SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 24
Descargar para leer sin conexión
%DQNLQJ -RXUQDO 9ROXPH  ,VVXH
0DUNHW 5HDFWLRQV WR 7DQJLEOH DQG ,QWDQJLEOH ,QIRUPDWLRQ $ DVH RI
1HSDO
6XGDUVKDQ .DGDULD
)DFXOW ,QVWLWXWH RI %DQNLQJ 0DQDJHPHQW 6WXGLHV .DWKPDQGX
(PDLO VXNDGDULD#JPDLOFRP
$%675$7
)URP WKH SDVW GHFDGHV WKH FDSLWDO PDUNHW KDV EHHQ VXIIHULQJ IURP WKH XQIRUHVHHQ
DQG VXGGHQ HFRQRPLF WXUEXOHQFHV WKDW KDYH EHHQ GLUHFWO RU LQGLUHFWO FRQWULEXWLQJ
WR WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV 7KH VWXG SULPDULO DQDO]HV WKH PDUNHW UHDFWLRQV WR WDQJLEOH
LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW DQG WR H[DPLQH
WKH LQYHVWRUV¶ RSLQLRQV LQ 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW 7KH VDPSOH VL]H LV  VWRFN
LQYHVWRUV DQG WKH UHVSRQVH UDWH LV  SHUFHQW 7KH PDMRU ILQGLQJV RI WKH VWXG DUH
WKH FDSLWDO VWUXFWXUH DQG DYHUDJH SULFLQJ PHWKRG LV RQH IDFWRU WKDW LQIOXHQFH WKH
LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQV QH[W LW LV WKH SROLWLFDO DQG PHGLD FRYHUDJH DQG WKH WKLUG
IDFWRU LV EHOLHI RQ OXFN DQG WKH ILQDQFLDO HGXFDWLRQ )LQDOO WKH IRUWK FRPSRQHQW IRU
VWRFN PDUNHW PRYHPHQW LV WUHQG DQDOVLV 7KXV LW LV FRQFOXGHG WKDW ERWK WKH
WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DUH HVVHQWLDO WR VXFFHHG LQ 1HSDOHVH FDSLWDO
PDUNHW
,1752'87,21
)URP WKH SDVW GHFDGHV WKH FDSLWDO PDUNHW KDV EHHQ VXIIHULQJ IURP WKH XQIRUHVHHQ
DQG VXGGHQ HFRQRPLF WXUEXOHQFHV WKDW KDYH EHHQ GLUHFWO RU LQGLUHFWO FRQWULEXWLQJ
IRU WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV ,GHQWLILQJ WKH IDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ VWRFN UHWXUQV DUH QRW DQ HDV
WDVN IRU WKH ILQDQFLDO HFRQRPLVWV DFDGHPLFLDQV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV )URP WKH
LQFHSWLRQ RI DVVHWV YDOXDWLRQ PRGHO LQ WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU PDQ HIIRUWV KDYH EHHQ
HPSORHG WR LGHQWLI WKHVH IDFWRUV 7KH ZRUN RI 0DUNRZLW]
ZDV EDVHG RQ WKH
VLQJOHSHULRG ZKLFK ZDV IXUWKHU H[WHQGHG WR $03 LQ V DQG H[SODLQV WKH RYHUDOO
PDUNHW SHUIRUPDQFH WKDW DVVXPHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV ,Q VXFFHHGLQJ
SHULRGV QXPHURXV VWXGLHV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG LQ GHYHORSHG DQG GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV
WR H[SORUH WKH IDFWRUV GHWHUPLQLQJ VWRFN UHWXUQV 6RPH HYLGHQFHV GRFXPHQWHG WKDW
DFFRXQWLQJ YDULDEOHV DUH WKH PDMRU VRXUFHV RI YDULDWLRQV ZKHUHDV RWKHU HYLGHQFHV
IRFXVHG RQ RWKHUV 7KH GHPRJUDSKLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG EHKDYLRUDO GLIIHUHQFHV
EHFDPH WKH IRFXV RI WKH VWXG LQ WKH ODWHU SHULRG DIWHU WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI
SVFKRORJ LQ ILQDQFH 0DQ VWXGLHV RQ KXPDQ SVFKRORJ FRQWULEXWH WR LGHQWLI WKH
SRWHQWLDO GLPHQVLRQV IRU VWRFN UHWXUQV $PRQJ WKH RWKHUV (LQKRUQ DQG +RJDUWK
GRFXPHQWHG WKDW SHRSOH KDYH JUHDW FRQILGHQFH LQ WKHLU IDOOLEOH MXGJPHQWV
7KH LVVXH RI RYHUFRQILGHQFH LQ MXGJPHQW ZDV IXUWKHU FRQILUPHG E (LQKRUQ
:LWK WKH EDVH RQ WKHVH HYLGHQFHV WKH JHQHUDO OHDUQLQJ LQ WKH LQYHVWPHQW
FRPPXQLW FDQ EH H[SUHVVHG DV WKH HYHQWV WKDW EXUVWRXW H[SHFWHGO RU
XQH[SHFWHGO WKDW KDYH VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFW RQ LQYHVWRUV¶ PLQGVHW DQG WKDW
LQIRUPDWLRQ SOD WKH LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ LQGLYLGXDO LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQV
$IWHU WKH HYROXWLRQ RI WKH DVVHWV YDOXDWLRQ PRGHOV WKHUH KDV EHHQ WKH FRQVLGHUDEOH
VKLIW RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH WRZDUGV SUHGLFWLQJ UHWXUQV DQG IRUPXODWLQJ WKH IRUHFDVWLQJ
%DQNLQJ -RXUQDO 9ROXPH  ,VVXH
WRROV DQG WHFKQLTXHV %XW WKHUH LV VWLOO D ODFN RI FRQVHQVXV XSRQ VLQJOH PRGHO WRROV
DQG SURFHGXUHV )RU LQVWDQFH )DPD
GLYLGHG WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV LQWR VHOHFWLYLW
DQG ULVN VWRFN UHWXUQV DV FKDQJHV LQ H[SHFWHG IXWXUH GLYLGHQGV RU H[SHFWHG IXWXUH
UHWXUQV DPSEHOO
FDVKIORZ QHZV HIIHFW 9XROWHHQDKR
'DQLHO DQG
7LWPDQ
SURSRVHG WKDW VWRFN UHWXUQ LV D IXQFWLRQ RI WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH
UHWXUQV 7KHVH HPSLULFDO HYLGHQFHV IRFXVHG WRZDUG WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV GHFRPSRVLWLRQ
ZKLFK KHOSV WR LGHQWLI WKH GLPHQVLRQV WKDW H[SODLQ WKH YDULDWLRQ RI UHWXUQV
1RZDGDV VWRFN UHWXUQV IRUHFDVWLQJ EHFDPH D FHQWUDO LVVXHV LQ ILQDQFH DQG
QXPHURXV VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FRQGXFWHG WR VFDQ WKH PDQLIHVWDWLRQV $PLG WKLV WKH
YRODWLOH HFRQRPLF HQYLURQPHQW DOVR GHVHUYHV WKH HIIRUWV RI IRUHFDVWLQJ
,Q EHKDYLRUDO VWXGLHV 'H/RQJ HW DO
GRFXPHQWHG WKH RYHUUHDFWLRQ RI SULFHV
LV GXH WR QHZV SULFH EXEEOHV DQG H[SHFWDWLRQV 6RSKLVWLFDWHG LQYHVWRUV FDQ HDUQ
VXSHULRU UHWXUQV E WDNLQJ DGYDQWDJH RI XQGHUUHDFWLRQ DQG RYHUUHDFWLRQ ZLWKRXW
EHDULQJ H[WUD ULVN %DUEHULV HW DO
DQG DVVHW SULFHV DUH LQIOXHQFHG E LQYHVWRU
RYHUFRQILGHQFH 'DQLHO DQG 7LWPDQ
6XQ DQG :HL
IXUWKHU GRFXPHQWHG
WKDW LQYHVWRUV DUH RYHUO VHQVLWLYH WR LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKHQ WKH QHHG WR
PDNH PRUH VXEMHFWLYH MXGJPHQWV 7KHVH HYLGHQFHV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH LQYHVWPHQW
GHFLVLRQV DUH PRUH WKDQ PRGHOV DQG QXPEHUV VR WKDW WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI ILQDQFLDO
WKHRULHV DQG EHKDYLRU RI WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNHUV KDV EHHQ UDLVHG 2Q WRS RI WKH
EHKDYLRUDO HYLGHQFHV %DQ]
VKRZHG WKH VL]H HIIHFW 6LPLODUO QXPEHU RI
RWKHU VWXGLHV UHYHDOHG WKH H[LVWHQFH RI UHODWLRQVKLS RI VWRFN UHWXUQV ZLWK RWKHU
DFFRXQWLQJ YDULDEOHV )RU LQVWDQFH HDUQLQJV FDVK IORZV GLYLGHQGV UHWXUQV PDUNHW
HTXLW VL]H
ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW OHYHUDJH HWF 6L]H DQG ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW
SURYLGH D VLPSOH DQG SRZHUIXO FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI WKH FURVVVHFWLRQ RI DYHUDJH VWRFN
UHWXUQV )DPD DQG )UHQFK  'DQLHO DQG 7LWPDQ
2Q WKH FRQWUDU
.RWKDUL HW DO
GRFXPHQWHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW
DQG UHWXUQV DUH ZHDNHU DQG OHVV FRQVLVWHQW 7KHVH HYLGHQFHV SURYH WKH FRQWURYHUV
DPRQJ WKH SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV
$SDUW IURP WKH YROXPLQRXV VWXGLHV LQ WKH GHYHORSHG DQG ZHVWHUQ HFRQRP OLPLWHG
VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FRQGXFWHG LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI 1HSDO 7KH SRVLWLYH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ
VWRFN UHWXUQV DQG VL]H ZKHUHDV LQYHUVH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ VWRFN UHWXUQV DQG PDUNHW
WRERRN YDOXH E 3UDGKDQ
7KH SRVLWLYH UHODWLRQ RI VWRFN UHWXUQV ZLWK HDUQLQJ
LHOG DQG VL]H ZKHUHDV QHJDWLYH UHODWLRQ ZLWK ERRNWRPDUNHW UDWLR DQG FDVK IORZ
LHOG DQG ERRNWRPDUNHW YDOXH LV IRXQG WR EH PRUH LQIRUPDWLYH 3UDGKDQ DQG
%DODPSDNL
6LPLODUO .
IRXQG WKH ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW LV WKH
PRVW VLJQLILFDQW GHWHUPLQDQW RI VWRFN UHWXUQV ,Q RWKHU VWXGLHV 'DQJRO
UHYHDOHG WKDW 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW LV LQHIILFLHQW ZKHUHDV 3DQGHD
IRXQG
WKDW WKH 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW LV OHVV HIILFLHQW LQ VKRUW UXQ EXW PRUH HIILFLHQW LQ
ORQJ UXQ 7KXV WKH SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV SURYLGHG WKH HYLGHQFHV WKDW ERRNWRPDUNHW
HTXLW DQG VL]H DUH WKH PDMRU GHWHUPLQDQW RI VWRFN UHWXUQV HYHQ LI WKH HIILFLHQF RI
WKH FDSLWDO PDUNHW LV LQFRQFOXVLYH
6SHFLILFDOO LQ WKH 1HSDOHVH FRQWH[W WKH VWXG LV SULPDULO GHVLJQHG WR ILOO WKH
DEVHQFH RI VLPLODU VWXGLHV 7KH HYLGHQFH RI HIILFLHQF RI VWRFN PDUNHW LV
FRQWURYHUVLDO DQG LQFRQFOXVLYH VRPH HYLGHQFH VXJJHVW WKDW 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW
LV LQHIILFLHQW ZKHUHDV RWKHUV ILQG LW LV LQHIILFLHQW LQ VKRUWUXQ DQG HIILFLHQW LQ ORQJ

