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What Are The Odds?

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What are the odds that you exist, as you, today? Author Ali Binazir attempts to quantify the probability that you came about and exist as you today and reveals that the odds of you existing are almost zero.

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What Are The Odds?

  1. 1. 1 in 1045,000What are the odds that you exist, as you, today?Author Ali Binazir attemps to quantify the probability that you came about and exist as you today,and reveals that the odds of you existing are almost zero.What is the probability of yourdad meeting your mom?startThough the world was smaller 20 years ago,your dad could have met almost200 million of its women (go dad!)But over 25 years, he probablymet around 10,000 women.So the odds that your mom wasin this small group and met your dad is:Thus, the odds that your parents’ meetingresults in kids is:It is a 1 in 10 chance thatthey talk to each other.Also a 1 in 10 chance thatthey go on a second date.Another 1 in 10 chance thatthey keep dating for a while.And a coin toss if theystay together long enoughfor offspring.So far, the combined odds of you being here are: 1 in 40,000,000 That is about the sizeof the population ofCalifornia.Why? Because we are about to dealwith eggs and sperm, which come inlarge numbers.Because your existence here, now,and on planet earth presupposesanother supremely unlikely and utterlyundeniable chain of events. Namely,that every one of your ancestorslived to reproductive age —going all the way back not just to thefirst Homo sapiens, first Homo erectusand Homo habilis, but all the way backto the first single-celled organism. Youare a representative of an unbrokenlineage of life going back 4 billion years.What are the odds that the 1 egg...What are the odds that your lineage remainedunbroken for the length of human existence?That’s a 10 with 45,000 zeroes after it.1 in 102,640,000That is 1 quadrillionmultiplied by 1 quadrillionfor every generation.1 in 400,000,000,000,000,000(1 in 400 quadrillion)Mom has about 100,000eggs in her lifetime.(Sally.) (Harry.)Dad makes about 4 trillion spermduring the years you could havebeen born....met the 1 sperm, which togethermade you (and not your brother)?What is the probability that they staytogether long enough to have kids?BUT WE KNOW HOW TRICKY LOVE CAN BE.NOW THINGS ARE GOINGTO GET PRETTY INTERESTING.BUT WE’RE JUST GETTING STARTED.That is approximately the volume in cubic metersof the Atlantic Ocean (3.236×1017cubic meters).(You. Aw.)...for 150,000 generations.1 in 2 odds that a childwill be born, grow,and reproduce pergeneration...How large is that number?(Weeeee!)That number is not just larger thanall of the particles in the universe —it is larger than all the particles in the universeif each particle were itself a universe.The right sperm also had to meet theright egg for every single one of those ancestors.ODDS OF THE RIGHT SPERM,MEETING THE RIGHT EGG150,000 TIMES?SO, THE ODDS THAT EXIST AT ALL ARE:THAT’S PRETTY BIG,BUT WAIT A MINUTE.y o u1 in 102,685,000let’s add it all up102,640,000x 1045,000x 2000 x 20,000 ≈The number of atoms in the body of an averagemale (80kg, 175 lb) is about:The number of atoms making up theearth is about:The number of atoms in the knownuniverse is estimated at:It is the probability of 2 million people getting together (about the population of SanDiego) each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. They each roll the dice,and they all come up with the exact same number — for example, 550,343,279,001.102710501080BY COMPARISON:THINK OF IT LIKE THIS:Basically zero.A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. By that definition, we have just shown that you are a miracle.Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are.LET’S START SMALL.