HLEG thematic workshop on Measurement of Well Being and Development in Africa, 12-14 November 2015, Durban, South Africa, More information at: www.oecd.org/statistics/measuring-economic-social-progress
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HLEG thematic workshop on Measurement of Well Being and Development in Africa, Sabina Alkire
1. Multidimensional Poverty in Sub-
Saharan Africa: Measurement and
Relevance
Sabina Alkire, OPHI, U of Oxford and GWU
Beyond GDP Conference, Durban South Africa, Nov 2015
2. Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
- acute poverty in developing countries -
1. MPI Methodology
2. MPI 2015
3. Overview of Results in SSA
4. MPI in the Sustainable Development Goals
5. Order of Aggregation
Income Education Shelter Water
1. D ND ND ND
2. ND D ND ND
3. ND ND D ND
4. ND ND ND D
Income Education Shelter Water
1. ND ND ND ND
2. ND ND ND ND
3. ND ND ND ND
4. D D D D
Joint Distribution I Joint Distribution II
ND: Not Deprived
D: Deprived
6. Order of Aggregation
Income Education Shelter Water
1. D ND ND ND
2. ND D ND ND
3. ND ND D ND
4. ND ND ND D
Income Education Shelter Water
1. ND ND ND ND
2. ND ND ND ND
3. ND ND ND ND
4. D D D D
Joint Distribution I Joint Distribution II
ND: Not Deprived
D: Deprived
7. Who is poor?
A person who is deprived in more than
1/3 of the weighted indicators is MPI
poor.
Nathalie is deprived in 2/3 of indicators.
She is MPI poor.
8. What is the MPI?
• The MPI (like FGT-1) is the product of two components:
1) Incidence ~ the percentage of people who are poor, or
the headcount ratio H.
2) Intensity of people’s deprivation ~ the average share of
dimensions in which disadvantaged people are deprived A.
The global MPI uses the Alkire & Foster (2011) methodology.
The structure is unchanged since 2010.
MPI = H × A
9. Literature Review, AF Methodology,
Measurement Design, Robustness, Statistics,
Analysis:
multidimensionalpoverty.org
11. What does the Global MPI add to a dashboard?
A Dashboard: Across 101 countries and 5.2 billion people:
• 53.2% of the considered population lack clean cooking fuel
• 40.3% lack adequate sanitation by MDG definitions
• 26.5% live in houses where floors are dirt, sand, or natural
• 26.5% have someone in their household who is undernourished
• 21.8% lack electricity
• 17.0% of people live in houses where a child has died
• 16.3% lack safe water by MDG definitions
• 14.5% live in a household where a child is not attending school
up to class 8.
• 13.6% live in a household in which no member has completed
five years of schooling.
Totals 13.2 billion
deprivations across
5.2 billion people.
Simple question:
How many people
have more than
one deprivation?
12. Looking Across Dimensions:
Across 5.2 billion people:
• 3.9 billion are deprived in at least one indicator – 75%
• 2.3 billion are deprived in 20% or more of the weighted indicators
• 1.6 billion are deprived in 33% or more of the weighted indicators
• 800 million are deprived in 50% or more of the weighted indicators
- For each of these we can then show how they are poor – the composition.
• 1 billion are deprived in one indicator only – none of the others.
14. MPI 2010-2015: At-a-Glance
• Since 2010: Global MPI estimations for 117 countries
using 217 datasets fielded 2000-2014
• Since 2010: MPI estimations for 1362 sub-national
regions in 100 country-periods
• New Methods: Destitution, Inequality among the poor,
Standard errors, Dynamic analysis
• Data quality: In 2010 we had all 10 indicators for only
60% of countries; now it is 84%. Harmonization better.
• Robustness: More Robust in 2015 than 2010.
14
16. Global MPI 2015: Major Update
2015: Biggest update to date ~ countries & population
• 37 countries: new or updated MPI estimations.
• 2.1 billion people
e.g. 43% of the population covered in Africa, 72% in Arab
States and 82% in East Asia have new MPIs in 2015 – thanks
to DHS and MICS survey data, & PAPFAM.
The 2015 analysis covers 101 countries with data 2005-14.
The countries have a total population of 5.2 billion people,
75% of the world’s population.
(no imputations/extrapolations)
16
17. Global MPI 2015: SSA Data
- The 2015 SS African MPI estimations cover 39 countries,
housing 96% of the people – 812 out of 842 million.
- We have disaggregated data for 391 subnational regions in 37
African countries – all except S Africa and Guinea Bissau.
- In 34 SSA countries, data are from surveys fielded 2010-2014.
- Between 2014 and 2015 OPHI have new or updated
estimations for 30 of the 39 SS African countries.
- All 39 SSA countries have all 10 MPI indicators.
17
18. Population Coverage by Region
MPI 2015:
Covers 5.2 billion people
living in six world regions
MPI countries by Region
Population in MPI
countries (million)
Total Pop in
regions
% Pop
covered
15 Europe and Central Asia 152 492 30.9
12 Arab States 263 352 74.9
18 Latin America & Caribbean 499 588 85
10 East Asia and the Pacific 1889 2041 92.6
7 South Asia 1608 1704 94.3
39 Sub-Saharan Africa 812 842 96.4
Europe and
Central Asia
3%
Latin
America and
Caribbean
10%
East Asia
and the
Pacific
36%
Arab States
5%
South Asia
31%
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
15%
19. 19
Across 101 countries & 5.2 billion people
30% of people are poor
Aggregates
use 2011
population
data
Global MPI
=1.6 billion people
20. 31% of MPI poor people live in Sub-Saharan Africa,
and 54% in South Asia
MPI, H and A are highest in SS Africa
In Sub-Saharan
Africa 61% of
people are MPI
poor; average
intensity is
56%
21. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Europe and
Central Asia
Latin
America and
Caribbean
East Asia
and the
Pacific Arab States South Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Censoredheadcountratiosintheregion:
proportionwhoispooranddeprivedin...
