WAS conference, Cape Town June 28, 2017

1. Fisheries and Aquaculture
Futures in Africa
Chin Yee Chan, Nhuong Tran, Timothy B Sulser, Michael J
Phillips, Miroslav Batka, Sloans Chimatiro, Malcolm Dickson
WAS conference, Cape Town
June 28, 2017

2. Fish foresight modeling: Cross CGIAR research
centers and CRPs collaboration

3. Fish is crucial to any
debate and action to
reduce poverty and
improve food security
and nutrition.
“
”
HLPE
High Level
Panel of
Experts
Why fish?

4. Why fish is important in Africa?
• ~20 % of African are undernourished
• Fish, as a source of ‘rich food for poor people’
• Other than protein, the main contribution of fish to food and nutrition
security is its lipid, micronutrients and minerals

5. Global and Africa share of fish production, 1950-
2015
2.3%
Africa

6. Thousand tons
Egypt 63%
Nigeria 20%
Uganda7%
Africa aquaculture production by sub-region, 1980-
2015

7. Comparison of per capita fish consumption in 2015
10 kg
Africa
Population: 1.1 billion
undernourished: 20 %
38 kg
Southeast Asia
Population: 0.6 billion
undernourished: 10 %
20 kg
World
Population: 7.1 billion
undernourished: 11 %

8. Africa fish utilization and supply, 1961-2013
Population growth rate: 2.6%
Fish supply for food growth rate: 2.8%
Fish per capita consumption growth rate: 1.4%
Population (X100 million)
and per capita
consumption (kg/person)

9. Africa net surplus, 1976-2013
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Milliontons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
BillionUS$
Export
Import
Tonnage deficit Value surplus
Net
import
Net
Export
Africa export higher value fish, but import lower value fish

10. Objectives
• Present the business-as-usual projection of future fish production,
net trade, and consumption in Africa to 2050
• Assess the alternative scenarios (investment interventions) that can
help address the current challenges and ensure sustaining fish
growth to meet the rising demand in Africa

11. • IMPACT – “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural
Commodities and Trade”
• Representation of a global competitive agricultural market for crops and
livestock
- 115 countries
- 281 food production units
- 32 agricultural commodities
• IFPRI modeling team develop IMPACT fish model to examine alternative
futures for global fish supply, demand, trade, and prices
Foresight modeling tools

12. IMPACT fish model
• Global, partial-equilibrium model
• Links country-level supply and demand through global
market interaction and prices
• Country-level markets are linked to the rest of the
world through trade
• World food prices are determined annually at levels
that clear international commodity markets

13. Fish to 2030 (2013)Fish to 2050 (2017) Fish to 2020
(2003)
Fish IMPACT model report

14. • Review the FAO historical production data of fisheries and
aquaculture from 2000 to 2015
• Current updating effort focuses on Africa, ASEAN and other the 10
top aquaculture and capture fisheries producer countries
Data and model update

15. Global and Africa fish production, 1950-2050
World AfricaMillion tons Million tons

16. Africa
Projected share of aquaculture and capture
fisheries production

17. Million tons
Aquaculture Capture fisheries
Projected Africa aquaculture, capture fisheries by
sub-region 2015-2050
Million tons

18. Item
Year
Average annual
growth
Average annual
growth
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (2015-2030, %) (2030-2050, %)
million tons
Aquaculture
production
1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.0 0.8
Capture fisheries
production
8.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 0.0 0.0
Net Trade -2.8 -3.8 -4.7 -5.9 -7.1 -8.6 -10.7 -13.4 5.1 4.2
kg/person/year
Per capita
consumption
9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.2 -0.3 0.4
Projected Africa aquaculture, capture, net trade,
and per capita consumption, 2015-2050

19. BAU Business-as-usual
HiYld High increase in R&D investment across the CGIAR portfolio
HiNARS High increase in R&D investment across the CGIAR portfolio + complementary NARS investment
Kg/person/year
Aquaculture production Per capita consumption
Impact of investment on aquaculture in Africa,
2015-2050

20. • Growth of Africa aquaculture and capture fisheries production is slow and
stagnant
• African total fish consumption is low, but per capita consumption slightly
increase till 2050
• More imported fish is projected to meet the increasing demand in the continent
• Many large multinational companies and international research organizations
are looking to the Africa region as the new frontier for aquaculture expansion
Conclusions

21. • Promoting sustainable commercial aquaculture
• Failure in promoting aquaculture in the past, adopt new approaches:
• Development of domestic private feed industries
• Diversification of culture environments and cultured fish species
• development of private hatcheries, especially those targeting high commercial
value species and those in high demand in consumers
• Facilitate international seafood trade to address fish supply deficits in the continent
• Government, private sector, consumers, non-governmental organization (NGO),
and donor agencies, need to foster cooperation to strengthen strategic
partnerships
Policy and investment recommendations

22. Thank You

23. WorldFish geographies