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Paul McEldon
NEN Chairman

Welcome and introductions
Sue Hayes
Managing Director, Barclays Business Banking

Headline sponsor’s address
The Rt Hon Lord Young
Prime Minister’s Adviser on Enterprise

Keynote speaker
Frances Brindle
Director of Audiences, British Library
The Rt Hon Michael Fallon MP
Minister of State for Business and Energy

Ministerial address
Refreshments and networking break
Andrew Devenport
CEO, The Prince’s Youth Business International (YBI)
Why networks are important

Andrew Devenport, Chief Executive,
YBI – a global network
France, Israel, Italy,
Netherlands, Poland, Russia,
Serbia, Spain, Sweden,
Ukraine, UK
Canada
, Barbados

Belize
Dominica,
Jamaica,
Trinidad
& Tobago

Argentina,
Brazil, Chile,
Paraguay,
Peru,
Uruguay

Jordan, Saudi
Arabia, Syria,
Tunisia

Kenya,
Nigeria,
Uganda

Bangladesh,
Bhutan,
Mongolia

China,
Hong Kong,
Singapore

India,
Sri
Lanka

Australia

39 countries, locally rooted and locally led
Shared values, shared purpose, shared approach
The power of a
network
Global
Entrepreneurship
Week 2013
We want current and aspiring
entrepreneurs to take a step
forward in their plans –
whether that’s starting a
business, seizing a new
opportunity or finding out
more about careers
in enterprise.
www.gew.org.uk
#GEWfwd
Real life entrepreneurs
Rekha Mehr
Business owner: Pistachio Rose

www.pistachiorose.co.uk
@pistachiorose / @rekhamehr
Mark Earnden
Business owner: Mark Earnden

www.markearnden.com
@markearnden
Phil Pethybridge
Business owner: Neon Street and Your Music Business
www.neonstreet.net / www.yourmusicbusiness.co.uk
@ppethybridge / @neonstreet / @ymbuk
Phil Pethybridge
Industry: ‘Build audiences
and maximise income’
Education: 'Support
young musicians to
develop sustainable
careers’
Real life entrepreneurs
Q&A
Lunch and networking
Annual General Meeting
NEN Members only
Justin Urquhart-Stewart
Co founder, Seven Investment Management
NATIONAL

•ENTERPRISE
•NETWORK
NOVEMBER 2013
GLOBAL GROWTH •EFFECT
•ON UK?
NOVEMBER 2013
GREEN SHOOTS
•OR ADVANCED
•MOULD
30
Green Shoots or Advanced Mould?

31
REAL GROWTH...
Consensus forecasts for Real Global GDP growth
3.4%
3.2%

3.0%
2.8%

2.6%
2.4%
2.2%

2.0%

2013

2014

Source: FT

November 13

32
THE TAPIR & THE PANDA

Vs.

33
BUT COMING OFF THE
STIMULANTS....
‘PRO-GROWTH’ POLICIES: QE

SOURCE: MACROBOND
CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEETS
35
USA - HOW TO KICK THE CAN......

36
UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF”
PUT IN BETTER PERSPECTIVE

 U.S. Tax Revenue:
$2,170,000,000,000
 Fed Budget:
$3,820,000,000,000
 New debt:
$1,650,000,000,000
 National debt:
$16,699,000,000,000
 Recent Budget cuts: $38,500,000,000
UNDERSTANDING THE “FISCAL CLIFF”
NOW LET’S REMOVE EIGHT ZEROS & PRETEND IT’S A HOUSEHOLD BUDGET...

 Annual Family Income:
$21,700
 Money the family spent:
$38,200
 New debt on the Credit Card:
$16,500
 Outstanding Balance on that Card: $166,990
 Total Budget cuts so far:
$38.5
USA
Growth Easing?

Employment rising slowly

Corporate Earnings
Peak

Fiscal Fudge &
Sequester

Housing improving

Lower Cost Fuels
GAME CHANGER?
US DEFICIT REDUCTION

42
A DIVIDED VIEW – Can He Do It?
EUROZONE
The Future of the
Euro

ECB
buying bonds

Austerity & Growth?

