EDI Executive Education MasterClass- 10thMay 2023.vs2.1.pdf

Founding partners
New Energy Realities, Transition and Innovation
Halfway 2030
Executive Programme, Paris
10th May 2023
Adriaan Kamp- Founder of Energy For One World

Adriaan Kamp
Energy For One World (2012- Present)
A consulting practice on Global Change, Energy
Architecture, UN SDG’s and Leadership.
Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership
Education
20 years Industry and Shell International Upstream ( 5
Countries and EPHQ).

Contents of Masterclass
Module 1 Years 2015-2023: New Energy Realities
Global Change, Energy Transition & Innovation- Halfway 2030, in our
Decade of Action : COP28, UNSDGs and War in Ukraine.
Module 2 Organising for Success: Making the Change to Scale
Module 3 Leadership over Change (/Innovation)

5
2021
2030-2050
7.9 Billion
People
10 Billion
People
100 trillion
USD
economy
180-210
trillion USD
225 million
oil eq/day
(15 TW)
500- 750 million
oil eq/day
(55 TW)
414 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget
consumed for 1.5 degrees/ 21st
century
??? ppm CO2 and
Climate Change Effects

Question for the 21st century: Will it all fit?
6

Club of Rome (2nd March 1972): Limits to Growth

Club of Rome (2nd March 1972-2nd March 2022):
50 years Limits to Growth
1972 Limits To Growth.First UN Environmental Conference in Stockholm, Sweden.
Establishment of UNEP in Kenya.
1972 Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon visit China
1975 End of Vietnam War
1979 Margaret Thatcher PM of UK
1981: Reagan becomes president of the USA. Start of NeoLiberal World Order.
1986: Microsoft IPO
1987 Gro Brundtland Report: “ Our Common Future” Gordon Gekko “ Greed is
Good” in Wall Street Blockbuster Movie
1989 Fall Berlin Wall
1992 Rio Conference
1995 First COP meeting in Bonn
1996 Start of Mobile Internet
2000 China joins WTO- and global free-trade got its other boost
2000 Millenium Development Goals
2001 9/11 - Fall of Twin Tower
2012 Rio + 20
2015 COP21, UNSDGs adopted at UN. Laudato Si!
2016 Trump President- Exit Paris, Brexit
2021 - 2022 Corona, COP26, 27
2022- War in Ukraine: The Great De-coupling, Call for New World Order

Sir David Attenborough: A Life on our Planet
11

COP26, Boris Johnson (ala James Bond), Sir David
Attenborough and a Single Number 414

COP26 Optimism, New Initiatives and Breakthroughs
Stop Deforestation 2030
Methane Emission Reductions 30% 2030
Clean Technology Initiative
FGANZ- 130 trillion USD in asset finance
First Movers Coalition/ Breakthrough Catalysts
End Fossil Fuel (Coal) Investments/ Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance
Phasing-out the Combustion engine for LCVs
UK-India New Grid Initiative
UK-SouthAfrica New Power Initiative
UK - ESA space Agency Climate Change Research
Scotland Loss and Damage Fund
Etc etc

New Coptimism: China- US collaboration on Climate Action

SG Guterres at IPCC 6th assessment mitigation report
publication, 4th April 2022

Sultan Al Jaber : Bringing the World together for COP28:
1.5 Degrees alive

Climate Litigation vs the Corporate and the Prize Agenda?

2023: “ Climate Realities”

27
UN SDGs- Global Responsibilities

UNSDGS- Accelerating the Critical Transitions Required
29

Sachs on the “ Economy of Francesco”

War in Ukraine,
in the “ Year of the Tiger” :
A rare combination of Geo-political interests- , international
security- and global system fault lines that collide:
“ A perfect storm” .
(“ Democracy vs Autocracy”
1. Energy, Energy System and Commodity
Prices, and Access Uncertainties: The
Great-Decoupling
2. De-coupling and glocalisation of Global Value
Chains: Geo-politics, Security, post-Covid,
3. Inflation, Debts, Economic Risks and Stability
International Finance System (risks,
uncertainties)
4. Food, Energy and Finance Insecurities in
Developing and Developed Nations: Rise of
Poverties
5. Nature Agenda, Nature Crisis
6. US/ Western Political System- US Elections,
Western Re-actions, Chaos vs Order.
XiJinping re-election (“ Year of the Tiger”)
7. At UN, Call for New Order, China Peace
Plans

War in Ukraine : The Great De-coupling
Extension of Coal Licenses, Imports of new LNG, Energy Saving
Measures, Sanctioning of Russia Economy and Oil and Gas imports,
Rationing of Gas Consumption, Doubling of Renewables Capacities,
Subsidizing of Energy Bills to the Consumers, Oil Reserves, Scouting for
New Safe Resource Basins, including New Fracking, Accelerating
Transitions,

