Energy to All
•Descargar como PPTX, PDF•
1 recomendación•354 vistas
This document outlines a conceptual framework and action agenda for sustainable development goals related to global energy needs between now and 2050. It notes that the world population will grow from 7 to 9 billion people over this time period and the global economy will increase substantially. Meeting rising energy demand in a sustainable way will require reducing fossil fuel consumption in developed countries to allow developing countries to access energy for growth. Overall energy use per capita should increase through non-fossil fuels like renewables. An action agenda is proposed focused on sustainable policy, business models that enable clean energy infrastructure, and ensuring affordable access to meet social needs.
Recomendados
Más contenido relacionado
La actualidad más candente
La actualidad más candente (20)
Destacado
Destacado (8)
Similar a Energy to All
Similar a Energy to All (20)
Más de Energy for One World
Más de Energy for One World (20)
Último
Último (20)
Energy to All
- 1. Energy To All A conceptual frame and simple action agenda post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals Energy For One World May 2015
- 2. 2 2014 2030-2050 7 Billion People 9 Billion People 90 trillion USD economy 180-210 trillion USD 225 million oil eq/day 500- 750 million oil eq/day 400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century ??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
- 3. The State of Our World Energy System Three wise moves: • The Western (OECD-) countries could do well if they were able to “make room” and reduce their average fossil energy footprint significantly, in order to- • Allow and facilitate the non-OECD countries to grow and allow their benefits and wealth creation (opportunity) from fossil energy. • The general predicted increase in world average energy consumption per capita should ideally be generated by non-fossil fuels such as renewable energy. Overall world fossil fuel production is not to rise and should taper-down significantly if we do not wish to cross levels which can no longer be sustained or guaranteed for our economies, societies or nature. And an action agenda: • A political agenda: “We need better oversight and agreement on the rules of the game on sustainability and the dynamic developments in the world energy system.” We need policies, markets and regulations which supports the new • A business and large (energy) corporation agenda: “making room for the new: enabling the development of energy architectures of the 21st century” • A social agenda: “we need to allow for the poor and middle-class incomes: ensuring that energy once and when made available – remains affordable.” • We need leadership values of the 21st century : allowing for better integration of sustainability in the energy value chains and across borders. 3
- 4. From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society. The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio- political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on location. The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future. 4 Energy Architecture
- 5. Energy & Sustainability Renewables Energy Efficiency Product Re- designs Energy Architectures Re-designs Fossil Renewables Energy Efficiency Product Re- designs Energy Architectures Re-designs Fossil Today From now on 1 2 3 45 1 2 3 4 5
- 6. Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “X-Factor of Integration, Transition and Transformation” Renewables Energy Efficiency Product Re- designs Energy Architectures Re-designs Fossil 1 2 3 4 5
- 7. 7
- 10. Old vs New Clickable Presentations Vs 250 Bn USD investment
- 11. “Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- Adriaan Kamp, 2015 11
- 15. Conscious Capitalism The rise of new (global and business) leadership: Gandhi’s and Mandela’s Neuroscience , psychology and spirituality Gaia, Oneness and Global Mind-set. Transformative leadership Conscious Humanity
Notas del editor
- The question is: Can we energize ourselves safely and sustainably into this future world? From a 7 billion population towards a 9 billion global community From a 90 trillion USD to a 180-210 trillion USD From 225 boeq towards 500-750 boeeq- if nothing dramatically changes. And as today- and that is a fact – we have already ‘polluted” the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 – enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century. Add to that the Great Acceleration and the many other planetary boundaries we are seemingly at ease are crossing… Now – how do are we to do this – and how are we go-ing from here? === Energy is vital and essential to modern day life. In fact, the wealthier you become, the more energy you are likely to use. That feels logical. [2] Today, all activities on our planet are fuelled by a daily energy supply of 225 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Roughly 80% comes from oil, natural gas and coal (fossil fuels). It is expected that in 2050 the total amount of energy that needs be produced will amount to 750 million boe per day. This figure is based on a worldwide population growth of 50% in the coming 40 years, and a higher average level of energy consumption (5 kW per capita or 120 kWh per capita per day[3]). How can we deliver this large amount of energy in a clean manner?[4] How does the transition path to 50 terawatt look like?