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WANG Chengjun
wangchj04@gmail.com
     2010.12.24
 The characteristics of Diffusion
 Diffusion is a special case of brokerage
 Time dimension
 Relationships as channel
 The combination of structural positions &
 adoption time
 Empirical data
 Innovations of new mathematics method in
  1950, Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
 School superintendents as gatekeepers
 Nomination method: ask the respondents to
  indicate their three best friends
 The social network is named modern math
  network
   Read data
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Reading Network --- E:lingfei
    wupajek125ESNAdataChapter8ModMath.net
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Reading Partition --- E:lingfei
    wupajek125ESNAdataChapter8ModMath_adoption.clu
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MODMATH.NET                               MODMATH_ADOPTION.CLU
   *Vertices 38                              *Vertices 38      4
                                              1                 4
        1 "v1"    0.0500 0.5346 0.5000                          4
        2 "v2"    0.2300 0.7423 0.5000       2                 4
        3 "v3"    0.2300 0.6038 0.5000       2                 4
   ...........                               2                 4
   *Arcs                                     2                 4
   *Edges                                    3                 4
        2 32 1                               3                 4
                                              3                 4
        2 23 1                                                  5
        2 3 1                                3                 5
   ……………….                                   3                 5
                                              3                 5
                                              3                 5
                                              3                 5
                                              3                 5
                                              3                 5
                                                                 6
                                              4                 6
                                              4                 6
 Two-step flow model
 First phase: Mass media inform and influence
  opinion leaders
 Second phase: opinion leaders influence
  potential adopters
 Diffusion of innovations
 Opinion leaders use social relations to
  influence their contacts
 Advice and friendship relations
   Personal characteristics
   The type of innovations
   Perceived risk of innovations
   Network structure:
   In a dense network an innovation spreads more easily and
    faster than in a sparse network,
    In an unconnected network diffusion will be slower and less
    comprehensive than in a connected network,
    In a bi-component diffusion will be faster than in components
    with cut-points or bridges,
    The larger the neighborhood of a person within the
    network, the earlier s/he will adopt an innovation,
    A central position is likely to lead to early adoption,
   Diffusion from a central vertex is faster than from a vertex in
    the margins of the network.
   Dimension: 38
   The lowest value: 1                                                                  Diffusion curve
   The highest value: 6
   The highest clusters values:                                         40
                                                                                      new                                         38
     Rank Vertex Cluster Id                                             35                                              35
   --------------------------------                                                  cummulative


                                                       Adoption number
       1 38         6 v38                                               30
   Frequency distribution of cluster                                                                           27
    numbers:
                                                                         25
   Cluster Freq Freq% CumFreq                                           20
    CumFreq% Representative
    -----------------------------------------------                     15                          15
    ----------------                                                                                            12
        1     1 2.6316          1 2.6316 v1                             10                          10
        2      4 10.5263         5 13.1579 v2                                           5                               8
        3     10 26.3158         15 39.4737 v6                           5   1              4
        4     12 31.5789         27 71.0526                                                                                      3
    v16
                                                                          0       1
        5      8 21.0526        35 92.1053 v28
        6      3 7.8947        38 100.0000 v36
    -----------------------------------------------                          1          2       3          4        5        6
    ----------------
      Sum        38 100.0000                                                                        Year
 Create a random network
 Net> Random Network> Vertices Output
  Degree
 Out-degree 1 or 2
 No multiple lines
 Pick a vertex as the source of diffusion
  process
 Assume a vertex will adopt at the first time
  point after it has established direct contact
  with an adopter
diffusion curve of random network
                  40
                                                                            38
                  35                                               35
Adoption number




                  30       new
                  25       cummulative                    25
                  20
                  15                                      15
                                          10
                  10              4                                10
                   5   1                       6
                                      3                                     3
                   0       1
                       1          2        3          4        5        6
                                               year
 Everyone is unequally susceptible to contagion
 Two approaches to evaluate innovativeness:
 Adoption categories
 Classify people by their adoption time: Innovators, early
  adopters, early majority, late adopters, laggards.
 It’s useful to identify the social and demographic characteristics
 Threshold categories:
 The threshold is his or her exposure at the time of adoption
 The exposure of a vertex in a network at a particular moment is
  the proportion of its neighbors who have adopted before that
  time
 Some people are easily persuaded (more susceptible) than others
 However, individual thresholds are computed after the fact, which
  is a hindsight and not informative. They should be validated by
  other indicators of innovativeness.
We first choose time 2 (1959), and calculate the exposure at the time 2.
And then, calculate time 3, time4, time 5, time6
   Net> Transform> Arcs->Edges>ALL
   Partition> Binarize (fill in 1-2)
   Adoption time 1 & 2 are assigned a score of
    1, and others are assigned a score of 0.
FILL IN 1-2
   Operations> Vector> Summing up neighbors
   Because we defined exposure as the
    percentage of neighbors who have adopted.
   Vectors> First vector
   Net> Partitions> Degree
                                                 There aren’t the
   Partition> Make vector (do not normalize)   submenus of first
   Vectors> Second vector                      vector and second
   Vectors> Divide First by Second                 vector in
   Options> Read/Write>0/0                      PAJEK125 !!!!!!!