War in Ukraine
Impact on Energy and Sustainability : “The Great De-coupling” (1)
Closing the Ranks: If…then…Me, We, They,
Them and The Others…
….Are we truly “ in control” ?
Extension of Coal Licenses,
Imports of new LNG to Europe from US, Qatar, Africa
Energy Saving Measures,
Sanctioning of Russia Economy and Oil and Gas imports,
(Western Companies sanctionting or exiting Russian Assets
and Market)
Rationing of Gas Consumption,
Doubling of Renewables Capacities,
Subsidizing of Energy Bills to the Consumers,
Access to Oil Reserves,
Scouting for New Safe Resource Basins, including New
Fracking,
Accelerating Transitions, etc. etc.

War in Ukraine
Impact on Energy and Sustainability : “The Great De-coupling” (2)
"In uncertain times, one of bp's primary roles
is to maintain the safe, secure supply of the
energy on which societies depend. The
importance of that role has rarely been
clearer than in recent weeks."
Helge Lund, chair

42
The Saudi Prince of Oil
Prices Vows to Drill
‘Every Last Molecule’

Elon Musk: A Future Worth getting Excited about

Elon Musk/ Tesla- MasterPlan 3

IRENA capacities, investment and jobs

“COP26: On the back of an envelope”- 130 trillion USD
130 trillion over 30 years, is about
4 trillion per year.
Will that work?
Let me give you some hints:
First of all,
Today, our world energy system has a working capacity of about 15-20 TW,
and that equals 15- 20 Trillion USD in assets.
Presently, every year, the world needs approximately 300-400 Bn
USD/annum to counter depletion, allow for growth and maintain or keep the
oil and gas flowing.
Over coming decades our world energy system is expected to double: to at
least 40-50 TW is thus 40-50 Trillion USD in assets.
So spending 4 trillion USD per annum (on energy system), in a present world
economy of 100 trillion USD) looks like (more than) enough to see the job
gets done (ie invest in existing and new infrastructures transition)
Now and But, :
We, OECD, have today nor the capacity, nor the capabilities(manufacturing,
value chains) nor the skills (program management, engineers, construction
people), nor the socio-economic and political system to make these transition
spending programs at home, or abroad.
And: We need “to drive” our present incumbent energy corporations to change
this, scale-up and step-up.
And as a Swedish Foreign Investment Manager noted: It is not about the
money or on paper. This is about the real physical world: we find it difficult to
create bankable projects in a messy world, abroad. Collectively, we are invited
to become much better in project framing and de-risking- and realize beyond
our imagination.
The US-China co-operation and Boris Johnson New Grid Initiative
(with India) - can be the Kick-starter to see this going- and free-up
this dream of making Energy Free of Concerns.

From 80-20 till (60-40) till 20-80 before 2050: 4 Trillion USD/annum .

What “Power” comes out of your “Socket” ?
As Black as Black
can be
(Coal, Dirt, Unfair),
And
Unreliable
Affordable, Nor
Sustainable
Grey
Gas Powered
Imported LNG Gas, with
ETS Offsets/ Nature
Based Solutions.
Available, Costly
(but not 100%
Sustainable)
Local Utility Scaled
Renewables Plus Gas/
CCUS
Plus
ETS/ Nature Based
Solutions
With market rivalries, profit
seeking and competitions
Available?, Affordable?
(and not 100% sustainable)
Regional Utility
Scaled Renewables
(Super Grid) Plus
Local mini-grids and
Zero-Plus Home
(and sustainable,
circular economy
value chains)
(Energy Free of
Concerns)

WEC 2022: Energy for Humanity- St Petersburg: Cancelled!
57

1 Energy is a system- behind every button, switch and fuel
pump is a myriad of connections.
2. Energy Transition is a Process, not a destination and it
cannot be delivered all in one go.
3. Diversity in energy systems is increasing in the broadest
sense- geographies, technologies, skills, and cultures
4. The Future of Energy cannot be predicted, but better
energy futures can be co-created if we avoid fear , and
open-up to new and progressive bridges and pathways
5. Energy Technology Transition always involves societal
disruption and transformation
1. Rebalancing act between our Engineered World with
that of Nature.
2. Rebalancing act between ourselves- Rich- Poor,
North-South, East-West, Have and Have nots.
3. It is about the Climate AND it is about the UN SDGs
4. It is about making new Energy-Economies
Architectures: Sustainable, Inclusive and Free of
Concerns. Here and There. Now and Tomorrow
5. It is about Responsible, Decent and Servant
Leadership
WEC 100 years lessons on Energy
Transitions
EFOW 10 years lessons with Energy
Transition
( e.g. 99 Theses to Build Back Better)
WEC : World Energy Council led by Dr Angela Wilkinson