German election?
A decade ago
12% umplymt

Company Valuations

Low Confidence
MERKEL’S DIRECTION FOR
CYPRUS

45
EUROPE – EMERGENCY OVER?

46
FRANCE AND GERMANY - A UNITED APPROACH?

47
Ezone Current A/c balances

November 13

“For the use of authorised intermediaries
only. This document must not be
distributed to retail clients.” See notes on

48
UNIT LABOUR COST DIVERGENCE REVERSING
GERMANY NEEDS EUROPE

•Exports 40% to EuroZone, 31% to rest of Europe, 6% to China and 7% to USA!
SOURCE: MACROBOND

50
EUROPE – WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY?

SOURCE: BANK CREDIT ANALYST

51
GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
IN THE COURSE OF 2013 & 2104
IS THE EURO WEAK?!

GBP

USD

53
UK
Sustainable Growth?

Fixing the Banking
system

No Power &
Transport Strategy

Debt & Deficit

Tax Reform?

World’s
8th Largest
Manufacturer &...
Confident in our Leaders?

55
Break Up & Float or Float & Break Up

56
UK PMI SERVICES

SOURCE:

57
UK NEGATIVES
Real Wage growth still negative

SOURCE:

58
UNDERSTANDING our debt
 Annual Family Income:
£612
 Money the family spent:
£720
 New debt on the Credit Card:
£108
 Outstanding Balance on that Card: £1,153
 Total Budget cuts so far:
£35
UK ISSUES

 “Re-shoring” – Noodles
 Cars more exports than domestic production
 Steel
• Blast furnaces
• Top end Sheffield steel

 10th largest exporter
 Non EU exports now higher than EU
DAMAGED
•NOT
•DOOMED
61
GOVERNMENT DEFICIT
UK ANNUAL GOVERNMENT BORROWING
2011 = £94 billion

SOURCE: DATASTREAM
UK GROWING EMPLOYMENT 91.8%
Full-time
200
150
100
50
0

-50
-100
-150
-200
-250

Part-time

Total
UK HOUSEHOLD DEBT TO GDP

SOURCE: MACROBOND

64
What That Means?
 We each owe:
 For each employed person
 Interest per household:
2 taxes?
VAT £98bn
Income/NI £253bn

£17,603

£38,736
£1,921
UK – DAMAGED NOT DOOMED!
 A very British attitude! vs How others see us
 Unemployment improving
 Retail Sales
 Housing
– Deficit 11% to 8% 2011/12
– Corporate cash £750bn
– Co. Confidence index 62.4 – 66.1
– Employment
– Investment
DYNAMIC ACTIONS?




Tax modernisation – 14,000 pages
Stamp Duty?
3/5 Year Start Up Holiday?

– National insurance
– Employment
– Investment relief
– Infrastructure Projects & Bonds
– House building
– Peer To Peer Lending Initiatives
THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD
...the Bank of England concurs:

INFLATION LIKELY TO STAY LOW IN THE MID-TERM

SOURCE: BANK OF ENGLAND

68
JAPAN
Islands Dispute

Trade Turnaround

Debt 220%+ of GDP

New Premier
Abe - nomics

Yen Weakness

Nappy Sales
JAPAN REFLATION
Japan Core inflation

SOURCE;: REUTERS

70
BROKEN BRICS?
China
Change of Life

Brazil
Valuations?

India
flat

Russia
Rule of law?

South Africa
Political issues

Turkey
On the Cusp
THE NEW LEADERSHIP
A SOUTH CHINA SEA SORE
SLOWING GROWTH IN EM
EM GDP GROWTH

Has the West’s “Get Out of Jail Free” card finally vanished?
SOURCE: IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SEPTEMBER 2013
TAIL RISKS
Renewed
Eurozone panic

Independence
- Impact on gilts &
Sterling

US debt ceiling /
default

Japan debt crisis
Major conflict
Chinese credit

November 13

“For the use of authorised intermediaries only. This document
must not be distributed to retail clients.”

75
KEY RISKS TO THE VIEW
EUROZONE PROGRESS?

CHINA CHANGE of LIFE
UK SULLEN GROWTH
US DEBT, DEFICIT & DEMAND
YOU ARE NEEDED NOW
THANK YOU
JUSTIN A URQUHART STEWART
Dr Nicola Millard
Customer Experience Futurologist, BT
Paul McEldon
NEN Chairman

Closing the 2013 Conference
Thank you for your participation today –
please join us for networking drinks!
National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference

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National Enterprise Network 2013 Conference