1. Thoughts about a New Generation of
U.S. Spatial Adjustments and the Implications for
Canada and the Algoma Region
Dr. Barry Wellar, MCIP
y ,
Professor Emeritus
University of Ottawa,
Distinguished Research Fellow, T
Di ti i h dR h F ll Transport A ti Canada,
t Action C d
Policy and Research Advisor
Federation of Urban Neighbourhoods,
Principal, Wellar Consulting Inc.
wellarb@uottawa.ca
wellarconsulting.com
wellarconsulting com
Page 1

2. PowerPoint Slides for a Seminar on
U.S. Geography
U S Geography, Algoma University
Presentation arranged by:
Department of Geography & Geology,
Algoma University
Sault Ste. Marie Ontario
Ste Marie,
September 12, 2011
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3. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Table 1. Five Illustrative Themes, Issues, Movements, Concerns,
Problems, Trends, etc., Regarding U.S. Spatial Adjustments
1. Increased participation in achieving more self-sustaining communities.
2.
2 A demographic and economic activity shift from large cities to smaller cities
and towns.
3. Significant increases in the amount and share of freight moved by rail and
significant d
i ifi t decreases in the amount and share of freight moved by truck.
i th t d h f f i ht db t k
4. Building a fossil fuel pipeline from the oil sands location in Northern Alberta
into the U.S.
5. Dealing with the negative consequences arising from building “in harm’s
way” by limiting/precluding development in high-risk areas.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 3

4. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
1. Increased participation in achieving more self-sustaining
communities.
This theme was popular in principle in the U.S. in the 1970s
and 1980s and appears to be back, this time seemingly with
pp gy
considerable support.
Challenges that arise include resolving issues about the
means and mechanisms that affect how more self-sustaining
communities are to be achieved in practice, and the location
and timing of public sector initiatives to promote and support
g p p pp
achieving more self-sustaining communities in different kinds
of social, economic, environmental, and geographic
situations.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 4

5. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Table 1. Five Illustrative Themes, Issues, Movements, Concerns,
Problems, Trends, etc., Regarding U.S. Spatial Adjustments
1. Increased participation in achieving more self-sustaining communities.
2.
2 A demographic and economic activity shift from large cities to smaller cities
and towns.
3. Significant increases in the amount and share of freight moved by rail and
significant d
i ifi t decreases in the amount and share of freight moved by truck.
i th t d h f f i ht db t k
4. Building a fossil fuel pipeline from the oil sands location in Northern Alberta
into the U.S.
5. Dealing with the negative consequences arising from building “in harm’s
way” by limiting/precluding development in high-risk areas.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 5

6. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
2. A demographic and economic activity shift from large cities
to smaller cities and towns
towns.
The growth of large cities and the decline of smaller centres
and rural areas in the U.S. has been the trend for decades.
d l i th U S h b th t df d d
However, driven in large part by the energy crunch, the
collapse of housing and money markets, and the seemingly
chronic costs-exceeding-revenues problem being experienced
costs exceeding revenues
by a number of large cities, questions are being asked about
where to locate in order to be closer to or gain better access
to sources of food production, renewable energy (water wind
production (water, wind,
solar), and lower costs of maintaining public infrastructure
and services.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 6

7. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Although smaller cities and rural areas in general appear to
be receiving increased consideration as alternatives to large
cities, questions arise as to which centres and regions in
particular are best equipped to accommodate new people
and new enterprises without encountering the “urban
urban
problem” themselves.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 7

8. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Table 1. Five Illustrative Themes, Issues, Movements, Concerns,
Problems, Trends, etc., Regarding U.S. Spatial Adjustments
1. Increased participation in achieving more self-sustaining communities.
2.
2 A demographic and economic activity shift from large cities to smaller cities
and towns.
3. Significant increases in the amount and share of freight moved by rail and
significant d
i ifi t decreases in the amount and share of freight moved by truck.
i th t d h f f i ht db t k
4. Building a fossil fuel pipeline from the oil sands location in Northern Alberta
into the U.S.
5. Dealing with the negative consequences arising from building “in harm’s
way” by limiting/precluding development in high-risk areas.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 8

9. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
3. Significant increases in the amount and share of freight
moved by rail and significant decreases in the amount and
share of freight moved by truck.
The road-rail truck freight debate has been around for decades
in the U S and will continue to be bounced around among
U.S.,
businesses, politicians, and other vested and competing
interests.
However, due in part to the likelihood of sharp increases in
fuel costs, there is speculation about whether a number of
trucking firms in the U S can afford to stay in business That
U.S. business.
said, questions arise as to whether and how the rail industry
could/would modify its operations to handle changes in the
amounts and kinds of freight to be shipped
shipped.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 9

10. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Table 1. Five Illustrative Themes, Issues, Movements, Concerns,
Problems, Trends, etc., Regarding U.S. Spatial Adjustments
1. Increased participation in achieving more self-sustaining communities.
2.
2 A demographic and economic activity shift from large cities to smaller cities
and towns.
3. Significant increases in the amount and share of freight moved by rail and
significant d
i ifi t decreases in the amount and share of freight moved by truck.
i th t d h f f i ht db t k
4. Building a fossil fuel pipeline from the oil sands location in Northern Alberta
into the U.S.
5. Dealing with the negative consequences arising from building “in harm’s
way” by limiting/precluding development in high-risk areas.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 10

11. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
4. Building a fossil fuel pipeline from the oil sands location in
Northern Alberta into the U.S.
US
This proposition is the subject of considerable debate,
including
i l di questions about the acceptability or tolerability of
ti b t th t bilit t l bilit f
environmental impacts from the oil sands sites to the refinery
sites, whether the availability of more fossil fuel serves to feed
a propensity in the U S to drive private motor vehicles rather
U.S.
than practicing more sustainable modes of transport (for
people and freight), and whether a decision to not build the
pipeline would accelerate actions in the U S to accept and
U.S.
implement an energy diet with reduced fossil fuel
consumption.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 11

12. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Table 1. Five Illustrative Themes, Issues, Movements, Concerns,
Problems, Trends, etc., Regarding U.S. Spatial Adjustments
1. Increased participation in achieving more self-sustaining communities.
2.
2 A demographic and economic activity shift from large cities to smaller cities
and towns.
3. Significant increases in the amount and share of freight moved by rail and
significant d
i ifi t decreases in the amount and share of freight moved by truck.
i th t d h f f i ht db t k
4. Building a fossil fuel pipeline from the oil sands location in Northern Alberta
into the U.S.
5. Dealing with the negative consequences arising from building “in harm’s
way” by limiting/precluding development in high-risk areas.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 12

13. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
5. Dealing with the negative consequences arising from
building “in harm’s way” by limiting/precluding development
in harm s way
in high-risk areas.
Concerns about the increased severity and/or frequency,
C b t th i d it d/ f
and/or duration of catastrophic events such as hurricanes,
tornadoes, floods, droughts, fires, and earthquakes are the
source of arguments about the need for planning and zoning
regulations which are less permissive in terms of where
development occurs, and more discriminatory (restrictive) in
terms of where public monies are spent on infrastructure,
infrastructure
emergency services, etc.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 13

14. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
In view of the large amount of re-location that could be
involved,
involved and the large amount of new development that could
be directed away from “harm’s way zones”, questions arise as
to where and when this new surge of development could or
should occur, bearing in mind the different take-up capacities
take up
of existing communities, as well as the time and resources
required to bring on stream currently un-developed, or under-
developed areas which are not within “harm’s way zones”.
p y
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 14

15. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Figure 1. Implications for Canada of Changes in U.S.
Geography? Look to Map 1.
Atlas of Canada, http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 15

16. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Figure 2. Implications for Canada of Changes in U.S.
Geography? Look to Map 2.
Nairne Cameron using GIS Data provided by NAFTA CEC
http://www.cec.org/Page.asp?PageID=924&ContentID=2336
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 16

17. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Figure 3. Implications for Canada of Changes in U.S.
Geography? Look to Map 3.
Nairne Cameron using GIS Data provided by NAFTA CEC
http://www.cec.org/Page.asp?PageID=924&ContentID=2336
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 17

18. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Figure 4. Implications for Canada of Changes in U.S.
Geography? Look to Map 4.
Atlas of Canada, http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 18

19. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Figure 5. Implications for Canada of Changes in U.S.
Geography? Look to Map 5.
SSM
Algoma
Soo
Nairne Cameron using GIS Data provided by NAFTA CEC
http://www.cec.org/Page.asp?PageID=924&ContentID=2336
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 19

20. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Figure 6. Implications for Canada of Changes in U.S.
Geography? Look to Map 6.
g p y p SSM
Algoma
Soo
Nairne Cameron using GIS Data provided by NAFTA CEC
http://www.cec.org/Page.asp?PageID=924&ContentID=2336
Wikipedia (Creative Commons License)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Class1rr.png
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 20

21. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Table 2. Several Important Geographic Concepts, Factors, and
Interaction Measures Illustrated in Maps 1-6.
Adjacency Seven provinces (B.C., Alberta, Saskatchewan Manitoba. Ontario,
(B C Alberta Saskatchewan, Manitoba Ontario
Quebec, and New Brunswick) and one territory (Yukon) share
borders with U.S. states.
Proximity Many provinces in Canada are actually closer to states in the U.S.
than they are to other provinces.
Connectedness by air Many cities in Canada and the U.S. are linked by direct flights.
Connectedness by land
C t d b l d Many cities in C d and the U.S. are linked b roads and rail
M iti i Canada d th U S li k d by d d il
lines.
Connectedness by water Many parts of Canada and the U.S. share water bodies, including
the Great Lakes, the St. Lawrence, the Red River, the Souris River,
, , , ,
Juan de Fuca Strait, and numerous other lakes and rivers.
Accessibility Travel times between many cities and regions in Canada and the
U.S. are less than two hours for flights, five hours driving, and eight
hours by rail.
h b il
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 21

22. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Important Message from the Maps for Canada?
Since Canada’s geography (economic, urban, human,
transportation, resource, etc.,) is intimately related to U.S.
geography, it seems clear that if questions are being asked
about a new generation of spatial adjustments in the U.S.,
Canadians would be wise to pay close, informed attention and
ask:
 What does it mean for Canada?
 What does it mean for me?
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 22

23. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Figure 7. Implications for SSM and Algoma of
Changes in U.S. Geography? Look to Map 7.
SSM
Algoma
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 23

24. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Figure 8. Implications for Algoma of Changes in
U.S. Geography? Look to Map 8. SSM
Algoma
Al
Nairne Cameron using GIS Data provided by NAFTA CEC
http://www.cec.org/Page.asp?PageID=924&ContentID=2336
Nairne Cameron using GIS Data provided by NAFTA CEC
http://www.cec.org/Page.asp?PageID=924&ContentID=2336
htt // /P ?P ID 924&C t tID 2336
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 24

25. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Table 3. Important Geographic Concepts & Interaction Measures in Maps 7-8.
Adjacency SSM/Algoma District is that part of the Ontario border adjacent to Michigan.
Proximity SSM/Algoma District is closer to Michigan & Wisconsin, than to Manitoba or Quebec.
Connectedness by After a 90-minute flight from SSM to Toronto, flights to a number of U.S. cities can be
air made in 2-3 hours.
Connectedness by Roads running through SSM/Algoma District connect Michigan and much of the U.S.
land-roads Midwest to Northeastern & Northwestern Ontario.
Connectedness by Rail lines running through SSM/Algoma District connect Michigan & much of U.S.
land-rail.
l d il Midwest t N th t & Northwestern Ontario.
Mid t to Northeastern N th t O t i
Connectedness by The St. Marys River which flows between SSM/Algoma District in Ontario and
water. SSM/Chippewa County in Michigan contains the Soo Locks which enable freight and
pleasure craft movement between Lake Superior and the other Great Lakes
Lakes.
Accessibility Travel times between SSM/Algoma District and many cities and regions in the U.S. are
less than four hours for flights, six hours driving, and ten hours by rail.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 25

26. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Important Message from Maps 7-8 for SSM and
District of Algoma?
Since the geography (economic, urban, human, transportation,
resource, etc.,) of SSM/District of Algoma is intimately related
, ,) g y
to U.S. geography, it seems clear that if questions are being
asked about a new generation of spatial adjustments in the
U.S., the residents, entrepreneurs, etc., of SSM/District of
Algoma would be wise to pay close, informed attention and
ask:
 What does it mean for SSM/Algoma?
 What does it mean for me?
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 26

27. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Concluding Thoughts
 Fi
Five topics are used to illustrate th ki d of changes that
t i d t ill t t the kinds f h th t
could significantly affect U.S. geography in the coming
decade, and there are likely at least another several dozen
that warrant attention because of their potential impacts on
Canada, and/or SSM/Algoma.
 I suggest that even this small selection of maps is sufficient
t th t thi ll l ti f i ffi i t
to strongly indicate that spatial adjustments in the U.S. hold
major implications for Canada, and for SSM /Algoma
District.
District
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 27

28. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
 And, I further suggest that maps of this nature have a key
role to play in analysing and representing when, where, and
how the new generation of spatial adjustments in the U.S.
will be experienced in Canada and in SSM/Algoma.
 It is my impression that both Canada and the SSM/Algoma
area have high “need to know” levels in terms of
understanding the forces behind spatial adjustments in the
U.S.,
U S and the implications for Canada and the SSM/Algoma
area.
 I the event that the high need to know levels of
In th t th t th hi h dt k l l f
understanding are not in place for Canada, it appears that it
would be wise to implement a national research agenda to
deal with the knowledge gap
gap.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 28

29. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
 In the event that the high need to know levels of
understanding are not in place for SSM/Algoma District, it
District
appears that it would be wise to implement a regional
research agenda to deal with the knowledge gap.
 Finally, it follows logically from the preceding slides and
comments that maps and geographers have central roles to
play in both the national research agenda and in the
agenda,
research agenda developed and implemented for
SSM/Algoma District.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 29

30. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Acknowledgement
 Dr. Nairne Cameron prepared the graphics and the
PowerPoint slides. Her contribution to the presentation is
most appreciated.
ost app ec ated
 And, I also express appreciation to the sources of the base
maps used by Dr Cameron.
Dr. Cameron
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 30

31. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
Barry Wellar Bio-Note
Dr.
Dr Barry Wellar is Professor Emeritus University of Ottawa
Emeritus, Ottawa,
Distinguished Research Fellow, Transport Action Canada,
Policy and Research Advisor, Federation of Urban
Neighbourhoods, and President, Wellar Consulting Inc. He
is a Registered Professional Planner in Ontario, and a
Member of the Canadian Institute of Planners. Dr. Wellar is
the author of more than 100 papers in the transportation-
p p p
land use domain, and has received the Anderson Medal and
the Ullman Award for his internationally recognized
achievements in applied transportation research, and the
Horwood Award for his research and leadership in the field
of urban and regional information systems. In addition, he
has received the Service to Government and Business
Award f
A d from th Canadian Association of Geographers.
the C di A i ti fG h
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 31

32. Thoughts About a New Generation of U.S. Spatial Adjustments
His recent public presentations include “Geographic Factors
as a Core Element of Sustainable Transport Best Practices in
Metropolitan Regions in Canada” (A il 2007 in San
M t lit R i i C d ” (April i S
Francisco), “Sustainable Transport by Design or by Default?
Either Way, the Wasteful Ride is Over” (November 2007 in
Belfast),
Belfast) and Transportation: Inspiring a Sustainability Action
Agenda (May 2011, Ottawa).
Information about Dr. W ll ’ academic, research, public
I f ti b t D Wellar’s d i h bli
service, community service, and consulting activities and
productions can be found at various websites, including
wellarconsulting.com, transport2000.ca, slideshare.net,
wellarconsulting com transport2000 ca slideshare net
urbanneighbourhoods.ca, urisa.org., and
http://www.geomatics.uottawa.ca/ In addition, a Google search
for B. Wellar and Barry Wellar will yield a number of results
B results.
Dr. Barry Wellar 2011 Lecture, Algoma University Page 32