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Session # 2 – October 21, 2010
   TODAY’S TOPIC:




   WIND ENERGY




© 2010 Macademia
                                     Copyright to this picture: E.ON 2010                                       1
Concept and Contents Copyright Macademia 2010; Copyright on pictures as indicated; no unauthorized use or publication
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010

  What we will cover (in a nutshell)




                   • How Wind Energy developed
                   • The big challenges to Wind Power
                   • What our expert expects from Wind Power
                   • Your own experience with Wind Power



© 2010 Macademia
                                                        2
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


  Your visiting scholar today:


  Nico Köllner, E.ON Climate & Renewables




© 2010 Macademia
                                            3
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010

  Our Schedule for Today


    1
    1          The background to Wind Power

                   • History
                   • How the industry has developed
                   • Where are we now?




© 2010 Macademia
                                                      4
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010

  Our Schedule for Today


   2
   1
   2           The big topics in Wind Power

                   • Development of Turbine Sizes
                   • Potential for further savings
                   • Re-powering with huge potential?
                   • Offshore as the future frontier?
                   • Small decentralized solutions

© 2010 Macademia
                                                        5
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010

  Our Schedule for Today


    3          Ask the expert
               Discussion with Nico Köllner, E.ON Strategy



    4          What you should focus on




© 2010 Macademia
                                                    6
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   1
   1           The background to Wind Power
                   • History
                      - Centuries of experience / Cultural landscapes
                      - When mechanical turned to electrical use
                      - Small-scale use and stand-alone solutions until
                       the 1930s
                      - Elements of a modern wind turbine and their
                       functions

© 2010 Macademia
                                                         7
Kinderkijk NL - mills for waterdranage; copyright of this picture: molinologe, Gerald Bost
      used according to Wikipedia GNU.license for free documentation; available at: http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html

© 2010 Macademia
                                                                                               8
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010



   1
   1           The background to Wind Power
                   • How the industry developed
                         - From the standard in the mid-1980s to today’s
                          wind turbines
                         - When larger industrial players entered the
                          scene
                         - 2010: Global market of € 36 billion (German
                          industry assoc.)

© 2010 Macademia
                                                         9
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   1
   1           The background to Wind Power
                   • Where are we now?
                   - 38 GW installed in 2009
                   - Growing market € +40 bln. expected for 2011
                   - Attractive export industry: 17.5% of world
                    market with German origin, 100,000 related jobs
                   - Turbine size as a crucial factor, 6 MW-Turbines
                    off the Belgian coast

© 2010 Macademia
                                                          10
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


    1          The background to Wind Power
                   • Where are we now?
                     - Turbine size as a crucial factor, 6 MW-Turbines
                       off the Belgian coast
                     - The importance of the wind regime (cubic relation
                       between wind speed and wind power)




© 2010 Macademia
                                                        11
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


    1          The background to Wind Power
                   • Participant experience with Wind Power
                      - What have been positive or negative
                       experiences with wind?
                      - How is the public perception of Wind Energy in
                       your country/region?
                      - Has it changes over the past couple of years?



© 2010 Macademia
                                                         12
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   2
   1
   2           The big topics in Wind Power
                   
                       Development of Turbine Sizes
                        - New dimension of forces working on turbine and
                          foundations
                        - Impact on life cycle, operational efficiency and
                         reliability
                        - Relatively little experience compared to other
                         machine tool industries
                        - from 2.5 MW upwards (diameters > 110 m)
© 2010 Macademia
Copyright to this picture: E.ON 2010
© 2010 Macademia
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   2
   1
   2           The big topics in Wind Power
                   •    Pushing the costs downwards
                       - Development towards grid parity essential for
                         continuous success
                       - Higher utilization crucial for attracting investors’
                         funds after bad experiences in past decades




© 2010 Macademia
Moving towards optimum capacity of turbines
                                       2500



                                       2000
         Leistung pro Anlage, kW/WEA
            Power per Unit, kW/Unit




                                       1500



                                       1000



                                       500



                                         0
                                                   1987        1992         1997        2002         2007        2010
                                              Source: DEWI, Status der Windenergienutzung in Deutschland, p. 6
© 2010 Macademia
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   2
   1
   2
   2           The big topics in Wind Power
                   • Re-powering with huge potential?
                      - Optimized in: design, efficiency, noise
                        emissions, light reflection, et cetera
                      - The figures often quoted: half the number of
                        turbines, twice the capacity, three times the
                        output



© 2010 Macademia
New wind turbines in Hellschen-Heringsand-Unterschaar; copyright of this picture: Dirk Ingo Franke,
      used according to Wikipedia GNU.license for free documentation; available at: http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html
© 2010 Macademia
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   2
   1
   2
   2           The big topics in Wind Power
                   • Re-powering with huge potential?
                      - e.g.: Rheinland-Pfalz (Rhineland-Palatinate):
                        average size of turbines in mid -1990s
                        compared to today; potential increase in
                        Wind’s share in electricity production
                      - Win-Win situation for all stakeholders?