[5] The question is: Can we ënergize ourselves safely into this world? As today- and that is a fact - we already have ‘polluted” the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 – enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century. So- Now, if all people on this planet by then were to consume fossil (oil, gas, coal) fuel energy in the same way as people presently do in the West and wealthy parts of the emerging nations, we will be in for trouble, as we would need Five planets (for as much as we can understand now) to find and produce these resources. And we will have surely exceeded an acceptable carbon emission levels- endangering our lives and species for decades, if not centuries to come. The present trend is exactly that. So, over the next decades, - in fact today and tomorrow- the energy industry will need to find answers to the challenge. And that is You & me! The clean-tech industry- the industry of renewable energy supply, smart energy infrastructures [6] and energy saving- will have to play a significant role, perhaps much larger than presently predicted or seen. But will the speed of developments and integration of the clean-tech industry and its innovations be in time for the market? How about the time needed in order to grow these solutions to scale, and to develop the capabilities into a reliable new energy infrastructure? How about the present strength and distribution of the existing resource base in the conventional coal, oil and gas resource system? Will the new frontier reserves such as shale oil and gas be sufficiently strong in order to balance the expected (rapid and steep) decline in the existing and large producing fields? Can (all of) these new frontier production reserves be actually produced- from an economic, ecological and societal point of view? So with this rise in complexity and uncertainties both on the demand side as well on the supply side of the world energy system, and in a socio-technical context, we may expect the world energy system perhaps to run against triple-A limits (affordability, availability, acceptability) or may become unstable (price volatilities, market swings, security or unrest, etc.). [1] UN report, McKinsey report: The next 3 billion [2] See graph UNDP [3] 1boe = 1564 kilowatt-hours (kWh). Note that today’s energy consumption per capita is 2.3 kW or 55 kWh per day. There are big differences around the world (China: less than 2 kW; US: more than 11 kW). [4] BP 2030 Energy Future Report ( central source report for our study!) [5] Energy Future Project- Berkhout, de Ridder & Kamp [6] E.g. micro-grids, smart and supergrids [7] In this respect: oil and/or gas reserves
- Now- what do we know of tomorrow? The world of today and tomorrow is in rapid acceleration. In the amount of people living on one planet, In the amount of new wealth creation and distribution. 3 billion people in the BRICS and emerging nations joining the middle-class, And in the need for energy. IN order to have the comfort of mobility, housing, communication, school, health, jobs and life entertainment. So – our shared challenge is to discover and to create the circumstances and conditions, ie. accelerate the right innovations, in order to allow everybody to enjoy energy in abundance. That is part of the exciting journey we like to take with you in this open conversation .. ==== But let us look today at what the role of innovation is in Energy, and how we can approach this. A vision and approach to this Global Energy Challenge is outlined in an earlier edition of my (program) book “Energy For One World”. Some of the essential elements hereof have been researched in a sponsored study and thesis. The objective and focus of this opening presentation is somewhat different, but it’s a good moment to share here some of the key change challenges we are facing in our overall world energy system: “Three wise moves” (or “three simple, non-dogmatic and intuitive rules”) spring to mind if we look at the total and aggregate developments – in our world energy system, today: The Western (OECD-) countries could do well if they were able to “make room” and reduce their average fossil energy footprint significantly, in order to- Allow and facilitate the non-OECD countries to grow and allow their benefits and wealth creation (opportunity) from fossil energy. The general predicted increase in world average energy consumption per capita should ideally be generated by non-fossil fuels such as renewable energy. Overall world fossil fuel production is not to rise further significantly if we do not wish to cross levels which can no longer be sustained or guaranteed for our economies, societies or nature. And an overall action agenda: A political agenda: we need better and a global oversight and agreement on the rules of the game on sustainability and the dynamic developments in the world energy system. A business and large (energy) corporation agenda: making room for the new: enabling the development of energy architectures of the 21st century A social agenda: we need to allow for the poor and middle-class incomes: ensuring that energy when made available – remains affordable. We need leadership values of the 21st century: allowing for better integration of sutainability in the energy value chains and across borders. The role of the Energy Business, in all this – and in realizing a sustainable development and action agenda post-MDG 2015- is to our minds - quite significant. It is our view that the afore mentioned Global (Energy) Challenge can be best solved by a attuned collaboration between Policy makers and the Business and Energy professionals (and Executives) in the sector and around the globe. Hence our excitement in our practice to develop, create and realize the (informal and global) ´platforms and formats´- ie. the conditions and facilities- for the energy professionals and policy makers (Executives) to step-up in their leadership and approach to this (global) change challenge. Only by pulling and combining the best-and-brightest resources and knowledge available, and only if we allow ourselves to find ´new and fresh-styled formats or platforms´ Between: the conventional energy sector and the cleantech industry business-, finance-, politics- and science the East and the West, The North and the South The have and have not’s May we have a chance of raising our shared awareness and building the (innovative) capabilities and capacities within the sector, and across borders. The energy sector that then can truly remain the ´engine´ and blessing for our economies and societies.
