Achiievers Equities Daily Commodity Report

Daily Commodity Report as on Friday, December 5, 2014
Date : Friday, December 5, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1

Open High Low Close % Cng OI
Gold 26676 26766 26570 26636 -0.52 8044
Silver 36963 37500 36931 37269 0.62 8491
Alum. 122.1 123.1 121.7 122.95 1.07 4031
Copper 399.5 405.9 399.5 403.9 1.32 12573
Lead 126.25 126.9 126 126.25 0.64 1797
Nickel 1035 1061.5 1035 1059.1 2.86 4582
Zinc 137.75 139.1 137.75 138.3 0.88 3743
Crude 4200 4237 4103 4136 -1.22 17307
Nat. Gas 235.3 236.4 226.1 226.8 -3.61 13578
Chana 26676 26766 26570 26636 -0.52 8044
Cardamom 858 863.9 856 858.5 0.35 1055
Turmeric 7382 7412 7302 7338 -0.81 14705
Jeera 12520 12765 12455 12645 1.00 6921
Wheat 1650 1653 1641 1651 0.06 1100
Soyabean 3308 3326 3261 3273 -1.06 98270
Ref. Oil 586.4 586.8 578.3 579.9 -0.79 76990
CPO 435.4 435.5 429.2 431.4 -0.83 3859
RMSeed 3957 3973 3916 3924 -0.78 22260
Menthol 696.5 699.3 692 693.1 0.03 8345
Cotton 15780 15860 15780 15830 0.38 5180
USDINR 62.25 62.25 62.16 62.23 0.03 2229922
EURINR 76.62 76.70 76.49 76.66 -0.09 50607
GBPINR 97.32 97.66 97.32 97.55 0.15 32052
JPYINR 51.74 51.95 51.74 51.94 -0.36 19586
Market Round upPrecious Metals
Gold dropped as the euro rebounded after ECB said the bank would reevaluate the case for more stimulus next year.
Base Metal
Silver seen supported after ECB chief Mario Draghi said the bank would reevaluate the case for more stimulus next
year
Crude oil dropped after Saudi Arabia has trimmed its prices for export to the US and Asia.
Natural gas plunged by -3.61% sharply to hit the lowest level in five weeks after data showed that supplies fell less
than forecast last week.
Ref soyoil prices dropped as pressure seen on the higher supply in International market and on weak demand.
Cereals
Mentha oil prices ended with gains tracking a firm trend at spot market on rising demand.
Oil and Oilseeds & Others
Soyabean ended with losses tracking weakness in spot prices amid late profit booking.
Energy
Copper gained as the dollar slid following uncertainty about potential stimulus in Europe and after a fire at a mine
Zinc ended with gains on signs that demand will stay robust in the U.S. and China.
Pulses
Nickel ended higher as the price of some nickel ore stocks in China began to rise on dwindling supply.
Spices
Chana prices ended with losses on subdued demand from bulk consumers and increasing stocks at warehouses.
Turmeric prices dropped due to adequate supply into the spot markets.
Currency
Jeera prices gained due to pick up in domestic and export demand in the spot market

MCX Gold Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 26676 SUP-2 26461 Gold trading range for the day is 26461-26853.
HIGH 26766 SUP-1 26548
Gold dropped as the euro rebounded after ECB said the bank would reevaluate the case
for more stimulus next year.
LOW 26570 P.P. 26657
Uncertainty ahead of a key reading of U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday and caution after
wide swings in gold prices on Monday.
