Challenge and Reconstruct Learning, Mekong Delta
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The Mekong Region Futures Institute introduced the concept of Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL), the use of this in cross sectoral negotiations in the Mekong delta, and lessons learned.
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Challenge and Reconstruct Learning, Mekong Delta
- 1. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL): cross sectoral nego6a6ons in the Mekong delta Dr John Ward Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute October 2015
- 2. Sustainability = conflict between compe4ng interests sectors & Sustainability = complexity ê advances in complex system methods ê widening policy-‐science gap ê engagement process to promote systems learning!! MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 3. Policy arenas vary: structured and unstructured problems Structured Problem excluded knowledge = con6nuing conflict excluded values = con6nuing conflict Unstructured problem Consensus of values Certaintyoffactsandknowledge NoYes Yes No Increasing science-policy gap MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 4. MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute Policy has to do with man’s problems with coping with his future …..policy brings to statement what is judged to be possible, desirable and meaningful for the human enterprise. In this sense policy is the nexus of fact, value and ul6mate meaning in which scien4fic, ethical and theological-‐philosophical reflec4ons meet.” (Winter 1966)
- 5. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 6. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 7. Mekong Delta Seal Level Rise and salinity intrusion 3 rice crops 2 rice crops rainfed rice shrimp rice-shrimp Salinity iso-line (4 g/l) Salinity intrusion effects: - Local agricultural land uses - Farmer’s livelihoods - National food security and exports Levels of salinity intrusion: - Climate change-induced SLR - Droughts - Upstream water use changes - Land uses and salinity management MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 8. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 9. Step 2: Shared visions for the Mekong Delta in 2040 0.2 ha rice-‐shrimp farming can sustain family No damage from sea level rise No environmental pollution No salinity intrusion Irrigation for aquaculture projects provide better living conditions Industrial development projects provide better living conditions Government policies respond successfully to environmental challenges -‐> control of industrial pollution and disease Government policies improve a poor family’s living conditions MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 10. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 11. Step 3: Existing beliefs Stakeholder beliefs Scien6fic evidence Hard adapta4on measures improve livelihoods SoP adapta4on measures improve livelihoods MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 12. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 13. Salinity intrusion + Dams + drought More saline land and less rice production (282,000 households) SLR by 30 cm: 50,000 ha affected ( of 1.8m ha) • 120,000 tonnes less rice (23m tonnes) SLR 30 cm + dams + drought 500,000 ha affected • 1,000,000 tonnes less rice MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 14. Recommended policy: the upgrade of exis4ng sea-‐dikes and construc4on of major estuary sluice gates in Cai Lon, Cai Be, Ham Luong and Co Chien rivers. 13,000 ha of land use change 355,000 ha <2g/l MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 15. Recommended Policy: land use change: 180,000 ha land use change up to 8 farming systems exis4ng rice shrimp retained MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 16. Principle adaptation options 1. Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) Large-‐scale sluice gates and dikes (Hard adapta6on) – $5b-‐$8b investment required – Some land-‐use change has to be reversed – Annual maintenance costs of about $500m – Main risk: damage/loss to storm surge and erosion Land-‐use change (SoT adapta6on) – Incen4ve schemes for re-‐op4mised land use – Re-‐organisa4on of farm systems and market access – Main risk: livelihoods in extreme years/events MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 17. Challenged beliefs Ini6al beliefs Post ChaRL beliefs Hard adapta4on measures improve livelihood Most effec4ve response to salinity intrusion combines hard and soP measures SoP adapta4on measures improve livelihood Small-‐scale infrastructure and land-‐use change most effec4ve adapta4on MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 