- Now- let’s look at what the definition of the term- “Energy Architecture- is,”: (From WEF/ Acceenture:) The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society. But - The energy architecture on location is also a reflection of the socio-political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on location. Ideally, The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future. Quite interesting. But what does that mean? Best explained in a picture..
- And now comes some magic. In the Past and still very much today- the energy sector is and has been very much supply-side orientated. With the upstream (coal,) oil and gas sitting on top-of-the-value chain, and making and attracting the largest talent, capital investment and government income- they are and have been in fact determining the markets. Oil & Gas rules. The Fossil Fuel industry is and has been the undisputable Nr. 1- and the rest is and had to following The other "elements" in the energy value chain receive a much lesser role and as they are perceived less sexy, more detailistic to frame, and are seen less worthy (or less government income). Nevertheless and over the last decades, each of these "other" elements in the energy value chains - from re-designing houses and cars (Product- Redesigns) towards energy architectures re-designs ( E-on in Germany and Denmark), Sun and Wind have demonstrated some of their potential. And in the words of an ex-oil man, I have seen these 'other' stages being "de-risked" , I have seen the potential we have in better unlocking and I have seen how these "other" elements can be brought to scale. So- the change challenge we face today, and in order to serve sustainability, our economies and our societies- is to change challenge our industry habits, our mind-sets, our (energy) project framings and our approach: Changing the role of oil and gas. From being the Nr1 supply-sided determinant over the market towards the Nr. 5 serving and becoming the complementary powerbase (last stop, last resort) in case the (eco-friendly , sustainable and disruptable technologies) energy architecture cannot deliver to scale. Turning the priorities for project framing, investment and energy architecture 360 degrees around. Changing the game we play. Now- that requires some New Vision. And- that requires some New Leadership
- IN this new energy vision- an individual country need is no longer served by the traditional approach, but best taking the whole value chain and energy options in one conceptual framework forwards: We balance our Vision of our Future Society with the developments within our national and global Economies, with that of the needs of sustainability (local and global) with a vision on a new energy architecture. A new X-factor of Integration, Transition and Transformation. In essence- whenever we execute a new energy infrastructure project or opportunity- we look and review the whole. And we look where we can best spend our dollars worth of money in order to leverage the value of energy. And the first step we may want to take is that of Integration. Integration is simply the art of improving and bettering the business model and relationships between the (upstream) conventional energy sector with that of the utility firms, energy distribution, renewables, cleantech, energy efficiency and products designs (housing, cars, industry). Perhaps you remember Mrs. Maria vd Hoeven of the IEA comments last year observation: the energy sector is in need of change of business model in the utility sector. Well- the good news is; The Board of Germany’s largest utility firm E-on did so and decided end last year to do so. By bettering integration between the parties we can come to new and exciting new energy architectures which can help to maximize the amount of energy return from a single gas atom, electron or photon. In our cars, homes and offices/ industries. By integrating networks (peer-to-peer micro-grids, smart local grids, national and region grids)- the energy sector will be able to combine the best of both worlds: the world of small and many in de-centralized solutions with that of the world of few and large: de world of centralized energy solutions (the present blueprint). In the world of integration- we often use the word: smartness: to embody the new possibilities of better balancing energy demand with supply over a grid system. Now the trick in realizing "integration at scale" is actually a conscious choice made in the boardrooms of the various firms: it is the willingness to allow to unlock some new magic between the business parties in the energy value chain: to review and reflect on established investment decision making and pricing mechanisms/ business models between stakeholders and shareholders in the chain. It is the willingness and abilities of business leadership to actually manage and steer this "change-of-focus" within and between the energy professionals and trade: Today’s reality is that large parts of the energy industry are actually quite conservative in nature: how hard it is to change the roles and functionalities of established discipline heads within.? How hard it is to change the focus from profitability towards maximizing energy return from an integrated value chain? How difficult is it to change from output focussed to a more sensible way of looking at what the contributions of the energy sector are towards (one's own and global) economy, society and nature? So- we need every fire-power and ammunition in order to provide these professionals with the right meaning and incentives for change: - I sincerely hope that this lecture series and the work of global leaders such as Jeffrey Sachs and Maria vd Hoeven helps.. Integration also needs a strong and willing commitment to develop the right capabilities and capacities between the (upstream) oil and gas companies, the