Climate change in_a_living_landscape

Climate change in
a living landscape
Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability
assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia,
Ecuador and Peru

Climate change in a living landscape:
Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera
Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru
This publication is adapted from Cambio climático en un paisaje vivo: vulnerabilidad y adaptación en la Cordillera Real
Oriental de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú. Cali: Fundación Natura -WWF Colombia.

© WWF
ISBN: 978-958-8353-34-0

Edited by: Editorial coordination:
María Elfi Chaves Carmen Ana Dereix R.
Forests and Climate Change Project Coordinator Publications and Brand Officer
WWF Colombia WWF Colombia
Luis Germán Naranjo
Conservation Director Photographs:
WWF Colombia Luis Germán Naranjo
WWF Colombia
Santiago de Cali, Colombia. november 2011
Design and Layout:
El Bando Creativo

With the support of:

The geographic denominations in this map do not involve, on the part of WWF, judgment some or with respect to the
legal condition of Countries, Territories or Areas, nor with respect to drawn up of their borders or limits.

Content

Introduction.............................................................................................................. 5
Chapter 1: Determining vulnerability
of Andean ecosystems to climate change:
who is vulnerable to what??........................................................................... 7
Vulnerability of Andean ecosystems to climate change...........................................11
Chapter 2: Vulnerability analysis methodology
for the Eastern Cordillera Real................................................................... 13
Area of study.................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Evidence of climate change in the survey area.................................................................. 13
Exposure.............................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Sensitivity........................................................................................................................................................................... 16
System 1: Biodiversity...............................................................................................................................................................16
System 2: Hydrology..................................................................................................................................................................18

Water supply.................................................................................................................................................................. 19
Adaptative Capacity Index........................................................................................................................... 19
Calculation of socioeconomic variables......................................................................................20

Infrastructure...............................................................................................................................................................20
Environmental aspects...................................................................................................................................... 21
Calculation of the current adaptive capacity index...................................................... 21
Identification of vulnerability.................................................................................................................... 21
Main conclusions of the analysis made in ECR..................................................................22
Chapter 3: Guidelines for a regional strategy...................................27
Effects of climate change and anthropogenic
transformation of ecosystems................................................................................................................28
Possibilities and limitations for adaptation in the ECR............................................ 30
Institutional framework................................................................................................................................... 31
Guidelines for a regional strategy
for climate change adaptation in the ECR
(Colombia, Ecuador and Peru).................................................................................................................33
Operational recommendations for the
implementation of the strategy.............................................................................................................35
References....................................................................................................................................................................... 37

Introduction

T
he Eastern Cordillera Real (ECR) is one of the most biologically and
culturally diverse ecoregions in the whole of the Northern Andes,
and at the same time one of the most threatened from a multitude
of human induced pressures. From 2006 to 2009, WWF in Peru and Colom-
bia and Fundación Natura Ecuador developed a tri-national project in the
ECR funded by the European Union that aimed to improve regional coordi-
nation, maintain the integrity of natural ecosystems and promote sustain-
able livelihoods. The project targeted actions that could contribute to re-
duce major conservation threats, including climate change and the urgent
need to develop adaptation strategies. This work combined analysis and
assessment of the vulnerability of ecological and social systems to climate
change with a participatory process with local and national stakeholders

for the development of adaptation hydrological and socio-economic)
strategies. The analytical work pro- for the ECR demonstrate the need
vided the technical information and for actions oriented at maintaining
framework for the dialogue and de- the continued provision of ecosys-
velopment of local and regional ad- tem services as well as the biological
aptation plans. and cultural riches of the region. Pri-
This document is a translated ority adaptation measures include
summary of the original publication actions to develop and strengthen
resulting from this initiative: Cambio the capacity and the production
climático en un paisaje vivo: Vul- systems of the local communities
nerabilidad y adaptación en la Cor- and institutions, aiming to maintain
dillera Real Oriental de Colombia, and recover ecosystem resilience,
Ecuador y Perú (WWF y Fundación strengthen a regional policy frame-
Natura 2010). We have focused pri- work with considerations of vulner-
marily on presenting the method- ability and adaptation to climate
ological aspects of the vulnerability change and strengthen the capacity
analysis, providing information on to generate and disseminate infor-
Eastern Cordillera Real (ECR) to il- mation necessary to increase citi-
lustrate how we applied the Turner zen participation in decision making
II et al. (2003) three-pronged frame- processes.
work for understanding vulnerabil- WWF Colombia and the authors
ity of a system to environmental are deeply thankful to WWF UK for
change. The results of the combined their support in the production of
vulnerability analyses (biological, this document.

6 Climate change in a living landscape

Chapter

Determining vulnerability
of Andean ecosystems
1
to climate change:
who is vulnerable to what?1

1. Adapted from:

T
Naranjo, L.G. & C.
he annual number of climate-related disasters within the Andean F. Suárez. 2010.
Community of Nations between 2002 and 2006 doubled the figure Determinación de
la vulnerabilidad
reached between 1977 and 1981 (CAN 2008), a painful reminder of de ecosistemas
andinos al cambio
the fragility of mountain ecosystems. The increase in the frequency and climático: quién
intensity of extreme weather events in the tropical Andes leading to these es vulnerable a
qué? Pp. 17-24 En:
disasters has been widely documented, but the consequences of these phe- Naranjo, L.G. (Ed).
Cambio climático
nomena in the long term are still insufficiently understood. But despite the en un paisaje vivo:
shortage of information on the latter, it is clear the imperative to develop vulnerabilidad
y adaptación
climate change adaptation strategies at different scales aimed to maintain en la Cordillera
or even increase the resilience of ecosystems and local communities to Real Oriental de
Colombia, Ecua-
the impacts of climate change. A significant increase in temperature and dor y Perú. Cali:
Fundación Natura
changes in precipitation patterns in the tropical Andes will likely result in -WWF.