Macro> Play
Options> Read/Write>0/0
Making new macro:
Macro> Record----- Macro> Record
Results supplied by the author
   Read Project
   Operations> Transform> Direction> Lower-
    Higher
   Threshold=in-degree/ all-degree
   in-degree is the in-degree of network which is directed
    and having no multiple lines and no lines within classes
   all-degree is the all-degree of network which is undirected
    and having n0 multiple lines
   Because the original network is undirected and having no
    multiple lines, so we can calculate all-degree directly.
   To obtain the in-degree, we should re-read original
    network and change it into directed one which has no lines
    within classes first, and then we can calculate in-degree
    directly.
   Using the submenu “divide first by second” in the menu of
    “Vectors”, we can get the threshold.
   Draw the vectors, and “mark vertices using” “vector
    values”.
   Record macro
   Read project
   Draw partition
   Net> partitions > Degree> ALL
   Vectors> Second vectors
   Read project
   Operations> Transform> Direction
   Net> partitions > Degree> Input
   Vectors> First vectors
   Vectors> Divide First by Second
   Draw> Draw-vector
   Record macro
   NETBEGIN 1
   CLUBEGIN 1
   PERBEGIN 1
   CLSBEGIN 1
   HIEBEGIN 1
   VECBEGIN 1
   Msg Reading Pajek Project File --- E:lingfei wupajek125ESNAdataChapter8ModMath.paj
   Msg Reading Network --- ModMath_directed.net
   Msg Reading Network --- ModMath.net
   Msg Reading Partition --- ModMath_adoption.clu
   N 9999 RDPAJ ?
   N 2 LAYERSNX 2 1
   Msg Optimizing total length of lines ...
   Msg All degree centrality of 2. ModMath.net (38)
   C 2 DEGC 2 [2] (38)
   N 3 ETOAINC 2 1 1 DEL (38)
   Msg Input degree centrality of 3. Directed Network [INC DEL] of N2 according to C1 (38)
   C 3 DEGC 3 [0] (38)
   V 3 DIVV 2 1 (38)
Net> Transform> Arcs->Edges> All
Net> Vector> Centrality> Betweenness
Info > Vector
   A threshold lag is a period in which an actor
    does not adopt although he or she is exposed
    at the level at which he or she will adopt later.
   The critical mass of a diffusion process is the
    minimum number of adopters needed to
    sustain a diffusion process.
   V28 and V29 undergoes a threshold
    lag, respectively (we can tell that from the pic
    of thresholds).
Tools> SPSS> Locate SPSS
Tools> SPSS> Send to SPSS
Diffusion curve
             40                                                        38




Adoption number
                              new                             35
             30
                                                     27
             20
                                          15
              10                          10         12
                              5                               8
                      1           4                                    3
                  0       1
                      1       2       3          4        5        6
                                          Year
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Calculate Thresholds of Diffusion with Pajek

  • 2.  The characteristics of Diffusion  Diffusion is a special case of brokerage  Time dimension  Relationships as channel  The combination of structural positions & adoption time
  • 3.  Empirical data  Innovations of new mathematics method in 1950, Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.  School superintendents as gatekeepers  Nomination method: ask the respondents to indicate their three best friends  The social network is named modern math network
  • 4. Read data  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Reading Network --- E:lingfei wupajek125ESNAdataChapter8ModMath.net  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Reading Partition --- E:lingfei wupajek125ESNAdataChapter8ModMath_adoption.clu  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • 5.
  • 6. MODMATH.NET MODMATH_ADOPTION.CLU  *Vertices 38  *Vertices 38  4  1  4  1 "v1" 0.0500 0.5346 0.5000  4  2 "v2" 0.2300 0.7423 0.5000  2  4  3 "v3" 0.2300 0.6038 0.5000  2  4  ...........  2  4  *Arcs  2  4  *Edges  3  4  2 32 1  3  4  3  4  2 23 1  5  2 3 1  3  5  ……………….  3  5  3  5  3  5  3  5  3  5  3  5  6  4  6  4  6
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.  Two-step flow model  First phase: Mass media inform and influence opinion leaders  Second phase: opinion leaders influence potential adopters  Diffusion of innovations  Opinion leaders use social relations to influence their contacts  Advice and friendship relations
  • 10.
  • 11. Personal characteristics  The type of innovations  Perceived risk of innovations  Network structure:  In a dense network an innovation spreads more easily and faster than in a sparse network,  In an unconnected network diffusion will be slower and less comprehensive than in a connected network,  In a bi-component diffusion will be faster than in components with cut-points or bridges,  The larger the neighborhood of a person within the network, the earlier s/he will adopt an innovation,  A central position is likely to lead to early adoption,  Diffusion from a central vertex is faster than from a vertex in the margins of the network.