utilities, the network distribution companies and the technical service companies. This is large-scale, long-term program management. Not an art for the weak. It is the art of innovation: of making room for the new- and to allow new consortia to rise who can bring these new solutions, value and values to the table. My guess: It is about to happen. It is about to happen in a big scale. And it can truly create "new energy and excitement, new pride and passion" within and between the professionals in the energy industry and across the energy value chains. Is there a business case? You must be kidding: Just look at the facts and prognosis of what the world needs over coming decades- and how that may impact our lives and planet.. We just got to become a little bit more responsible and aware of what world we are living in. Do-ing nothing is simply not an option. Transition: Transition is actually the period of change. Whenever and where-ever boardrooms decide that today's status quo do not longer serve or guarantee a sustained future- we are and can be in transition. We open-up for the new, and allow other technical solutions and other business models and new organisations to develop or flourish. Within or outside ourselves. The word transition in energy is often used to describe the pathways moving from a dominant conventional energy infrastructure towards a (more) clean-tech, renewable, durable energy infrastructure- including the re-design of our houses, neighbourhoods, transportation and industries. Energy transition management is an art. It can be learned to leaders- and it specifically requires the abilities to change an organisation and established believes: How can we change staff and professionals who are trained and who solemnly believe in that their own profession and contributions will prevail? There are companies in this world who have demonstrated that they can change the DNA of their group: e.g. DuPont, Nokia. Resistance to change (or to energy transition) is large. Very large. In the conservative parts of the industry - in ministries or boardrooms in the emerging or developing nations, as well in the established markets of the West. Too many financial, professional , supply chain and stakeholder interests aspire to maintain or grow the status quo., or have been corrupted. To stay risk-averse- as the sums of capital and money involved, or the risks of failure or the reduction in profitability are simply too large to be carried by individual leaders. Only by having a right vision, and the right wisdom and leadership skills in a supporting context (stewards over a shared future) can we see the larger corporates to move along. In countries craving for energy- we see that energy integration and energy transition are much closer on the radar of leadership: unfortunately - and that is a truth- not all countries and not all cultures are able or fit to lead in this type of innovation. Change or transition is not without risk. Just think in terms of project and program management: the costs, times or returns from "transition/ innovation projects" are much harder to plan and predict than established blueprints. Failure is the biggest fear of many professional-amateurs in this field. Therefore I pledge that nations who can excel in innovation and who have the industrial capabilities and talent- take on this leadership role and proof and demonstrate to our world what new energy infrastructures can look like. At scale. Today - we know and can read that PM Modi of India aspires to have 100 smart cities in India. That's transition also: if Industry, Government (National or Local Authorities) and the Industry sector starts to work together: magic can be done. It's an absolutely fabulous industry with yet a huge and unlocked reservoir of re-newal (transition) potential. Transformation Transformation - is to my mind- the highest and most powerful form of change - in the three levels mentioned. It constitutes a new and shared awareness in mind. A new state of mind in and over the energy sector, over our society and our human well-being. It helps to see new essences of what may need to be done: e.g. Raising the energy sector's abilities in order to support and attain truly sustainable societies. That's a transformation of mind-set. Another transformation of mind-set is if in the ministries and boardrooms across the board we can instil the vision and passion to create energy architectures across the globe- which are durable, available, affordable and sustainable. That the energy professionals from Russia, India, China, Middle-East, Africa and the West can sit again at one table and start to honestly and openly "talk and walk " the path of super-grids, energy architecture integrations, city solutions, etc. etc.: Jointly designing and creating the next level of energy future and integration: Energy for All. -and by doing so making my newspaper reading ever so much more boring. I wish this kind of transformation- as I believe that the spirit of understanding that we all (and our children and children children) deserve and need energy in order to thrive on this planet can be helping in this matter. By instilling this story and this vision in the energy industry sector of today, and given all the geopolitics of emotions among ourselves, I believe we can help to prevent ourselves a lot of unnecessary suffering or troubles. So count me in. My practice is working on all these three levels of change-and is available to bring it to every corner of this globe. One thing I know for certain: Every nation on this planet, any energy architecture on location and in the region- can be improved upon. Can be improved on it's ways and means of Integration, Transition and Transformation- and in order to serve national and our global community. As such- I wish you a great deal of Sustainability AND Change!