Gold settled down -0.52% at 26636 after some upbeat economic data from the U.S. showed initial jobless claims for unemployment benefits to have dropped more than expected last week. Gold was heading for its best week
in over 10 months on Friday as a modest bounce in oil prices boosted demand for the metal as an inflation-hedge, but investors were nervous ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could trigger sharp moves. The precious
metal was also impacted after the ECB said any additional stimulus measures would only be considered next year, while leaving its interest rates unchanged. In some upbeat data from the U.S., initial jobless claims dropped
in the week ended November 29, after reporting an unexpected increase in claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the previous week. ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday said policymakers will reassess the impact of
the stimulus measures already taken early next year, but reiterated that the bank stands ready to take further action if required to avert deflation. Draghi said the ECB discussed additional stimulus measures, even as officials
considered all assets excluding gold. While Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 720.02 tons on Thursday, from a previous close of 717.63 tons. On Friday, the U.S. is to round up the week with the closely
watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings, as well as a report on factory orders. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by
1.86% to settled at 8044 while prices down -140 rupee, now Gold is getting support at 26548 and below same could see a test of 26461 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 26744, a move above could see prices
testing 26853.
MCX Silver Mar 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 36963 SUP-2 36664 Silver trading range for the day is 36664-37802.
CLOSE 26636 RES-1 26744
The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold at their current record lows of 0.05%
in a widely anticipated decision.
% CNG -0.52 RES-2 26853 SELL GOLD FEB @ 26800 SL 26980 TGT 2640-26450. MCX
HIGH 37500 SUP-1 36966
Silver seen supported after ECB chief Mario Draghi said the bank would reevaluate the
case for more stimulus next year
LOW 36931 P.P. 37233
Investors had been looking for a clear sign from Draghi that ECB was heading for a move
into the sort of outright printing of money, or quantitative easing
CLOSE 37269 RES-1 37535
A report showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell
last week, pointing to an improving labor market.
% CNG 0.62 RES-2 37802 SELL SILVER MAR @ 37600 SL 37950 TGT 36850-36400. MCX
Silver settled up 0.62% at 37269 held to steady after the ECB held off on introducing fresh stimulus measures, which sent the euro gaining and the dollar falling. Bullion and the dollar tend to trade inversely with one another,
but an upbeat report on U.S. jobless claims kept gold's gains in check, sending the precious metal into negative territory at times. The ECB left interest rates on hold at their current record lows of 0.05% earlier Thursday, in
a widely anticipated decision. The single currency rose after Draghi said the ECB would reassess the success of its existing stimulus programs and the impact of weak oil prices on the euro area economy in the early part of
next year. He said the bank could potentially change the size, scale and composition of its existing stimulus programs. The governing council remains unanimous that it will take further measures if necessary, he added. The
ECB's current stimulus program includes purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds, though markets have been keeping a close eye out for plans to announce purchases of government debt, and the bank's
decision to remain in a wait-and-see mode gave the euro support on Thursday. The ECB substantially revised down its forecasts for growth and inflation and warned that the latest forecasts do not take into account the recent
steep drop in oil prices. The bank now expects the euro zone economy to grow by just 0.8% this year, 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. It cut its inflation forecast for this year to just 0.5% from 0.6% and to 0.7% in 2015
from 1.1%. Technically market is getting support at 36966 and below same could see a test of 36664 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37535, a move above could see prices testing 37802.

MCX Crudeoil Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 4200 SUP-2 4025 Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4025-4293.
HIGH 4237 SUP-1 4081 Crude oil dropped after Saudi Arabia has trimmed its prices for export to the US and Asia.
LOW 4103 P.P. 4159
Saudi Arabia lowered official selling prices for its crude in January to the lowest in at least
14 years for buyers in the U.S. and Asia.
Crudeoil settled down -1.22% at 4136 on news that Saudi Arabia has trimmed its prices for export to the US and Asia, although the loss was limited with the more than expected decline in US stockpiles yesterday. The drop
was also capped by some upbeat data from the US indicating the economy to be picking up as initial jobless claims for unemployment benefits declined, beating expectations for an increase in claims last week. Saudi Arabia,
the world's largest oil exporter, is reported to have reduced its prices for for Asia and the US with heavy discounts, while continuing to maintain its world market share. On Wednesday, Crude oil ended at at $67.38 a barrel,
up $0.50 or 0.7 percent, after an official report from the EIA showed crude oil inventories declining more than expected last week. The U.S. EIA report showed U.S. crude oil stockpiles to have declined 3.7mbls in the week
ended November 28, even as market expected a 1.3mbls increase. Nonetheless, gasoline stocks rose 2.1mbls last week, while market anticipated a gain of 1.1mbls. There was further disappointment for traders after ECB
President Mario Draghi on Thursday said policymakers will reassess the impact of the stimulus measures already taken early next year, but reiterated that the bank stands ready to take further action if required to avert
deflation. Draghi said the ECB discussed additional stimulus measures, even as officials considered all assets excluding gold. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.1% to
settled at 17307 while prices down -51 rupee, now Crudeoil is getting support at 4081 and below same could see a test of 4025 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4215, a move above could see prices testing
4293.
MCX Copper Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 399.5 SUP-2 396.7 Copper trading range for the day is 396.7-409.5.
CLOSE 4136 RES-1 4215 Pressure seen after the report that US Oil Reserves Highest Since at Least 1975 on Shale
% CNG -1.22 RES-2 4293 SELL CRUDE OIL DEC @ 4180 SL 4220 TGT 4136-4090.MCX
HIGH 405.9 SUP-1 400.3
Copper gained as the dollar slid following uncertainty about potential stimulus in Europe
and after a fire at a mine
LOW 399.5 P.P. 403.1 Though concerns about the outlook for demand from top consumer China limited gains.
CLOSE 403.9 RES-1 406.7
Copper prices also were supported by a fire at Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, which
has been brought under control.
% CNG 1.32 RES-2 409.5 BUY COPPER FEB @ 401 SL 398 TGT 404.50-408.MCX
Copper settled up 1.32% at 403.90 climbed on Thursday to its highest in nearly a week as the dollar slid following uncertainty about potential stimulus in Europe and after a fire at a mine, though concerns about the outlook
for demand from top consumer China limited gains. The dollar fell against the euro after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi failed to give a strong signal about injecting more stimulus into the euro zone economy.
The dollar index was on track for the largest one-day drop since mid-October. A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in the U.S. unit cheaper for holders of other currencies. Uncertainty about the outlook for copper
demand from top consumer China, where economic growth has been slowing and the property sector cooling, has prevented prices from registering stronger gains. China cut benchmark interest rates for the first time in two
years last week in an attempt to jumpstart the economy, giving metals prices a boost. Meanwhile, the ECB left its interest rates unchanged on Thursday. ECB chief Mario Draghi stated that the bank is set to reassess its
current stimulus in Q1 2015, but that no new measures are likely to be unveiled in January. In response, the euro rebounded sharply above 1.24 against the US dollar and supported base metals to ended with gains. US
nonfarm payrolls due for release on Friday should be encouraging, but uncertainties remain in the US labor market in light of a series of recent economic indicators. However, sentiment in base metals markets is expected to
recover on Friday, helped by a rally in copper prices. Technically market is getting support at 400.3 and below same could see a test of 396.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 406.7, a move above could see
prices testing 409.5.

MCX Zinc Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 137.8 SUP-2 137.0 Zinc trading range for the day is 137-139.8.
HIGH 139.1 SUP-1 137.7 Zinc ended with gains on signs that demand will stay robust in the U.S. and China.
LOW 137.8 P.P. 138.4
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi failed to give a strong signal about injecting
more stimulus into the euro zone economy.
