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Let’s talk about
       EV

     Arthur Wang
     11/17/2012
About Me




Presented by Arthur Wang        1   11/17/12
WHY?




Presented by Arthur Wang          2   11/17/12
Global Oil & Gas Import       3
   Dependency




Unconventional gas will
account for about half of
the increase in global gas
production to 2035, with
most of this coming from
the United
States, Australia and
China, according to IEA.

Presented by Arthur Wang     11/17/12
4
   US Oil & Gas Production




Presented by Arthur Wang     11/17/12
5
   Oil Price Factor




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
Our Options?




Presented by Arthur Wang     6   11/17/12
7
   Many Options Exist




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
New Energy Vehicle          8
   Required Components




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
The EV Revolution has       9
   begun!




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
10
   EVs are Ready for Primetime!


    Tesla’s Big Win Proves EVs Are Ready for
    Primetime
    “Electric vehicles have hit the tipping point of mainstream acceptance, and you naysayers just lost your last reason for
    hating the technology.

    MotorTrend magazine’s unanimous decision to name the Tesla Model S its car of the year is more than a big moment for
    Tesla Motors. It’s a big moment for electric vehicles and, more importantly, internal combustion. The award follows similar
    nods from Automobile and Yahoo. (Yes, Yahoo does cars.) That only underscores just how good the Model S is, and how
    solid its underlying technology is. “Source: www.wired.com, 11/13/2012 By Damon Lavrinc




Presented by Arthur Wang                                                                                                       11/17/12
11
   EV Market Players




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
3rd Party Forecast of EV          12
   Fleets in Different Regions




Forecasts are almost
useless – they vary
widely
- Range from 2M to over
20M vehicles in 2020



Presented by Arthur Wang         11/17/12
13
   Supply Forecasts




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
Worldwide EV OEMs           14
   Production Capacity




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
Markets Rarely Grow This       15
   Way




Presented by Arthur Wang      11/17/12
16
    Market Constraints




                            Total Market Size
                            Substitutability
                            Access to Infrastructure
                            Income Issues
                            Behavioral Issues

    Source: GTM Research




Presented by Arthur Wang                                11/17/12
17
   EV Growth

                           DRIVERS                  DETERRENTS



       Efficiency                      Range Anxiety

       Cost Learning Curve             Purchase Price

       Success of Hybrids              Political Opposition

       Lower Operating Cost            Utilities Resistance

       Climate Risks                   Multi-Tenant Living

       Health & Clean Air              Infrastructure




Presented by Arthur Wang                                         11/17/12
18
   Range Anxiety

     Declining Marginal Value of More Batteries – a very expensive way to
      avoid Range Anxiety




Presented by Arthur Wang                                                     11/17/12
COST




Presented by Arthur Wang          19   11/17/12
Key Drivers of EV Operating                                               20
   Costs




    Capital, Operating Costs, Fuel, Electricity, Performance, Use, and
    Financing all impact TCO & will change over time.

Presented by Arthur Wang                                                 11/17/12
21
   Battery Cycle Costs




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
22
   EV Fuel Saving per Gallon




Presented by Arthur Wang       11/17/12
Variable Cost of ICEs vs       23
   BEVs in USA




Presented by Arthur Wang      11/17/12
24
   Li-ion Cost Assumption




Presented by Arthur Wang    11/17/12
25
   Battery Cost Improvement




Presented by Arthur Wang      11/17/12
26
   EV Battery Market




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
27
   Shakeout

                           Electric Car Battery Maker A123 Systems Files
                           Bankruptcy




Presented by Arthur Wang                                               11/17/12
Technology




Presented by Arthur Wang       28   11/17/12
29
    EV Battery Technology Trend

       Key: Lower Cost ($), Higher             High Power Density Cell: 可有效提升車輛
                                                 動力,這類電池適用於混合動力車,僅需短時
        Energy (Wh) Density, Higher              間的高功率輸出;
        Power (W) Density
                                                High Energy Density Cell: 有助延長電動車
       Target:                                  續航力,特別適用於純電動車,需要較高的續
                                                 航力,但對於電池功率較不要求;
           Battery pack cost < 25% of
            vehicle cost to enable a            而兼具高 密度與高能量的電池芯則適用於
            healthy market growth.               插電式混合動力車,因為這類車款必須兼具
                                                 高性能與高續航力。
           Increase battery cells’ energy
            & power density.




Presented by Arthur Wang                                                        11/17/12
Vehicle Powertrain                                                                30
   Architecture
                                                             IP|VDS|HMI



                                                              ABS|ESP
                                                      VCU

                               PTC                            AIRBAG

                           e-Compressor



                   BMS                              PCU
                     Battery                                              Gear
                                          HVJB         M/D     Motor
                      Pack                                                Box



                           ON BOADRD
                                                 DC/DC
                            CHARGER

                            EVSE/AC              12V SLA
                                                                  CAN
                           OFF BOARD                              HV
                            CHARGER
                            EVSE/DC

Presented by Arthur Wang                                                         11/17/12
31
   Battery Management System




Presented by Arthur Wang       11/17/12
32
   Safety




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
33
   Grid & Charging




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
34
   V2G




Presented by Arthur Wang   11/17/12
Thank You!

                                             Arthur Wang
                                arthurwangjob@gmail.com




Presented by Arthur Wang   35                              11/17/12

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Let's talk about EV

  • 1. Let’s talk about EV Arthur Wang 11/17/2012
  • 2. About Me Presented by Arthur Wang 1 11/17/12
  • 3. WHY? Presented by Arthur Wang 2 11/17/12
  • 4. Global Oil & Gas Import 3 Dependency Unconventional gas will account for about half of the increase in global gas production to 2035, with most of this coming from the United States, Australia and China, according to IEA. Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 5. 4 US Oil & Gas Production Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 6. 5 Oil Price Factor Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 7. Our Options? Presented by Arthur Wang 6 11/17/12
  • 8. 7 Many Options Exist Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 9. New Energy Vehicle 8 Required Components Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 10. The EV Revolution has 9 begun! Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 11. 10 EVs are Ready for Primetime! Tesla’s Big Win Proves EVs Are Ready for Primetime “Electric vehicles have hit the tipping point of mainstream acceptance, and you naysayers just lost your last reason for hating the technology. MotorTrend magazine’s unanimous decision to name the Tesla Model S its car of the year is more than a big moment for Tesla Motors. It’s a big moment for electric vehicles and, more importantly, internal combustion. The award follows similar nods from Automobile and Yahoo. (Yes, Yahoo does cars.) That only underscores just how good the Model S is, and how solid its underlying technology is. “Source: www.wired.com, 11/13/2012 By Damon Lavrinc Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 12. 11 EV Market Players Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 13. 3rd Party Forecast of EV 12 Fleets in Different Regions Forecasts are almost useless – they vary widely - Range from 2M to over 20M vehicles in 2020 Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 14. 13 Supply Forecasts Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 15. Worldwide EV OEMs 14 Production Capacity Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 16. Markets Rarely Grow This 15 Way Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 17. 16 Market Constraints  Total Market Size  Substitutability  Access to Infrastructure  Income Issues  Behavioral Issues Source: GTM Research Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 18. 17 EV Growth DRIVERS DETERRENTS  Efficiency  Range Anxiety  Cost Learning Curve  Purchase Price  Success of Hybrids  Political Opposition  Lower Operating Cost  Utilities Resistance  Climate Risks  Multi-Tenant Living  Health & Clean Air  Infrastructure Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 19. 18 Range Anxiety  Declining Marginal Value of More Batteries – a very expensive way to avoid Range Anxiety Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 20. COST Presented by Arthur Wang 19 11/17/12
  • 21. Key Drivers of EV Operating 20 Costs Capital, Operating Costs, Fuel, Electricity, Performance, Use, and Financing all impact TCO & will change over time. Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 22. 21 Battery Cycle Costs Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 23. 22 EV Fuel Saving per Gallon Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 24. Variable Cost of ICEs vs 23 BEVs in USA Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 25. 24 Li-ion Cost Assumption Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 26. 25 Battery Cost Improvement Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 27. 26 EV Battery Market Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 28. 27 Shakeout Electric Car Battery Maker A123 Systems Files Bankruptcy Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 29. Technology Presented by Arthur Wang 28 11/17/12
  • 30. 29 EV Battery Technology Trend  Key: Lower Cost ($), Higher  High Power Density Cell: 可有效提升車輛 動力,這類電池適用於混合動力車,僅需短時 Energy (Wh) Density, Higher 間的高功率輸出; Power (W) Density  High Energy Density Cell: 有助延長電動車  Target: 續航力,特別適用於純電動車,需要較高的續 航力,但對於電池功率較不要求;  Battery pack cost < 25% of vehicle cost to enable a  而兼具高 密度與高能量的電池芯則適用於 healthy market growth. 插電式混合動力車,因為這類車款必須兼具 高性能與高續航力。  Increase battery cells’ energy & power density. Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 31. Vehicle Powertrain 30 Architecture IP|VDS|HMI ABS|ESP VCU PTC AIRBAG e-Compressor BMS PCU Battery Gear HVJB M/D Motor Pack Box ON BOADRD DC/DC CHARGER EVSE/AC 12V SLA CAN OFF BOARD HV CHARGER EVSE/DC Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 32. 31 Battery Management System Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 33. 32 Safety Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 34. 33 Grid & Charging Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 35. 34 V2G Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
  • 36. Thank You! Arthur Wang arthurwangjob@gmail.com Presented by Arthur Wang 35 11/17/12