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

Irs Investigates Nonprofits
Irs Investigates NonprofitsIrs Investigates Nonprofits
Irs Investigates Nonprofitsestherswmbo
 
Swm govt informasion
Swm govt informasionSwm govt informasion
Swm govt informasionTamil Azhagan
 
Asq 1211 chair Q notes.February 2017
Asq 1211 chair Q notes.February 2017Asq 1211 chair Q notes.February 2017
Asq 1211 chair Q notes.February 2017Rakesh Ramasamy
 
Conseil régional des notaires de rabat catalogue de formation 2014 vf
Conseil régional des notaires de rabat catalogue de formation 2014 vfConseil régional des notaires de rabat catalogue de formation 2014 vf
Conseil régional des notaires de rabat catalogue de formation 2014 vfAllaeddine Makhlouk
 
Fermentasi nira siwalan
Fermentasi nira siwalanFermentasi nira siwalan
Fermentasi nira siwalanDhe Dhewy
 
Neovaskuler glokom
Neovaskuler glokomNeovaskuler glokom
Neovaskuler glokomkebaplik
 
Yyyyyyyyyyy
YyyyyyyyyyyYyyyyyyyyyy
Yyyyyyyyyyytyghj
 
De koningen van de twee millimeter?
De koningen van de twee millimeter?De koningen van de twee millimeter?
De koningen van de twee millimeter?Anton Wiggers
 
God Ganesh Prayers and Spells
God Ganesh Prayers and SpellsGod Ganesh Prayers and Spells
God Ganesh Prayers and SpellsAstro Guru
 
Penjelasan pto09
Penjelasan pto09Penjelasan pto09
Penjelasan pto09khakim88
 
Akhirnya saya berhasil berhenti merokok
Akhirnya saya berhasil berhenti merokokAkhirnya saya berhasil berhenti merokok
Akhirnya saya berhasil berhenti merokokErsan Sabiyl
 
1 3 fungsi real
1 3 fungsi real1 3 fungsi real
1 3 fungsi realTrias Desi
 
Imtbrochurelong
ImtbrochurelongImtbrochurelong
Imtbrochurelongdscitthelm
 
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4FREE FILE DOWNLOAD
 

La actualidad más candente (20)

Ph I 1.1 phonetics
Ph I 1.1 phoneticsPh I 1.1 phonetics
Ph I 1.1 phonetics
 
Irs Investigates Nonprofits
Irs Investigates NonprofitsIrs Investigates Nonprofits
Irs Investigates Nonprofits
 
Swm govt informasion
Swm govt informasionSwm govt informasion
Swm govt informasion
 
Technik.zywienia.i.gospodarstwa.domowego 321[10] z2.03_u
Technik.zywienia.i.gospodarstwa.domowego 321[10] z2.03_uTechnik.zywienia.i.gospodarstwa.domowego 321[10] z2.03_u
Technik.zywienia.i.gospodarstwa.domowego 321[10] z2.03_u
 
Asq 1211 chair Q notes.February 2017
Asq 1211 chair Q notes.February 2017Asq 1211 chair Q notes.February 2017
Asq 1211 chair Q notes.February 2017
 
Obi ds cnt372675
Obi ds cnt372675Obi ds cnt372675
Obi ds cnt372675
 
Conseil régional des notaires de rabat catalogue de formation 2014 vf
Conseil régional des notaires de rabat catalogue de formation 2014 vfConseil régional des notaires de rabat catalogue de formation 2014 vf
Conseil régional des notaires de rabat catalogue de formation 2014 vf
 
Fermentasi nira siwalan
Fermentasi nira siwalanFermentasi nira siwalan
Fermentasi nira siwalan
 
Neovaskuler glokom
Neovaskuler glokomNeovaskuler glokom
Neovaskuler glokom
 
Yyyyyyyyyyy
YyyyyyyyyyyYyyyyyyyyyy
Yyyyyyyyyyy
 
ROHEEL'S RESUME
ROHEEL'S RESUMEROHEEL'S RESUME
ROHEEL'S RESUME
 
De koningen van de twee millimeter?
De koningen van de twee millimeter?De koningen van de twee millimeter?
De koningen van de twee millimeter?
 
Tasawur islam1
Tasawur islam1Tasawur islam1
Tasawur islam1
 
God Ganesh Prayers and Spells
God Ganesh Prayers and SpellsGod Ganesh Prayers and Spells
God Ganesh Prayers and Spells
 
Penjelasan pto09
Penjelasan pto09Penjelasan pto09
Penjelasan pto09
 
Akhirnya saya berhasil berhenti merokok
Akhirnya saya berhasil berhenti merokokAkhirnya saya berhasil berhenti merokok
Akhirnya saya berhasil berhenti merokok
 
1 3 fungsi real
1 3 fungsi real1 3 fungsi real
1 3 fungsi real
 
Imtbrochurelong
ImtbrochurelongImtbrochurelong
Imtbrochurelong
 
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
 
AEGEAN Oragnic Products
AEGEAN Oragnic ProductsAEGEAN Oragnic Products
AEGEAN Oragnic Products
 

Destacado

E Learning para Actualización Curricular
E Learning para Actualización CurricularE Learning para Actualización Curricular
E Learning para Actualización CurricularUniversidad Israel
 
Interpretaciones Teóricas Sobre Graffiti
Interpretaciones Teóricas Sobre GraffitiInterpretaciones Teóricas Sobre Graffiti
Interpretaciones Teóricas Sobre Graffitiestelacardena
 
Seminario didactica edufisica 2013
Seminario didactica edufisica 2013Seminario didactica edufisica 2013
Seminario didactica edufisica 2013Rosa Paollucci
 
Presentacion Power Pointe Fotocopias
Presentacion Power Pointe FotocopiasPresentacion Power Pointe Fotocopias
Presentacion Power Pointe Fotocopiasjonathan londoño
 
Jonas Brothers (pau)
Jonas Brothers (pau)Jonas Brothers (pau)
Jonas Brothers (pau)pau147
 
Investor Awareness and Investment on Equity in Nepalese Capital Market
Investor Awareness and Investment on Equity in Nepalese Capital MarketInvestor Awareness and Investment on Equity in Nepalese Capital Market
Investor Awareness and Investment on Equity in Nepalese Capital MarketSudarshan Kadariya
 
lenguaje-pensamiento
lenguaje-pensamientolenguaje-pensamiento
lenguaje-pensamientoguest08bb307
 
Web 2.0 y su impacto en el surgimiento del "Periodista Multimedia" (Parte 1)
Web 2.0 y su impacto en el surgimiento del "Periodista Multimedia" (Parte 1)Web 2.0 y su impacto en el surgimiento del "Periodista Multimedia" (Parte 1)
Web 2.0 y su impacto en el surgimiento del "Periodista Multimedia" (Parte 1)pmena
 
Javier heraud
Javier heraudJavier heraud
Javier heraudjoakin25
 
Windows Xp Ubuntu
Windows Xp UbuntuWindows Xp Ubuntu
Windows Xp Ubuntugrupokarina
 
viaje de la señal
viaje de la señalviaje de la señal
viaje de la señalJENNY
 
Elektrische fische
Elektrische fischeElektrische fische
Elektrische fischeswoessner
 
wirlebenAC fuer twittwoch
wirlebenAC fuer twittwochwirlebenAC fuer twittwoch
wirlebenAC fuer twittwochSabine Nowak
 

Destacado (20)

saving and investment theory
saving and investment theorysaving and investment theory
saving and investment theory
 
E Learning para Actualización Curricular
E Learning para Actualización CurricularE Learning para Actualización Curricular
E Learning para Actualización Curricular
 
Interpretaciones Teóricas Sobre Graffiti
Interpretaciones Teóricas Sobre GraffitiInterpretaciones Teóricas Sobre Graffiti
Interpretaciones Teóricas Sobre Graffiti
 
Seminario didactica edufisica 2013
Seminario didactica edufisica 2013Seminario didactica edufisica 2013
Seminario didactica edufisica 2013
 
Presentacion Power Pointe Fotocopias
Presentacion Power Pointe FotocopiasPresentacion Power Pointe Fotocopias
Presentacion Power Pointe Fotocopias
 
Jonas Brothers (pau)
Jonas Brothers (pau)Jonas Brothers (pau)
Jonas Brothers (pau)
 
Reporte vhdl7
Reporte vhdl7Reporte vhdl7
Reporte vhdl7
 
[Semana 07 a] fisiopat ecv
[Semana 07 a] fisiopat ecv[Semana 07 a] fisiopat ecv
[Semana 07 a] fisiopat ecv
 
Investor Awareness and Investment on Equity in Nepalese Capital Market
Investor Awareness and Investment on Equity in Nepalese Capital MarketInvestor Awareness and Investment on Equity in Nepalese Capital Market
Investor Awareness and Investment on Equity in Nepalese Capital Market
 
Map constructo 2008
Map constructo 2008Map constructo 2008
Map constructo 2008
 
lenguaje-pensamiento
lenguaje-pensamientolenguaje-pensamiento
lenguaje-pensamiento
 
Web 2.0 y su impacto en el surgimiento del "Periodista Multimedia" (Parte 1)
Web 2.0 y su impacto en el surgimiento del "Periodista Multimedia" (Parte 1)Web 2.0 y su impacto en el surgimiento del "Periodista Multimedia" (Parte 1)
Web 2.0 y su impacto en el surgimiento del "Periodista Multimedia" (Parte 1)
 
4 b
4 b4 b
4 b
 
Javier heraud
Javier heraudJavier heraud
Javier heraud
 
Windows Xp Ubuntu
Windows Xp UbuntuWindows Xp Ubuntu
Windows Xp Ubuntu
 
Tusabes
TusabesTusabes
Tusabes
 
viaje de la señal
viaje de la señalviaje de la señal
viaje de la señal
 
Elektrische fische
Elektrische fischeElektrische fische
Elektrische fische
 
Anibal Cv
Anibal CvAnibal Cv
Anibal Cv
 
wirlebenAC fuer twittwoch
wirlebenAC fuer twittwochwirlebenAC fuer twittwoch
wirlebenAC fuer twittwoch
 

Similar a Factors Affecting Investor Decision Making: A Case of Nepalese Capital Market