Zinc settled up 0.88% at 138.30 posted the most significant gains, as boosted by the market sentiment. European Central Bank President did not announce any quantitative easing measures, weighing down the US dollar
index and bolstering commodity market. European Central Bank (ECB) left its interest rates unchanged on Thursday. ECB chief Mario Draghi stated that the bank is set to reassess its current stimulus in Q1 2015, but that no
new measures are likely to be unveiled in January. In response, the euro rebounded sharply above 1.24 against the US dollar. The US dollar index slipped 0.38% to 88.6. European and US equities fell across the board. LME
base metals ended with gains. While China’s stock markets have posted sharp gains in recent trading days, while US nonfarm payroll numbers are expected to come in positive late on Friday, both helping lift market
sentiment. Yin Zhongli, Deputy Director of the Financial Market Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, projected that the Shanghai Composite Index may rise to 4,000-5,000 in 2015. Mr. Yin explained
that the Chinese government has to rely on capital markets to tackle tight credit and will adopt various measures to kick-start its economic growth next year. As such, base metals and iron ore closed higher on Thursday even
though Saudi Arabia’s move to increase discounts on crude oil exported to the US and Asia depressed oil prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.44% to settled at
3743 while prices up 1.2 rupee, now Zinc is getting support at 137.7 and below same could see a test of 137 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 139.1, a move above could see prices testing 139.8.
MCX Nickel Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 1035.0 SUP-2 1025.4 Nickel trading range for the day is 1025.4-1078.4.
CLOSE 138.3 RES-1 139.1 Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 275 tonnes.
% CNG 0.88 RES-2 139.8 BUY ZINC DEC ABV 138.40 SL 137.20 TGT 139-139.80.MCX
HIGH 1061.5 SUP-1 1042.3
Nickel ended higher as the price of some nickel ore stocks in China began to rise on
dwindling supply.
LOW 1035.0 P.P. 1051.9
Prices also seen supported as investors became more certain that Indonesia would keep
its ban on ore exports
CLOSE 1059.1 RES-1 1068.8
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week,
pointing to an improving labour market.
% CNG 2.86 RES-2 1078.4 BUY NICKEL DEC @ 1048 SL 1035 TGT 1060-1075.MCX
Nickel settled up 2.86% at 1059.10 continued to lift on supply concerns after Indonesia’s Constitutional Court upheld a mineral ore export ban implemented in January. Indonesia was a key exporter of high-grade nickel ore
to China’s nickel pig iron sector before the export ban took effect. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its interest rates unchanged on Thursday. ECB chief Mario Draghi stated that the bank is set to reassess its
current stimulus in Q1 2015, but that no new measures are likely to be unveiled in January. In response, the euro rebounded sharply above 1.24 against the US dollar. The US dollar index slipped 0.38% to 88.6. European
and US equities fell across the board. LME base metals ended with gains. US nonfarm payrolls due for release on Friday should be encouraging, but uncertainties remain in the US labor market in light of a series of recent
economic indicators. However, sentiment in base metals markets is expected to recover on Friday, helped by a rally in nickel prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by
15.39% to settled at 4582 while prices up 29.4 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 1042.3 and below same could see a test of 1025.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1068.8, a move above could see
prices testing 1078.4.

NCDEX Chana Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 3090 SUP-2 3007 Chana trading range for the day is 3007-3109.
HIGH 3090 SUP-1 3026
Chana prices ended with losses on subdued demand from bulk consumers and increasing
stocks at warehouses.
LOW 3039 P.P. 3058
Domestic demand for chickpea is weak in local mandis as quality available in market is of
inferior variety.
Chana settled down by -1.84% at 3045 on subdued demand from bulk consumers and increasing stocks at warehouses. Domestic demand for chickpea is weak in local mandis as quality available in market is of inferior
variety. Chana arrivals were staedy 20 trucks as compared to previous day. Chana is the largest consumed pulse in the country and is largely dependent on imports to meet the domestic consumption needs. This has lead to
a rise in the food import bill, impacting the country’s fiscal deficit. To curb rising imports, the Government tried to boost domestic production and made a significant hike in the minimum support price (MSP) of chana from Rs.
