2. Map showing the study Area
• Increase of Temperature
•Increase of Rainfall
•Sea Level Rise
•Enhanced Tropical Cyclone
•River Floods and Flash
Floods
•Erosion
• Enhanced Tidal Inundation
and Storm Surges
•Wind Action
•Damages to
infrastructure
•Agriculture
•Industry
•Housing sector
•Livelihood
• Health and Sanitation
• Environment &
Ecology
•Salinity
•Water logging
•Etc.
3. The following work has been performed for
climate change current and future
• Guidance on climate change and Sea level Rise
• Guidance on Climate resilient slope management
• Climate Change Analysis with guidance for
incorporating climate change to develop climate
resilient infrastructure
• Climate Change Notes for Appraisal Reports on
Regional Basis
•Developed Training modules for training of the
Engineers and relevant stakeholders in English and
Bangla
4. Overview of Climate Baseline for the study area
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Temperature(o
C)
0
1
2
3
Standarddeviation(
o
C)
Mean Tmax
Mean Tmin
SD Tmax
SD Tmin
0
100
200
300
400
500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Rainfall(mm)
S.D.
CV%
6. Station Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-monsoon
Annua
l
Barisal (1965-2011) -3.13 -7.69 -64.82 5.93 -15.87
Bhola (1966-2010 -5.63 -15.13 -64.89 6.46 -80.55
Patuakhali (1984-
2011)
-1.34 -2.01 138.5 23.79 146.7
Khepupara (1972-
2011)
0.45 1.54 77.51 40.28 119.1
Sea Level
Rise+land
subsidence at
1977-1998 (22
years)
4-6 cm/Decade
The trends of annual rainfall (mm/decade) and sea
level rise (cm/decade) for Barisal region
7. Rainfall
Winter
Pre-
monsoon
Monsoon Post-monsoon Annual
mm/de
cade
% per
decad
e
mm/de
cade
%per
decad
e
mm/deca
de
% per
decade
mm/deca
de
% per
decade
mm/de
cade
% per
decad
e
Khulna 4.5 11.4 3.1 1.1 31.0 2.5 6.0 3.3 44.0 2.5
Satkhira 6.4 15.3 11.1 4.3 24.8 2.1 -3.0 -0.2 39.0 2.3
Mongla -25.1 -64.7 -42.5 -15.3 132.3 9.4 18.0 8.2 83.0 4.3
Sea
Level
Rise at
Hiron
Point
4 cm/decade
Khulna Region
8. Parameters DJF MAM JJA SON Annual
Temperature 1.64 1.50 1.53 1.86 1.75
Rainfall (%) 3.4 4.3 6.3 -2.0 3.2
Sea level Rise+
Land Subsidence
in the south-
central coastal
47 cm
Climate Change Scenario for 20150
For Barisal Region
9. Parameters DJF MAM JJA SON Annual
Temperature 2.33 1.91 1.71 2.0 2.33
Rainfall (%) -7.4 14.6 10.2 9.5 5.6
Sea level
Rise+ Land
Subsidence in
the south-
central coastal
47 cm
Climate Projection in Khulna Region
10. Performed work
on Climate model
• Research on best fit model has been
done on the three districts namely
Khulna, Patuakhali, Satkhira.
• After proper calibration and
validation of two downscaling
models SDSM and LARS-WG, LARS-
WG was found to be best suited for
the study area for future prediction
of rainfall.
• Future prediction on rainfall has
been done for the time period 2020’s
• Several field visits to water logged
area in Satkhira and Khulna district
have been made to survey the
baseline condition of the area.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
PercentageChnge(mm)
Khulna
Patuakhali
Satkhira
Seasonal percentage Change from baseline to 2020’s by LARS-WG
11. Climate Issues and General Adaptation Options
Climate Issues General Adaptation Options
Increase of
temperature
Take appropriate measures to meet enhanced water
demand due to higher evaporation
Sea level rise, storm
and surges, enhanced
temperature,
monsoon flooding and
water logging and
enhanced salinity
Increased Quality Control on construction
Using suitable materials
Raising the level of the road
Minor road realignmlassent
Increasing maintenance effectiveness
Including additional longitudinal and transverse
drainage systems
Improved cross drainage
Increase in
precipitation
Additional drainage capacity
Protection of earthworks and road slopes against
direct rain and wave impact. The plantation of
suitable grass, shrubs and plants are suggested.
Increase water capture and storage system
12. Climate Issues General Adaptation Options
Increase in wind
strength
Appropriate wind-risk vegetation on road verges
Modifying the design of supports and anchorages
for buildings
Climate Mitigation Increase plantation for improving ecological
balance and livelihood development.
The renewable energy sources should be
deployed.
Improved waste management
Water supply and
sanitation
The growth Centers should have adequate water-
supply and sanitation arrangements.
Increase rain water harvesting and storage system
13. Future Plan of Work on Climate Resilience
• Prepare climate scenarios of higher resolution preferably on
District basis
• Further research of climate resilience
• Generate information on old and indigenous way of
adaptation; current technologies and new ways of adaptation;
Community based adaptations;
• Incorporation of Gender and Livelihood aspects in climate
change
• Study other climate Resilient projects and adaptation policies
and options followed in those projects
14. • Prepare 60 years cyclone impact history; Damage
Assessment of a few recent cyclones and prepare zones
describing the areas with different damage levels.
•Preparation of Future Projections of Tropical Cyclone
intensity for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 based on Sea Surface
Temperatures
• Assess the achieved Resilience:
o Assess the impact of intervention of climate change;
o Preparation of monitoring sheet /tools for this purpose
• Climate Change Knowledge Management
15. Future work plan on climate modeling
• Completion of the current work to finish the
prediction of future rainfall in the project area .
• Selection of pilot projects to survey the baseline for
the climate change scenario.
• Prediction of flood level and terrain modeling of the
project area.
• Preparation of inundated area for baseline survey.
• Modeling of future inundation and preparation of
flood risk map with future prediction.