universal (Downing 2003), and sci-
entists from different disciplines
usually differ in their use of the
term (Adger et al. 2004, Füssel 2005,
2007).According to the third assess-
ment report of the Intergovernmen-
tal Panel on Climate Change (McCar-
thy et al. 2001), vulnerability is “the
degree to which a system is sus-
ceptible to, or unable to cope with
adverse effects of climate change,
changes in the distribution of spe- including climate variability and ex-
cies and ecosystems expected to tremes. Vulnerability is a function of
occur within the next century, and the character, magnitude, and rate
this will undoubtedly impair eco- of climate variation to which a sys-
system integrity and the provision tem is exposed, its sensitivity, and
of ecosystem services for local com- its adaptive capacity.” Following the
munities (clean and reliable water tradition of the literature on risk,
resources, biodiversity, and local cli- hazards, poverty and development,
mate) and for the region as a whole this definition interprets the final
(biodiversity, water and carbon) (Ur- outcomes of climatic events as the
rutia & Vuille 2009). result of a combination of hazards
Developing adaptation measures and the intrinsic vulnerability of a
to secure the biodiversity riches system (Downing & Pathwardan
and the well being of the inhabit- 2004).
ants of the tropical Andes for years The application of this defini-
to come requires understanding tion revolves around the answers
how vulnerable different systems to several questions (Kienberger
in the region are to the impacts of & Zeil 2005). First, it is necessary to
climate change. This poses multiple identify the subject of vulnerability
challenges since the complexity (who is vulnerable?) which, for a
of Andean biotic communities, the given area, can be a landscape, a lo-
variety of socio-economic systems cal community, or a component of
present throughout the region and local biodiversity. In recent literature
the differential response to climate on vulnerability to climate change,
variation from place to place, due the subject is usually referred to as
to the spatial heterogeneity of these a system.
mountains, impede a characteriza- The second question defines to
tion of vulnerability applicable to what is vulnerable the system of
the whole region. Consequently, the interest (its exposure); depending on
ECR assessment initiated with the the local manifestation of change, a
review of the basic conceptual is- system can be more likely to be af-
sues related to climate change. fected either directly and/or indi-
Vulnerability: The definition of rectly (a classic example is the expo-
the term “vulnerability” is far from sure of coastal settlements to rising


sea level). Therefore, the exposure tem of interest become vulnerable,
index is related with the influences which means to analyze the basic
or stimuli affecting a system, it cap- properties and processes of society,
tures both the weather events and economy, and policy, resulting in its
the climate patterns affecting the capacity to adapt to new conditions
system, as well as overarching fac- (its resilience).
tors such as changes in the systems Turner II et al. (2003) developed
caused by climate-related impacts. a three-pronged framework for
A third question addresses the understanding vulnerability of a
sensitivity of the system in terms of system to environmental change,
the specific intrinsic properties that which addresses these questions
determine the degree to which it (Fig. 2). Their model illustrates the
will respond to a change in climatic complex interactions involved in
conditions. Sensitive systems readily this kind of analysis and highlights
react to climate variation and there- the multiple factors that potentially
fore can be perceptibly affected by affect the vulnerability of a particu-
small climate changes. Understand- lar system in a given location. This
ing system sensitivity also requires framework avoids uncoupling hu-
understanding the thresholds after man and environmental conditions,
which they begin to respond to cli- allowing for the identification of
mate variables, of the degree of ad- linkages among the different vari-
justments the system can make and ables determining the exposure,
of the reversibility of the changes sensitivity and resilience of a sys-
undergone by the system. tem. This approach is particularly
And last, but not least, it is im- useful when dealing with stressors
portant to understand under what or threats of a compounding nature.
circumstances (when?) will the sys-

Threat of an Event

- Wealth (Economy)
Exposure Sensitivity
- Technology and Infrastructure
- Information, knowledge
and Skills
Potential Impacts Adaptive Capacity - Institutions
- Equity
- Social Capital

Vulnerability to CC - ...

Figure 1. Conceptual model of climate change vulnerability
included in the third report to IPCC (Ionescu et al., 2005).

Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru 9

Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity Elasticity

Components Humane
Individuals, households, Human / social capital
Response
classes, firms, states, (population trend, institutions, Impact
Existing
ecosystems economic structures) Loss of life,
programs,
economic
policies, production,
autonomous environmental
Environmental Conditions choices services
Features Natural assets/bio-physical attributes
Frequency, (soils, water, climate, minerals, Adjustment
magnitude, duration structure and ecosystem function) and adaptation
New programs,
policies and
autonomous
choices

Figure 2. An integrated conceptual framework to assess
vulnerability (adapted from Turner et al. 2003).