A Couple of (Policy) Recommendations
(from 99 Theses to Build Back Better)
1. Re-frame our present neo-liberal free-market Economies, there where required:
From Wealth to Well-Being, and in more harmony with Nature. De-growth &
Circularities - where needed.
2. Take Energy Transition Seriously- for making Energy-Economies Free of Concerns:
Realize the 3 to 4 tn USD/annum Finance, Capacities and Capabilities Build-up for
“The Great Electrification”
3. Re-organize present Energy Market Constellation- see Quadrant-, in the West and
with the Rest: Away from Free Market, Portfolio Opportunism & Sole Ownerships
towards true new and shared R&R, Utility and Commitments towards New Energy
Architectures.( “ Utility to the People” - there where relevant).
4. Realize UNSDGs in Trade and Trade Relations. Businesses and Governments can act
here more aligned and attuned. Strengthen UN Global Compact.
5. Build New Bridges of Peace, Capabilities and Hope.

UN
Regional Blocks
Countries
Cities
Communities
Companies and Institutes
Co-alitions of the Willing

Sustainable Community Building

Our world is under construction:
The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCities
and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
The top 10 cities by population:
1. Tokyo, (34 million)
2. Seoul (24.4 million)
3. Guangzhou (24.2 million)
4. Mexico City (23.4 million)
5. Delhi (23.2 million)
6. Mumbai (22.8 million)
7. New York (22.2 million)
8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million)
9. Manila (19.6 million)
10. Shanghai (19.4 million)
All above fit comfortably into the list
Of Top-50 nations by population

Organizing ourselves: “zippered”- in dimensions
Mainstream
• UN Re-organisation (0)
• Governments (1)
• Corporates and Global Compact (2a)
• Government- Business- Science Community (UN SDSN) (2b)
• New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3)
• Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system
Bottoms-up
• Community, Start-up Community (5)

Some Regional Development Examples
(as it is today)

71
Saudi Aramco IPO: the value of good reserves
960 × 540
Wall Street Journal

Click to Go To
Website
Germany: An example how it works- in real

Siemens
Dismantling an Icon
Since Kaeser took charge in 2013, there has been a flurry
of spin-offs, carve outs and joint ventures at the German
giant
● May 2014: Siemens slims its divisions to nine from
16; carves out health care and announces listing of
hearing aid business
● September 2014: Siemens sells stake in kitchen and
washing machine business to Bosch
● November 2014: Sells hearing-aid unit to EQT for
2.14 billion euros ($2.4 billion)
● June 2016: Announces merger of wind power
division to form Siemens Gamesa
● November 2016: Announces Siemens Healthineers
will be brought to market
● February 2019: Plan to form rail joint venture with
France’s Alstom is blocked by European authorities
● May 2019: Siemens announces plan to carve out
power and gas businesses

Germany Coal Commission: Phase-Out 2038 (??)
82
BERLIN (Reuters) - 26.1.2019: Germany should shut down all of its coal-fired power plants by 2038 at the latest, a
government-appointed commission said on Saturday, proposing at least 40 billion euros ($45.7 billion) in aid to regions affected by the
phase-out.

New Government; New Worldview. New Realities

Germany Energiewende
Goals:
Climate neutral by 2045
Phasing-out of Coal by 2030 (Luzerath!)
Outlaw combustion engines (e-fuels)
End Gas Power
Some Realities:
Nuclear exit, Gas from Russia Ended.
New Power, Gas, Oil deals with Scandinavia, US, Qatar, Africa
Step-up Hydrogen, LNG, Wind/Solar, PowerGrids
Need to fill-up gas storage again 85% (1 oct), 95% by (1 nov)
Dramatically behind in target to achieve 80% renewable Power
by 2030, as well 65% emission reductions.
State subsidies on Energy to Industry, to combat US, China
competition.
“ Mittelstand” Energy Prices sky-high.
Rescued and Nationalised part of Utilities (Uniper, in talks with
RWE)

Energy in the Netherlands (1)
• Rutte IV?
• What to do after “Groningen Gas
(21/12 Bcm) & New Energy
Transition (Climate) Accord- II ?
• What to do with/after Pernis?
• Electrification of Homes, Cars,
Transport and Cities
• Greening of intensive energy
Industries-, Agri-, Petro-;
• Regional Energy Markets
• What new export markets are there
to create?

