1. The Interdependence Between
Urban and Rural Food Security in
Asia
Professor Paul PS Teng
Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning, NIE
Senior Fellow, RSIS, NTU,
Dr. Margarita Escaler
Research Fellow
National Institute of Education,
and
Dr. Mely Caballero-Anthony
RSIS, NTU, Singapore

2. Outline of Presentation
• Food security landscape in Asia
• Importance of urban food security
• Multi-dimensional nature of food security
• Urban-rural linkages and interdependence
• Policies & action interventions
• Case study: Singapore

3. Food Security Landscape in Asia
Asia: A contrasting scorecard
• 60% of world’s population
• Six of the top ten most populous countries
• Fastest growing economies – “Asia-7”
• 3.1B people; GDP $14.2Trillion
• 27% of global GDP (rising to 51% in 2050)
• Half of world’s urban population
• More than half of world’s slum population
• Eleven megacities
• Large agricultural exporter and importer
• 60% of world’s under-nourished

4. Food Balances in Asia
Crop Item 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Million MT
WHEAT Global Production 596 612 682 684 648
Asia Imports 35 31 34 35 33
(% of Global Exports) (30) (27) (24) (26) (27)
RICE Global Production 421 434 448 440 452
(milled)
Asia Imports 10 8.5 6.9 8.6 8.7
(% of Global Exports) (31) (29 (24) (28) (29)
CORN Global Production 714 795 799 812 814
Asia Imports 34 35 34 37 36
(% of Global Exports) (37) (36) (40) (39) (39)
SOYBEAN Global Production 237 221 212 261 258
Asia Imports 39 48 51 61 68
(% of Global Exports) (56) (61) (66) (65) (69)
Source: USDA FAS

5. Food Security Landscape in Asia
Asia by 2050
Population
Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total
2010 2010 2010 2050 2050 2050
ASIA 1.8 2.4 4.2 3.4 1.7 5.1
WORLD 3.5 3.4 6.9 6.3 3 9.3
Three key drivers
• ~20% increase in total population
• ~89% increase in urban population
• 51% of global GDP (from 27% in 2010)

6. Food Demand Changes in Asia
• Reduced per capita consumption of rice
• Increased consumption per capita of wheat and
wheat-based products
• Increased diversity in the food groups consumed
• Rise in high proteins and energy dense diets
• Increased consumption of temperate zone
products
• Rising popularity of convenience food and
beverages
• Westernization of diets
Source: Pingali, FAO 2004

7. Food Demand Changes in Asia (cont’d)
• Meat consumption
100 years ago, average 25 kg/person/yr
Today, average 80 kg/person/yr (USA – 124 kg/person/yr)
China:1962 – 4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 60 kg/person/yr
• Fish consumption
1960s – 9.9 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 16.4 kg/person/yr
China accounted for most of world growth (26.1 kg/person/yr)
• Vegetable consumption
- 1970s – 60 kg/person/yr; 2000 – >100 kg/person/yr
- China: 1970 – 44.4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 270.6 kg/person/yr

8. Urbanization of Asia
At present, 50% of the world’s
Asian Urbanization 2010 2050 population lives in cities – Asia
Total Urban Population 3,486 6,285 accounts for half the share
(millions)
By 2050, 70% will be urban
East Asia 785 1,189 (mostly in developing
West Asia 155 296 countries) with Asia seeing an
increase of ~1.7 Billion
Southeast Asia 247 501
South Central Asia 571 1,396 Shift in the locus of poverty to
Urbanization (%) cities
East Asia 50 79
Increase in slum dwellers to
West Asia 67 75 828 M in 2010 from 777 M in
Southeast Asia 42 66 2000; Asia accounts for more
than half the world’s total slum
South Central Asia 32 56 population
ASIA 1,758 3,382
Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision

9. Importance of Urban Food Security
“A hungry person with low
blood sugar is a very angry
person – virtually
ungovernable”
Ruth Oniang’o

10. Why is food a security issue?
Globalisation Food
Shortages Deterioration of Health
Deterioration of Nutrition
Food Price
Increases
Loss of Life
Food
Conflict
Insecurity*
Conflict
Food
Hoarding Economic Instability
Political Instability
Climate Change
Food
Contamination Social Instability
* Lack of access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food

11. Unique features of cities
- Most food is purchased
- Food basket is more varied and more diverse
in origin
- More vulnerable to changes in the int’l markets
- Supermarket chains and control
of access
- Availability of more processed foods
- Higher food prices have greater adverse effects
- Poor living conditions for urban poor
- Jobs of urban poor and insecure, uncertain

12. Multi-dimensional Nature of Food Security
Aquaculture
Animal Feed Capture Natural
Fish Ecosystems
Biofuels Poultry
Mammals III.
Economic Access
Other Uses II.
Physical Access
Trade
Production Distribution Demand for
Household
Food
Imports
Food Security
Stockpiles
Processing/
I. Availability Distribution
Losses
IV.
Utilization
Primary Production
Crops/Animals
Inputs Sunshine
Population Increases
Labor Land Water Diet Diversification
Lifestyle Changes
Urbanization Etc.

