12-mayo-2015 | Presentación de Ramón Xifré y Jordi Salvador en la exposición del avance de resultados del documento “Las reformas económicas del futuro: un nuevo modelo de crecimiento para España”, organizado por la Fundación Alternativas.

1. Las reformas del futuro: un nuevo
modelo productivo para España
Ramon Xifré
ESCI–Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Public-Private Sector Research Center, IESE Business School
ramon.xifre@esci.upf.edu
Jordi Salvador
Public-Private Sector Research Center, IESE Business School
jsalvadors@gmail.com
Madrid. 12 de mayo 2016. Fundación Alternativas.
1

2. Guión
1. La recuperación: ¿cómo se está recuperando
España de la crisis?
2. Las reformas adoptadas en el pasado: ¿cómo
han determinado la recuperación?
3. Las reformas del futuro:
• Revisión de propuestas recientes para España y
de contribuciones de fondo
• Alternativas para un modelo de crecimiento más
sostenible e inclusivo
2

3. 1. La recuperación
3

4. 1. La recuperación
i. Modelo de crecimiento
ii. Mercado laboral
iii. Dinámica empresarial
iv. Devaluación interna
4

5. 1. Recuperación. Modelo de crecimiento - I
Crecimiento del PIB, QoQ Saldo Balanza Cuenta Corriente %PIB
• Estabilización de finanzas públicas
• Recapitalización y reforma del sistema financiero
5

6. 1. Recuperación. Modelo de crecimiento - II
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
EU28 EU15 Spain
Contribución Dda. Doméstica y Exterior al PIB
Saldo comercial Energético / No energ. % PIB
Saldo comercial como % PIB
Gasto total en I+D como % PIB
6

7. 1. Recuperación. Mercado Laboral
Table 2. Unemployment variation in Spain. Thousands.
2008-Q2 2010-Q3 2012-Q3 2008-Q2
2010-Q3 2012-Q3 2015-Q3 2015-Q3
Total -1801.0 -1083.4 290.2 -2,571.3
Employers and self-employed -496.0 -24.4 61.7 -510.1
Employees w. permanent c. -182.6 -672.9 -232.6 -867.5
Employees w. temporary c. -1122.3 -386.1 461.2 -1,193.7
Source. INE.
Tasa de paro (%) y Población activa (M) Parados según duración de desempleo (M y %)
7

8. 1. Recuperación. Dinámica empresarial.
Altas y Bajas de empresas Altas netas de empresas por person. jurídica
8

9. 1. Recuperación. Devaluación interna (REER Ecfin)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain
TCER según CLU, total economía
TCER según deflactor exportaciones
TCER según CLU, manufacturas
TCER según deflactor del PIB
9

10. 2. Las reformas del pasado
Proyecto www.SpanishReforms.com
10

11. EC OECD IMF L14/2011 RD4/2013 L14/2013 OL8/2013 L22/2014 L5/2015 RD1067/2015 L25/2015 L30/2015
1.1 R+D and the knowledge society x
1.1.1 Tax incentives Incentives R&D x x
1.1.2 Public R + D
State Research Agency, incentives,
mobility
x x x x
1.1.3 Public – private
cooperation
Knowledge transfer x x
1.2 Internationalization
1.2.1 Financing
Access to finance SME, enhance non-
bank financing, concentrate support
schemes
x x x x
1.2.2 Barriers to growth
Eliminating possible policies and
regulations barriers, labour
regulations, addressing thresholds on
firm size in the tax code
x x x x
1.2.3 Linkages Networks SME & MNF x x x
1.3 Enterpreneurship
1.3.1 Ease of firms creations
One-stop-shop, Ease business start-
ups, one-in one-out principle
x x x x
1.3.2 Financing
Insolvency regime, limiting personal
liability, fresh start x x x x
1.4 Education
1.4.1 Primary & secondary
education
Early school leaving, teachers
need specific training, increase
quality
x x
1.4.2 Vocational & Education
training
Cooperation with employers,
reduce skills mismatches
x x x
1.4.3 Tertiary Education
Stronger cooperation between
universities and the business
sector , improve access to grants,
specialization.
x x
1. GROWTH AND COMPETITIVENESS
Recommendations Reforms
11
1. Modelo de crecimiento y competitividad