Energy in the Netherlands (2)
The challenge the Dutch are facing is a triple national budget and investment
challenge:
• 1. The decrease in (state) income due to the earlier closure of Groningen Gas.
The estimated economic value of the lost gas is between 50-125 Billion Euro.
• 2. Additional expenses to be able to import Gas (temporarily) and as
"bridging fuel" - in the transition and accelerated investments in (eg) Wind
Offshore, as an alternative to the loss of Groningen Gas.
• 3. Renovation of Dutch energy architecture: Investments in electrification,
the built environment and agri-, industry- to "get off gas / gasless" and to
meet Paris [1]
• War in Ukraine
87

A New Green (Energy) Plan ?- NW Europe

EU “New Green Deal”- (1)
99

EU “New Green Deal” (2)
100

EU “New Green Deal”- (3)
101

Europe EU/ US New Energy Realities

US Congress Hearing on Biden Costs for Carbon Neutrality

Red-Lines, GreenWish, GreenWash and the Real Deal
106
Greenwashing Top 15 (it was tough cutting the list from 100+) by Assaad Razouk (energy specialist)
1 Big Oil rebranding methane gas decades ago as “natural”
2 Big Oil inventing carbon footprint calculators
3 Any corporate plastic “recycling” pledge: Of all the plastic ever created, only 9% has been recycled
4 Carbon capture projects
5 The green bond market: All bonds should be green
6 Any polluting company making noises about “planting trees.
7 Voluntary carbon markets (their time is long gone)
8 Corporate "net zero" pledges with no plans to cut emissions to zero
9 Oil companies trumpeting renewables while planning to maintain or increase oil & gas production
10 The IEA's '7 Key Principles for Implementing Net Zero' document omitting any mention of the words "oil", "gas", "coal" or "fossil fuels"
11 Anything insurance companies say about net zero or cutting fossil fuel exposure
12 Law ﬁrms
13 Almost all of the ESG ﬁnancial industry
14 Saudi Arabia wanting to plant 10 billion trees even though it doesn't have a single river
15 Carbon neutral LNG cargos

Some Examples- from our Energy Sector
(“as it was yesterday”)

Focus Areas (Energy Sector)
(Year 2019 and beyond- example only)
Oil& Petrochemicals – Plastics in the
Oceans, Fumes in the Air, and Carbon
in the Atmosphere
Gas, Emissions vs New Power- and
Mobility- Energy Architectures
Energy Architecture Developments,
Economies and UN SDGs
GeoPolitics, Free trade and “Energy
to All” or
“Energy-Economies Free of
Concerns”
Change &
Transformation

Old and New Clickable
Presentations
Vs 350 Bn USD investment

On the Power (electricity) system and market
112

Shells van Beurden: “Re-organizing to Fit”
113

Shells van Beurden: “Outrage vs. Optimism”
114

BP Looney New Strategy: “Integrated Energy”
116

121
The Saudi Prince of Oil
Prices Vows to Drill
‘Every Last Molecule’

Climate Litigation vs the Corporate, and perhaps the Prize
Agenda, At Al Jazeera.

Halfway 2030: New (institutionalised) possibilities thinking
,with Lessons Learned post-covid, Ukraine, New World Order
1. How do we look at our earlier options and choices, now?
2. What is going well? What can we celebrate ?
3. What is “under pressure or may turn out- an illusion”?
4. What may need to change- in our approach and tone of voice- knowing how Paris
Agreement and UNSDGs were constructed?
5. What key (sector, market, corporate strategic ) choices, interventions and (integrated)
decisions can we better mak?
6. What is (urgently) needed in order to succeed in what we are planning and aiming to
deliver- to our children and grand-children? What opportunities are we planning for to
deliver now and in 2030?
126

A little conceptual..
(adding it all together)

From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of
energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and
civil society.
The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political,
economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests
exercised on location.
The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of,
establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and
sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there.
Now and in the future.
132
Energy Architecture

Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships:
“X-Factor of Integration, Transition and
Transformation”
Renewables
Energy
Efficiency
Product
Re-designs
Energy
Architectures
Re-designs
Fossil
1 2
3
4
5

Princeton Wedges
Grow and Safe Energy
Change Energy Supply Source
Change Energy Architecture
Change Products (Cars, Homes) &
Industry Designs
Change Energy- Economy and
Direction of Lifestyles: Welfare
Change Leadership / Corporation
Paradigm
135

Levels of Change
•Level 1
•Level 2
•Level 3
•Level 4
• Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change
(CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying
• Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the
Energy Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership ,
revenue, tax and capital control structures
• Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio-economic and corporate
business models- also in international trade
• Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness

The way it works: Country Categories and Markets (1)
•OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia
•(Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec
•China Inc., India Inc.
•Developing (without Resources)
•Developing (with Resources)
•Least developed. Poor.