  • 12. Dimension: 38  The lowest value: 1 Diffusion curve  The highest value: 6  The highest clusters values: 40 new 38  Rank Vertex Cluster Id 35 35  -------------------------------- cummulative Adoption number  1 38 6 v38 30  Frequency distribution of cluster 27 numbers: 25  Cluster Freq Freq% CumFreq 20 CumFreq% Representative  ----------------------------------------------- 15 15 ---------------- 12  1 1 2.6316 1 2.6316 v1 10 10  2 4 10.5263 5 13.1579 v2 5 8  3 10 26.3158 15 39.4737 v6 5 1 4  4 12 31.5789 27 71.0526 3 v16 0 1  5 8 21.0526 35 92.1053 v28  6 3 7.8947 38 100.0000 v36  ----------------------------------------------- 1 2 3 4 5 6 ----------------  Sum 38 100.0000 Year
  • 13.  Create a random network  Net> Random Network> Vertices Output Degree  Out-degree 1 or 2  No multiple lines  Pick a vertex as the source of diffusion process  Assume a vertex will adopt at the first time point after it has established direct contact with an adopter
  • 14. diffusion curve of random network 40 38 35 35 Adoption number 30 new 25 cummulative 25 20 15 15 10 10 4 10 5 1 6 3 3 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 year
  • 15.  Everyone is unequally susceptible to contagion  Two approaches to evaluate innovativeness:  Adoption categories  Classify people by their adoption time: Innovators, early adopters, early majority, late adopters, laggards.  It’s useful to identify the social and demographic characteristics  Threshold categories:  The threshold is his or her exposure at the time of adoption  The exposure of a vertex in a network at a particular moment is the proportion of its neighbors who have adopted before that time  Some people are easily persuaded (more susceptible) than others  However, individual thresholds are computed after the fact, which is a hindsight and not informative. They should be validated by other indicators of innovativeness.
  • 16. We first choose time 2 (1959), and calculate the exposure at the time 2. And then, calculate time 3, time4, time 5, time6
  • 17. Net> Transform> Arcs->Edges>ALL
  • 18. Partition> Binarize (fill in 1-2)  Adoption time 1 & 2 are assigned a score of 1, and others are assigned a score of 0.
  • 20. Operations> Vector> Summing up neighbors
  • 21. Because we defined exposure as the percentage of neighbors who have adopted.  Vectors> First vector  Net> Partitions> Degree There aren’t the  Partition> Make vector (do not normalize) submenus of first  Vectors> Second vector vector and second  Vectors> Divide First by Second vector in  Options> Read/Write>0/0 PAJEK125 !!!!!!!
  • 22. Macro> Play Options> Read/Write>0/0 Making new macro: Macro> Record----- Macro> Record
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. Results supplied by the author
  • 29. Read Project  Operations> Transform> Direction> Lower- Higher
  • 30.
  • 31. Threshold=in-degree/ all-degree  in-degree is the in-degree of network which is directed and having no multiple lines and no lines within classes  all-degree is the all-degree of network which is undirected and having n0 multiple lines  Because the original network is undirected and having no multiple lines, so we can calculate all-degree directly.  To obtain the in-degree, we should re-read original network and change it into directed one which has no lines within classes first, and then we can calculate in-degree directly.  Using the submenu “divide first by second” in the menu of “Vectors”, we can get the threshold.  Draw the vectors, and “mark vertices using” “vector values”.
  • 32. Record macro  Read project  Draw partition  Net> partitions > Degree> ALL  Vectors> Second vectors  Read project  Operations> Transform> Direction  Net> partitions > Degree> Input  Vectors> First vectors  Vectors> Divide First by Second  Draw> Draw-vector  Record macro
  • 33. NETBEGIN 1  CLUBEGIN 1  PERBEGIN 1  CLSBEGIN 1  HIEBEGIN 1  VECBEGIN 1  Msg Reading Pajek Project File --- E:lingfei wupajek125ESNAdataChapter8ModMath.paj  Msg Reading Network --- ModMath_directed.net  Msg Reading Network --- ModMath.net  Msg Reading Partition --- ModMath_adoption.clu  N 9999 RDPAJ ?  N 2 LAYERSNX 2 1  Msg Optimizing total length of lines ...  Msg All degree centrality of 2. ModMath.net (38)  C 2 DEGC 2 [2] (38)  N 3 ETOAINC 2 1 1 DEL (38)  Msg Input degree centrality of 3. Directed Network [INC DEL] of N2 according to C1 (38)  C 3 DEGC 3 [0] (38)  V 3 DIVV 2 1 (38)
  • 34.
  • 35. Net> Transform> Arcs->Edges> All Net> Vector> Centrality> Betweenness Info > Vector
  • 36. A threshold lag is a period in which an actor does not adopt although he or she is exposed at the level at which he or she will adopt later.  The critical mass of a diffusion process is the minimum number of adopters needed to sustain a diffusion process.  V28 and V29 undergoes a threshold lag, respectively (we can tell that from the pic of thresholds).
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39. Tools> SPSS> Locate SPSS Tools> SPSS> Send to SPSS
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42. Diffusion curve 40 38 Adoption number new 35 30 27 20 15 10 10 12 5 8 1 4 3 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Year