Todd noell, South Corridor Development Summary

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SOUTH CORRIDOR
DEVELOPMENT
SUMMARY
URBAN LAND INSTITUTE
112 KROG STREET NE SUITE 14 | ATLANTA, GA 30307 CONTACT | 404.681.0006

2. NCG OVERVIEW
• Noell Consulting Group
• Real estate consultant based in Atlanta
• Conduct market analyses and consumer
research for both public sector and private
sector clients
• Conduct numerous studies along transit corridors
and locations
• Studied South Corridor since 2002
• Three other planned corridors
• Conducted numerous TOD analyses in
Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San
Francisco, Atlanta, Raleigh & Charlotte

3. OVERVIEW OF THE
SOUTH LINE
• Corridor opened in
November 2007
• First corridor in five
corridor system
• Includes 11 stations
outside of Center City
• Follows existing rail
line to the south

4. SOUTH LINE CONTEXT
• Using existing rail line
• Bringing people to the
CORE
corridor, not the
corridor to people
• Corridor does not traverse
any major employment
cores outside of Center CORE
City CORE
• Higher incomes largely to
the east
• Crosses/accesses freeway
only at the ends of corridor CORE

5. SOUTH LINE CONTEXT
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6. CONTEXT—TIMING WAS TOUGH
Mecklenburg Employment Growth
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mecklenburg Office Absorption
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
-500,000
-1,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

7. SOUTH LINE SUCCESS TO DATE
• In spite of challenges,
TOD has been quite
strong
• Completed Projects
• $341M in tax value
added
• 2,168 MF units
• 9.2% capture
• 308,400 SF office
• 1.9% capture
• 252,000 SF retail
• 2.5% capture

8. TALE OF THREE SEGMENTS
• South End
• Carson • East-West
• Bland • New Bern
• Mid-Corridor Stations
• Scaleybark • Tyvola
• Woodlawn • Archdale
• Southern Stations
• Arrowood • I-485
• Sharon West

9. SOUTH END
SEGMENT
• Completed Projects
• $324M in tax value
added
• 95% of corridor total
• 1,976 MF units
• 91% of corridor total
• 308,400 SF office
• 100% of corridor total
• 190,300 SF retail
• 76% of corridor total

10. SOUTH END SUCCESS
• Leasing agents & Realtors
• transit access important for 30% -
40% of residents
• South End rental apartments
• 12.5% premium over inner ring, non-
rail projects
• Achieving rents that allow more urban
product ($1.52/SF)
• Office & retail
• Growing design district, restaurants/
nightlife, urban Lowe’s
• Commercial generally not achieving
premiums over other intown cores

11. MID-CORRIDOR
• Completed Projects
• $1.76M in tax value
added
• 1% of corridor total
• 0 MF units
• 0% of corridor total
• 0 SF office
• 0% of corridor total
• 7,150 SF retail
• 3% of corridor total

12. SOUTHERN
STATIONS
• Completed Projects
• $15.6M in tax value
added
• 5% of corridor total
• 192 MF units
• 9% of corridor total
• 0 SF office
• 0% of corridor total
• 54,600 SF retail
• 22% of corridor total

13. TRANSIT IMPORTANT FACTOR,
BUT NOT MOST CRITICAL
• “Transit doesn’t make a bad location
good, it makes a good location better”
• Portland TriMet interview
• Transit is a key part of creating
convenience and lifestyle, but must have
other lifestyle or selling propositions
• Employment proximity
• Affluence of neighborhoods
• Create price alternative hsg needs
• Walkability
• Unique character

14. CASE STUDY COMPARISON
Bland Street Station Tyvola Station
S
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15. CASE STUDY COMPARISON
Bland Tyvola
Predominant Land Use Mix of Loft Commercial, Mix of Strip Retail, Bus.
Residential, some Ind. Park
Shortest Walk to Exist Res, 2005 .19 miles .31 miles
Walk Score 82 68
Avg Area Home Sales Price $291,000 $166,000
Distance to Major Office Core .8 Miles 2.8 Miles
Station Format Surface Elevated
Rental Apt Lease Rates $1.50 $1.00 - $1.10
Parking Supported Decked Surface
Supportable Densities 60 – 100+/Acre 25 – 30/Acre
Retail Rents $22 - $26/SF $12 - $16/SF

16. WHERE ARE WE HEADING?
• Next wave of apartment
construction starting up
• 1,535 new units in next two to
three years
• 3,700 new residential units in
roughly a decade
• Projects in South End, extending
south to New Bern Station
• Developers very tuned into
value of transit—emphasize
Blue Line access as a key
selling feature
• Commercial still a tougher
challenge, but housing creates
more potential

17. WHERE ARE WE HEADING?
• Central and Southern sections
likely to remain relatively quiet
• City/CATS will need to identify
strategies & investment to
create value
• Parks & Plazas
• Greenways
• Institutional units & anchors
• Use of financial tools
• Lack of land control around
stations an issue

18. IN CLOSING
• Development has been strong given
timing, market struggles, and attributes of
corridor
• Residential has been much stronger than
commercial
• Transit undoubtedly “elevating” locations
where lifestyle proposition/ convenience
already exist
• 3,700 units in 10 years
• Stations lacking that proposition a much
tougher development scenario
• Other investments/steps may be needed to
facilitate development
• Lack of CATS property makes this more
challenging

19. [INSERT IMG]
SOUTH CORRIDOR
DEVELOPMENT
SUMMARY
URBAN LAND INSTITUTE
112 KROG STREET NE SUITE 14 | ATLANTA, GA 30307 CONTACT | 404.681.0006

20. OTHER FACTORS WEIGH
HEAVILY
Center Southern
Factor South End
Stations Stations
Housing $325,000 $128,000 $71,000
Value
Walkability 76 60 44
Score
Distance to 1.3 4.5 6.75
Center City
Character Med. To High Low Low
Station High—one More Moderate—
Visibility parcel deep removed— somewhat
from S. Blvd generally low removed
Feasibility of Redev. Redev—not Mixed—some
Development Feasible feasible greenfield