3rd Book- Dr Rahul & Heena Tiwari- How to Write an Article and Publish it - C...
3rd Book- Dr Rahul & Heena Tiwari- How to Write an Article and Publish it - C...3rd Book- Dr Rahul & Heena Tiwari- How to Write an Article and Publish it - C...
3rd Book- Dr Rahul & Heena Tiwari- How to Write an Article and Publish it - C...CLOVE Dental OMNI Hospitals Andhra Hospital
 
Yield of Boro rice under system of rice intensification with different water ...
Yield of Boro rice under system of rice intensification with different water ...Yield of Boro rice under system of rice intensification with different water ...
Yield of Boro rice under system of rice intensification with different water ...Md. Julfiker Rahman
 
Strategy-Benefits Roadmapping for Tracing Project Business Benefits
Strategy-Benefits Roadmapping for Tracing Project Business BenefitsStrategy-Benefits Roadmapping for Tracing Project Business Benefits
Strategy-Benefits Roadmapping for Tracing Project Business BenefitsWalter Adamson
 
Capital adquiacy std ifm
Capital adquiacy std ifmCapital adquiacy std ifm
Capital adquiacy std ifmdibyabhr
 
Famliy Office Program
Famliy Office ProgramFamliy Office Program
Famliy Office Programabeypeix
 
Lookwalker presentation
Lookwalker presentationLookwalker presentation
Lookwalker presentationCEfforts India
 
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4Purplelittoz Kimz
 
Akhirnya Aku Berhasil Mematikan Rokok
Akhirnya Aku Berhasil Mematikan RokokAkhirnya Aku Berhasil Mematikan Rokok
Akhirnya Aku Berhasil Mematikan RokokArdian DP
 
Epargne et Assurance - Des leviers pour le développement du Sud
Epargne et Assurance - Des leviers pour le développement du SudEpargne et Assurance - Des leviers pour le développement du Sud
Epargne et Assurance - Des leviers pour le développement du SudIsabelle Laumonier
 

Similar a Factors Affecting Investor Decision Making: A Case of Nepalese Capital Market (14)

3rd Book- Dr Rahul & Heena Tiwari- How to Write an Article and Publish it - C...
3rd Book- Dr Rahul & Heena Tiwari- How to Write an Article and Publish it - C...3rd Book- Dr Rahul & Heena Tiwari- How to Write an Article and Publish it - C...
3rd Book- Dr Rahul & Heena Tiwari- How to Write an Article and Publish it - C...
 
3rd book dr rahul & heena tiwari- how to write an article and publish it - c...
3rd book  dr rahul & heena tiwari- how to write an article and publish it - c...3rd book  dr rahul & heena tiwari- how to write an article and publish it - c...
3rd book dr rahul & heena tiwari- how to write an article and publish it - c...
 
Yield of Boro rice under system of rice intensification with different water ...
Yield of Boro rice under system of rice intensification with different water ...Yield of Boro rice under system of rice intensification with different water ...
Yield of Boro rice under system of rice intensification with different water ...
 
Strategy-Benefits Roadmapping for Tracing Project Business Benefits
Strategy-Benefits Roadmapping for Tracing Project Business BenefitsStrategy-Benefits Roadmapping for Tracing Project Business Benefits
Strategy-Benefits Roadmapping for Tracing Project Business Benefits
 
Capital adquiacy std ifm
Capital adquiacy std ifmCapital adquiacy std ifm
Capital adquiacy std ifm
 
Famliy Office Program
Famliy Office ProgramFamliy Office Program
Famliy Office Program
 
Lookwalker presentation
Lookwalker presentationLookwalker presentation
Lookwalker presentation
 
Ok folder ok klein 03.2012
Ok   folder ok  klein 03.2012Ok   folder ok  klein 03.2012
Ok folder ok klein 03.2012
 
1st book
1st book1st book
1st book
 
Peri Oral Soft Tissue & Orthognathic surgery.- 1st book
Peri Oral Soft Tissue & Orthognathic surgery.- 1st bookPeri Oral Soft Tissue & Orthognathic surgery.- 1st book
Peri Oral Soft Tissue & Orthognathic surgery.- 1st book
 
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
Dsk reka bentuk dan teknologi thn 4
 
Akhirnya Aku Berhasil Mematikan Rokok
Akhirnya Aku Berhasil Mematikan RokokAkhirnya Aku Berhasil Mematikan Rokok
Akhirnya Aku Berhasil Mematikan Rokok
 
Bab v
Bab vBab v
Bab v
 
Epargne et Assurance - Des leviers pour le développement du Sud
Epargne et Assurance - Des leviers pour le développement du SudEpargne et Assurance - Des leviers pour le développement du Sud
Epargne et Assurance - Des leviers pour le développement du Sud
 

Más de Sudarshan Kadariya

Abstract_Market reactions to tangible and intangibles a case of nepal
Abstract_Market reactions to tangible and intangibles a case of nepalAbstract_Market reactions to tangible and intangibles a case of nepal
Abstract_Market reactions to tangible and intangibles a case of nepalSudarshan Kadariya
 
Abstract_Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
Abstract_Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidenceAbstract_Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
Abstract_Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidenceSudarshan Kadariya
 
Tangible market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence synopsis
Tangible market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence synopsisTangible market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence synopsis
Tangible market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence synopsisSudarshan Kadariya
 
Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidenceMarket information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidenceSudarshan Kadariya
 
Standardization of services and the democratization of the nepali stock market
Standardization of services and the democratization of the nepali stock marketStandardization of services and the democratization of the nepali stock market
Standardization of services and the democratization of the nepali stock marketSudarshan Kadariya
 
Social media, fake news, news and stock market
Social media, fake news, news and stock marketSocial media, fake news, news and stock market
Social media, fake news, news and stock marketSudarshan Kadariya
 
Confirmation of buying in january and selling in december
Confirmation of buying in january and selling in decemberConfirmation of buying in january and selling in december
Confirmation of buying in january and selling in decemberSudarshan Kadariya
 
The stock market behavior on news and a comparison with s&p 500
The stock market behavior on news and a comparison with s&p 500The stock market behavior on news and a comparison with s&p 500
The stock market behavior on news and a comparison with s&p 500Sudarshan Kadariya
 
Stock market, nepse past, present and the future
Stock market, nepse past, present and the futureStock market, nepse past, present and the future
Stock market, nepse past, present and the futureSudarshan Kadariya
 
Investing basics in the stock market
Investing basics in the stock marketInvesting basics in the stock market
Investing basics in the stock marketSudarshan Kadariya
 
Financial foundation before investment
Financial foundation before investmentFinancial foundation before investment
Financial foundation before investmentSudarshan Kadariya
 
Unit principles of option pricing put
Unit  principles of option pricing putUnit  principles of option pricing put
Unit principles of option pricing putSudarshan Kadariya
 
Unit principles of option pricing call
Unit  principles of option pricing callUnit  principles of option pricing call
Unit principles of option pricing callSudarshan Kadariya
 
Unit 2 structure of option market
Unit 2 structure of option marketUnit 2 structure of option market
Unit 2 structure of option marketSudarshan Kadariya
 
Security valuation bonds updated
Security valuation bonds updatedSecurity valuation bonds updated
Security valuation bonds updatedSudarshan Kadariya
 

Más de Sudarshan Kadariya (20)

Abstract_Market reactions to tangible and intangibles a case of nepal
Abstract_Market reactions to tangible and intangibles a case of nepalAbstract_Market reactions to tangible and intangibles a case of nepal
Abstract_Market reactions to tangible and intangibles a case of nepal
 
Abstract_Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
Abstract_Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidenceAbstract_Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
Abstract_Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
 
Tangible market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence synopsis
Tangible market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence synopsisTangible market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence synopsis
Tangible market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence synopsis
 
Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidenceMarket information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
Market information and stock returns the nepalese evidence
 
Finance and the good society
Finance and the good societyFinance and the good society
Finance and the good society
 
Standardization of services and the democratization of the nepali stock market
Standardization of services and the democratization of the nepali stock marketStandardization of services and the democratization of the nepali stock market
Standardization of services and the democratization of the nepali stock market
 
Social media, fake news, news and stock market
Social media, fake news, news and stock marketSocial media, fake news, news and stock market
Social media, fake news, news and stock market
 
Confirmation of buying in january and selling in december
Confirmation of buying in january and selling in decemberConfirmation of buying in january and selling in december
Confirmation of buying in january and selling in december
 
The stock market behavior on news and a comparison with s&p 500
The stock market behavior on news and a comparison with s&p 500The stock market behavior on news and a comparison with s&p 500
The stock market behavior on news and a comparison with s&p 500
 
Stock market, nepse past, present and the future
Stock market, nepse past, present and the futureStock market, nepse past, present and the future
Stock market, nepse past, present and the future
 
Investing basics in the stock market
Investing basics in the stock marketInvesting basics in the stock market
Investing basics in the stock market
 
Financial foundation before investment
Financial foundation before investmentFinancial foundation before investment
Financial foundation before investment
 
Unit principles of option pricing put
Unit  principles of option pricing putUnit  principles of option pricing put
Unit principles of option pricing put
 
Unit principles of option pricing call
Unit  principles of option pricing callUnit  principles of option pricing call
Unit principles of option pricing call
 
Unit 2 structure of option market
Unit 2 structure of option marketUnit 2 structure of option market
Unit 2 structure of option market
 
Put call parity relation
Put call parity relationPut call parity relation
Put call parity relation
 
Bo pricing
Bo pricingBo pricing
Bo pricing
 
Unit 1 financial derivatives
Unit 1 financial derivativesUnit 1 financial derivatives
Unit 1 financial derivatives
 
Security valuation bonds updated
Security valuation bonds updatedSecurity valuation bonds updated
Security valuation bonds updated
 
