On Friday 15th November, the National Enterprise Network was joined by almost 230 delegates at its annual conference at the British Library in London for an event to celebrate the work of enterprise support organisations and the results they achieve for business start-ups and established small businesses across the country. Sponsored by Barclays, the National Enterprise Network conference has run for over twenty years to raise awareness of and encourage discussion in the enterprise support sector. An excellent array of speakers created an insightful and thought provoking programme – with direct contributions form key Government spokespeople, leaders in related fields and successful entrepreneurs. Missed it? Check out Storify - http://storify.com/NatEntNet/2013-national-enterprise-network-conference

2. Paul McEldon
NEN Chairman
Welcome and introductions

5. Sue Hayes
Managing Director, Barclays Business Banking
Headline sponsor’s address

6. The Rt Hon Lord Young
Prime Minister’s Adviser on Enterprise
Keynote speaker

7. Frances Brindle
Director of Audiences, British Library

8. The Rt Hon Michael Fallon MP
Minister of State for Business and Energy
Ministerial address

9. Refreshments and networking break

11. Andrew Devenport
CEO, The Prince’s Youth Business International (YBI)

12. Why networks are important
Andrew Devenport, Chief Executive,

13. YBI – a global network
France, Israel, Italy,
Netherlands, Poland, Russia,
Serbia, Spain, Sweden,
Ukraine, UK
Canada
, Barbados
Belize
Dominica,
Jamaica,
Trinidad
& Tobago
Argentina,
Brazil, Chile,
Paraguay,
Peru,
Uruguay
Jordan, Saudi
Arabia, Syria,
Tunisia
Kenya,
Nigeria,
Uganda
Bangladesh,
Bhutan,
Mongolia
China,
Hong Kong,
Singapore
India,
Sri
Lanka
Australia
39 countries, locally rooted and locally led
Shared values, shared purpose, shared approach

14. The power of a
network

15. Global
Entrepreneurship
Week 2013
We want current and aspiring
entrepreneurs to take a step
forward in their plans –
whether that’s starting a
business, seizing a new
opportunity or finding out
more about careers
in enterprise.
www.gew.org.uk
#GEWfwd

16. Real life entrepreneurs

17. Rekha Mehr
Business owner: Pistachio Rose
www.pistachiorose.co.uk
@pistachiorose / @rekhamehr

18. Mark Earnden
Business owner: Mark Earnden
www.markearnden.com
@markearnden

19. Phil Pethybridge
Business owner: Neon Street and Your Music Business
www.neonstreet.net / www.yourmusicbusiness.co.uk
@ppethybridge / @neonstreet / @ymbuk

20. Phil Pethybridge
Industry: ‘Build audiences
and maximise income’
Education: 'Support
young musicians to
develop sustainable
careers’

22. Real life entrepreneurs
Q&A

23. Lunch and networking

25. Annual General Meeting
NEN Members only

27. Justin Urquhart-Stewart
Co founder, Seven Investment Management

28. NATIONAL
•ENTERPRISE
•NETWORK
NOVEMBER 2013

29. GLOBAL GROWTH •EFFECT
•ON UK?
NOVEMBER 2013

30. GREEN SHOOTS
•OR ADVANCED
•MOULD
30

31. Green Shoots or Advanced Mould?
31

32. REAL GROWTH...
Consensus forecasts for Real Global GDP growth
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.8%
2.6%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
2013
2014
Source: FT
November 13
32

33. THE TAPIR & THE PANDA
Vs.
33

34. BUT COMING OFF THE
STIMULANTS....

35. ‘PRO-GROWTH’ POLICIES: QE
SOURCE: MACROBOND
CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEETS
35

36. USA - HOW TO KICK THE CAN......
36

38. UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF”
PUT IN BETTER PERSPECTIVE
 U.S. Tax Revenue:
$2,170,000,000,000
 Fed Budget:
$3,820,000,000,000
 New debt:
$1,650,000,000,000
 National debt:
$16,699,000,000,000
 Recent Budget cuts: $38,500,000,000

39. UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF”
NOW LET’S REMOVE EIGHT ZEROS & PRETEND IT’S A HOUSEHOLD BUDGET...
 Annual Family Income:
$21,700
 Money the family spent:
$38,200
 New debt on the Credit Card:
$16,500
 Outstanding Balance on that Card: $166,990
 Total Budget cuts so far:
$38.5

40. USA
Growth Easing?
Employment rising slowly
Corporate Earnings
Peak
Fiscal Fudge &
Sequester
Housing improving
Lower Cost Fuels