- In our near future, we may best come to grasp with a new frame of “Energy Architecture” in the the energy sector- A frame based on (at least) 12-dimensions. 12 dimensions representing: People & Societies, Economy, Planetary Boundaries, Conventional Oil, coal and gas, Renewables- Sun, wind and bio, andn the Local, smart, de-central and distributed energy networks, including roll-out of energy efficiencies Our lIfestyles: Eco-conscious lifestyle- such as we can find in the Eco-villages in the west and in e.g. the rural communities of Africa and Asia We see Cities or Sustainable Cities Lifestyles And we see a lifestyle connected with High-Technology Advancement: A World Future Vision based on Science (Pulp-) Fiction, but now also more and more supported by some key research institutes: our science and technology is going to help us to create a complete new world order based on AI and perhaps abundance. And the 3 key consuming dimensions of energy Cities – and/or Sustainable Cities with energy-plus/ zero-carbon sustainable housing designs (including better materials) Transportation – in the air, on the water and on the road Industry- a selection and range of petro-chemical industry, agri-culture, etc.- now more and more in competition with nano-technology, miniaturization, 3D-printing, new material science based on AI/big computing. In other words:- So- developing and investing in an (national/ local) energy architecture becomes a little bit more than only investing or developing the supply side, or the oil, gas and coal side of the equation. Investing in an Energy Architecture now becomes a 12-dimensional frame, and whereby the stewards and stakeholders carefully review the best places to invest (or change) their time, money and resources in – in the community- and in order to achieve the best possible impact and sustainable conditions for their economies and societies – not only for the short-term, but for the years to come. And not only for the own location- but also taking the needs and demands of others and elsewhere in considerations. This new balance in investment and development in and over an Energy architecture- asks (government and business boardrooms) to change focus from a sole supply-sided focus (traditional) towards a much more balanced approach including into the realms of Economy, LifeStyle and the construct of sustainable houses and cities. an AND AND world (over 12-dimensions). And in this AND AND-world - the players in the energy architecture value chain sit (willingly) around the table, to better share and integrate their investment and dvelopment portfolio’s towards the best viable and sustainable energy architecture development concepts and solutions. For the whole. Not a private business matter, not a pure-free market play, not a play of state and governance. It is truly a new public-private compact. And that is a little bit different game than the traditional game played in the silo’s of the established large-scale energy and utility corporates – today- be it in state hands or in public listed company firms. So : Our today and tomorrow’s energy landscape asks and invites us actually to re-invent ourselves a little bit and to become a little bit more imaginative in our approaches and work collaborations in order to empower our societies and sustain our near future. The new role of the Energy Sector and Energy Professional envisioned is to become the new stewards, the new orchestra leaders- over these 12 dimensions. Why do I say that?
- But the future can be read and seen by the many “light-houses”, the innovation and change programs scattered around the globe. The signals and signs of new energy architecture become more and more real visible in the personal car mobility- where a wave and convergence of three technologies is going to smarten the car as we know it- from self-driving, self navigating and electric driven cars- we , and according to Industry expert- we are expected to see a “big shift” in consumer buying power and needs from 2020 onwards.. Another shift is and can already been seen around the houses: from distributed, microgrids, off-grids, self powered and heated homes- as now promoted by companies such as E-on in Germany and Solar City of Elon Musk or the Smart Cities of China, Middle-East and India… It's actually quite simple. On the moment that we embrace the principle from Me to We, and that our company or work is 'in service' of the wider community and we start taking decisions based on that principle -included the needs for future generations- our future flows and falls into place.. As I spoke earlier briefly on the opportunity for the Energy Sector to embrace New Visions and New Architectures befit for the 21st century - and now on "Avant-garde" Leaders such as Carlos Ghosn (Renault/Nissan), Google Self driving cars, Elon Musk with Solar City and Tesla, E-on Company of Germany, Sustainable Housing and City Planners in North-West Europe - or the Sustainable Cities in UAE-Masdar, China- Tijanjin, Chonqing, Saudi Arabia, or the 100 smart cities of PM Modi of India- demonstrating to us the way and ways by which new energy architectures are today possible, feasible and scale-able. But they do not come by itself. Actually- they thrive best if we can create the "winning community constellations" in the market, customers, governments (/policy makers) , investment community, suppliers and energy service companies on location- "in- one-go". In the words of Carlos Ghosn: Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future. (Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled PLV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self-driving and navigating new car concepts) The same is true for the roll-out of Solar City or the new E-on's . There where the technical/market eco-system is supportive and adaptive to embrace the changed and new-styled distributed energy architectures across urban communities- the flywheel will start to spin.. Traditionally - the energy sector is quite conservative and hierarchical, and furthermore orientated towards the supply-side of the equation: Those sitting on the upstream reserves (be it coal, oil or gas- ie. the money) determine to a large degree the project, sales and infrastructure development of the energy sector over the value chain well into the consuming locations. However- the "new song and dance" in energy and energy architecture development may no longer be best served by this game played in corporate silo's ( top-down) , - but is most likely far better served and played if done more and more in balanced community (of the energy