Capital budgeting
Capital budgetingCapital budgeting
Capital budgeting
 

Factors Affecting Investor Decision Making: A Case of Nepalese Capital Market

  •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¶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
  •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
  • 4. GRFXPHQWHG WKDW SHRSOH KDYH JUHDW FRQILGHQFH LQ WKHLU IDOOLEOH MXGJPHQWV 7KH LVVXH RI RYHUFRQILGHQFH LQ MXGJPHQW ZDV IXUWKHU FRQILUPHG E (LQKRUQ
  • 5. :LWK WKH EDVH RQ WKHVH HYLGHQFHV WKH JHQHUDO OHDUQLQJ LQ WKH LQYHVWPHQW FRPPXQLW FDQ EH H[SUHVVHG DV WKH HYHQWV WKDW EXUVWRXW H[SHFWHGO RU XQH[SHFWHGO WKDW KDYH VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFW RQ LQYHVWRUV¶ PLQGVHW DQG WKDW LQIRUPDWLRQ SOD WKH LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ LQGLYLGXDO LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQV $IWHU WKH HYROXWLRQ RI WKH DVVHWV YDOXDWLRQ PRGHOV WKHUH KDV EHHQ WKH FRQVLGHUDEOH VKLIW RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH WRZDUGV SUHGLFWLQJ UHWXUQV DQG IRUPXODWLQJ WKH IRUHFDVWLQJ
  • 7. WRROV DQG WHFKQLTXHV %XW WKHUH LV VWLOO D ODFN RI FRQVHQVXV XSRQ VLQJOH PRGHO WRROV DQG SURFHGXUHV )RU LQVWDQFH )DPD
  • 8. GLYLGHG WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV LQWR VHOHFWLYLW DQG ULVN VWRFN UHWXUQV DV FKDQJHV LQ H[SHFWHG IXWXUH GLYLGHQGV RU H[SHFWHG IXWXUH UHWXUQV DPSEHOO
  • 9. FDVKIORZ QHZV HIIHFW 9XROWHHQDKR
  • 11. SURSRVHG WKDW VWRFN UHWXUQ LV D IXQFWLRQ RI WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQV 7KHVH HPSLULFDO HYLGHQFHV IRFXVHG WRZDUG WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV GHFRPSRVLWLRQ ZKLFK KHOSV WR LGHQWLI WKH GLPHQVLRQV WKDW H[SODLQ WKH YDULDWLRQ RI UHWXUQV 1RZDGDV VWRFN UHWXUQV IRUHFDVWLQJ EHFDPH D FHQWUDO LVVXHV LQ ILQDQFH DQG QXPHURXV VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FRQGXFWHG WR VFDQ WKH PDQLIHVWDWLRQV $PLG WKLV WKH YRODWLOH HFRQRPLF HQYLURQPHQW DOVR GHVHUYHV WKH HIIRUWV RI IRUHFDVWLQJ ,Q EHKDYLRUDO VWXGLHV 'H/RQJ HW DO
  • 12. GRFXPHQWHG WKH RYHUUHDFWLRQ RI SULFHV LV GXH WR QHZV SULFH EXEEOHV DQG H[SHFWDWLRQV 6RSKLVWLFDWHG LQYHVWRUV FDQ HDUQ VXSHULRU UHWXUQV E WDNLQJ DGYDQWDJH RI XQGHUUHDFWLRQ DQG RYHUUHDFWLRQ ZLWKRXW EHDULQJ H[WUD ULVN %DUEHULV HW DO
  • 13. DQG DVVHW SULFHV DUH LQIOXHQFHG E LQYHVWRU RYHUFRQILGHQFH 'DQLHO DQG 7LWPDQ
  • 15. IXUWKHU GRFXPHQWHG WKDW LQYHVWRUV DUH RYHUO VHQVLWLYH WR LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKHQ WKH QHHG WR PDNH PRUH VXEMHFWLYH MXGJPHQWV 7KHVH HYLGHQFHV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQV DUH PRUH WKDQ PRGHOV DQG QXPEHUV VR WKDW WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI ILQDQFLDO WKHRULHV DQG EHKDYLRU RI WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNHUV KDV EHHQ UDLVHG 2Q WRS RI WKH EHKDYLRUDO HYLGHQFHV %DQ]
  • 16. VKRZHG WKH VL]H HIIHFW 6LPLODUO QXPEHU RI RWKHU VWXGLHV UHYHDOHG WKH H[LVWHQFH RI UHODWLRQVKLS RI VWRFN UHWXUQV ZLWK RWKHU DFFRXQWLQJ YDULDEOHV )RU LQVWDQFH HDUQLQJV FDVK IORZV GLYLGHQGV UHWXUQV PDUNHW HTXLW VL]H
  • 17. ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW OHYHUDJH HWF 6L]H DQG ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW SURYLGH D VLPSOH DQG SRZHUIXO FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI WKH FURVVVHFWLRQ RI DYHUDJH VWRFN UHWXUQV )DPD DQG )UHQFK 'DQLHO DQG 7LWPDQ
  • 19. GRFXPHQWHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW DQG UHWXUQV DUH ZHDNHU DQG OHVV FRQVLVWHQW 7KHVH HYLGHQFHV SURYH WKH FRQWURYHUV DPRQJ WKH SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV $SDUW IURP WKH YROXPLQRXV VWXGLHV LQ WKH GHYHORSHG DQG ZHVWHUQ HFRQRP OLPLWHG VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FRQGXFWHG LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI 1HSDO 7KH SRVLWLYH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ VWRFN UHWXUQV DQG VL]H ZKHUHDV LQYHUVH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ VWRFN UHWXUQV DQG PDUNHW WRERRN YDOXH E 3UDGKDQ
  • 20. 7KH SRVLWLYH UHODWLRQ RI VWRFN UHWXUQV ZLWK HDUQLQJ LHOG DQG VL]H ZKHUHDV QHJDWLYH UHODWLRQ ZLWK ERRNWRPDUNHW UDWLR DQG FDVK IORZ LHOG DQG ERRNWRPDUNHW YDOXH LV IRXQG WR EH PRUH LQIRUPDWLYH 3UDGKDQ DQG %DODPSDNL
  • 22. IRXQG WKH ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW LV WKH PRVW VLJQLILFDQW GHWHUPLQDQW RI VWRFN UHWXUQV ,Q RWKHU VWXGLHV 'DQJRO
  • 23. UHYHDOHG WKDW 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW LV LQHIILFLHQW ZKHUHDV 3DQGHD
  •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
  • 26. UXQ 7KH FHQWUDO LGHD LV WKDW LW LV QRW HIILFLHQW DQG WKHUH LV SRVVLELOLW RI RXWSHUIRUPDQFH LQ WKH PDUNHW 7KH HGXFDWHG DQG ZHOO DZDUH LQYHVWRUV FRXOG VFRUH EHWWHU WKDQ RWKHUV 7KH PDUNHW ZLWKRXW FOHDU UHDVRQV H[SHULHQFHV WKH EHDULVK WUHQG DQG LW KDV JUDGXDOO GHWHULRUDWHG WKH LQYHVWRUV¶ VHQWLPHQWV WRZDUGV WKH PDUNHW UHYHUVDO LQ QHDU IXWXUH 7KH VRFDOOHG PDUNHW FUDVK EHFDXVH PRVW RI WKH OLVWHG VWRFN EHFDPH RYHUSULFHG KDV VKDUSO GHFOLQH KROGLQJ FDSDFLWLHV RI PRVW RI WKH LQYHVWRUV DQG IRUFHG WKHP WR VXSSO UHJDUGOHVV RI PLQLPXP WUDGLQJ SULFHV LQ WKH PDUNHW 7KH VLJQLILFDQW LQFUHDVH LQ WKH VXSSO VLGH RI WKH VHFXULWLHV DQG WKH DEVHQFH RI PRWLYDWLRQ IRU LQYHVWRUV LW LV QDWXUDOO GLIILFXOW WR SUHGLFW WKH UHFHQW IXWXUH :LWK WKHVH FLUFXPVWDQFHV WKH VWXG FRQGXFWHG D VXUYH RQ HTXLW LQYHVWRUV 7KH VWXG RQ PDUNHW UHDFWLRQV WR WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ WKH VWRFN UHWXUQ RI WKH ILUP LV GHFRPSRVHG LQWR WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQ FRPSRQHQWV 7KH WDQJLEOH UHWXUQV LV EDVHG RQ WKH SDVW IXQGDPHQWDO JURZWK PHDVXUHV DQG LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQV LV WKHQ WKH SDUW RI WKH SDVW UHWXUQV WKDW UHPDLQV XQH[SODLQHG DQG SUHVXPDEO LV WKH UHVXOW RI DQ LQYHVWRU UHVSRQVH WR LQIRUPDWLRQ QRW FRQWDLQHG LQ WKH DFFRXQWLQJ JURZWK PHDVXUHV 7KH DFFRXQWLQJ JURZWK PHDVXUHV UHSUHVHQW WKH EDVLF DFFRXQWLQJ YDULDEOHV WKDW FDQ EH HDVLO H[WUDFWHG IURP ZLGHO DYDLODEOH SXEOLF GLVFORVXUH OLNH DQQXDO UHSRUWV TXDUWHUO DQG PRQWKO UHSRUWV DQG WKDW FDQ EH XVHG IRU WKH PDUNHW SUHGLFWLRQ 7KHRUHWLFDOO LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI WKH HIILFLHQW FDSLWDO PDUNHW WKH VWRFN SULFHV LQFRUSRUDWH DOO WKH SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG QRERG FDQ RXWSHUIRUP WKH PDUNHW %XW LQ SUDFWLFH WKH XVH RI WHFKQLFDO DQG IXQGDPHQWDO DQDOVLV LV KHOSIXO WR H[FHO WKH PDUNHW SHUIRUPDQFH %DVHG RQ WKH HYLGHQFHV RI SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV WKDW LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQV UHYHUVDO LV SRVVLEOH DQG WKH ERRNWRPDUNHW LV D JRRG SUR[ RI LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQV 'DQLHO DQG 7LWPDQ