41. GAME CHANGER?

42. US DEFICIT REDUCTION
42

43. A DIVIDED VIEW – Can He Do It?

44. EUROZONE
The Future of the
Euro
ECB
buying bonds
Austerity & Growth?
German election?
A decade ago
12% umplymt
Company Valuations
Low Confidence

45. MERKEL’S DIRECTION FOR
CYPRUS
45

46. EUROPE – EMERGENCY OVER?
46

47. FRANCE AND GERMANY - A UNITED APPROACH?
47

48. Ezone Current A/c balances
November 13
“For the use of authorised intermediaries
only. This document must not be
distributed to retail clients.” See notes on
48

49. UNIT LABOUR COST DIVERGENCE REVERSING

50. GERMANY NEEDS EUROPE
•Exports 40% to EuroZone, 31% to rest of Europe, 6% to China and 7% to USA!
SOURCE: MACROBOND
50

51. EUROPE – WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY?
SOURCE: BANK CREDIT ANALYST
51

52. GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
IN THE COURSE OF 2013 & 2104

53. IS THE EURO WEAK?!
GBP
USD
53

54. UK
Sustainable Growth?
Fixing the Banking
system
No Power &
Transport Strategy
Debt & Deficit
Tax Reform?
World’s
8th Largest
Manufacturer &...

55. Confident in our Leaders?
55

56. Break Up & Float or Float & Break Up
56

57. UK PMI SERVICES
SOURCE:
57

58. UK NEGATIVES
Real Wage growth still negative
SOURCE:
58

59. UNDERSTANDING our debt
 Annual Family Income:
£612
 Money the family spent:
£720
 New debt on the Credit Card:
£108
 Outstanding Balance on that Card: £1,153
 Total Budget cuts so far:
£35

60. UK ISSUES
 “Re-shoring” – Noodles
 Cars more exports than domestic production
 Steel
• Blast furnaces
• Top end Sheffield steel
 10th largest exporter
 Non EU exports now higher than EU

61. DAMAGED
•NOT
•DOOMED
61

62. GOVERNMENT DEFICIT
UK ANNUAL GOVERNMENT BORROWING
2011 = £94 billion
SOURCE: DATASTREAM

63. UK GROWING EMPLOYMENT 91.8%
Full-time
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
Part-time
Total

64. UK HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO GDP
SOURCE: MACROBOND
64

65. What That Means?
 We each owe:
 For each employed person
 Interest per household:
2 taxes?
VAT £98bn
Income/NI £253bn
£17,603
£38,736
£1,921

66. UK – DAMAGED NOT DOOMED!
 A very British attitude! vs How others see us
 Unemployment improving
 Retail Sales
 Housing
– Deficit 11% to 8% 2011/12
– Corporate cash £750bn
– Co. Confidence index 62.4 – 66.1
– Employment
– Investment

67. DYNAMIC ACTIONS?



Tax modernisation – 14,000 pages
Stamp Duty?
3/5 Year Start Up Holiday?
– National insurance
– Employment
– Investment relief
– Infrastructure Projects & Bonds
– House building
– Peer To Peer Lending Initiatives

68. THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD
...the Bank of England concurs:
INFLATION LIKELY TO STAY LOW IN THE MID-TERM
SOURCE: BANK OF ENGLAND
68

69. JAPAN
Islands Dispute
Trade Turnaround
Debt 220%+ of GDP
New Premier
Abe - nomics
Yen Weakness
Nappy Sales

70. JAPAN REFLATION
Japan Core inflation
SOURCE;: REUTERS
70

71. BROKEN BRICS?
China
Change of Life
Brazil
Valuations?
India
flat
Russia
Rule of law?
South Africa
Political issues
Turkey
On the Cusp

72. THE NEW LEADERSHIP

73. A SOUTH CHINA SEA SORE

74. SLOWING GROWTH IN EM
EM GDP GROWTH
Has the West’s “Get Out of Jail Free” card finally vanished?
SOURCE: IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SEPTEMBER 2013

75. TAIL RISKS
Renewed
Eurozone panic
Independence
- Impact on gilts &
Sterling
US debt ceiling /
default
Japan debt crisis
Major conflict
Chinese credit
November 13
“For the use of authorised intermediaries only. This document
must not be distributed to retail clients.”
75

76. KEY RISKS TO THE VIEW
EUROZONE PROGRESS?
CHINA CHANGE of LIFE
UK SULLEN GROWTH
US DEBT, DEFICIT & DEMAND

77. YOU ARE NEEDED NOW

78. THANK YOU
JUSTIN A URQUHART STEWART

79. Dr Nicola Millard
Customer Experience Futurologist, BT

80. Paul McEldon
NEN Chairman
Closing the 2013 Conference

81. Thank you for your participation today –
please join us for networking drinks!