professionals) across the value chains. Building a "well-tuned orchestra and community" between government, business and business innovation, community which are ready, willing and prepared to realize true and truthful energy architecture innovations and changes. Big and Small. === And we know that we have and are facing "great difficulties, complexities and challenges" in the continuance of "this great 20th century machine" in our near- and mid-term future in this industry. And not only on sustainability. Not only as we are accessing ever more remote, difficult, poisonous or environmental sensitive fields in our portfolio's of extraction and production, but also we are facing an explosion of energy demand around the globe: Now relate the above to today's approximately 250 BnUSD investment and revenue levels in the totality of the "cleantech - industry"- and the sums of money we put in R&D and innovation- and you may start to "see" and agree with me how "massively under-balanced" we yet are- in our overall world energy system: I wrote the following words (with some senior geology and energy futurists scientists) earlier: Today, all activities on our planet are fuelled by a daily energy supply of 225 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Roughly 80% comes from oil, natural gas and coal (fossil fuels). It is expected that in 2050 the total amount of energy that needs be produced will amount to 500-750 million boe per day. This figure is based on a worldwide population growth of 50% in the coming 40 years, and a higher average level of energy consumption (5 kW per capita or 120 kWh per capita per day[3]). How can we deliver this large amount of energy in a clean manner?[4] How does the transition path to 50 terawatt look like?[5] Now, if all people on this planet by then were to consume fossil (oil, gas, coal) fuel energy in the same way as people presently do in the West and wealthy parts of the emerging nations, we will be in for trouble, as we would need Five planets (for as much as we can understand now) to find and produce these resources. The present trend is exactly that. So, over the next decades the energy industry will need to find answers to the challenge. The clean-tech industry- the industry of renewable energy supply, smart energy infrastructures [6] and energy saving- will have to play a significant role, perhaps much larger than presently predicted or seen. But will the speed of developments and integration of the clean-tech industry and its innovations be in time for the market? How about the time needed in order to grow these solutions to scale, and to develop the capabilities into a reliable new energy infrastructure? How about the present strength and distribution of the existing resource base in the conventional coal, oil and gas resource system? Will the new frontier reserves such as shale oil and gas be sufficiently strong in order to balance the expected (rapid and steep) decline in the existing and large producing fields? Can (all of) these new frontier production reserves be actually produced- from an economic, ecological and societal point of view? So with this rise in complexity and uncertainties both on the demand side as well on the supply side of the world energy system, and in a socio-technical context, we may expect the world energy system perhaps to run against triple-A limits (affordability, availability, acceptability) or may become unstable (price volatilities, market swings, security or unrest, etc.).
- So- I dream of the moment that we can say: Energy is no longer an issue that can divide our nations, that can affect or deprive people from their economic activities, social comforts or freedom of movements- nor that it can endanger our animal life, our lands and seas or our biosphere. I dream of a world of energy abundance. I dream of a world where energy is no longer an issue of national security- but I dream of a world where we speak about making and having energy available to all.. I dream of a world, where a farmer, a manufacturer or a city community can no longer be pulled back, starved or downed by the price or the availability of energy.. I dream of a world where the exploration, production and distribution of energy is no longer a danger to our animal life, our natural land, our seas or our biosphere- and man itself. I dream of an energy industry which is truly vibrant and supportive to the rise of sustainable societies, without the spin, self-protection, defensive sustainability or riff-raff. I dream of an energy industry - healed from the (financial) interests by those who can play with prize, access, power, investment levels, and so on. I dream of a world where all the energy professionals - and across the value chains- feel part in a "global brotherhood"- an elite group of professionals- like in the health-sector- and who truly serve societies - and are organizing, empowering and enabling themselves to create the energy architectures we need. I dream of a world where the energy sector is "free of concerns" We need large-scale business innovation in the energy sector. We need to revolutionize parts of our today's 20st century energy infrastructures to a next level of sustainability. Not only to Sustain (think Lima).- but also simply to stay out of trouble (Think Nobel Peace Prize) ===== We need the energy profession, the energy corporations the business leadership of the energy corporations to become much more responsible and engaged in the actual change challenge and dimensions of the change challenge we are in. Stewardship over the Energy Architecture - by the Energy Businesses itself- in a global-, local- and corporate setting is a new and emerging business leadership role. Within the energy sector, and across the energy value chains, great political-, economic-, social-, technological-, ecological- and organizational- shifts and dynamics are taking place. Leadership over Energy corporations, today- be it in Coal, Oil & Gas, Utility, Renewables, Distribution or Energy Support firms – requires a new balancing act: attuning “corporate strategies and organizational forms” with that of the “ dynamic context change and societal needs” they are in. I dream to see those Leaders to stand-up in the larger Energy (Oil and Gas) Corporations and to start to walk this path. I dream that today's hero's and Energy & Sustainability leaders - such as Carlos Ghosn, Elon Musk, E-on Board, Peter Head (former Arup founder) get embraced, supported, replicated and brought to scale- not resisted- by the Leaders within the Large-scale energy corporations around the globe That is what I dream.