  • 27. 7KH UHSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH VLPLODU VWXG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW GLPHQVLRQV PLJKW EH HVVHQWLDO LQ 1HSDOHVH ILQDQFLDO PDUNHW WR HQKDQFH WKH ILQDQFLDO OLWHUDF 7KH ILQDQFLDO LQIRUPDWLRQ RU WKH VLJQDO SURYLGHV WKH LGHDV RI WKH HIIHFWV DQG UDQJHV RI PDUNHW LQ GLIIHUHQW SHULRGV DV ZHOO DV LW KHOSV WR VHJUHJDWH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQWR IDFWV DQG UXPRUV LQ SDUWLFXODU ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV WKH VWXG ZRXOG EH D XVHIXO HIIRUW LQ DQ DUHD RI UHVHDUFK LQ 1HSDOHVH )LQDQFH DQG D QRYHO SKHQRPHQRQ )LQDOO WKH FRQFXUUHQW GHYHORSPHQW LQ 1HSDOHVH ILQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG WKH JUDGXDO H[SDQVLRQV RI WKH HFRQRP DV ZHOO DV WKH VRSKLVWLFDWLRQ RI 1HSDOHVH FDSLWDO PDUNHW GHVHUYH WKH VLPLODU VWXGLHV RQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUN (DUO IURP WKH WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU PDQ VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FDUULHG RXW LQ DVVHWV YDOXDWLRQ ,Q ILQDQFH YDOXDWLRQ LV WKH SURFHVV RI DVVHVVPHQW DQG HVWLPDWLRQ RI PDUNHWDEOH JRRGV LQ WHUPV RI PHGLXP RI H[FKDQJH ,W LV WKH DFW RI GHFLGLQJ KRZ PXFK PRQH VRPHWKLQJ PLJKW EH VROG IRU RU WKH DPRXQW RI PRQH GHFLGHG WR IRU SDUWLFXODU JRRGV DW D VSHFLILHG WLPH 7KH YDOXDWLRQ FDQ EH GRQH RQ DVVHWV IRU H[DPSOH ILQDQFLDO DVVHWV WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOHV
  • 29. 9DOXDWLRQV DUH LPSRUWDQW IRU PDQ UHDVRQV LQ ILQDQFH WKXV LW LV DW WKH KHDUW RI ILQDQFLDO HFRQRPLFV DQG HVSHFLDOO RI WKH FRUSRUDWH ILQDQFH RPPRQ VWRFN LV D NLQG RI ILQDQFLDO DVVHWV DQG WKH WUDGLQJ RI WKHVH DVVHWV KDSSHQV LQ WKH RUJDQL]HG VWRFN H[FKDQJHV DW WKH HTXLOLEULXP PDUNHW SULFH ,W LV GHWHUPLQHG ZLWK WKH IUHH IORZ RI GHPDQG DQG VXSSO RI WKH VHFXULWLHV 7KH VHFXULW SULFHV DUH LQIOXHQFHG E WKH
  • 31. QXPEHU RI LQWHUDFWLQJ IDFWRUV 6RPH RI WKHP DUH LQ PHDVXUDEOH WHUPV IRU LQVWDQFH ILUP VSHFLILF DFFRXQWLQJ YDULDEOHV PDFURHFRQRPLF LQGLFDWRUV HWF DQG RWKHUV DUH GLIILFXOW WR PHDVXUH VXFK DV LQYHVWRUV¶ SVFKRORJ VHOHFWLYH LQYHVWPHQW EHKDYLRU DWWLWXGH DQG SHUFHSWLRQ HWF 7KH FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI WKHVH LQWHUDFWLQJ YDULDEOHV LQ WHUPV RI LWV PHDVXUHPHQW FDQ EH WHUPHG DV WDQJLEOH YDULDEOHV DQG LQWDQJLEOH YDULDEOHV UHVSHFWLYHO ,Q WHUPV RI WKH LQYHVWPHQW LQ ILQDQFLDO DVVHWV OLNH FRPPRQ VWRFNV ERQGV RSWLRQV IXWXUHV HWF 7KH WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH YDULDEOHV SOD WKH LPSRUWDQW UROHV LQ GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ 7KH LQYHVWPHQW LV WKH SRVWSRQHPHQW RI FXUUHQW VSHQGLQJ IRU WKH IXWXUH SXUSRVH ZLWK WKH H[SHFWDWLRQ RI JDLQ 7KH JDLQ LV WKH FRPSHQVDWLRQ IRU WKH LQYHVWRU¶V VDFULILFH :LWK WKH VDPH QRWLRQ VWRFN UHWXUQ LV DOVR D FRPSHQVDWLRQ IRU WKH VDFULILFH RI FXUUHQW EHQHILWV ,Q JHQHUDO VWRFN UHWXUQV VKRXOG EH DW OHDVW HTXDO WR PDUNHW UHWXUQV WKDW KHOS WR UHWDLQ WKH LQLWLDO LQYHVWPHQW IRU D ORQJ SRVLWLRQ ,I LW LV GHYLDWHG IURP WKH EHQFKPDUN UHWXUQV WKHQ WKHUH ZRXOG EH WKH SUREOHP RI ZLWKGUDZDO RI FRPPLWPHQW RU WKDW FUHDWH D SUREOHP RI PLVSULFLQJ 7KH FDXVHV RI VWRFN UHWXUQ PLJKW EH GLIIHUHQW DPRQJ WKH RWKHU IDFWRUV RQH RI WKHP FRXOG EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH FKDQJHV LQ H[SHFWHG IXWXUH GLYLGHQGV RU LW FRXOG EH WKH H[SHFWHG IXWXUH UHWXUQV 7KH FKDQJHV LQ ODJJHG UHWXUQV PLJKW DOVR KDYH D VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW RQ FXUUHQW VWRFN SULFHV KLJKHU WKH PDJQLWXGH RQ WKH FKDQJHV LQ UHWXUQV OHDGV WR KLJKHU WKH FKDQJHV LQ VWRFN SULFHV LQ WKH PDUNHW 7KH KLJK OHYHO RI XSV DQG GRZQV LQ VWRFN SULFHV LV WHUPHG DV PDUNHW YRODWLOLW 0RUH VSHFLILFDOO WKH IUHTXHQW FKDQJHV LQ VWRFN SULFHV ZLWK WKH FKDQJH RI GLYLGHQG QHZV WKH FKDQJH LQ H[SHFWHG UHWXUQV ZLWK WKH FKDQJH LQ H[SHFWHG GLYLGHQGV DQ LQQRYDWLRQ LQ WKH H[SHFWHG UHWXUQ WRGD PLJKW EH WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU GLVWDQFH IXWXUH DQG DOVR VKRFNV LQ H[SHFWHG IXWXUH GLYLGHQGV PLJKW EH WKH FRUUHODWLRQ HIIHFW RQ SULFHV 7KXV WKH VWRFN SULFHV KDYH WKH VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV ZLWK WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFK LV SRSXODUO NQRZQ DV PDUNHW LQIRUPDWLRQ ,Q WKH ILQDQFLDO OLWHUDWXUH WKH EDVLF TXHVWLRQ WKDW KDV VWLPXODWHG YROXPLQRXV UHVHDUFK DQG EHFDPH D KHDWHG GHEDWH LV ZKDW PRYHV WKH VWRFN PDUNHW RU WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV 6RPH VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ WULQJ WR LGHQWLI WKH IDFWRUV E XVLQJ VWRFN UHWXUQV GHFRPSRVLWLRQ 'HFRPSRVLWLRQ LV WKH SURFHVV E ZKLFK WKH PDWWHU LV EURNHQ GRZQ LQWR VPDOOHU SDUWV RU VLPSOH SDUWV ,Q FDVH RI WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV GHFRPSRVLWLRQ LW LV WKH SURFHVV RI GLYLGLQJ VWRFN UHWXUQV LQWR GLIIHUHQW SDUWV IRU LQVWDQFH UHWXUQV IRU VHOHFWLYLW DQG UHWXUQV IRU WLPLQJ H[SHFWHG IXWXUH GLYLGHQGV DQG H[SHFWHG IXWXUH UHWXUQV FDVK IORZ H[SHFWDWLRQV DQG GLVFRXQW UDWHV WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQV HWF 6RPH RWKHU VWXGLHV XVH WKH IXQGDPHQWDO YDULDEOHV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH IDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ VWRFN UHWXUQV 7KH JUDSKLFDO SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUN RI PDUNHW UHDFWLRQV WR WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQV LV SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH
  • 33. 7KH VWXG XVH VRPH DFFRXQWLQJ YDULDEOHV VWRFN SULFH DQQXDO LHOG QXPEHUV RI FRPPRQ VWRFN RXWVWDQGLQJ ERRN YDOXH RI HTXLW HDUQLQJV VDOHV DQG FDVKIORZ IRU WKH DQDOVLV ,W LV DVVXPHG WKDW WKH SULFHSHUVKDUH LV HTXDO WR WKH UHWXUQV LH DV SULFH LQFUHDVHV UHWXUQ LQFUHDVHV 7KH VWXG GHILQHG D JLYHQ ILUP¶V WDQJLEOH UHWXUQ LOOXVWUDWHG E WKH GDVKHG OLQH LQ WKH ILJXUH DQG LWV LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQ LV WKH UHVLGXDO ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV WKH WDQJLEOH UHWXUQ DV WKH SDVW VWRFN UHWXUQ WKDW ZRXOG EH H[SHFWHG EDVHG VROHO RQ WKH SDVW IXQGDPHQWDO JURZWK PHDVXUHV 7KH LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQ LV WKHQ WKH SDUW RI WKH SDVW UHWXUQ WKDW UHPDLQV XQH[SODLQHG DQG SUHVXPDEO LV WKH UHVXOW RI DQ LQYHVWRU UHVSRQVH WR LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFK LV QRW FRQWDLQHG LQ WKH DFFRXQWLQJ JURZWK PHDVXUHV 5HYLHZ RI 0DMRU (PSLULFDO 6WXGLHV 7KH HYLGHQFHV LQ YDULRXV GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH PRGHUQ ILQDQFH KDYH EHHQ RSLQHG WKH QHZ LQVLJKWV LQ WKHRU DQG SUDFWLFHV 7KH VWRFN UHWXUQV IRUHFDVWLQJ EHLQJ WKH FHQWUDO LVVXHV LQ ILQDQFH QXPHURXV VWXGLHV WULHG WR ILQG WKH PRVW UHOLDEOH IDFWRUV FRQWULEXWLQJ WR UHWXUQV $PRQJ WKH RWKHUV WKH TXDOLWDWLYH VWXGLHV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH LQYHVWRUV¶ UHDFWLRQ WR PDUNHW SULFHV VKRZV WKDW RYHUUHDFWLRQ RI SULFHV WR QHZV SULFH EXEEOHV DQG H[SHFWDWLRQV WKH PRVW UHFHQW HYLGHQFH VKRZV LQYHVWRUV DUH RYHUO VHQVLWLYH WR LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKHQ WKH QHHG WR PDNH PRUH VXEMHFWLYH MXGJPHQWV 7KHVH HPSLULFDO HYLGHQFHV VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQV DUH PRUH WKDQ PRGHOV DQG QXPEHUV EXW EDVHG RQ WKHRULHV DQG EHKDYLRU RI WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNHUV 'HVSLWH WKH DEVHQFH RI ILQLWH PHDVXUHPHQW WRROV IRU WKH EHKDYLRUDO DVSHFWV RI WKH LQYHVWRUV WKHVH DUH WUHDWHG DV LQWDQJLEOHV ,W KDV JUHDWHU LQIOXHQFHV RQ VWRFN SULFHV DQG RQ LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQV 7KXV WKHVH IDFWRUV DUH WKH LQWHUHVW RI WKH VWXG 2Q WRS RI WKH EHKDYLRUDO HYLGHQFHV WKHUH DUH VRPH PHDVXUDEOH YDULDEOHV )RU LQVWDQFH HDUQLQJV FDVK IORZV GLYLGHQGV UHWXUQV PDUNHW HTXLW VL]H
  • 34. ERRN WRPDUNHW HTXLW HWF ZKLFK SURYLGHV FHUWDLQ WUHQGV LQ WLPH VHULHV 7KH HYLGHQFH VKRZV WKDW WKH ERRN WR PDUNHW UDWLR DQG FDVK IORZ LHOG KDV WKH PRVW VLJQLILFDQW SRVLWLYH LPSDFW RQ H[SHFWHG UHWXUQV KDQ HW DO