12. 1. Legislación
Law 14/2011 New Law of Science, Technology and Innovation. New Agency.
Royal Decree 4/2013 on Entrepreneurship and Job Creation. Drastic reduction in the amount of social contributions
(50€/m).
Law 14/2013 on Entrepreneurship and Internationalization. Special VAT regime, R&D tax subsidies, ICEX, new legal
statue for entrepreneurs, tax exemption.
Organic Law 8-2013 on Education (LOMCE). Early tests on school performance, increases the flexibility of the system ,
external evaluation, centralization.
Law 22/2014 on Venture Capital Entities; other closed-ended collective investment schemes and their management
companies.
Law 5/2015 to support firm’s financing. Enhance alternative channels for financing companies (crowdfounding), other
than the traditional banking system.
Royal Decree 1067/2015 establishing the State Agency research and approving its Statute.
Law 25/2015, of July 28, 2015, on the second chance mechanism, reducing the financial burden and other measures
of a social naturen (RDL1/2015)
Law 30/2015, regulation of the System of Vocational Education.
12

13. EC OECD IMF L4/2013 L3/2013 L20/2013 L24/2013 RDL4/2014 RDL8/2014 L11/2014 L17/2014 RDL1/2015 L9/2015
2.1 Competition enforcement
2.1.1 Regulation Agency Autonomy & independence CNMC x x
2.2 Regulation of product and service markets
2.2.1 Services markets
Rental market rebalancing tax
incentives , arbitration bodies
x x x
2.2.2 Utilities (electricity,
gas, oil & water)
Competition, interconnection, tariff
deficit, transparency, oil distribution
x x x x
2.2.3 Train, airport and
ports
Increase competition in ports,
freight and passenger rail,
maritime, stevedore activities,
x x
2.3 Red tape and business environment regulation
2.3.1 Retail regulation
Large-surface outlets, shop opening
hours liberalized, surpressing
excessive regulation
x x x x
2.3.2 Ease business
Time and cost to obtain a
business license, one-stop shops,
"express licence", transaction cost
x x
2.3.3 Insolvency /
Restructuring
Strengthening commercial courts'
capacity, incentives for early rescue of
viable firms, to support out-of-court
workouts for SMEs, personal
insolvency, review bankruptcy ,
proceedings, expertise administrators
x x x x x x x x
2.3.4 Market Unity
Reduce segmentation, remove some
of the 2,700 regulatory barriers
identified
x x x x
2.4 Professional services
2.4.1 Reforming
professional services
Liberalize some highly regulated
professions
x x x
Recommendat. Reforms
2. COMPETITION AND REGULATION
13
2. Competencia y regulación

14. 2. Legislación
Law 4/2013, on Measures to increase the flexibility of and promote the housing rental market.
Law 3/2013 on Creation of the National Markets and Competition Comission (CNMC). Integrates the function all the
regulatory authorities except financial sector.
Draft law on Professional Services. Reduce the restrictions imposed on the providers of professional services.
Law 20/2013 on Single Market. Reduce market segmentation and allow economies of scale.
Law 24/2013, on the Electric Sector. Improving the cost efficiency of the electricity tariff system and addressing its
mounting deficit.
Royal Decree Law 4/2014 on Refinancing and Restructuring of Corporate Debt. Strengthen corporate insolvency
regime to support early restructuring & debt refinancing
Royal Decree Law 8/2014 on Growth, Competitiveness and Efficency. "Tourist areas", in which there will be no
restrictions on the shops' opening hours.
Law 11/2014 on Urgent solvency measures. Facilitate "hair-cuts" in insolvency procedures.
Law 17/2014 on Urgent measures in refinancing and restructuring of corporate debt. Improve the coordination
between notaries, real-estate registrars and the insolvency Registry.
Royal Decree Law 1/2015 of Second chance mechanism, reduction of financial burden and other social order
measures. Facilitating the adoption of the Fresh Start mechanism.
Law 9/2015 on Urgent measures on the insolvency law. Refinancing agreements, the liquidation procedure and the
insolvency agreement.
14