13. Issues of Concern
Availability Physical Economic
Utilization
Access Access
• Fragility of • Poor infrastructure • Social • Health and
agro-systems • Conflict programs, nutrition
• Climate change • Market safety nets • Fortification
• Competition for imperfections • Employment programs
land • Waste • Income • Education
• Changing • Etc. • Macroeconomic • Etc.
demographics policies
• Waste • Entrepreneurship
• Int’l trade • Etc.
policies
• Biofuel policies
• Subsidies
• Etc.

14. Urban-Rural Inter-dependence
URBAN RURAL
- Urban markets spur economic growth in countryside
- Urban residents depend indirectly on agriculture
- Incomes from non-agricultural activities and remittances help decrease
rural poverty & increase agricultural innovation
- Commuting and circular migration for rural residents decreases
dependence on subsistence production for food security
- In times of crisis, urban residents may migrate to countryside
- Cities can have a more direct link with agriculture via urban and peri-
urban agriculture

15. Threats to Urban Food Security
Natural calamities and pest outbreaks
Macro-economic policy changes
Unseasonal weather patterns
Rising energy prices
Competition from energy sector
Temporary illness/ unemployment
URBAN RURAL
Poverty
Underinvestment in agriculture
Competition for land
Changing demographics
HIV
Climate Change
Fragility of agro-ecosystems
Agricultural policy Changes

16. Feeding cities requires rural surplus production
RURAL Food
Production
Role of
URBAN and consumption
public sector
At source
PERIURBAN
Food
Production
and consumption Role of
RURAL
private sector
Export of
PERIURBAN surplus
URBAN

17. Approaches to ensure future surpluses in the “Hinterland”
and in the global food supply chain?
• Closing the yield gap – e.g. increasing farmer access to better seeds,
fertilizers, water and pest management practices, equipment, training;
improving market infrastructure and transport, etc.
• Increasing production limits – e.g. modern biotechnology to improve
seed
• Reducing waste
• Changing diets
• Expanding aquaculture
CHALLENGE: All of the above must be done in an
environmentally sustainable manner

18. Policy & Action Interventions - Examples
Physical Economic
Availability Utilization
Access Access
• Increase • Improve • Social • Biofortification,
agricultural transport and programs, dietary supple-
productivity infrastructure safety nets ments, education
• Reduce waste • Link farmers to • Increase • Improve health
markets entrepreneurial care
• Encourage skills of farmers
sustainable • Reduce waste • Monitor nutritional
int’l trade • Non-farm security progress
employment
• Review • Improve infra-
agricultural/ structure/hygiene
biofuel policies
INVESTMENTS

19. Interconnected Policy Making
Agriculture Water Supply
Health & Nutrition
Trade Energy
Finance
Land use
Education FOOD SECURITY
Environment Social development
Economic development
National security Migration
Labour & Employment
Political stability
Public works

20. Food Security: geographic connectivity
Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food
Supply and Demand at regional and global levels --
Distribution
ASEAN
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE & AMERICAS
Global Food Supply Chain

21. Country Major Ag Commodities Produced World
Ranking
Brunei rice, vegetables, fruits; chickens, water buffalo
Burma rice, pulses, beans, sesame, groundnuts, sugarcane; 2- pigeon pea,
cowpeas; 3-
sesame
Cambodia rice, rubber, corn, vegetables, cashews
Indonesia rice, cassava (tapioca), peanuts, rubber, cocoa, 1- palm oil,
cloves, cinnamon,
coffee, palm oil, copra; poultry, beef, pork, eggs coconuts;
2 – rubber,
pepper; 3 – rice,
coffee, cocoa
Laos sweet potatoes, vegetables, corn, coffee
Malaysia rubber, palm oil, cocoa, rice, coconuts, timber, 2 – palm oil;
3 - rubber
pepper
Philippines sugarcane, coconuts, rice, corn, bananas, cassavas, 2 – coconuts,
pineapple
pineapples, mangoes; pork, eggs
Singapore orchids, vegetables; poultry, eggs; fish, ornamental
fish
Thailand rice, cassava (tapioca), rubber, corn, sugarcane, 1 – rice & shrimp
exporter; 1 –
coconuts, soybeans rubber,
pineapple; 2-
eggs
Vietnam paddy rice, coffee, rubber, cotton, tea, pepper, 1- cashew
pepper;
soybeans, cashews, sugar cane, peanuts, bananas; 2 - coffee; 2 –

22. Why should Singapore be concerned?
ASEAN
ASIA-PACIFIC
Singapore’s food sources
EUROPE & AMERICAS
• Net food importing country with limited land
resources and largely urban environment
• Imports over 90% of its food
• Local production accounts for 23% eggs, 4% fish,
7% leafy vegetables consumed

23. Enhancing local food supply resilience
• Increase self production of selected items
• Diversify food sources
• Develop non-traditional supply chains through smart
partnerships
• Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture (UPA)
– Agroparks; Aquazones
– Vertical farming
– Roof top aquaponics, aeroponics, etc
• Stockpiles
• Reduce waste
• Etc.
“National Food Security depends on Regional
and Global Food Security”

24. Conclusions
• Food security in Asia needs to be a priority – threat
of hunger & instability could increase
• Urban dimensions of food security merit distinct
attention
• Food security is multi-dimensional
• There is no quick fix
• More interconnected policy making is critical
• More holistic approach is required
• For Singapore, a broad-based, multi-sectoral,
cross-nation approach is needed to ensure urban
food security