  • 35. VL]H DQG ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW SURYLGH D VLPSOH DQG SRZHUIXO FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI WKH FURVVVHFWLRQ RI
  • 37. DYHUDJH VWRFN UHWXUQV )DPD DQG )UHQFK
  • 38. 2Q WKH FRQWUDU .RWKDUL HW DO
  • 39. GRFXPHQWHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW DQG UHWXUQV DUH ZHDNHU DQG OHVV FRQVLVWHQW %DVHG RQ WKHVH HYLGHQFHV RQH FDQ VD WKDW VL]H ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW FDVK IORZ VWRFN SULFH UHWXUQV DQG RWKHU TXDQWLWDWLYH IDFWRUV DUH FRQILUPHG WR EH WKH YDULDEOHV WKDW FRQWULEXWH WR WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV 7KH SRVLWLYH WUDGHRII EHWZHHQ ULVN DQG UHWXUQ )DPD DQG 0DF%HWK
  • 40. DQG WKH UHWXUQ UHYHUVDO RI 'H%RQGW DQG 7KDOHU
  • 41. GRHV QRW KHOS WR UHVW WKH HYLGHQFHV LQ D VLQJOH VWDWHPHQW 0RUHRYHU =DURZLQ
  • 42. FRQFOXGHG WKH ZLQQHUORVHU HIIHFW LV SULPDULO D VL]H HIIHFW PDUNHW UHVSRQGV PLVWDNHQO LQ LQLWLDO SKDVH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ ,NHQEHUU HW DO
  • 43. DQRPDOLHV FDQ EH GXH WR PHWKRGRORJ DQG PRVW ORQJ WHUP UHWXUQ DQRPDOLHV WHQG WR GLVDSSHDU ZLWK UHDVRQDEOH FKDQJHV LQ WHFKQLTXH XVHG IRU WKH DQDOVLV )DPD
  • 44. 0DUNHW UHDFWLRQ WR DJJUHJDWH HDUQLQJV LV PXFK GLIIHUHQW WKDQ WKH UHDFWLRQ WR ILUP HDUQLQJV .RWKDUL HW DO
  • 45. JUHDWHU LQIRUPDWLRQ XQFHUWDLQW SURGXFH UHODWLYHO KLJKHU H[SHFWHG UHWXUQV =KDQJ
  • 46. DQG WKH PHGLD FRYHUDJH KDV EHHQ WKH VLJQLILFDQW IDFWRU IRU VWRFN UHWXUQ IRUHFDVWLQJ 7KH HYLGHQFH GRFXPHQWHG E )DQJ DQG 3HUHVV
  • 47. VKRZHG WKDW KLJKPHGLD FRYHUDJH VWRFNV HDUQ ORZHU UHWXUQV DQG (QJHOEHUJ DQG 3DUVRQV
  •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
  • 50. 6WDWHPHQW RI WKH SUREOHP )LQDQFLDO HFRQRPLVWV DQG LQYHVWRUV KDYH EHHQ VSHQGLQJ FRQVLGHUDEOH WLPH VHDUFKLQJ IRU LQYHVWPHQW VWUDWHJLHV WKDW LHOG DEQRUPDO UHWXUQV EXW WKH UHOLDEOH RQH LV HW WR EH IRXQG 6HYHUDO VWXGLHV KDYH FRQILUPHG WKDW WKH ILUP OHYHO IXQGDPHQWDO YDULDEOHV DUH XVHIXO LQ H[SODLQLQJ WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV SDWWHUQV DQG WKH IXWXUH SULFH PRYHPHQWV )RU LQVWDQFH HDUQLQJ LHOG HIIHFW RI %DVX
  • 52. OHYHUDJH HIIHFW RI %KDQGDUL
  • 54. MRLQW HIIHFW RI EHWD VL]H OHYHUDJH ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW DQG HDUQLQJ LHOG RI )DPD DQG )UHQFK
  • 55. ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW DQG FDVK IORZ LHOG HIIHFW RI KDQ HW DO
  •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
  • 57.
  • 58. KLJK ERRNWRPDUNHWHTXLW ILUPV RU ERRNWRPDUNHW DQRPDO 5RVHQEHUJ HW DO
  • 59. KLJKHU SURILWDELOLW HDUQ KLJKHU DYHUDJH VWRFN UHWXUQV +DXJHQ DQG %DNHU
  • 60. OHYHUDJH HIIHFW WKDW LV KLJKOHYHUDJH ILUPV KDYH KLVWRULFDOO RXWSHUIRUPHG ORZOHYHUDJH ILUPV %KDQGDUL¶V
  •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
  • 62. VKRZHG WKDW WKH UHYHUVDO HIIHFW LV VXEVXPHG E WKH ERRNWRPDUNHW HIIHFW EXW WKH VXUYLYRU ELDV GRHV QRW H[SODLQ WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ ERRNWRPDUNHW DQG DYHUDJH UHWXUQV )XUWKHU 'DQLHO DQG 7LWPDQ
  • 63. VKRZHG WKDW RQO LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQ UHYHUVDO LV WUXH DQG WKH ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW LV D JRRG SUR[ IRU SDVW LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQV :LWK WKH VXSSRUW RI WKHVH HYLGHQFHV WKH VLPLODU SURFHGXUHV KDYH EHHQ HPSORHG IRU WKH VWXG DQG LW LV DVVXPHG WKDW SULFH VFDOHG YDULDEOHV DUH WKH SUR[LHV RI WDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFK LV HVVHQWLDO IRU WKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI LQWDQJLEOH FRPSRQHQWV IRU WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV UHYHUVDO DQDOVLV
  • 65. 7KH RYHUUHDFWLRQ KSRWKHVLV DQG /DNRQLVKRN HW DO
  • 66. DUJXHG WKDW WKH UHYHUVDO DQG ERRNWRPDUNHW HIIHFWV DUH WKH UHVXOWV RI LQYHVWRU¶V RYHUUHDFWLRQ WR WKH SDVW ILUP SHUIRUPDQFH ,Q FRQWUDVW )DPD DQG )UHQFK
  • 67. DUJXHG WKDW VLQFH SDVW SHUIRUPDQFH LV OLNHO WR EH QHJDWLYHO DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FKDQJHV LQ VVWHPDWLF ULVN KLJK ERRNWRPDUNHW ILUPV DUH OLNHO WR EH ULVNLHU DQG KHQFH UHTXLUH KLJKHU H[SHFWHG UHWXUQV 6RPH HYLGHQFHV H[SODLQHG LQYHVWRUV RYHUUHDFW WR WKH SDVW DFFRXQWLQJ JURZWK UDWHV 2Q WKH FRQWUDU VRPH RWKHU VWXGLHV GRFXPHQWHG WKDW WKH LQFUHDVHG ULVN DQG UHWXUQ RI KLJK ERRNWRPDUNHW ILUP LV WKH UHVXOW RI GLVWUHVV EURXJKW E WKH SRRU SDVW SHUIRUPDQFH 7KH FRQWURYHUV LQ ZKHWKHU LQYHVWRU RYHUFRQILGHQFH RU WKH ULVN DQG UHWXUQ WUDGHRII LV WKH FDXVH RI ERRNWRPDUNHW HIIHFW RU UHWXUQ UHYHUVDO LV WKH PRWLYDWLRQ RI WKH VWXG $SDUW IURP WKH QXPHURXV HYLGHQFHV WKDW HVWDEOLVKHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ JURZWK PHDVXUHV DQG VWRFN UHWXUQV WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DQG WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH UHVXOWV DUH DOVR HTXDOO LPSRUWDQW WR H[SORLW WKH EHQHILWV RI WKH HIIRUWV E LQYHVWPHQW FRPPXQLW 7KH UHWXUQ FRPSULVHV WKH GLYLGHQGV SOXV WKH FDSLWDO JDLQV 7KH IXWXUH SURVSHFWV DQG WKH PDUNHW RSSRUWXQLWLHV GHWHUPLQH WKH GHJUHH RI VWRFN UHWXUQV DQG OHYHO RI LQYHVWPHQWV 6LPLODU WR VWRFN UHWXUQV LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQV LV DQ LPSRUWDQW SKHQRPHQRQ LQ WKH DUHD RI ILQDQFH 7KHUH DUH DOVR VRPH HYLGHQFHV WKDW HVWDEOLVK WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQV DQG OLWHUDF $ VLJQLILFDQW DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ ILQDQFLDO OLWHUDF DQG LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQV E 9DQ 5RRLM HW DO
  • 68. (YHQ WKRXJK WKH ILQDQFLDO FULVLV LQ KDV KHLJKWHQHG WKH LQVWLWXWLRQDO DV ZHOO DV LQGLYLGXDO LQYHVWRUV¶ DZDUHQHVV LQ WKH ILHOG RI ILQDQFLDO GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ 7KH OLWHUDF DQG WKH WHFKQRORJLFDO DGYDQFHPHQW FRQWULEXWH WR H[WUDFW WKH TXDOLW LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ WLPH 7KH HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW WKHUH LV DQ DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ VWRFNKROGLQJ DQG FRPSXWHU DQG ,QWHUQHW XVH %RJDQ
  • 69. 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG /XVDUGL DQG 0LWFKHOO
  •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
  • 71. GHFRPSRVH WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV LQWR D FRPSRQHQW WKDW UHIOHFWV LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW FDVK IORZV DQG D VHFRQG FRPSRQHQW WKDW UHIOHFWV LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW GLVFRXQW UDWHV 'DQLHO DQG 7LWPDQ
  • 72. GHFRPSRVH WKH UHWXUQV LQ WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQV 6LPLODUO WKH VWXG GHFRPSRVH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQWR WZR FRPSRQHQWV WKH ILUVW RQH LV ILUP¶V SDVW DQG FXUUHQW SHUIRUPDQFH WKDW LV GHVFULEHG LQ LWV DFFRXQWLQJ VWDWHPHQWV WUHDWHG DV WDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFK LV UHODWLYHO FRQFUHWH DQG ZKLFK LV E GHILQLWLRQ