- The Energy professional of today and tomorrow - is invited and asked to be able to: - Balance, listen and translate needs and views of the variety of (national and international) stakeholders into a workable vision and plan. - Innovate and lead the local-, regional- and global energy architectures to a next level of performance. - Work for the business whilst maintaining an eye on society and the common good, economy (profitability), sustainability and relevance. Global Change has everything to do with the rise in population, the general increase and rapid distribution of wealth and the growing needs for Energy (to fuel the people and economies). Global Change has also much to do with the dynamic shifts in geo-political balances and (international) relationships and decision making, the ways in which the global, regional and national energy markets develop and in the ways we dare to elevate our societies for the better including sustainability. As Energy is a relative slow moving, but a very large sector - our today's decisions, choices and behaviours in aggregate and in the Energy Land determine to a large degree the outcome of our efforts. Will we stay out of trouble? Will we be surprised? Or are we going to meet a wall? Today's Stewardship over the Energy Architecture is hence an essential new leadership skill: In Business and in Governments.
- Year 2015 may be a Pivot Year in Energy Land. First of all, and at the end of 2015, we will experience the results of years’ of climate change negotiations in Paris. Secondly, and in September of 2015, the UN is to agree and embark on a ground-breaking program of capacity and capability building in the realms of Sustainable Development. In both programs- Energy and the Energy Sector are crucial and vital element for it’s success. The world is craving for resources. Resource exploitation becomes ever more complex and costly. The future of resource exploitation complex and difficult to improve or innovate. How do we stay out of trouble in a world where everybody wants to win or live abundant- and in an industry sector which is reaching it’s limits of growth or is running towards scarcity or unsustainability? And not forgetting all the concerns with human live, health (in consuming the product) and our natural environment (“the great acceleration“) . Well – that- and in a nutshell- is the Energy sector, today. In the words of Ban-Ki Moon: We are the last generation that can fight climate change. We have a duty to act How are we going to live together and provide energy to all people of this world – reliably, sustainably, affordable, and in harmony? Can we build Sustainable Societies for all? Stewardship over the Energy Architecture[1] in a global-, local- and corporate setting is to our mind a new and urgent business leadership role. Energy For One World practice focus is on the outlook and present workings of our world energy system- and how we can improve our individual and collective strategies, decisions and action making on Energy Architecture (local, regional, and national) -for our Economies, Sustainability and Societal needs. The practice is directed towards the realization of systematic improvements in the local and global energy system and outlook. To enable partners to define and realize the opportunity space for business and government to succeed in the energy world of today and tomorrow. A key perspective is in our understanding that all nations and all people have a fundamental right for energy. In order to achieve this, and for a growing world population, we may want to improve on our local, regional and global energy system realizations. Energy For One world helps to develop a (local and relevant) strategy- balancing Energy with Economy, Society and Sustainability needs, and based on this strategy, on how to define and realize (business or national) opportunities. We have a global outreach and intelligence network – and partner with a range of very senior representatives and reputable seniors from Academics, Institutes, Energy Corporations and Consulting. ==== Stewardship over Energy (and Energy Transition management) requires clarity of vision, awareness, focus and the relevant change and balancing strategies which require the development of new competencies, capabilities, capacities and skills - in business and in the energy trade. Over the coming years and decades, Leaders and Professionals in the Energy Industry will be challenged on Global (Energy) Change. The causes of a crisis in the energy landscape can all be to do with uncovering revelations on resource ownership or availability of recoverable reserves (conventional or unconventional) or the sheer trading and international play with access to resources or demand-supply imbalances. The fact is that some of the people sitting on top of the value chain and controlling the money streams of energy may not all have or share this incentive for change. The opposite is true for the people outside the sector, at the lower scale of employment and who are made dependent on the availability of energy. These people are vulnerable, and generally have no voice - or take to the streets when it is generally much too late. The growing and rising global middle-class of the world - soon a 3 billion+ people - are squeezed in between those two layers - and will feel the rising pressures of the cost of energy and transportation in their households. Energy craving or energy scarcity in one nation, can lead to trouble elsewhere. Energy shortage or energy price hikes can cause economies to falter or stagnate, and governments to topple. To that end, it can be compared with the continued rise and fall of crises in our global financial sector. One nation can affect another nation. And so on. Making decisions on energy, energy policy and energy architecture are hence utmost important ones. Not only because of the impact they have - directly and