1,760 per quintal in 2009-10 to Rs. 3,100 in 2013-14. This encouraged many farmers to bring more area under chana. According to the fourth advanced estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture, chana output in 2013-
14 is estimated at 9.88 million tonnes, up 11.9 per cent compared with 8.83 million tonnes the previous year. The Government had initially set a target of 8.66 million tonnes. Increased acreage and favourable climatic
conditions in the major producing States such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Karnataka also helped to push up the yield. Being a rabi crop, sowing of chana takes place after the harvesting of kharif crops
between October and December, while harvesting takes place from January through May. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -34.6 rupee to end at 3022.7 rupee per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as
market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.06% to settled at 71610, now Chana is getting support at 3026 and below same could see a test of 3007 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3077, a move above
could see prices testing 3109.
NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2015 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 7382 SUP-2 7240 Turmeric trading range for the day is 7240-7460.
CLOSE 3045 RES-1 3077 NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks gained by 778 tonnes to 40358 tonnes.
% CNG -1.84 RES-2 3109 BUY CHANA JAN @ 3060-3072 SL BELOW 3000 TGT 3122-3164-3198. NCDEX (1 WEEK)
HIGH 7412 SUP-1 7288 Turmeric prices dropped due to adequate supply into the spot markets.
LOW 7302 P.P. 7350
At Nizamabad market total arrivals are at 500 quintals, up by 200 quintals from previous
trading day.
CLOSE 7338 RES-1 7398
The total production of turmeric in the current year is expected to be around 35-37 lakh
bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year.
% CNG -0.81 RES-2 7460 SELL TURMERIC APR BELOW 7380 SL ABV 7500 TGT 7280-7160. NCDEX (STBT)
Turmeric settled down by -0.81% at 7338 due to adequate supply into the spot markets. Besides, subdued domestic demand also kept pressure on turmeric prices. At Erode market estimated market supply was at 3000
quintals, steady as against previous day’s arrival. At Nizamabad market total arrivals are at 500 quintals, up by 200 quintals from previous trading day. As per the market sources, the total production of turmeric in the
current year is expected to be around 35-37 lakh bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year. This is mainly due to weak production forecast in major producing states such as Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu. Sources
mentioned that weak rainfall so far in the major growing regions of turmeric in the state such as Nizamabad and Warangal will reduce the crop to 17-18 lakh bags from 22 lakh bags projected in the last year. Spot turmeric
sales increased though prices ruled steady in Erode markets following upcountry demand. Though 2,300 bags arrived, the sale was encouraging due to demand received by the traders from North India. Local traders
procured 70 per cent of the arrivals. The hybrid finger turmeric was up Rs. 200 a quintal, while the local turmeric was up Rs. 100. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association sales yard, the finger turmeric was sold at Rs.
3,619-6,459 a quintal; the root variety Rs. 3,399-5,893. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6315.8 rupees dropped -16 rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed
gain in open interest by 0.93% to settled at 14705 while prices down -60 rupee, now Turmeric is getting support at 7288 and below same could see a test of 7240 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7398, a
move above could see prices testing 7460.

MCX Menthaoil Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA
OPEN 696.5 SUP-2 687.5 Menthaoil trading range for the day is 687.5-702.1.
HIGH 699.3 SUP-1 690.3 Menthaoil spot is at 790/-. Spot market is up by Rs.2/-.
LOW 692.0 P.P. 694.8 Mentha oil prices ended with gains tracking a firm trend at spot market on rising demand.
CLOSE 693.1 RES-1 697.6
With winter season approaching the export demand and winter season domestic demand
are expected to pick up.
