Sushil Finance present their daily update on the commodity markets. Read about the latest commodity news, outlook and technical strategies on Gold, Silver, Crude Oil.
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Sushil finance commodity daily
1. Wednesday, January 14, 2015 For Private Circulation Only
MAJOR COMMODITIES
Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change
Gold 5-Feb 27262 27005 27055 25 Gold (Oz) Feb 1244.50 1227.40 1234.40 1.60
Silver 5-Mar 38290 37240 38158 1187 Silver (Oz) Mar 17.22 16.57 17.16 0.59
Crude Oil 16-Jan 2870 2757 2826 -64 Crude Oil Feb 46.79 44.20 45.89 -0.18
Natural Gas 27-Jan 182.30 175.00 180.70 6.00 Natural Gas Feb 2.97 2.80 2.94 0.15
Copper 27-Feb 375.60 364.20 364.95 -12.15 Copper 3M 6034.00 5774.75 5774.75 -257.00
Nickel 30-Jan 936.70 903.60 905.10 -34.10 Nickel 3M 15160.00 14465.00 14499.00 -645.00
Aluminium 30-Jan 112.20 109.80 110.85 -1.15 Aluminium 3M 1816.50 1772.00 1785.00 -29.00
Lead 30-Jan 115.25 112.40 112.75 -2.65 Lead 3M 1865.00 1814.00 1817.00 -44.00
Zinc 30-Jan 132.60 128.80 129.00 -3.35 Zinc 3M 2145.00 2074.75 2074.75 -65.50
News & Development
๏ท The European Central Bank should decide sooner rather than later whether to start large-scale purchases of government bonds,
ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said in a newspaper interview published on Tuesday.
๏ท The British Retail Consortium said year-on-year retail spending was 1.0 percent higher this December than a year ago, the weakest
December growth since 2008 and a sharp contrast with November's 2.2 percent jump.
๏ท China's December trade data beat expectations as demand from a stronger U.S. economy helped offset weakness in Europe and
Japan, while Chinese bargain-shopping in commodities markets put a floor under sliding imports. Exports in December rose 9.7
percent from a year earlier in dollar-denominated terms, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday,
handily beating a Reuters poll by nearly three full percentage points. Imports dropped by only 2.4 percent, where analysts'
consensus was for a far steeper decline of 7.4 percent.
(Source: Reuters)
2. Page 2
Commodity Daily
Gold
Gold was little changed on Tuesday, paring gains after hitting technical
resistance at a 12-week high, moving in choppy trading as the dollar
returned near its session highs and as crude oil prices pared steep losses.
Earlier, investors sought refuge from turbulence in stock and currency
markets after crude oil prices slid to a near six-year low.
The dollar gained, still benefiting from more upbeat U.S. economic
prospects compared with the rest of the world that should keep the
Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates this year.
Outlook
We expect gold prices are likely to trade on positive note on the back of
Greece concerns.
Technical Outlook
Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Feb Buy @ S1 26780 26950 27055 27100 27250
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Silver
Silver rose 4 percent to a one-month high on potential supply
concerns.
ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said in a newspaper
interview that the ECB should decide sooner rather than later whether
to start large-scale purchases of government bonds.
Investors expect the ECB to launch its own quantitative easing at next
week's meeting, as data out of the euro zone has become bleaker and
bleaker by the day.
Outlook
We expect Silver prices are likely to trade on positive note on the back
of Greece concerns.
Technical Outlook
Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Mar Buy @ S1 37300 37700 38158 38400 38900
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
3. Page 3
Commodity Daily
Crude Oil
Oil tumbled 5 percent to near six-year lows before recovering ground on
Tuesday, and Brent briefly traded at par to U.S. crude for the first time in
three months as some traders moved to take advantage of ample
storage space in the United States.
Traders were searching to store the glut of oil, which has knocked prices
down 60 percent in the last six months. So far this week, Brent has lost 7
percent and U.S. crude 5 percent.