indirectly - on the economy and countries involved, but also because many of the energy decisions are made in time - but have a lasting effect over time that sometimes impact our global (energy) system for the next 20-30 years. It is very difficult for governments and business board rooms to see and reflect on their individual actions short or long-term – and in a global market situation where most parties are seeking to gain. To understand the geopolitical, socio-economic and ecological consequences of their deeds – now and in time, individually and in aggregate in the sector. Moreover, and especially, when all of us do have to operate in a market which is pretty dynamic, unpredictable and uncertain. On all dimensions. The demands to continue to make energy reliably available in one nation or to the whole, for an affordable and in an acceptable (think: sustainability) way is most likely to become a pressing challenge. That's why we and I - at Energy For One World- are so excited that we have chosen these three features in one program and practice. Global Change, Energy and Stewardship. Global Change has everything to do with the rise in population, the general increase and rapid distribution of wealth and the growing needs for Energy (to fuel the people and economies). Global Change has also much to do with the dynamic shifts in geo-political balances and (international) relationships and decision making, the ways in which the global, regional and national energy markets develop and in the ways we dare to elevate our societies for the better. As Energy is a relative slow moving, but a very large sector- our today's decisions, choices and behaviours in aggregate and in the Energy Land determine to a large degree the outcome of our efforts. Will we stay out of trouble or will be surprised and are we to meet a wall? Today's Stewardship over the Energy Landscape is hence an essential new leadership features. Stewardship over Energy (and Energy Transition management) requires clarity of vision, focus, courage and discipline in order to realize relevant change strategies which require new competencies, capabilities, capacities and skills. As change is required. Change in our Perspectives over the Energy Landscape. Change in the organisational forms by which we discuss and aim to resolve the energy challenge, and Change in the Leadership approach to the challenges awaiting us. It is this change (of Vision, Organizational Form and in Leadership ) which is - to my mind- the essential ingredient for our success. Whilst much of building the new energy architectures of the 21st century depends on our abilities to unlock and apply the new and promising energy technologies in powering our transportation, housing and cities and general infrastructure- it is this change of style and approach - with and within the sector which creates to my mind the best conditions for us to have a chance in the change. There is a great parallel in the developments in the international finance markets and those of the energy landscape (as there are differences, too). The causes of a crisis in the energy landscape can all be to do with uncovering revelations on holdership or availability of recoverable reserves (conventional or unconventional) or the sheer trading or international play with access to resources or demand-supply unbalances. The fact is that the people sitting on top of the value chain and in the money streams of energy have not a great incentive for change. The prognosis is that their status, position and influence over our society is only to grow. The opposite is true for the people outside the sector, at the lower scale of employment and made dependent on the availability of energy. These people are vulnerable, and generally have no voice- or take to the streets when it is generally much too late... The growing and rising global middle-class of the world - soon a 3 billion -plus people- are squeezed in between those two layers - and will feel the rising pressures of the cost of energy and transportation in their households. Meanwhile- and the larger and more powerful nations and continents on this planet- are also intertwined in a "cold resource war". Will these countries be able to come to grasp with a shared responsibility over energy and it's distribution- or will we see a much more competitive and -at times- rivalling and unhealthy relationships develop? Fact is - that all sides in this equation- believe in their right. That's why a shared stewardship over the energy landscape is so important. To better take responsibility over the whole. In a national or regional agenda, but also at the global and international scale.
- And finally- there is a perspective on the rise of a more conscious and shared leadership style. A leadership style which can transcend over own or own community needs and believes, and who can work, think and act from a global mind-set. Truly looking at complex situations from a detached, almost neutral position- and with the intent to best serve the whole. Making best use of positive psychology and hope. Whilst the above views are brief and just an example- and in no means intended to be conclusive- they can help us to better understand the situation we are in- and what stakeholder groups mind-maps can be. This is important for us to know. Perhaps it is relevant that before we address any problem, any complex situation- we may first better understand in what categories of perspectives our society and stakeholders are in today.. MY expectation is: all of the above and perhaps more. So- our pathways need to find some form of resonance (or ring some hidden bells) in them all. And remember: Resistance to change falls when the benefits are made clear. So- our pathways forward need to be able to demonstrate the benefits to all stakeholders. Collectively and individually. We have to become true social artists… That’s quite a challenge!!