Adaptation reflects the capacity the social, political, economic and
of a system to respond to a change, cultural environment of the sys-
by using some of its properties to tems analyzed, because most of the
face external influences. Adapta- measures taken to maintain their
tion can be planned or autonomous. resiliency will depend on societal
Planned adaptation is a change responses. For instance, Schröeter
made anticipating climate varia- (2007) takes into account three ma-
tion, is an inner, strategic, conscious jor components of the adaptive ca-
effort to increase the capacity of pacity of a system to global change:
a system to face (or to avoid) the awareness, ability and action, which
negative consequences of climate are determined, respectively, by
change. Therefore, and following equality and knowledge, technol-
Aguilar (2007), the vulnerability will ogy and infrastructure, and flexibil-
increase as a function of the mag- ity and economic power. Both the
nitude of a climate-related hazard, components and their determinants
and will decrease as the resilience vary from place to place, and there-
and the adaptive capacity of the fore mapping socio-economic indi-
system are strengthened. Accord- cators at finer scales allow for an
ing to Turner II et al. (2003), one last interpretation of the human compo-
set of variables that is necessary to nent of the resilience of landscape
tackle for an integrated assessment units and ecosystems. Consequently
of vulnerability corresponds to cop- mapping socio-economic variables
ing, response, and the capacity of at this same level of resolution is
adjustment of the systems under also necessary to gain insights into
consideration. Given the accelerated the human conditions that make
rate of change of climate variables, a given system prone to suffer the
this is largely a matter of examining impacts of climate change. Popula-


tion density, wealth, education, eco- of plants and animals) and the
nomic structure, food systems and adaptive capacity as described
institutions are unevenly distributed above.
in the region, and different groups
and places within countries differ in Vulnerability of Andean
their ability to cope with climate re- ecosystems to climate
lated impacts (Olmos 2001, Aguilar change
2007, Downing & Ziervogel 2005).
Following this conceptual frame- In terms of exposure, temperature
work, a protocol to assess vulner- has increased by 0.1oC per decade
ability to climate change at the since 1939 at the regional scale, and
sub-regional and local level in the the rate of warming has tripled over
Tropical Andes would involve at the last 25 years (Vuille & Bradley
least seven steps: 2000). Changes in precipitation are
1. Choosing the system of interest less consistent, but there is evidence
and the components that are of areas presenting either a signifi-
more likely affected by climate cant increase or decrease of annual
change. rainfall (Urrutia & Vuille 2009). The
2. Obtaining historic meteorologi- frequency of extreme weather
cal and hydrological data sets events has also increased through-
pertaining to the scale of analy- out (IPCC 2007). Despite these evi-
sis. dences, available information of
3. Gathering secondary informa- current climate is still at a broad
tion on the spatial distribution scale, and the process of downscal-
of biophysical information of ing it for specific sectors scale has
interest (e.g. vegetation cover, only recently begun. However, it is
species ranges, distribution of evident that climate change at the
crops and other rural produc- regional level is already affecting a
tion systems, etc.) wide range of subjects, from popu-
4. Downscaling regional models lations and species to entire ecosys-
of future climate. tems and landscapes, from individ-
5. Modeling expected distribution ual households to communities, and
of variables of interest under from firms to economic sectors.
different climate change sce- The sensitivity of all these sub-
narios. jects to climate change stems from
6. Map the socio-economic sensi- the most prominent ecological fea-
tivity and the adaptive capacity ture of the Tropical Andes, that is,
of the area of interest to major the spatial heterogeneity of these
disturbances of their environ- mountains (see for example, WWF
ments. 2001). Ecosystem replacement along
7. Estimate a vulnerability index both altitudinal and latitudinal gra-
combining the resulting over- dients is paramount throughout the
lays of ecological sensitivity (e.g. region, and results in complex mo-
expected shifts of life zones, saics composed of relatively small
ecosystems and/or distribution landscape units that, because of


their size, can be severely affected and amount of runoff, affecting wa-
by climate change and extreme ter resource availability and hydro-
weather events. For this reason, power (Kundzewitz 2007). Changes
modeling the spatial distribution of in rainfall timing and intensity have
life zones, ecosystems, hydrological resulted in increased frequency, in-
resources and species at a finer scale tensity and scope of droughts or
using downscaled climate variables floods, with the resulting losses of
is a necessity if one wants to under- agricultural crops and human lives.
stand how sensitive a given eco- This makes it necessary to carry out
logical or socio-economic system is regional and local assessments of
from a biophysical perspective. ecosystem services in relation to cli-
Resilience. As a whole, Andean mate variables, as the vulnerability
socio-economic systems are partic- of socio-economic systems will be
ularly sensitive given the high levels largely determined by the availabil-
of poverty in the region, as poverty ity of the resource base upon which
limits the adaptive capabilities of they depend.
an area (Watson et al. 1998), and as Although the impacts of regional
Ribot (1996) pointed out, inequality and local climate change on specific
and marginalization are important components of ecological systems
determinants of vulnerability. are still poorly understood, shifts
All the provinces of the Ande- in species distribution and both re-
an countries suffered at least one duction and/or increase of natural
hydro-meteorological event be- ecosystems are likely to result. In-
tween 1970 and 2007 (CAN 2008), creasing temperatures drive the up-
and the effects of such events as ward migration of plant communi-
well as of the regional trends of cli- ties which may drive changes in the
mate change are manifold. Increas- ranges of many animal and plant
ing temperature has caused the ac- species adapted to specific habitats
celeration in the loss of snow caps that occupy a narrow range along
and glaciers throughout the region altitudinal and latitudinal climatic
(IPCC 2007), which in turn has led gradients (Epstein et al. 1998, Rel-
to changes in the seasonal pattern man et al. 2008).