% CNG 0.03 RES-2 702.1 BUY MENTHA OIL DEC ABV 698 SL BELOW 688 TGT 706-718-726. MCX (BTST)
403.9 138.3 1059.1 122.95
Mentha oil settled up tracking a firm trend at spot market on rising demand. Further, tight supplies in the physical market following limited arrivals from the major producing belts too fuelled the uptrend. Range bound trend
is noticed in mentha oil even as traders anticipate further fall in rates may be limited at these lower levels. With winter season approaching the export demand and winter season domestic demand are expected to pick up in
the coming few weeks till before Christmas. This is likely to be a strong supporting factor for the prices. At Barabanki market sources reported arrivals at 100 Drums(1-drum-180kg), lower by 50 Drums(1-drum-180kg) as
against previous day. At Sambhal market Arrivals were reported at 60 Drums(1-drum=180kg), unchanged as compared to previous day’s arrival. At Bareilly market sources reported arrivals at 3 Drums(1-drum-180kg), down
by 1 Drums(1-drum-180kg) as compared to previous day. At Rampur market arrivals were reported at 6 Drums(1-drum=180kg), unchanged as compared to previous day’s arrival. As per the Latest reports from Spice Board
indicate that for the period April-December last year, exports for Mint value-added products like Oil, Menthol and its crystals rose 94% in volumes at 17,850 tonnes and 39% in value at Rs 2202 Cr w.r.t. same period the
previous year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.52% to settled at 8345 while prices up 0.2 rupee, now Menthaoil is getting support at 690.3 and below same
could see a test of 687.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 697.6, a move above could see prices testing 702.1.
DAILY MARKET LEVEL FOR METAL AND ENERGY
COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM LEAD
126.3
26744 37535 4215 233.5
CLOSE 26636 37269 4136 226.8
406.7 139.1 1068.8 123.5
138.4 1051.9 122.6
RESISTANCE
26940 38104 4349 243.8 413.1 140.5 1095.3 124.9
26853 37802 4293 240.1 409.5 139.8 1078.4 124.0
P. POINT 26657 37233 4159 229.8 403.1
26352 36397 3947 212.9 393.9
SUPPORT 26461 36664 4025 219.5 396.7 1025.4 121.2
26548 36966 4081 223.2 400.3
OI 8044 8491 17307 13578 12573 3743 4582 4031
136.3 1015.8 120.7
137.7 1042.3 122.1
137.0
Positive Positive
SPREAD 144 629 33.00 2.30 3.90 0.50 6.90
TREND Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive
0.65
127.7
127.3
126.8
125.0
125.5
125.9
1797
126.4
0.8

12:30pm EUR 0.006 0.008
3:30pm EUR 0.002 0.002
7:00pm USD 231K 214K
7:00pm USD -41.3B -43.0B
7:00pm USD 0.058 0.058
7:00pm USD 0.002 0.001
7:15pm USD 0 0
8:30pm USD 0 -0.006
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
Factory Orders m/m
0
0
0
0
0
PREV
A top Federal Reserve official known for his longtime opposition to the U.S. central bank's super-easy
policies called on Wednesday for the Fed to begin trimming its massive balance sheet even before it
begins to raise interest rates. In October, the Fed ended a program of bond-buying aimed at
stimulating the economy, but it still holds trillions of dollars of Treasuries and housing-backed
securities on its books that continue to exert downward pressure on U.S. borrowing costs. When
bonds mature, it tops up its balance sheet with fresh purchases to keep that downward pressure
steady. Such a move would represent an about-face for the Fed, which has signaled it will continue to
reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds until after it begins raising interest rates from their current
near-zero level. Fisher's views are often outside the mainstream at the Fed and probably do not signal
a change in direction for the U.S. central bank. They do, however, offer a window into the kinds of
arguments that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hear in two weeks when Fed policymakers meet to weigh
any changes to its guidance on how long it will keep rates low.