  • 74. RUWKRJRQDO WR WKH WDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ LV UHIHU WR DV LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ ,Q OLJKW RI WKH VHSDUDWLRQ RI PDUNHW LQIRUPDWLRQ LQWR WZR FRPSRQHQWV WKH VWXG GHFRPSRVH WKH VWRFN UHWXUQV LQWR WDQJLEOH UHWXUQ ±ZKLFK LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SDVW SHUIRUPDQFH DQG LQWDQJLEOH UHWXUQ ± ZKLFK LV XQUHODWHG ZLWK SDVW SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH ILUP LWVHOI 7KH GHFRPSRVLWLRQ UHVXOWV PLJKW EH XVHIXO WR JUDVS WKH IDU VLJKW LQ WKH FDSLWDO PDUNHW DQG RQH FDQ SHUIRUP ZHOO WKDQ RWKHUV 7KLV VWXG SULPDULO GHDOV ZLWK WKH LVVXHV OLNH ZKDW FDXVHV WKH 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW WR WXUQ GRZQ :KDW DUH WKH RSLQLRQV RI 1HSDOHVH VWRFN LQYHVWRUV RQ LQYHVWPHQW DOWHUQDWLYHV GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ PDUNHW SULFHV DQG VWRFN UHWXUQV :KDW DUH WKH IDFWRUV RI LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ :KDW LV WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI VWRFN LQYHVWRUV ZKLOH WKH HDUQ DQG ZKHQ WKH LQFXU ORVV DQG DOLNH 2EMHFWLYHV RI WKH VWXG 7KH EDVLF REMHFWLYH RI WKH VWXG LV WR DQDO]H WKH PDUNHW UHDFWLRQV WR WDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW 7KH VSHFLILF REMHFWLYH RI WKH VWXG LV WR H[DPLQH WKH LQYHVWRUV¶ RSLQLRQV LQ 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW /LPLWDWLRQV RI WKH VWXG 7KH VWXG KDV EHHQ SHUIRUPHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI VDPSOH DQG VXUYH GDWD WKXV WKH OLPLWDWLRQV RI WKH VDPSOH DQG VXUYH VWXGLHV PLJKW QRW EH GLVFDUGHG 7KH SULPDU GDWD FROOHFWHG LV EDVHG RQ WKH VWUXFWXUHG TXHVWLRQQDLUH VR WKDW WKH EURDGQHVV RI WKH WRSLF PLJKW QRW EH FRYHUHG 7KH UHVSRQGHQWV ZHUH VHOHFWHG WKURXJK WKH RQOLQH ZHE EDVHG
  •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
  • 77. FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI D JLYHQ SRSXODWLRQ ,W GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO VHHN WR H[SODLQ UHODWLRQVKLSV WHVW KSRWKHVLV PDNH SUHGLFWLRQV RU JHW WKH PHDQLQJV DQG LPSOLFDWLRQV RI D VWXG UDWKHU LW LV D SURFHVV RI DFFXPXODWLQJ IDFWV 7KH GHVFULSWLYH UHVHDUFK GHVLJQ LV VHOHFWHG IRU WKH VWXG WR OHDUQ WKH SURILOH RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ DQG WR GHVFULEH WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH LQYHVWRUV LQ WKH 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW 7KH FRUUHODWLRQDO UHVHDUFK GHVLJQ LV XVHG WR REWDLQ WKH GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH SKHQRPHQD DQG WR DVFHUWDLQ WKH H[WHQW RI UHODWLRQVKLS RI WZR YDULDEOHV ,Q JHQHUDO WKH PDJQLWXGH RI D FRUUHODWLRQ GHSHQGV XSRQ WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK DQ LQFUHDVH LQ RQH YDULDEOH LV DFFRPSDQLHG E DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH RWKHU :KHQ WKH FKDQJH LQ RQH YDULDEOH OHDGV WR VSHFLILF FKDQJHV LQ DQRWKHU WKH WZR YDULDEOHV DUH VDLG WR FRYDU RU LQ RWKHU ZRUGV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKHP H[LVW ,Q WKH FRUUHODWLRQDO UHODWLRQVKLS FKDQJHV LQ RQH YDULDEOH DFFRPSDQ FKDQJHV LQ DQRWKHU DQG WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH FKDQJHV UDQJH EHWZHHQ SHUIHFW SRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ
  • 78. WR SHUIHFW QHJDWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ
  •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
  • 80. TXHVWLRQV 7KHVH TXHVWLRQQDLUHV ZHUH SURYLGHG WR WKH UHVSRQGHQWV LQ GLIIHUHQW ORFDWLRQV ZLWKLQ .DWKPDQGX DV SHU FRQYHQLHQFH 7KH SULPDU GDWD ZHUH FROOHFWHG XVLQJ WKUHH GLIIHUHQW PHWKRGV )LUVW VHDUFKHG WKH HPDLO DGGUHVVHV RI LQGLYLGXDOV IURP GLIIHUHQW SXEOLVKHG VRXUFHV OLNH HOORZ SDJHV WKH FRUSRUDWH GLUHFWRU DQG IRUZDUGHG WKHP WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUHV LQ 1HSDOL DQG (QJOLVK PHGLXP WKHQ UHTXHVWHG WKHP WR ILOO LW XS HLWKHU LQ 1HSDOL RU LQ (QJOLVK IRUPDW 7KH VHFRQG ZD ZDV SXEOLVKHG D VXUYH SDUWLFLSDWLRQ UHTXHVW PHVVDJH LQ ZHE EDVHG LQYHVWRUV IRUXP VR WKDW WKH VWRFN LQYHVWRUV FDQ VHQG WKHLU HPDLO DGGUHVV DQG JHW WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH LQYHVWRUV SRVWHG WKHLU HPDLO DGGUHVV IRU WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH UHTXHVW )LQDOO TXHVWLRQQDLUHV ZHUH IRUZDUGHG WR WKH LQYHVWRUV ZKR DUH LQ WKH IDPLO DQG IULHQGV FLUFOH $W WKH WLPH RI WKH GDWD DQDOVLV WRWDO XVHIXO TXHVWLRQQDLUHV ZHUH FROOHFWHG RXW RI GLVWULEXWHG TXHVWLRQQDLUHV 7KXV WKH UHVSRQVH UDWH LV DERXW SHUFHQW ZKLFK LV FRQVLGHUHG DV UHDVRQDEOH 'DWD $QDOVLV 7KH VWXG LQWHQGV WR DQDO]H WKH PDUNHW UHDFWLRQV RI WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG WR DQDO]H WKH LQYHVWRUV¶ EHKDYLRU LQ FDSLWDO PDUNHW 7KH IDFWRU
  •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
  • 84. 7DEOH 3URILOH RI 5HVSRQGHQWV 3DQHO $ (GXFDWLRQDO EDFNJURXQG RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV (GXFDWLRQ $JH *URXS LQ HDUV
  • 85. 7RWDO %HORZ WR $ERYH 1R 1R 1R 1R ,QWHUPHGLDWH %DFKHORUV 0DVWHUV 7RWDO 3DQHO % 6HFWRU RI HPSORPHQW RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV (PSORPHQW $JH *URXS LQ HDUV
  • 86. 7RWDO %HORZ WR $ERYH 1R 1R 1R 1R *RYHUQPHQW 1*2,1*2 3ULYDWH 6HFWRU 6HOIHPSORHG 7RWDO 3DQHO :RUN H[SHULHQFH RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV ([SHULHQFH $JH *URXS LQ HDUV
  • 87. 7RWDO %HORZ WR $ERYH 1R 1R 1R 1R EHORZ HDUV WR HDUV
  • 88. $ERYH HDUV 7RWDO 3DQHO ' /HYHO RI VWRFN LQYHVWPHQW RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV 9ROXPH $JH *URXS LQ HDUV
  •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
  •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
  • 92. 7KH PRVW GHVHUYLQJ DFFRXQWLQJ JURZWK PHDVXUHV DUH GLYLGHQG UHFRUG HDUQLQJV DQQRXQFHPHQW QXPEHU RI RXWVWDQGLQJ FRPPRQ VWRFN DQG ERRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW UDWLR UHVSHFWLYHO LQ VW WR WK UDQNLQJ
  • 94. 7DEOH 5HVSRQVH IRU SRSXODU LQYHVWPHQW VHFWRUV DQG WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ 3DQHO $ 3RSXODU VHFWRU RI LQYHVWPHQW 6HFWRU RI LQYHVWPHQW )UHTXHQF 5DQNLQJ %DQNLQJ DQG ILQDQFH VW ,QVXUDQFH UG +RWHOV WK +GURSRZHU QG 0DQXIDFWXULQJ WK 3DQHO % 3RSXODU LQIRUPDWLRQ SULRU LQYHVWLQJ ,QIRUPDWLRQ WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH
  • 95. )UHTXHQF 5DQNLQJ 'LYLGHQG VW (DUQLQJV QG 1XPEHU RI HTXLW WK %RRNWRPDUNHW HTXLW UG 3DUW 80/ 0DRLVW 1
  • 96. OHG JRYHUQPHQW WK 7DEOH VKRZV WKH SUHIHUHQFH RI LQGLYLGXDO LQYHVWRUV RQ PHWKRGV RI LQYHVWPHQW DQDOVLV 7KH PHWKRGV QXPEHU RI UHVSRQGHQWV PHDQ UHVSRQVH DQG VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ RI WKH UHVSRQVHV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ IXUWKHU FROXPQ UHVSHFWLYHO 7KH SRLQW /LNHUW VFDOH LV XVHG WR FROOHFW WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKHUH UHSUHVHQWV µDOZDV¶ DQG UHSUHVHQWV µQRW DW DOO¶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
  • 98. 7DEOH 0HWKRGV RI LQYHVWPHQW DQDOVLV DQG LQYHVWRUV SUHIHUHQFH 0HWKRGV IRU LQYHVWPHQW DQDOVLV 1 0HDQ 6' $
  • 99. $QDO]H GHEWHTXLW SULFHHDUQLQJV DVVHWV DQG OLDELOLWLHV GLYLGHQGV FDVK IORZ VDOHV HDUQLQJV HVWLPDWHV JURZWK UDWHV HWF %
  • 100. 7UHQG DQDOVLV PRPHQWXP SULFH FFOH DQDOVLV FKDUW DQDOVLV PRYLQJ DYHUDJH HWF %RWK $
  • 101. %
  • 102. 1RLVH LQ WKH PDUNHW QHZVSDSHUV DQG LQIRUPDO WDONV HWF $QDOVLV DQG UHYLVLRQ RI RZQ LQYHVWPHQW LQ GLIIHUHQW DOWHUQDWLYHV 6WRFN LQGLFHV PRYHPHQW LQ IRUHLJQ PDUNHWV $QDO]H WKH JRYHUQPHQW SROLFLHV WD[ UDWHV PDUJLQ OHQGLQJ HWF
  • 103. 7KH QH[W WDEOH FRPSLOHV WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV ZKHQ WKH HDUQV WKH ILUVW FDVH DQG ZKHQ WKH LQFXU ORVV WKH VHFRQG FDVH 7DEOH SUHVHQWV WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH SROO LQ WHUPV RI WKHLU IUHTXHQFLHV DQG WKHLU FRUUHODWLRQ 3DQHO $ VKRZV LQYHVWRUV¶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
  • 105. 7DEOH 3HUFHSWLRQ RI UHVSRQGHQWV RQ VXFFHVV DQG IDLOXUH 3DQHO $ :KHQ RX DUH DEOH WR HDUQ SURILW