15. EC OECD IMF ILO L35/2010 L3/2012 RDL3/2014 RDL8/2014
3.1 Labour market Regulations
3.1.1 Duality
Reduce number of contracts types, increase severance
payments with tenure, reduce dismissal cost gap, improve
protection temporary workers
x x x x x x
3.1.2 Boost time part work Permanent part-time contract, involuntary part-time x x x
3.1.3 Make wages more
responsive to specific economic
conditions
Reducing automatic wage indexation, align wages &
productivity, eliminating "ultra-activity" , improve data
availability (fact)
x x x x x
3.1.4 Decentralize collective
bargaining
Abolish extension system, increase representation
requirements, opt-in sectorial agreement, internal flexibility
(wage & hours), increase coverage of workers, mitigate risk
of descentralization, Collective bargaining is a key
instrument for addressing inequality
x x x x x
3.1.5 Labour market laws and
judiciary interpretation
Simplifying, reduce discretionary role of courts, same
collective dismissals & individual ones, fair dismissal
x x x x x
3.1.6 Improve labour incomes
Risk of poverty, improve labour incomes, minimum
wage policies & collective bargaiing, reduce pay gap.
x x
3.1.7 Labour tax wedges
Labour tax reductions, abolish subsidies, lower SS
contributions (young & low skilled), target subsidies
x x x x x
3.2 Active Labour Market Policies
3.2.1 Unemployment benefits
Strengthening the link between unemployment
benefits and job search and training activities ,
reducing duration, manadtory interviews
x x
3.2.2 Training and re-skilling
programs for older and youth
Focused training: least qualifies & long term, implementation
of VET policies, expanding the application of dual vocational
training to reduce early school leaving, increase spending,
individualized activation , improve training services.plans.
x x x x
3.2.3 Employment services
Improve functioning, coordination regional & national &
private services, Single job portal, modernize, personalize,
one-stop shop.
x x x x x x
Recommendations Reforms
3. LABOUR MARKET REGULATIONS
15
3. Mercado laboral

16. 3. Legislación
Law 35/2010, on Urgent measures to reform the labor market.
Law 3/2012, on Urgent measures to reform the labor market. Promote labor internal flexibility to limit job destruction
and reduce volatility.
Royal Decree-Law 3/2014 on Urgent Measures to Foster Employment and Permanent Contracts.
Royal Decree Law, 8/2014 on Growth, competitiveness and efficiency.
16

17. EC OECD IMF MoU SBSR L26/2013 RDL4/2014 RDL8/2014 RDL1/2015
4.1 Recapitalization and Restructuring
4.1.1 Weak banks & losses
Resolving unviable banks, mergers of weak banks
should be avoided, imposing losses on senior debt,
depositor preference, support viable banks
x x x x
4.1.2 Distressed assets
Isolating doubtful assets into an asset management
company and legacy assets should be transferred
conservatively priced, transfer of assets from a bank to
the asset management company, provision loans
x x x
4.1.3 Bad bank
Sareb needs to continue to adapt its strategies to
disinvest its portfolio, timely asset disposal.
x x x
4.1.4 Transparency Independent valuation, losses recognized x x x
4.1.5 Stress test
Shock residlence and solvency, AQR, resolution
mechanism
x x x
4.1.6 Bank capital & liquidity
Strengthening capital buffers, backstops, issue equity,
capital ratios, direct recapitalization
x x x x x x
4.1.7 State- aided banks
Return them to private ownership without delay
optimizing the taxpayer's return
x x x
4.1.8 Savings banks
Secondary legislation (circular BdE), management
indepence
x x x
4.2 Other financial measures
4.2.1 Financing sources of
funding
Reduce bank dependency, improve SME access to
finance, debt & equity markets, ICO
x x x x
4.2.2 Deleveraging measures
(Household insolvency regime
& firms)
Personal insolvency regime, support further out-of-
court restructurings for addressing household debt
distress, fresh start
x x x x
4.2.3 Separation bank activities
Separation of high risk activities of universal
banks
x
4.2.4 Tax Tax relief for provisioning loans x
4.2.5 Financial sector regulation
& supervision
Single Supervisory Mechanism, establish macropru,
smooth interaction with the ECB, comprehensive credit
registry for SMEs, sanctioning powers of the banking
and securities regulators
x x x x x x
Recommendations Reforms
4. FINANCIAL SYSTEM
17
4. Sistema financiero

18. 4. Legislación
Royal Decree-Law 11/2010 on Governing bodies and other aspects of the legal regime of savings banks.
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Financial Sector Policy Conditionality.
The Spanish Banking Sector Reform in 2012.
Law 26/2013, on Savings banks and banking foundations.
Royal Decree Law 4/2014 on Refinancing and Restructuring of Corporate Debt.
Royal Decree Law 8/2014 on Growth, Competitiveness and efficiency.
Royal Decree Law 1/2015 of second chance mechanism, reduction of financial burden and other social order measures.
18

19. EC OECD IMF OL2/2012 OL6/2013 TCR L15/2014 L2/2015
5.1 Economic Governance
5.1.1 Independent authority AIREF, access to information x x x x
5.1.2 Regional & local
administrations
Control of regional government budget, inheritance tax,
housing transactions, durable framework for funding regions
x x x
5.1.3 Public arrears Clearing public arrears x x
5.1.4 Transparency
Timely and regular reporting, infrastr. projects,
convergency budgetary codes
x x x
5.1.5 Tax system
Informal economy, tax fraud & evasion, imporve
efficency
x
5.1.6 Growth measures
Dis-indexation law , review expenditure, procurement
contracts (EU legislation), SOE, privatization
x x x
5.2 Fiscal consolidation and fiscal reform
5.2.1 Fiscal enforcement Budgetary Stability Organic Law, deficit targets for regions x x x
5.2.2 Tax reform
Broadening tax base, limit tax expenditure, environmental
taxes, standard VAT rates, from labour to indirect taxes,
recurrent property taxes, lower tax burden on corporate
income and capital gains, Eliminate reintroduced deduction
for mortgage payments
x x x x
5.2.3 Expenditure Systematic expenditure reviews, co-payment x x x
5.3 Reform of the Public Administration
5.3.1 Regional & local
administrations
Coordination, duplicated structures, mergers of
municipalities, e-procurement
x
5.3.2 National administration
reform
Procurement centralisation, downsize the so-called
institutional administration, law-making process, public
sector's commercial debt, anti-corruption policies, digital
approach, protecting whistle-blowers, lobbying
x
5.3.3 Judiciary system
Efficency, Oficina Judicial, accelerate judicial proceedings, IT,
strengthening commercial courts, out-of-court workouts
x x x x
Recommendations Reforms
5. FISCAL POLICY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
19
5. Política fiscal y administración pública

20. 5. Legislación
Organic Law 2/2012 on Budget Stability and Financial Sustainability, a set of fiscal discipline principles at all levels of
the public administration.
Organic Law 6/2013 on the Independent Fiscal Authority.
Law 27/2013 on the Rationalization of Local Authorities.
Tax Code Reform, refer mainly to personal income tax and company income tax and the reform also includes measures
to enhance tax compliance.
Law 15/2014 on the Rationalization of Public Sector. Adopts a number of legal changes that arise from CORA.
Law 2/2015 on the Desindexation of the Spanish Economy.
20

21. EC OECD IMF L23/2013 RDL3/2014 RDL8/2014
6.1 Social Security and Pensions
6.1.1 Social security
Lowering employers' social security contributions,
internal devaluation
x x x x x
6.1.2 Pensions reform
Sustainability factor, adjust to life expectancy, consider
earnings throughout active working life, working at older
age, from 25 years to 30 or 35
x x x x
6.2 Health System
6.2.1 Expenditure
Control of pharmaceutical expenditure,
transparency procurement, cost -effectiveness
x
6.2.2 Management
coordination measures
Primary care provision,interregional mobility,
consolidation, measureemnt of outcomes
x x
6.3 Other welfare State Reforms
6.3.1 Expenditure
Targeting of family support schemes , Spending on the
most vulnerable should be protected
x x
6.3.2 Social assistance
coordination
Simplify procedures, address poverty and social
inclusion, rising poverty and inequalities, high levels of
non-coverage rate, family support schemes
x
6.3.3 Social assistance & labour
market
Social assistance and activation measures, address in-
work poverty, simplify access to accessing minimum
income schemes
x
Recommendations Reforms
6. WELFARE STATE
21
6. Estado de bienestar

22. 6. Legislación
Law 23/2013 on the sustainability factor and the revaluation index in the social security pensions system.
Royal Decree-Law 3/2014 on Urgent Measures to Foster Employment and Permanent Contracts.
Royal Decree Law, 8/2014 on Growth, competitiveness and efficiency.
22

23. 2. Las reformas del pasado - Evaluación
Grado de acierto en objetivos y progreso de reformas (/10)
1. Recapitalización del sistema financiero (6.5; 6.1)
2. Resto de reformas sistema financiero (5.1; 5.0)
3. Seguridad social y pensiones (5.1; 4.6)
4. Regulación del mercado laboral (4.9; 3.9)
5. Sistema de salud (4.7; 4.1)
…
14. Educación (3.7; 2.9)
15. Servicios profesionales (3.4; 2.7)
16. Políticas activas de empleo (3.2; 2.4)
17. Reforma de la admón. Pública (3.2; 2.4)
18. I+D y sociedad del conocimiento (2.9; 2.4)
23

24. Las reformas del pasado: líneas estratégicas
24
1. Reducir sector público y aumentar su eficiencia.
Simplificación de trámites; limitar papel de la administración;
mejorar coordinación intra- e inter-adminsitración.
2. Fomento de la competencia, reducir la regulación y aumento
de transparencia. Liberalización horarios comerciales, unidad
de mercado, servicios profesionales, aeropuertos, energía,..
3. Adaptación de la regulación laboral a las necesidades
empresariales. Reducción de la dualidad via reducción coste
despido; flexibilización a la baja de salarios; descentralizar
negociación.

25. 3. Las reformas del futuro
25

26. Antecedentes I. Trabajos recientes sobre
reformas y la post-crisis en España.
1. Decálogo de Reformas para España. Xavier Vives, 2010
2. Informe sobre España. Repensar el Estado o destruirlo. Santiago
Muñoz Machado, 2012.
3. Qué hacer con España. César Molinas, 2013.
4. El dilema de España. Luis Garicano, 2014.
5. Crecimiento y competitividad. Ivie – F. BBVA. Francisco Pérez
(Dir.), 2014.
6. El bienestar desigual. Guillem López Casasnovas, 2015.
7. En busca de la prosperidad. Javier Andrés y Rafael Doménech,
2015.
8. Growing Like Spain: 1995 – 2007. M. García-Santana, E. Moral-
Benito, J. Pijoan-Mas, R. Ramos, 2016 (WP).
9. Economistas, políticos y otros animales. Miguel Ángel Fernández
Ordóñez, 2016.
10. España 2030: Gobernar el futuro. José Moisés Martín Carretero,
2016.
26

27. Antecedentes II. Trabajos de fondo sobre la crisis
y la recuperación
1. Political Credit Cylce: The Case of the Eurozone. J. Fernández-
Villaverde, T. Santos, L. Garicano, JEP, 2013.
2. House of Debt. How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession,
and How We Can prevent It from Happening Again. Atif Mian y
Amir Sufi, 2014.
3. Fragile by Design. The Political Origins of Banking Crisis and
Scarce Credit. Charles W. Calomiris, Stephen H .Haber, 2014.
4. Hall of Mirrors. The Great Depression, The Great Recession, and
the Uses-and-Misuses of History. Barry Eichengreen, 2015.
5. Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy. An agenda for
growth and shared prosperity. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2016.
27

28. 3. Las reformas del futuro: principios y escenario
Principios
I. Mayor y mejor inversión en educación y en personas
II. Ciudadanos mejor informados; mayor rendición de cuentas
III. Trabajadores con mayor poder de negociación
IV. Mayor competencia en los mercados; independencia en regulación
V. Utilizar la capacidad de transformación y arrastre del sector público
Escenario
• Nuevas restricciones políticas, económicas y sociales
• Negociación, transacción y pacto: imprescindibles
• Stiglitz (2016) para US, ¿también para España?
– Los cambios en la regulación doméstica (particularmente en materia laboral)
han tenido mucho más impacto sobre el funcionamiento de la economía y la
desigualdad que la globalización;
– Hay que asegurar “control por arriba” (limitar rent-seeking) y “ensanchar por
en medio”;
– El esquema de dejar actuar al mercado y luego redistribuir con impuestos y
transferencias es insuficiente para reducir desigualdad y generar
oportunidades. 28

29. 3. Las reformas del futuro: factibles y transformadoras
I. Mayor inversión en el largo plazo y en las personas
1. Pacto para la educación; propuesta Garicano-Gabilondo + Marina
2. Mejorar diseño Agencia Española Investigación; recursos: evitar zig-zag
II. Ciudadanos mejor informados; mayor rendición de cuentas
3. Obligación de memoria económica para cada ley; validación AIReF
4. Sistema de 5-6 indicadores por MIN; auditoría y control calidad serv. publ.
III. Trabajadores con mayor poder de negociación
5. Nuevo modelo políticas activas de empleo
6. Observatorio Mercado Laboral: independiente, revisión mercado laboral
IV. Mayor competencia en los mercados; independencia regulación
7. CNMC: protec. consumidor y serv. inspección; mejorar gobernanza
8. Proceso abierto en selección personal directivo reguladores/supervisores
V. Utilizar la capacidad de transformación y arrastre del sector público
9. Compra pública condicionada a criterios laborales, fiscales, medioambient.
10. Plan general de contratación de servicios financieros del sector público
29

30. Antecedentes
30
Comisión Europea, Programa de Ajuste de Portugal, Junio 2011

31. Muchas gracias
31