Fri
German Factory Orders m/m
Revised GDP q/q
Non-Farm Employment Change
Trade Balance
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
FOMC Member Mester Speaks
NEWS YOU CAN USE DAY TIME ZONE ECONOMICAL DATA EXP
Non-Oil private sector growth in Saudi Arabia slowed further in November, as output, new orders and
employment rose at weaker rates, data from a survey conducted jointly by Markit Economics, Saudi
British Bank and HSBC Bank showed. The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index, or PMI,
for the non-oil private sector fell to 57.6 in November from 59.1 in October. However, any reading
above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. The latest reading was the lowest for six months. Non-oil
private sector output continued its expansion in November. But the rate of growth continued to slow,
hitting an eight month low due to increased competition and slower demand. New orders also rose at
a weaker rate and it was the lowest since May. Firms raised their employment levels for the eighth
successive month in November, but the rate of growth was only marginal and marked slowest since
July. On the price front, input prices continued to rise in November, led mainly by higher purchase
prices and also both higher demand and inflationary pressures. At the same time, output charges
increased at a slower pace.
The HSBC UAE purchasing managers' index, or PMI, fell to 58.3 in November from October's record
high of 61.2. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. Nonetheless, the November
reading was the joint-third highest since the series began in August 2009. Non-oil private sector
output rose in November, in line with the positive trend shown since February 2010. But the rate of
growth eased from the previous month and was the slowest in three months. New work received by
firms rose at slower pace in November, compared to previous month. New export orders increased at
a faster pace during the month, with the growth rebounding from October's nine-month-low. Firms
raised both purchasing activity and employment level in November in order to accommodate higher
workloads, though at a slower rate than in the previous month. On the price front, input prices rose at
the weakest rate since June 2013. Output prices increased for the second month running in
November, albeit at a slower rate.
India’s vegetable oil import is likely to hit a new record this year at 12.3 million tonnes (mt) due to
continuous rise in demand amid falling prices and lower output from domestic sources. At this level,
however, vegetable oil import will rise six per cent from 11.62 mt in the previous year. Delay in the
monsoon, coupled with an overall deficit of showers this season, has resulted in the sharp decline in
the oilseeds output this kharif harvesting season. The first advanced estimate of India’s oilseeds
output at 19.66 mt, a sharp decline from 22.41 mt in the previous year and 21.83 per cent of the
target. The decline in oilseeds production would lead to decline in the vegetable oil output, while the
sharp upsurge in demand on falling prices is set to widen the deficit. India might import larger
tonnages of crude palm oil (CPO), which will bring domestic refiners back to business. Consumption of
vegetable oils, however, will be strong on account of low prices and a feel good factor prevalent with
the new government. India imports CPO largely from Indonesia and Malaysia for blending with other
vegetable oils produced from local oilseeds. Both countries cut export duty to nil to push their surplus
quantity into India. Falling prices have been a major factor for import surge. For example, average
RBD (refined, bleached and diodized) palmolein price fell sharply to $727 in October from $938 a
tonne in March.
The world's biggest palm oil producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, are set to benefit from an imminent
fall in rapeseed output in India, a top industry body said. "An incremental rise in overseas purchases
due to a fall in local rapeseed oil output would be bridged by rise in palm oil imports," B.V. Mehta,
executive director of the Solvent Extractors' Association, told Reuters. India imports palm oils mainly
from Indonesia and Malaysia. In 2013-14, its palm oil imports fell for the first time in four years.
Traders forecast India's rapeseed output could fall a tenth in 2014-15 as farmers sowed the main
winter oilseed crop on a smaller area than the previous season because of poor soil moisture in the
main growing areas. That could lead to higher imports of edible oils to India, the world's leading
buyer, in the current marketing year that began in November and might support benchmark
Malaysian palm oil futures, which have dropped by a fifth this year. Traders expect rapeseed output to
drop to 7.0 million tonnes in the 2014-15 crop year (July-June) from 7.4 million last year. The planted
area is forecast to drop by 6 percent to 6.7 million hectares (16.6 million acres) from 7.1 million
hectares. Rapeseed oil supplies could fall by 11 percent to 2.4 million tonnes in 2014-15 from the
previous year, when ample monsoon rain helped the oilseed crop.

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