 2021 !30 6 - Work Plan.
  31. 31. The Future of Work Tecnológico de Monterrey - Escuela de Humanidades y Educación - Ciencia, Tecnología y Sociedad
 Campus Ciudad de México. Mayo 14, 2019. Doctorant Student: Néstor Márquez - Director: Dra. Natalia Vargas - Lecturers: Dr. Javier Serrano - Dr. Jose Santillan - Dr. Federico Stezano.