Composition of Poverty by Indicator
Nutrition
Child
Mortality
Years of
Schooling
Attendance
Cooking
Fuel
Sanitation
Water
Electricity
Floor
Assets
H (% MPI
poor people)
22. st Asia and the
Pacific Arab States South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
ty by Indicator
Nutrition
Child Mortality
Years of Schooling
Attendance
Cooking Fuel
Sanitation
Water
Electricity
Floor
Assets
H (% MPI poor
people)
In Sub-Saharan
Africa, on avg
deprivations in
all dimensions
are >25% - LS
highest
27. Nigeria and South Sudan – no relationship?
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AverageIntensityofPoverty(A)
Percentage of People Considered Poor (H)
The size of the bubbles
represent the total
number of MPI poor in
each country
Nigeria
MPI 0.303
H 53.2%
A 56.8%
South Sudan
MPI 0.547
H 91.1%
A 61.2%
28. Nigeria and South Sudan – no relationship?
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AverageIntensityofPoverty(A)
Percentage of People Considered Poor (H)
The size of the bubbles
represent the total
number of MPI poor in
each country
Nigeria has
three regions
with a higher
MPI than South
Sudan.
They have 13.9
million MPI
poor people.
South Sudan has
9.5 million MPI
poor people.
29. Nigeria and South Sudan – no relationship?
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AverageIntensityofPoverty(A)
Percentage of People Considered Poor (H)
The size of the bubbles
represent the total
number of MPI poor in
each country
South Sudan
Is home to 9.5
million MPI poor
people.
Nigeria has more MPI
poor people with the
same intensity as S Sudan.
Nigeria has
three regions
with a higher
MPI than South
Sudan.
They have 13.9
million MPI
poor people.
33. Cameroon
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AverageIntensityofPoverty(A)
Percentage of People Considered Poor (H)
Cameroon - National Level
The size of the bubbles
is a proportional
representation of the total
number of MPI poor in
each country
35. Ethiopia
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AverageIntensityofPoverty(A)
Percentage of People Considered Poor (H)
Ethiopia - National Level
The size of the bubbles
is a proportional
representation of the total
number of MPI poor in
each country
36. Addis Ababa
Affar
Amhara
Dire Dawa
GambelaHarari Oromiya
Somali
Tigray
Ethiopia
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AverageIntensityofPoverty(A)
Percentage of People Considered Poor (H)
Ethiopia- Subnational Decomposition
The size of the bubbles
is a proportional
representation of the total
number of MPI poor in
each country
37. Tanzania
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AverageIntensityofPoverty(A)
Percentage of People Considered Poor (H)
Tanzania - National Level
The size of the bubbles
is a proportional
representation of the total
number of MPI poor in
each country
39. Uganda
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AverageIntensityofPoverty(A)
Percentage of People Considered Poor (H)
Uganda- National Level
The size of the bubbles
is a proportional
representation of the total
number of MPI poor in
each country
40. Central 1
Central 2
East Central
EasternKampala
Karamoja
North
Southwest
West Nile
Western
Uganda
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
AverageIntensityofPoverty(A)
Percentage of People Considered Poor (H)
Uganda - Subnational Decomposition
The size of the bubbles
is a proportional
representation of the total
number of MPI poor in
each country
45. MPI vs. Income poverty for SSA countries
If progress was only measured by reducing income
poverty, the tremendous gains of Rwanda and
Ghana would have been less visible.
49. Relationship between Income Poor
& MPI Poor
12.6%
Income
poor
5.5%
MD
poor
12.6%
5.5%
12.6%
Income
Poor
5.5%
MPI
Poor
1.6
%
50. GLOBAL: MPI ~ $1.90/DAY
NATIONAL: nMPI ~ INCOME
Both useful
51. National MPIs using AF methodology
Chile
Oct 29th 2015 Launch:
Costa Rica &
El Salvador
52. The Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network
Launched in June 2013 at University of Oxford with
President Santos and Amartya Sen:
• 2014: Berlin
• 2015: Colombia
• 2015: Mexico 2017: China
• Includes high level participation in 40+ countries
• Side events at UN General Assembly, UN Stats Com
53. A Global MPI in the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs)
Target 1.2: by 2030, reduce at least by half the
proportion of men, women and children of all ages
living in poverty in all its dimensions according to
national definitions.
‘Green’ Indicators:
1.2.1 – National Income and National MPIs
1.2.2 – MPI
Sixty-Ninth Session of the UN
General Assembly Dec 2014.
(A/RES/69/238)
5. Underlines the need to
better reflect the
multidimensional nature of
development and poverty...
UNSG Synthesis Report Dec 2014:
5.1 Measuring the new dynamics ...
Poverty measures should reflect the
multi-dimensional nature of poverty.