© 2010 Macademia
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   2
   1
   2
   2           The big topics in Wind Power
                   • Offshore as the new frontier?
                      - Roughly twice the output of on-shore due to wind
                        conditions
                      - Foundations of up to 700 tonnes p. turbine, height
                        of 150m
                      - The cost share of foundations (up to 1/3 of total
                        costs)


© 2010 Macademia
Copyright of this picture: E.ON AG, Germany



© 2010 Macademia
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   2
   1
   2
   2           The big topics in Wind Power

                   • Offshore as the new frontier?
                       - Logistically a completely different story to on-shore
                       - Cooperation crucial (public-private partnerships;
                         international cooperation; grid system)
                       - Ambitious goals by North Sea Neighbouring Countries




© 2010 Macademia
                                                            22
© 2010 Macademia
                   23
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   2
   1
   2
   2           The big topics in Wind Power
                   • Small decentralized solutions
                      - < 50 KW traditionally for electricity supply,
                        mechanical water pumping, desalinisation,
                        battery charging
                      - Problematic in urban areas
                      - Ambitious goals by North Sea Neighbouring
                        Countries


© 2010 Macademia
                                                          24
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


    2          The big topics in Wind Power
                   • Other aspects
                      - Acoustic emissions (mechanical / aero-acoustic)
                      - Energy payback time
                      - Approaching theoretical potential/
                        Limits to mass production
                      - Extending the grid



© 2010 Macademia
                                                        25
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   3
   1
   3
   2           Ask the expert

               • Discussion with Nico Köllner, E.ON Strategy




© 2010 Macademia
                                                     26
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


   4
   1
   4
   2           What you should focus on


                   • Industry Leaders
                   • Emerging Markets for Wind Power
                   • Husum Wind Energy Fair
                   • Development of Chinese and U.S. Markets




© 2010 Macademia
                                                       27
Session # 2 – October 21, 2010


  ...and for next week, please:

  • Discuss Wind Power and its perspectives in the Forum
  • Sketch the potential of Wind Power in your country/region
  • Have a look at Renewables Funding Schemes in your country




© 2010 Macademia
                                                 28

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Wind Energy Expert Shares Insights

  • 1. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 TODAY’S TOPIC: WIND ENERGY © 2010 Macademia Copyright to this picture: E.ON 2010 1 Concept and Contents Copyright Macademia 2010; Copyright on pictures as indicated; no unauthorized use or publication
  • 2. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 What we will cover (in a nutshell) • How Wind Energy developed • The big challenges to Wind Power • What our expert expects from Wind Power • Your own experience with Wind Power © 2010 Macademia 2
  • 3. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 Your visiting scholar today: Nico Köllner, E.ON Climate & Renewables © 2010 Macademia 3
  • 4. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 Our Schedule for Today 1 1 The background to Wind Power • History • How the industry has developed • Where are we now? © 2010 Macademia 4
  • 5. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 Our Schedule for Today 2 1 2 The big topics in Wind Power • Development of Turbine Sizes • Potential for further savings • Re-powering with huge potential? • Offshore as the future frontier? • Small decentralized solutions © 2010 Macademia 5
  • 6. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 Our Schedule for Today 3 Ask the expert Discussion with Nico Köllner, E.ON Strategy 4 What you should focus on © 2010 Macademia 6
  • 7. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 1 1 The background to Wind Power • History - Centuries of experience / Cultural landscapes - When mechanical turned to electrical use - Small-scale use and stand-alone solutions until the 1930s - Elements of a modern wind turbine and their functions © 2010 Macademia 7
  • 8. Kinderkijk NL - mills for waterdranage; copyright of this picture: molinologe, Gerald Bost used according to Wikipedia GNU.license for free documentation; available at: http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html © 2010 Macademia 8
  • 9. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 1 1 The background to Wind Power • How the industry developed - From the standard in the mid-1980s to today’s wind turbines - When larger industrial players entered the scene - 2010: Global market of € 36 billion (German industry assoc.) © 2010 Macademia 9
  • 10. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 1 1 The background to Wind Power • Where are we now? - 38 GW installed in 2009 - Growing market € +40 bln. expected for 2011 - Attractive export industry: 17.5% of world market with German origin, 100,000 related jobs - Turbine size as a crucial factor, 6 MW-Turbines off the Belgian coast © 2010 Macademia 10
  • 11. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 1 The background to Wind Power • Where are we now? - Turbine size as a crucial factor, 6 MW-Turbines off the Belgian coast - The importance of the wind regime (cubic relation between wind speed and wind power) © 2010 Macademia 11
  • 12. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 1 The background to Wind Power • Participant experience with Wind Power - What have been positive or negative experiences with wind? - How is the public perception of Wind Energy in your country/region? - Has it changes over the past couple of years? © 2010 Macademia 12
  • 13. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 2 1 2 The big topics in Wind Power  Development of Turbine Sizes - New dimension of forces working on turbine and foundations - Impact on life cycle, operational efficiency and reliability - Relatively little experience compared to other machine tool industries - from 2.5 MW upwards (diameters > 110 m) © 2010 Macademia
  • 14. Copyright to this picture: E.ON 2010 © 2010 Macademia
  • 15. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 2 1 2 The big topics in Wind Power • Pushing the costs downwards - Development towards grid parity essential for continuous success - Higher utilization crucial for attracting investors’ funds after bad experiences in past decades © 2010 Macademia
  • 16. Moving towards optimum capacity of turbines 2500 2000 Leistung pro Anlage, kW/WEA Power per Unit, kW/Unit 1500 1000 500 0 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2010 Source: DEWI, Status der Windenergienutzung in Deutschland, p. 6 © 2010 Macademia
  • 17. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 2 1 2 2 The big topics in Wind Power • Re-powering with huge potential? - Optimized in: design, efficiency, noise emissions, light reflection, et cetera - The figures often quoted: half the number of turbines, twice the capacity, three times the output © 2010 Macademia
  • 18. New wind turbines in Hellschen-Heringsand-Unterschaar; copyright of this picture: Dirk Ingo Franke, used according to Wikipedia GNU.license for free documentation; available at: http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html © 2010 Macademia
  • 19. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 2 1 2 2 The big topics in Wind Power • Re-powering with huge potential? - e.g.: Rheinland-Pfalz (Rhineland-Palatinate): average size of turbines in mid -1990s compared to today; potential increase in Wind’s share in electricity production - Win-Win situation for all stakeholders? © 2010 Macademia
  • 20. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 2 1 2 2 The big topics in Wind Power • Offshore as the new frontier? - Roughly twice the output of on-shore due to wind conditions - Foundations of up to 700 tonnes p. turbine, height of 150m - The cost share of foundations (up to 1/3 of total costs) © 2010 Macademia
  • 21. Copyright of this picture: E.ON AG, Germany © 2010 Macademia
  • 22. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 2 1 2 2 The big topics in Wind Power • Offshore as the new frontier? - Logistically a completely different story to on-shore - Cooperation crucial (public-private partnerships; international cooperation; grid system) - Ambitious goals by North Sea Neighbouring Countries © 2010 Macademia 22
  • 24. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 2 1 2 2 The big topics in Wind Power • Small decentralized solutions - < 50 KW traditionally for electricity supply, mechanical water pumping, desalinisation, battery charging - Problematic in urban areas - Ambitious goals by North Sea Neighbouring Countries © 2010 Macademia 24
  • 25. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 2 The big topics in Wind Power • Other aspects - Acoustic emissions (mechanical / aero-acoustic) - Energy payback time - Approaching theoretical potential/ Limits to mass production - Extending the grid © 2010 Macademia 25
  • 26. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 3 1 3 2 Ask the expert • Discussion with Nico Köllner, E.ON Strategy © 2010 Macademia 26
  • 27. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 4 1 4 2 What you should focus on • Industry Leaders • Emerging Markets for Wind Power • Husum Wind Energy Fair • Development of Chinese and U.S. Markets © 2010 Macademia 27
  • 28. Session # 2 – October 21, 2010 ...and for next week, please: • Discuss Wind Power and its perspectives in the Forum • Sketch the potential of Wind Power in your country/region • Have a look at Renewables Funding Schemes in your country © 2010 Macademia 28