12. ตารางที่ 1. ปจจัยที่สําคัญตอการเคลื่อนไหวของ USD/THB
USD/THB ปรับลดลง USD/THB ปรับสูงขึ้น
The US economy is still floundering. With unemployment very Bureaucracy of the EU system limits the speed of how European
elevated at 9%+, economic stimulus no doubt is needed authorities can effectively respond and resolve the crisis and
Fiscal constraints means that stimulus in the form of allows the Eurozone to implode into a full fledge sovereign
expansionary fiscal policy is not an option domino defaults and bank runs / closures
…hence QE3, 4, …. is still needed…..meaning the Fed will Risk aversion kicks in and investors further reduced investment
be printing more US dollars to monetize and reduce their positions in all sorts of risk asset classes including emerging
indebtedness markets equities and bonds
The European authorities, despite having demonstrated Higher risk perception of the EUR will prompt a shift of reserves
shortcoming of leadership, solidarity and efficiency in dealing away from the 17 nation currency (market share of 27%) and
with the sovereign debt / banking crisis, has been able to towards the US dollar (market share of 60%)
prevent or postpone a full blown crisis thus far The Fed is contented with just the 2011 version of “Operation
China proceeds with CNY appreciation. This allows regional Twist” for the time being. This means that the Fed will not
currencies including the Thai baht to appreciate as well expand its balance sheet and slows down the pace of US dollar
without significant implications on competitiveness printing i.e. M1 money supply
Thai baht remains undervalued e.g. the Economist Big Mac The floods have severely impaired Thailand’s ability to export
index estimates Thai baht is 42.3% undervalued relative to while expectations for reconstruction suggest a higher capital
the US dollar. import bill. The Bank of Thailand now foresees the current
account shifting to a deficit of USD 1.7bn instead of previous
estimates of USD 6.1 bn surplus
…in conjunction, we now expect the Bank of Thailand to cut rates
by 50bps at it next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting.
This reduces the attractiveness of the long THB / short USD
trades.
Source: KBank Source: KBank
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