Chapter

Vulnerability analysis methodology
for the Eastern Cordillera Real2
2

2. Adapted from:
Area of study Hernández, O.L.,
C.F. Suárez & L.G.

T
G. Naranjo. 2010.
he Eastern Cordillera Real (ECR) extends from the eastern slopes of Vulnerabilidad al
the Colombian Massif to the Abra de Porculla 6° S in Peru. This region Cambio Climático
en la Cordillera
occupies 109,400 km2 and includes the mountains of the Amazon Real Orien-
tal (Colombia,
watershed between a spot elevation of 300 m and the watershed to the Pa- Ecuador y Perú).
cific slope. The rugged topography of the range leads to a complex network Pp. 25-64 En:
Naranjo, L.G. (Ed).
of rivers, which corresponds to seven large basins (Table 1, Figure 3). Cambio climático
en un paisaje vivo:
vulnerabilidad
Evidence of climate change in the survey area y adaptación
en la Cordillera
Real Oriental de
Changes are showing in the Andean region both in temperature and pre- Colombia, Ecua-
dor y Perú. Cali:
cipitation levels and frequency of extreme events, especially more intense Fundación Natura
rainfall and strong and short winds (Soto, 2008). High mountain ecosystems -WWF.

Table 1. Extension of the watersheds in the study area.

Watershed Area (Km2) Watershed Area (Km2)
Caqueta 7,616.90 Santiago 14,058.91
Putumayo 19,802.31 Zamora/Cenepa 23,919.82
Napo 9,837.05 Marañon 15,543.72
Pastaza 1,623.65 TOTAL 109,401.72

Colombia

Caqueta

Putumayo

Napo
Ecuador

Pastaza

Santiago
Eastern Cordillera Real
International boundries

High watersheds
Caqueta
Zamora/Cenepa
Marañon
Napo
Pastaza
Putumayo
Santiago

Marañon Zamora/Cenepa
Peru

0 25 50 100 150
Kilometers

Figure 3. Study area and upper watershed.


as the glaciers of Colombia, Ecuador dard deviation of monthly data is
and Peru have had unprecedented clear for the past three decades,
declines in recent decades and most which means an increase of the dif-
of them would be destined to dis- ference in the amount of rainfall be-
appear in a period of less than 30 tween the dry and wet months.
years. According to the first national A climate change vulnerability
communication on climate change assessment is important to respond
in Colombia (Ideam, 2001), it is con- to future risks. For our evaluation
firmed that during the period from of the Eastern Cordillera Real we
1961 to 1990 the average air tempera- have followed, in general terms, the
ture in Colombia increased at a rate points outlined in the protocol pro-
of 0.1 to 0.2°C per decade, while the posed in the previous section from
annual rainfall experienced chang- the conceptual model integrated
es between -4% and +6% in differ- Turner II et al. (2003), considering
ent regions. In Ecuador, the mea- the sensitivity systems and criteria
surement of changes in average defined by Intergovernmental Panel
temperature shows an increasing on Climate Change (IPCC) (Table 2).
trend of 1.5° Cover the period from
1930 to 1993, with higher evidence of Exposure
this change in the inter-Andean re-
For our analysis of exposure, we
gion compared to the coastal region
used the following variables: eco-
(National Committee on Climate,
systems, species and water resourc-
2001). The trend in rainfall is very
es, as well as changing weather con-
irregular, with a greater inclination
ditions which these attributes will
to decline. Finally, in Peru in the last
face under future climate scenarios.
50 years there has been an increase
These scenarios were generated by
in the maximum temperature of
the Ministry of Environment of Ec-
about 1.3°C (0.24°C per decade) and a
uador (MAE, 2008) through the re-
general decrease in precipitation of
gional circulation model Precis, a re-
3% (National Environmental Council,
gional modeling system developed
2001). Locally, there is a similar trend
by the Hadley Centre in England,
of temperature increase between
using the ECHAM4 model for the
1989 and 2005.
A2 and B2 scenarios. We consider
The region of the ECR has en-
ECHAM4 model changes in temper-
dured a series of climatic anomalies
ature, precipitation and humidity
with unusual intensity and frequen-
cy in the historical record of our
time. Storms, floods and landslides, Table 2. Elements of analysis of vulnerability
mainly related to events of the El to climate change from the IPCC definition.
Niño weather phenomenon, have System Sensitivity Criteria
hit the three countries thereby pro- Climatic niche of
Change in the assembly of the
ducing local economic losses as well species of birds
species analyzed
as loss of human lives. According to Biodiversity and plants

an analysis of the rainfall recorded Life Zones
Change in the distribution of
life zones
in the meteorological stations of the
ECR, a slight increase in the stan- Hydrology Water balance Change in runoff


and the scenarios A2 and B2 for the category in order to calculate the
decades of 2030 and 2050. sensitivity.
In the case of species, we have As proxies of ecosystems we
assumed the exposure variables took Holdridge’s (1967) life zones
used by Cuesta et al. (2006), ob- as a starting point for our analysis.
tained from the TYN SC 2.0 database Under this system, certain groups
(Mitchell et al., 2004), HadCM3 mod- of ecosystems or plant associations
el, A2 and B2 scenarios for decade of correspond to ranges of tempera-
2050. Assuming that the A2 and B2 ture, precipitation and humidity, so
scenarios are similar to the reality that divisions of these balanced cli-
of developing countries, i.e. a steady matic parameters can be defined in
growth of its population and frag- order to group them into life zones.
mented development in technology, The Holdridge life zones are a model
and also taking into account differ- of potential areas, as the current and
ences in terms of emissions (Stage projected areas affected are not tak-
A2 - pessimistic and B2 -optimistic), en into account.
we performed analysis in relation to Using the Bioclim layer of tem-
these estimates. However, it should perature and precipitation (Hijmans
be noted that these scenarios can- et al., 2005) we modeled the Hold-
not be considered forecasts as they ridge life zones for the current pe-
have many uncertainties. riod and for the scenarios A2 and
B2 of climate change. In order to
Sensitivity do so, we averaged the estimated
values the years 2021-2030 and
for
We analyzed, for each system,
the years 2051-2060 and applied the
its response to climate change sce-
classification of Holdridge adjusted
narios. Thus, we took into account
to the study area (Table 3).
the change in the distribution of life
The sensitivity to climate change
zones, the change in species assem-
of a region in terms of life zones is
blage as an effect of temperature
given by the potential change in
change and humidity change in
their geographical distribution. Ar-
runoff (sensitivity criteria for eco-
eas with drastic changes in climate
systems, species and water resourc-
variables represent potential chang-
es) in response to projected changes
es in life zones, which in turn repre-
in temperature, precipitation and
sent areas with varying degrees of
humidity.
sensitivity. To select areas of great-
est change in the ECR, we made a
System 1: Biodiversity
rough map which compares the life
The overall sensitivity for bio- zones in the year 2030 and the pres-
diversity is the product of the sum ent. We additionally did the same
of the areas which are sensitive for analysis comparing the life zones in
species and areas which are sensi- 2050 and 2030 to locate areas with
tive for life zones in each scenario differences attributable to the ef-
(A2 and B2). These areas were re- fects of climate change in each sce-
classified by map algebra into one nario.