18. Final workshop: amended beliefs and learning – Less polarized debate between agencies – Greater recognition of sectoral feedbacks and tradeoffs – Integrated research approaches and multi sectoral deliberations favoured – Avoid panaceas: diversity in policy deliberations and targeted implementation strategies – Some science outputs readily adopted (eg rice salinity tolerance) Structured problems – a different science role in unstructured problems: sustained negotiation and iterative solutions MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 19. Final workshop: amended beliefs and learning – Emphasize the importance of the participatory process to discover adaptation strategies – Accounting for National development agendas is crucial MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 20. Key lessons from ChaRL: 1. To avoid project irrelevance and sustain engagement, Partners need to identify the problem and co-design research and criteria of success 2. Cross sectoral impact can only be achieved through participatory processes if: A. The problem involves multiple sectors with contested values and objectives AND B. The problem requires integration of multiple sources of uncertain information and knowledge 3. Developing future visions is a crucial step to replace sector objectives with a plausible shared normative benchmark 4. Use tools/methods to manage complexity and assist decision makers discover sustainable solutions 5. Evaluation metrics need to correspond with the research question. E.g. Systems learning MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 21. Thank You Dr John Ward (MERFI) john.ward@merfi.org Dr Alexander Smajgl (MERFI) alex.smajgl@merfi.org MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute
- 22. Changing beliefs Workshops 1 & 2 Workshops 3 & 4 Workshop 5 Sea dikes will reduce salinity and increase agricultural produc4on Hard adapta4on measures improve livelihood Most effec4ve response to salinity intrusion combines hard and soP measures New rice varie4es help increase produc4on under increasing salinity SoP adapta4on measures improve livelihoods It is not necessary to do “big dykes” but small construc4ons are more important Sea dikes create risk for rice as storm surges increase Sea dikes will reduce water quality Small-‐scale infrastructure and land-‐use change most effec4ve adapta4on Shrimp-‐rice rota4on farming increases farm income Salinity increase triggers emigra4on Rice–aquaculture is best along rivers/canals (mainly fish, less shrimp) Upstream dams cause water shortage in the Mekong Delta Improved educa4on improves adap4ve capacity and livelihoods Investments need to be priori4sed and go to most vulnerable areas MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 23. MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute • Smajgl A, Ward J, 2013. A framework to bridge science & policy… Futures, 52(8), 52-‐58. • Foran T, Kemp-‐Benedict E, Ward J, Smajgl A, 2013. A technique…foresight... Ecology and Society, 18(4).6. • Smajgl, A., & Ward, J. (2015). A design … research impact evalua4on… Journal of Environmental Management, 157, 311-‐319. • Smajgl, A., Foran, T., Dore, J., Ward, J., & Larson, S. (2015). Visions, beliefs… Ecology and Society, 20(2):15. • Smajgl A, Xu, J, Egan, S., YI, Z.-‐F., Su, Y.,Ward J, 2015. Assessing …PES...China Environmental Modelling and So@ware, 69, 187-‐195. • Smajgl, A., Toan, T.Q., Nhan, D.K., Ward, J., Trung, N.H. , Tri, L.Q., Tri, V.P.D., Vu, P.T. (2015). Responding to rising sea-‐levels in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta. Nature Climate Change, 5, 167-‐174.
- 24. Shrimp can increase income by 50% Farming systems Total variable costs Gross return Gross margin Benefit-‐ cost ra4o Rice Shrimp Rice Shrimp Two rice crops (n = 46) 25.3 ± 1.1 46.8 ± 2.0 21.6 ± 1.9 0.9 ± 0.1 Rice – shrimp (n = 48) 6.0 ± 0.6 24.1 ± 7.9 16.3 ± 2.1 50.4 ± 9.5 36.8 ± 5.1 1.2 ± 0.3 MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 25. Salt tolerant rice crops improve livelihoods 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Salinity (‰) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Yields(tonsha-1 ) Tolerant Less tolerant Sensitive Tolerant: Y = 5.1 - 0.2X - 0.02X2 Less tolerant: Y = 5.3 - 0.9X + 0.05X2 Sensitive: Y = 5.0 - 1.4X + 0.1X2 MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute
- 26. Downscaled climate projec6ons Land use and crop modeling in a changing climate Ecological stocks and flows Dams and irriga6on Livelihoods and adapta6on poten6al Ci6es and estuaries Research elements Basin hydrological run off model: sediments nutrients Floodplain dynamics: floods and salinity MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute