Presented by M. Herrero, P.K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Msangi, S. Wood, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott M. Peters and P. Parthasarathy Rao at the Nairobi Forum, ILRI, Nairobi, 21 September 2010
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Drivers of change in crop-livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human well-being to 2030
1. Drivers of change in crop-livestock systems and their potential impacts on agro-ecosystems services and human well-being to 2030 M. Herrero, P.K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Msangi, S. Wood, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott M. Peters and P. Parthasarathy Rao Nairobi Forum Presentation 21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi
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4. W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system An example of the changing nature of livestock systems Courtesy of B. Gerard
17. Framework of the study (adapted from MEA 2005) global local regional actions Indirect Drivers demographic (urbanisation/migration) economic processes (consumption, production, markets, trade) science and technology cultural, social, political, institutional Pressures land use resource extraction biomass competition use of external inputs emissions biodiversity Agro-ecosystems services food production (crops and livestock) fibers, oils, minerals biomass / energy ecosystems services (water, biodiversity, air quality, etc) environmental regulation human well-being food security poverty incomes and employment human health resilience and vulnerability income diversification social and gender equality context specific options / solutions technologies, policies and institutions trends scenarios impacts impacts responses Direct Drivers Volume and pattern of demand Changes in local land use and cover Consumption patterns Water availability Technology adaptation and use Climate change Development context and systems diversity actions actions
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19. General methodology IFPRI IMPACT model Children malnutrition Food consumption Feed demand Livestock numbers Livestock production Crop production, areas World prices Food production units Sere and Steinfeld Farming systems classification 11 systems Simplification to 4 systems: Agro-pastoral Mixed extensive Mixed intensive others Market access layers LGP Re-sampling and dis-agreggation by system
27. Globally, most people are (and will be) in mixed crop – livestock systems Based on the UN medium variant projection
28. Food production Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high potential, relatively good market access)
29. Mixed systems in the developing World produce the food of the poor
30. Mixed systems produce significant amounts of milk and meat beef milk lamb Developed countries dominate global milk production, significant exports … but… Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World
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32. Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures (2) * Baseline scenario Population density* (people/km 2 ) 2000 2030 agro-pastoral 8 14 mixed extensive 79 112 mixed intensive 273 371 other 28 41
33. Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countries Catching up Rates lower than those of population growth
34. … but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates…. Increased consumption Increased incomes … but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc) Some industrialisation….
35. … but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates….(2) Increased consumption Increased incomes … but increased pressure on grains…increase in prices?
36. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 human consumption 458 million MT Livestock 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly biofuels 160 million MT
37. Prices of food-feed crops are likely to increase at faster rates than the prices of livestock products (IAASTD 2008) grains livestock products human consumption livestock energy Monogastrics mostly
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40. In intensive systems, feed shortages for ruminants might increase demand for cereals further. If these end up being fed on grains…this might lead to reduce food consumption of poor people further grains livestock products human consumption livestock energy Monogastrics mostly + ruminants Further increases?
41. ‘ Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases India quotes from M Blummel ‘ Stovers transported more than 400 km to be sold’ ‘ Price has doubled in 5 years, now 1/3 (2/3) of grain value of sorghum’ ‘ Farmers paying for stover quality’ Herrero et al. in prep
42. The highest rates of malnutrition relative to population numbers are in agro-pastoral systems followed by the mixed intensive systems … but significant regional variability exists
43. Expansion of biofuels will likely reduce household food consumption in most systems … but significant regional variability exists
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46. YIELD GAPS FOR SELECTED COMMODITIES Sources: (1) IAC - (2) ICRISAT - (3) IITA - (4) IFPRI - (5) xxx Freeman et al 2007 Crop Location Mimimum yield on farmers field (t/ha) Maximum Attainable Yield at experimental field (t/ha)* % Millet Sudan Savanna, Nigeria (3) 0.35 2 17.5 Matopo, Zimbabwe (2) 0.22 1.69 13 Sorghum Sudan Savanna, Nigeria (3) 0.5 3.9 12.8 Matopo, Zimbabwe (2) 0.31 1.83 16.9 Cowpea Northern Guinea Savanna (3) 0.05 2.2 2.3 Sudan Savanna, Nigeria (3) 0.05 2.5 2 Dairy (5) Kenya x y z
47. Crop production in mixed extensive systems growing at faster rates than in intensive ones Catching up Mixed extensive growing at fastest rates