Table 3. Adjustment ranges for the calculation of life zones.
Upper Humidity provinces
Elevation Temperature Precipitation
Range (Ombrothermal Index - Io)
1 0 – 1100 Basal < 1.5 < 62.5 < 0.1 Ultra – hyper - arid

2 1100 – 2100 Sub - Andean 1.5 – 3 62.5 – 125 0.1 – 0.3 Hyper - arid

3 2100 – 3200 Andean 3 – 12 125 – 250 0.3 – 1 Arid

4 >3200 Paramo 12 – 24 250 – 500 1–2 Semiarid

5 > 24 500 – 1000 2 – 3.6 Dry

6 1000 – 2000 3.6 – 6 Subhumid

7 2000 – 4000 6 – 12 Wet

8 4000 – 8000 12 – 24 Hyper humid

9 > 24 Ultra – hyper –humid

On the other hand, the sensitiv- species are endemic and some are in
ity of birds and plants to climate some category of threat.
change was assumed as the poten- From these models, we evaluat-
tial degree of response in their geo- ed the potential impact of climate
graphical distribution. Thus, model- change by analyzing the spatial
ing of the climate niches of species patterns of change in relation to
allowed to determine areas which the different climate scenarios, ac-
are more sensitive than others, from cording to Thuiller et al. (2005) and
the estimated number of species Broennimann et al. (2006). To do
that could change their distribution this, we took the spatial patterns of
in response to climate change. species generated by Cuesta et al.
For the analysis of the Eastern (2006) and quantified the number
Cordillera Real we took as surro- and percentage of species absent
gates for biodiversity the Maxent (loss) or new (gain) for each pixel in
modeling (Phillips et al., 2006)3 made future climatic conditions. Thus, we
by Cuesta et al. (2006) about the estimated the turnover rate of the
expected distribution for the year species under the assumption that
2050 and the current distribution of a species can reach any area with
42 species of birds and 47 species of suitable environmental conditions
vascular plants in the northern An- (universal dispersion) and the cur-
des to the A2 and B2 scenarios of cli- rent vegetation cover is maintained
mate change of the HadCM3. Several over time, using the formula:
of these species have characteristics
(G + L)
that make them good indicators of T= x100 [1]
(SR+G)
diversity. Their time and mode of
radiation is related to the uplift of
the Andes and the Pleistocene cli- Where:
matic changes, their distribution T: volume of species;
patterns have a high replacement G: gain of species; 3. It is one of the
level throughout the environmental L: loss of species; global climate
models of regula-
gradients within the region, several SR: species richness present. tion.


A value of 0 indicates that the as- Engineering Handbook (2004) and
semblage of species does not change its application, using tools of Geo-
(i.e., no loss or gain of species), while graphic Information Systems (GIS)
100 indicates that the assemblage devised by Castillo et al. (2007).This
of species is completely different tool relates precipitation with hy-
in the new conditions. According to drological soil complex and prior
the change in the assembly (T) of moisture condition to establish the
species sensitivity thresholds were actual direct runoff. To estimate
proposed, which were divided into future supply, similar conditions of
four ranges (using quintiles) for both soil and vegetation cover over the
birds and to plants in each scenario. current state are assumed,and the
To select the most sensitive sites for differences of precipitation are es-
each group we identified the high- tablished according to the climate
est quintiles, then added the most change scenarios (ECHAM4 model,
sensitive areas for each group of A2 and B2, MAE, 2008), as change
species in each scenario. factor in water balance (Figure 4).
Runoff (Pe)4 is the amount of wa-
System 2: Hydrology ter after a rain, which flows, drains
Water resources sensitivity is or trickles over the soil surface. The
given by the proportional change runoff flows into streams, which
(%) in todays total water supply increase their volume with water
compared to periods 2030 and 2050, coming from faraway places and
as expressed in formula 2: decrease soon after the rain ends.
The excess water from the rains
Qr that fails to enter the soil flows over
Sensitivity = x100 [2] the surface of the earth, depend-
Current Q ing on various factors such as land
use, vegetation cover, management
Where: practices, hydrologic soil group and
Qr is the reference water supply precipitation. Runoff is calculated as:
projected by 2030 and 2050, ex-
pressed in flow m3/sec.
Qcurrent is the current Water supply (Pi - 0.2 S)2
Pe = [3]
flow, expressed in m3/sec. (Pi + 0.8 S)

4. The value of Methodologically, in order to es-
precipitation for Where:
the formula Pe timate the current and future water Pe: Runoff in mm;
is daily, however
this balance is to supply we used the proposal made Pi: daily rainfall in mm;
have multi-year by the Soil Conservation Service S: Maximum retention in the water-
average monthly
precipitation. (SCS, 1964) included in the National shed in mm.