Oil tumbled earlier after big OPEC producer United Arab Emirates
defended the group's decision not to cut output to boost prices.
Losses were pared by a flurry of short-covering toward the close, as
players moved to cash in on profitable short positions, traders said.
Traders said the benchmarks converged as limited storage on land for
Brent forced traders to look for storage in the Cushing, Oklahoma,
delivery point for U.S. crude.
U.S. onshore storage tanks for crude are barely a third full, showing the
highest vacancy rate since the government's Energy Information
Administration began its bi-annual survey of tank farm capacity in 2010.
Some said the convergence was not sustainable because the narrowed
arbitrage attracted foreign imports.
In the case of Brent, some the world's biggest traders booked
supertankers to store at least 25 million barrels at sea in recent days in
hopes of profiting later if prices recover.
Outlook
We expect crude oil prices likely to trade on negative note on the back of
increasing supply and decreasing demand is likely to keep crude oil
prices under pressure.
Technical Outlook
Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Jan Sell @ R1 2770 2800 2826 2850 2880
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Natural Gas
U.S. natural gas futures gained over 5 percent on Tuesday, erasing a 5
percent loss on Monday, on forecasts for heightened demand due to
cooler temperatures over the next two weeks.
The latest weather models for the lower 48 U.S. states called for
slightly colder but near-normal temperatures over the next two weeks,
with an expected 462 heating degree days (HDD).
Outlook
We expect Natural gas prices to trade on negative note on the back of
slightly below normal temperature forecast over the next few days.
Technical Outlook
Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Jan Sell @ R1 174 177 180.7 182 186
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
4. Page 4
Commodity Daily
LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel
Current Stock
191325 215825 667700 4149300 416436
Change
3925 -4325 -3175 -7750 1704
% Change
2.09% -1.96% -0.47% -0.19% 0.41%
Base Metals
Copper fell further below $6,000 on Tuesday to its weakest level in
more than five years as oil price declines spurred selling by hedge
funds in China, despite signs of physical demand for metal there.
Worries about lacklustre growth in the global economy and the
rout in oil hurt other metals on the London Metal Exchange too,
with lead falling to a 30-month low while aluminium and zinc fell
to their lowest in nearly eight and seven months respectively.
As copper sank towards $6,000, traders had been eyeing two big
put option trades, at that level and at $5,500, which they feared
could accelerate the market's longest rout in years.
China's December trade data beat expectations, as demand from a
stronger U.S. economy helped offset weakness in Europe and
Japan while Chinese bargain-shopping in commodities markets put
a floor under sliding imports.
Higher aluminium output from China was highlighted in trade data
which showed exports of 540,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium
and aluminium products in December, up from November's
390,000.
Outlook
We expect base metal prices to trade mostly on negative note on
the back of fears of slowdown in China.
Technical Outlook
Jan/Feb Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Copper Sell @ R1 355 360 364.9 368 370
Nickel Sell @ R1 890 900 905.1 910 920
Alum Sell @ R1 109 110 110.8 111 112
Lead Sell @ R1 111 112 112.7 113.4 114.5
Zinc Sell @ R1 127 128 129.0 130 131
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
5. Page 5
Commodity Daily
DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT
Wed, Jan 14 Tentative EUR European Court of Justice Ruling High
3:30pm EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.00% 0.10% Medium
7:00pm US Core Retail Sales m/m 0.10% 0.50% High
7:00pm US Retail Sales m/m 0.20% 0.70% High
7:00pm US Import Prices m/m -2.70% -1.50% Medium
8:30pm US Business Inventories m/m 0.20% 0.20% Medium
9:00pm US Crude Oil Inventories -3.1M Medium
For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000
Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal
AVP
ashish.shah@sushilfinance.com
Sr. Research Analyst
tejas.nikhar@sushilfinance.com
Research Analyst
mohit.agarwal@sushilfinance.com
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