The way it works (2) : A New Formula in Business and Trade

Mainstream
•Governments (1)
•Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2)
•New Entrants/ Innovators/ Change-makers (3)
•Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system
Bottoms-up
•Community, Start-up Community (5)
The way it works (3): New Forms of Collaborations

The way it may work (4): Finding the Rubik-Cube Combination
“Organizational Forms and Formats” - that works
“Horizontal and Vertical Integration”
140
e.g.
Country
Categories,
Geographies &
Markets
Business Formula-
and
Cross-Sectors
Forms of
Collaboration
● Strengthening human well-being
and capabilities;
● Shifting towards sustainable and
just economies;
● Building sustainable food systems
and healthy nutrition patterns;
● Achieving energy decarbonization
and universal access to energy;
● Promoting sustainable urban and
peri-urban development; and
● Securing the global environmental
commons.

14
4
UN Global Compact- 20 years: It needs your HELP!

“Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this
world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability,
affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- Adriaan
Kamp, -2015
Every Country and Every Organization in this World can be
improved upon in order to raise the human, social, economic
and sustainable development to all- Adriaan Kamp- 2015
147

"The invitation we have today is to see and to blend our consciousness
and care for Deep Peace, Deep Humanity and Deep Ecology with our
more mainstream energy economics and politics- at play"
Let us direct our work and collective efforts towards attaining
“Energy Free of Concerns & Societies Free of Concerns”
Here and There. Now and Tomorrow
Adriaan Kamp
148

Building and realizing New Bridges

One World. Many Needs. Many Views

Leadership Levels
•Managing Yourself
•Managing Others
•Managing complex change &
•Managing communities & multi-stakeholders
change

Managing yourself

Founding partners
“Only good can come from good”

How much do you know about (your) self?

What happy people know

The answer to Hate, Greed, Social Injustice is
Dignity (Agape) and Peace
158

Founding partners
“Manage others as you would like to be
managed yourself”
(golden rule)

Managing innovation & change-
Internal/ External

Founding partners
“The art of making things Better”

Sources of Innovation
• Big- Bets • 1001-Nights, Kaizen/Takumi
• From Idea to Business
(Gamechangers)

Napoleon’s Six Winning Principles, and Leading in the Front
• EXACTITUDE
awareness, research and continuous planning
• SPEED
reducing resistance, increasing urgency, and
providing focus
• FLEXIBILITY
building teams that are adaptable, empowered and
unified
• SIMPLICITY
clear, simple objectives, messages, and processes
• CHARACTER
integrity, calmness, and responsibility
• MORAL FORCE
providing order, purpose, recognition and rewards

Kelly Johnson’s Skunk Work Rules

Styles Differs- too. Two trillion dollar club successes
167

170
We cannot save the Planet (Climate, Nature), if we cannot save
the People (Economy, Social Justice).
The People cannot be saved, if the Planet (Nature) is broken, at
risk or fails (e.g. pollution, resource scarcities, climate risks).
We better first solve (our problems, our pains), before we can
make true progress and change”

“”Resistance to change falls when the benefits are
made clear
Resistance to change falls when the Story feels Right
(“The Star” is Chosen “Right”)
We cannot “run” ourselves into Sustainability. Slow
down and walk in more beauty.

Responsible (& Situational)
Leadership

Servant Leadership
•Compassionate love
•Authenticity
•Humbleness
•Empowerment
•Provide direction
•Stewardship
Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and
foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people
they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than
dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee
well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound

Hofstede: Cultures and Organizations. The
way it works
178
The Way it Works for a System Rethink
World View
Cultures
Institutions
Our Leadership Ways

Core
Values
Cultural
Dimensions
Global People
Skills CONSCIOU
S
UNCONSCIOU
S

181
1. Sustainable Development- a new kind of
Globalization (2016)
2. Sustainable Humanity (2012)
3. We can no longer manage decency (2018)
4. Aga Khan University Special Lecture Series:
Can we find a shared global ethics for the 21st
century? (2020)
“Leading Global Decency”

“ Be a (bit) Royal” . “ Be a (bit) King” .
Lead with Wisdom, Compassion and in Full Service

99 Theses to Build Back Better (available on Amazon)
183

A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Our Leadership.
Energy For One World
Adriaan Kamp (Founder)
Skype: Adriaan.Kamp
TelCall Direct line (Netherlands):
0031-614939194
E-Mail:
adriaankamp@energyforoneworld.com
www.EnergyForOneWorld.com

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