Hydrological Precipitation Expected
Rainfall per annum
Soil Complex (climate change scenarios)

Current Runoff Future Runoff

Current Water Supply Current Water Supply

Sensitivity
(% change)

Figure 4. Model for sensitivity of water resources.

Equation 4 has a limitation that is Where
the estimation of S, but it generally And is the surface runoff in mm;
allows a good approximation of Q to Q is the total monthly flow m3/sec;
watersheds by land use. The value T is the number of seconds in a
of S is equal to the shelf capacity of month;
the soil. S was defined according to A is the area of the basin regarding
the Curve Number (CN), described the hydrometric station.
below according to:

Q = Y x A x 10 [6]
3

2540 T
S= - 25.4 [4]
CN
Adaptative Capacity Index
Adaptability refers to the ability
Water supply to evolve and adapt to a changing
Taking into account the expres- environment. Natural and human
sion of runoff, expressed in terms systems can interact to overcome
of water depth in millimeters, Q is the changes. This adaptation is
cleared, which determines the sur- strengthened by the potential of
face water supply for each period available resources in a given area
of aggregation, which is monthly in to generate new processes or im-
this case. plement new techniques (Aguilar,
2007; Sietchiping, 2006). Similarly,
QxT the IPCC (2007) states that “The
Y= [5]
A x 103 ability to adapt is dynamic and is
influenced by the productive base
of society, in particular, the assets


of natural and manmade capital, rural population (also defined as
networks and social benefits, hu- the rest) of the most recent census
man capital and institutions, gover- in each country: 2005 for the Co-
nance, national income, health and lombian municipalities, 2001 for the
technology. It is also influenced by a cantons in Ecuador and 2005 for
variety of climatic and non-climatic the provinces in Peru (respectively,
stress factors, as well as develop- Dane5 2005, INEC6 2001, INEI7 2005).
ment policies”. Data of Unsatisfied Basic Needs
Under this premise, and with (NBI) for Ecuador was provided by
reference to the IPCC Technical Pa- TNC and for Peru information was
per V (2002), on climate change and taken from the Poverty Map of 1996.
biodiversity, which states that the Data were standardized or normal-
ability of countries to implement ized from 0 to 100 to make the cal-
adaptation activities is related to culations socioeconomic index (ISE),
the consideration of economic, so- which is based on the following rela-
cial and environmental aspects, we tionship for calculation:
have developed the following indi-
cators that continue the previous Dp+In+Te+An+NBI
guidelines. Thus, a true picture is ISE = [7]
portrayed of the conditions of ad-
5
aptation in the ECR (Figure 5).
Where:
5. Dane: National
Bureau of Statis- ISE, is the socioeconomic index;
tics of Colombia. Calculation of Dp, is the population density;
6. NICE: National
Institute of Statis-
socioeconomic variables In, the number of infants and chil-
tics and Censuses
of Ecuador. Socioeconomic variables are dren given by the population
7. INEI: National measured by the political-adminis- under 10 years;
Institute of Statis-
tics and Informat- trative divisions of each country in Te, is the number of older adults or
ics of Peru. Level 3. We used information from seniors over 65 years;
An, is the number of people who
are illiterate;
Socioeconomic Infrastructure Environmental NBI, is the index of unsatisfied basic
needs.
Population Accessibility Percentage
Density Index intervened
• Roads Infrastructure
Child • Slopes Percentage
population • Villages not intervened Infrastructure is a factor which,
• Vegetation Cover the same as others, can have sev-
Elderly eral interpretations, depending on
Population the perspective from which it is an-
alyzed, because it can help or hin-
Illiteracy
der the implementation of activities
addressing the reduction of vulner-
UBN – Unsatisfied
Basic Needs ability of the systems analyzed. The
existence of a road or an area easily
Figure 5. Themes and variables used in the current
adaptation capacity of the ECR.


accessible, therefore, could facilitate in relation to the extension of
the intervention and subsequent each administrative unit located
environmental degradation, thus geographically.
making it an element that restricts
the ability of adaptation (negative Calculation of the current
element). Moreover, other factors adaptive capacity index
must be included in this analysis,
After doing the analysis descri-
such as the existence and operation
bed above, we averaged the stan-
of monitoring systems in biodiver-
dardized values of the three varia-

sity, or early warning systems, that
bles (socio-economic, infrastructure
ideally take into account indicators
and environmental) for the rate of
which give an insight into the sensi-
current capacity of the ECR, accor-
tivity and changes related to climat-
ding to equation 8.
ic variables. These would be items
that promote adaptation capacity
(positive). However, these initiatives ISE+II+IA
are null and do not have adequate ICA = [8]
3
information; this is why they were
not taken into account in the end.
Therefore we have proposed an ac- Identification
cessibility index for assessing ad- of vulnerability
aptation capacity in the context of The grouping of sensitivity with
infrastructure. the index of adaptive capacity, pro-
vides scenarios that allow a view of
Environmental aspects vulnerability in the Eastern Cordille-
We selected two indicators of the ra Real (Table 4). Thus, we have de-
implications of human activities on termined four scenarios of vulner-
natural resources. When interpreted ability according to the proposal of
in the context of adaptation capac- Downing (2003), taking into account
ity, they represent a quantitative ap- the degree of risk / climate impacts,
proximation of how much human previously classified in high and
beings can do for or against biodi- low; adaptive capacity classified
versity and environmental services. as High, Medium and Low; and the
identification of the high-risk group
• Percentage intervened, given as
as vulnerable communities.
the extent of transformed eco-
systems in relation to a particu-
lar area, which in this case are Table 4. Grouping climatic risks and adaptive capacity.
the political-administrative divi- Adaptation Capacity
sions. Risks Low Medium High
• Percentage unprotected, defined Areas of high Areas of medium Areas of low
High
as the degree to which an ad- vulnerability vulnerability vulnerability

ministrative unit does not have Low
High residual
Low residual risk Sustainability
risks
conservation areas. It is reflected


Main conclusions of the • The modeling of precipitation
analysis made in ECR shows a slight trend to increase
in the ECR, but with significant
Due to limitations in available
local variations from -20 to 60%
data and analysis procedures, the
and considerable variations
results of the analysis presented
from year to year.
have a considerable margin of un-
• The only evident trend in precip-
certainty, so the interpretations that
itation change is the continued
emerge from such analysis should
increase for the upper basin of
be taken as preliminary. However,
the Pastaza River in Ecuador.
in accordance with the precaution-
ary principle, it is urgent to initiate • The greatest variation in the
development of adaptation mea- distribution of life zones of the
sures for the most sensitive ar- ECR would be held in the Up-
eas, with less adaptive capacity or per Pastaza River in Ecuador.
which are more vulnerable, so they The upper reaches of the rivers
can respond to the new challenges Napo and Caqueta have similar
posed by the current trends in cli- trends which are also close to
mate change. In order to guide the 50% change in the extent of the
participatory construction of local, life zones.
national and regional adaptation to • Nine life zones may increase
the ECR, the main conclusions of their extension under the A2
this analysis are presented below: scenario and 10 under the B2
• A gradual increase in the aver- scenario by 2030, while nine
age monthly temperature in the others would decrease by 2050
ECR of up to 20C is expected for under the A2 scenario and eight
the year 2099. under the B2 scenario (Table 5,
Fig 6).


• Desert scrubs and dry forests are tiago / Cenepa and Marañon
the only life zones which tend to against the A2 and the Napo
increase surface for both scenar- and Caqueta basins reach their
ios in the two periods considered. highest values sensitivity in
of
Glaciers, the very humid Andean B2 scenario.
forest and the Andean rainforest • Estimation of surface water
would tend to decrease under supply revealed that the San-
both climate change scenarios. tiago river basin (upstream of
• Of the fifteen life zones rep- the Marañon River) is the East-
resented in the existing pro- ern Cordillera Real’s sub – basin
tected areas in the ECR, seven with lowest water levels. The
increased in area over 100% and basins of the rivers Zamora and
another five areas have de- Putumayo, at Bomboiza and An-
creased in comparatively lower gosturas, are the stations that
proportions against the two cli- have the highest flows.
mate change scenarios. • The expected variations in river
• The values expected change
of flows over the ECR for the years
in species assemblages in the 2030 and 2060 are directly re-
ECR reaches the highest values lated to the variation in rainfall.
in the upper basins of the Napo • The sensitivity of the sub – ba-
and Pastaza rivers for the two sins shows different trends
climate change scenarios. in the two scenarios. Some of
• Levels of sensitivity of the spe- them are positive and some
cies considered surely underes- negative.
timate the impact the variations • Improved relations of expected
on the composition and struc- water yield in liters / sec / km2
ture of biotic communities of can be evidenced in the basins
the ECR could have, since the as- of the Caqueta, Putumayo and
sumption of a specific response Zamora rivers. In general, no
to changes in the individual cli- significant changes are found
matic niche of the species does between the two periods evalu-
not take into account the con- ated, except for the basins of
sequences which the change an Pastaza and Santiago, where
organism’s distribution could yields improved (Figure 7).
have on the populations of those • The upper basins of the Caqueta,
species with which it interacts. Putumayo, Pastaza and Mara-
• The highest values biodiver-
of ñon rivers are moderately vul-
sity sensitivity of the system nerable to the two scenarios (A2
correspond to the Pastaza basin and B2), while those of the Napo
in both scenarios. Much more Zamora / Cenepa, Santiago and
marked changes occur in the Marañon are more vulnerable to
basins of the Putumayo, San- the first of these two scenarios
(Figure 6).


Table 5. List of sensitive and vulnerable sites
in the ECR for the Biodiversity System.

Watershed Scenario A2 Scenario B2
1. PuraceCorridor - Guacharos and 1. PuraceCorridor - Guacharos and
Serrania de los Churumbelos Serrania de los Churumbelos
(Municipalities of San Agustin, (municipalities of San Agustin,
Caqueta Santa Rosa and Piamonte) Santa Rosa and Piamonte)
2. Doña Juana - CascabelVolcanic 2. Doña Juana-CascabelVolcanic
Complex (municipalities of Santa Complex (municipalities of Santa
Rosa and San Francisco) Rosa and San Francisco)

1. Source of the Putumayo river
1. Source of the Putumayo River
(municipalities of Sibundoy,
(municipalities Sibundoy, Colon,
Colon, Santiago, north of
Santiago, north of Villagarzon)
Putumayo Villagarzon)
2. Guamuez Basin (southern Pasto
2. Guamuez Basin (southern Pasto
and northern municipality of
and northern municipality of
Orito)
Orito)

1. Southwest Antisana Ecological
Reserve (western Canton
1. Central part of the Tena Canton
Archidona)
Napo 2. Santa Clara, Arajuno Cantons
2. Central part of the Tena Canton
3. High part of Loreto
3. Santa Clara, Arajuno Cantons
4. High part of Loreto

1. Upperbasin of the Pastaza
1. Upper basin of the Pastaza (cantons Latacunga, Saquisilí,
(cantons Latacunga, Saquisilí, Pujilí and Salcedo, Ambato and
Pujilí and Salcedo) San Pedro de Pelileo, Guano,
Pastaza
2. Upper and middle parts of Riobamba, ColtaGuamote)
Canton Pastaza 2. Upper and middle parts of
3. Canton Huamboya Canton Pastaza
3. Canton Huamboya

1. Southwest Morona canton (in the 1. Southwest Morona canton (in the
Santiago PN Sangay) PN Sangay)
2. Logroño Canton 2. Logroño Canton

1. Watershed Media (Limón
1. Watershed Media (LemonIndanza,
Indanza, San Juan Bosco,
San Juan Bosco, Gualaquiza, El
Gualaquiza, El Pangui,
Pangui, Yantzazaand Centinela
Zamora / Cenepa Yantzazaand Centinela del
del Condor)
Condor)
2. Middle basin - lower (province of
2. Middle basin - lower (province of
Condorcanqui)
Condorcanqui)

1. National Shrine Tabaconas 1. National Shrine Tabaconas
- Namballe; San Ignacio and - Namballe; San Ignacio and
Marañon
Huancabamba province Huancabamba province
2. Bagua Province 2. Bagua Province


Scenario B2

Very high
High
Medium
Very low
Low
Scenario A2

Vulnerability
Minor

Major
Adaptation capacity
Sensible sites for biodiversity

Scenario B2
Scenario A2

Figure 6. Vulnerability to climate change of the major watersheds of the Eastern Cordillera Real.


Sensible sites for hydric resources

26
Caquetá
Putumayo

Caquetá Caquetá
Napo
Adaptation capacity Putumayo Putumayo
Pastaza

Climate change in a living landscape
Santiago Caquetá Napo Napo

Zamora/Cenepa Putumayo

High negative
Low negative Pastaza Pastaza
Low positive Napo
Marañón Medium positive
High positive
Very high positive
Santiago Santiago
Scenario A2 - 2050 Pastaza

Santiago
Zamora/Cenepa Zamora/Cenepa
Caquetá
Putumayo
Zamora/Cenepa
Marañón Marañón
Napo
Minor

Marañón
Pastaza Major Scenario A2 Scenario B2

Santiago

Figure 7. Vulnerable areas for the water sector in the Eastern Cordillera Real.
Very low High
Zamora/Cenepa Vulnerability Medium
Low Very high
High negative
Low negative
Marañón Low positive
Medium positive
High positive
Very high positive

Scenario B2 - 2050

Chapter

Guidelines for a
regional strategy 3

T
he assessment of vulnerability to climate change is important to re-
spond to future risks. In the case of the Eastern Cordillera Real (ECR)
there are serious reasons for concern (see conclusions chart of the
analysis).For this reason, and in order to help develop a regional strategy to
address at different scales the multiple threats arising from climate change
in the ECR, in this section we propose a set of guidelines derived from a
combination of exercises and workshops held under the project “A Living
Landscape.” We hope that the guidelines outlined here will form the basis
for a collegiate effort that results in regional integration around the con-
servation and sustainable development of the ecosystems of the Eastern
Cordillera Real, regarding the challenges and threats they face in relation to
the global climate change.

2) its associated impacts (massive
changes in the distribution of eco-
systems and species, increased loss
of agricultural crops), 3) the sensitiv-
ity resulting from cultural factors
and practices (extensive grazing, in-
adequate and illegal exploitation of
timber and non - timber forest prod-
ucts, industrial expansion of forest
and agricultural plantations, un-
sustainable systems of small-scale
production and the development of
mega infrastructure projects), and 4)
Effects of climate change sociocultural response and capabil-
ity that emerge from existing insti-
and anthropogenic
tutional policy frameworks and the
transformation of level of public awareness about en-
ecosystems vironmental vulnerability.
The impacts of climate change The relative importance of
on the mountain ecosystems of the threats varies between basins and
ECR cannot be interpreted if we do between larger units of landscape
not sufficiently examine their rela- within each basin. However, one
tionships with the effects resulting way to examine them according to
from human activities. The ecologi- their priority at regional level is to
cal integrity of mountain ecosys- assign to each threat ordinal score
tems in the ECR is altered by the according to three criteria: extent,
change of hydro-meteorological severity and urgency. The results
regimes, but these effects are en- of an analysis of this nature (Table
hanced in many cases by patterns 6) identify the expansion of cattle
of land use (Fig. 8). ranching, inappropriate and illegal
In this model, it is clear that the exploitation of forest products and
threats arising from exposure of the timber and unsustainable produc-
landscape units to climate change tion systems on a small scale as the
at a regional scale are also other most urgent threats to be addressed
factors resulting from anthropo- to maintain the resilience of ecosys-
genic processes in which multiple tems in the watersheds to climate
stakeholders play a role. The vul- change. For this reason, albeit we
nerability of watersheds, within the cannot significantly change the ex-
meaning of IPCC (2008), is then the posure of an ecosystem to climate
local expression of the combinato- change and its “natural” sensitivity,
rial of: 1) exposure to climate change we can act on those variables that
in purely biophysical terms (melting directly depend on our individual
glaciers, increased frequency and and collective decisions. Production
intensity of rainfall and drought); systems, capacity building, public


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