  •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
  • 107. , DOZDV HYDOXDWH WKH FRPSDQ SURILOH WUDFN UHFRUGV RI PDQDJHPHQW ;
  • 108. , EHOLHYH WKDW VXFFHVV LQ VWRFN PDUNHW GHSHQGV XSRQ OXFN ;
  • 109. , GRQ¶W NQRZ KRZ WR LQWHUSUHW ILQDQFLDO VWDWHPHQWV LQ D JRRG ZD ;
  • 110. , GRQ¶W NQRZ KRZ WR LQWHUSUHW ILQDQFLDO VWDWHPHQWV LQ D JRRG ZD ;
  • 111. 7KH SULFHV PRYH LQ D GLUHFWLRQ LQFUHDVLQJGHFUHDVLQJ
  • 112. SURYLGHV LQVLJKW DERXW IXWXUH SULFH ;
  • 113. ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR ORRN DW GHEW DQG HTXLW VWUXFWXUH EHIRUH LQYHVWLQJ ;
  • 114. 1HZVPHGLD ODUJHO LQIOXHQFH P LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQ ;
  • 115. 3ROLWLFDO LQVWDELOLW LV QRW WKH PDMRU FDXVH RI VWRFN PDUNHW GRZQWXUQ ;
  • 116. DQG 7KH DQDOVLV RI KLJK DQG ORZ SULFHV LV LPSRUWDQW ZKLOH EXLQJ DQG VHOOLQJ VWRFNV ;
  • 117. SRLQW /LNHUW VFDOLQJ WHFKQLTXHV LV XVHG IRU WKH UHVSRQVH FROOHFWLRQ ZKHUH LQGLFDWHV ³VWURQJO DJUHH´ DQG LQGLFDWHV ³VWURQJO GLVDJUHH´ 7KH 3HDUVRQ¶V FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV DUH WHVWHG DW SHUFHQW OHYHO 7RWDO UHVSRQGHQWV DUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH RSLQLRQ FROOHFWLRQ 7KH FRHIILFLHQWV LQ WKH EUDFNHWV DUH SYDOXHV 6LQFH WKH EDVLF SURFHGXUH LV WKH SUHOLPLQDU VFUHHQLQJ RI WKH UHVSRQVHV WKURXJK WKH FRUUHODWLRQ DQDOVLV WKH IDFWRUV LQ WKH DQDOVLV LV GHVLJQHG LQ VXFK D ZD WKDW
  •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¶V UHFRPPHQGDWLRQ 7KH 06$ UHVXOWV VKRZ WKDW WKH VDPSOH LV DGHTXDWH IRU SHUIRUPLQJ WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV 7KXV WKHUH LV ZD RXW WR SURFHHG WR WKH QH[W VWHS 7KLV WDEOH UHSRUWV WKH $QWLLPDJH FRUUHODWLRQ PDWUL[ 7KH PDLQ GLDJRQDO YDOXHV DUH WKH FRHIILFLHQWV RI WKH 0HDVXUH RI 6DPSOLQJ $GHTXDF 06$
  • 120. ZKLFK VKRXOG EH JUHDWHU WKDQ WR PHHW WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV FULWHULD DV SHU .DLVHU¶V UHFRPPHQGDWLRQ
  • 122. 7DEOH $QWLLPDJH RUUHODWLRQ 0DWUL[ 0HDVXUHV RI 6DPSOLQJ $GHTXDF 06$
  • 123. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ,Q WKH 7DEOH WKH .02¶V 06$ WHVW VKRZ WKH PHDVXUH RI FRUUHODWLRQ SDWWHUQ LQ WKH VDPSOH LV FRQVLGHUHG DV JRRG IRU WKH IXUWKHU DQDOVLV %DUWOHWW¶V WHVW RI 6SKHULFLW ZKLFK LV WKH WHVW RI QXOO KSRWKHVLV RI QR FRUUHODWLRQ DPRQJ WKH YDULDEOHV XQGHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ EXW LW LV UHMHFWHG DW FRQILGHQFH OHYHO VR WKDW WKH IXQGDPHQWDO UHTXLUHPHQW IRU WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV LV IXOILOOHG 7KH WDEOH SUHVHQWV WKH .DLVHU0HHU2ONLQ 0HDVXUH RI 6DPSOLQJ $GHTXDF FRHIILFLHQW DQG %DUWOHWW V 7HVW RI 6SKHULFLW ZLWK DSSUR[LPDWH FKLVTXDUH YDOXH GHJUHH RI IUHHGRP DQG WKH SYDOXH 7KH WHVW LV SHUIRUPHG WR FRQILUP WKH VDPSOLQJ DGHTXDF 7DEOH .02 DQG %DUWOHWW V 7HVW .DLVHU0HHU2ONLQ 0HDVXUH RI 6DPSOLQJ $GHTXDF %DUWOHWW V 7HVW RI 6SKHULFLW $SSUR[ KL6TXDUH GI 6LJ 7DEOH SURGXFHV WKH PDMRU DVSHFWV RI IDFWRU DQDOVLV 7KH LQLWLDO YDULDEOHV KDYH WKH VHSDUDWH OHYHO RI YDULDQFH H[SODLQLQJ SRZHU )RU H[DPSOH WKH VHFRQG YDULDEOH , DOZDV HYDOXDWH WKH FRPSDQ SURILOH WUDFN UHFRUGV RI PDQDJHPHQW H[SODLQ SHUFHQW RI WKH WRWDO YDULDQFH WKURXJK LWV FRQWULEXWLRQ RQ IRXU GLIIHUHQW FRPSRQHQWV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH VSHFLILF YDULDQFH LV WKH SURSRUWLRQ WKDW LV QRW H[SODLQHG E WKH VWDWHG YDULDEOHV ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV SHUFHQWDJH RI WKH WRWDO YDULDWLRQ KDV QRW FRYHUHG E WKH VHFRQG YDULDEOH 7KH VLPLODU LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ LV DSSOLFDEOH IRU UHPDLQLQJ YDULDEOHV DQG LWV FRHIILFLHQWV LQ GLIIHUHQW FROXPQ KHDGLQJV 7KH LQLWLDO (LJHQ YDOXHV LQ WKH IRXUWK ODVW URZ LQGLFDWHV WKH VXP RI VTXDUH RI HDFK IDFWRU ORDGLQJV LQ HDFK FRPSRQHQW )RU LQVWDQFH WKH ILUVW FRPSRQHQW KDV WKH FDSDFLW WR H[SODLQ WKH WRWDO YDULDQFH RI DERXW SHUFHQW ZKHUHDV WKH IRUWK FRPSRQHQW KDV SHUFHQW ,I WKH IRXU FRPSRQHQWV FRPELQH WRJHWKHU WKDW KDV SHUFHQW WRWDO YDULDQFH H[SODQDWLRQ SRZHU :KHQ WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV SURFHHG WR WKH YDULPD[ URWDWHG VROXWLRQ WKH WRWDO YDULDQFH H[SODLQLQJ SRZHU UHPDLQV FRQVWDQW LH SHUFHQW EXW WKH LQGLYLGXDO FRPSRQHQW¶V FDSDFLW WHQG WR FKDQJHV RU FRPH WR TXLWH XQLIRUP ZD 7KH (LJHQ YDOXHV RI WKH URWDWHG VROXWLRQV DQG LWV SHUFHQWDJH RI
  • 125. YDULDQFH H[SODQDWLRQ DUH FKDQJHG 7KH QHJDWLYH IDFWRU ORDGLQJV VKRZ WKH QHJDWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH YDULDEOHV DQG WKH FRPSRQHQWV 7KLV WDEOH VKRZV WKH LQLWLDO VROXWLRQ RI WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV FRPPXQDOLWLHV FRHIILFLHQWV RI WKH YDULDEOHV SUHFHGH WR WKH GDWD UHGXFWLRQ SURFHGXUH 7KH ILUVW FROXPQ LQFOXGHV YDULDEOHV WKH H[WUDFWLRQ FROXPQ LQGLFDWHV WKH SRZHU RI YDULDWLRQ H[SODLQHG E WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ YDULDEOHV DQG WKH VSHFLILF YDULDQFH LV YDULDWLRQ FDXVHV E EHRQG WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ VWDWHG YDULDEOH 7KH H[WUDFWLRQ PHWKRG 3ULQFLSDO RPSRQHQW $QDOVLV 3$
  • 126. LV XVHG 7KH FRPSRQHQWV FRHIILFLHQWV LQGLFDWH WKH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH LQGLYLGXDO YDULDEOH DQG WKH VHOHFWHG FRPSRQHQWV 7KH ODVW IRXU URZV VKRZV WKH LQLWLDO (LJHQYDOXHV DQG SHUFHQWDJH RI YDULDQFH H[SODLQHG E WKH FRPSRQHQWV DQG UHUDWHG (LJHQYDOXHV DV ZHOO DV SHUFHQWDJH RI YDULDQFH H[SODLQHG UHVSHFWLYHO 7DEOH $Q LQLWLDO DQG URWDWHG VROXWLRQ IRU IDFWRU DQDOVLV RPSRQHQW 0DWUL[ ,QLWLDO 6ROXWLRQ
  • 127. RPSRQHQW ([WUDFWLRQ 6SHFLILF 9DULDQFH $QDO]LQJ ILQDQFLDO VWDWHPHQWV LV QRW LPSRUWDQW , DOZDV HYDOXDWH WKH FRPSDQ SURILOH WUDFN UHFRUGV RI PDQDJHPHQW , EHOLHYH WKDW VXFFHVV LQ VWRFN PDUNHW GHSHQGV XSRQ OXFN , GRQ¶W NQRZ KRZ WR LQWHUSUHW ILQDQFLDO VWDWHPHQWV LQ D JRRG ZD , GR QRW XVH WKH DYHUDJH SULFHV PRQWKV U UV HWF
  • 128. WR GHWHUPLQH WKH FXUUHQW SULFHV 7KH SULFHV PRYH LQ D GLUHFWLRQ LQFUHDVLQJGHFUHDVLQJ
  • 129. SURYLGHV LQVLJKW DERXW IXWXUH SULFH ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR ORRN DW GHEW DQG HTXLW VWUXFWXUH EHIRUH LQYHVWLQJ 1HZVPHGLD ODUJHO LQIOXHQFH P LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQ 3ROLWLFDO LQVWDELOLW LV QRW WKH PDMRU FDXVH RI VWRFN PDUNHW GRZQWXUQ 7KH DQDOVLV RI KLJK DQG ORZ SULFHV LV LPSRUWDQW ZKLOH EXLQJ DQG VHOOLQJ VWRFNV ,QLWLDO (LJHQ YDOXHV RI 9DULDQFH ([SODLQHG 5RWDWHG (LJHQ YDOXHV RI 9DULDQFH ([SODLQHG 7KH MXVWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH VHOHFWLRQ RI SULQFLSDO FRPSRQHQWV FDQ EH PDGH WKURXJK WZR ZDV )LUVW RQH LV WKH VWUDLJKW FULWHULRQ XQGHU WKLV FULWHULRQ WKH QXPEHU RI SULQFLSDO FRPSRQHQWV LV HTXDO WR WKH QXPEHU RI (LJHQ YDOXHV JUHDWHU WKDQ 7KH QH[W FULWHULRQ LV WKH VFUHH SORW WKH QXPEHU RI FRPSRQHQWV LV HTXDO WR WKH QXPEHU RI
  • 131. (LJHQYDOXHV JUHDWHU WKDQ ILUVW VFUHH 7KH )LJXUH H[KLELWV WKH VFUHH SORW RI WKH (LJHQYDOXHV EXW WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ LV QRW FOHDUO VKRZQ *HQHUDOO H[FHSW WKH GLIIHUHQW FULWHULD LQ PRVW FDVHV ERWK PHWKRGV GHWHUPLQH WKH VDPH QXPEHU RI FRPSRQHQWV )RXU FRPSRQHQWV KDYH EHHQ GHWHUPLQHG WKURXJK ERWK FULWHULD SDUWLFXODUO IRU WKLV VWXG )LJXUH 7KH 6FUHH 3ORW DQG WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI QXPEHU RI FRPSRQHQWV JUHDWHU WKDQ (LJHQ YDOXHV 7DEOH EHORZ LV WKH ILQDO URWDWHG VROXWLRQ DIWHU RPLWWLQJ WKH WKUHH FURVV ORDGLQJ YDULDEOHV DQG SHUIRUPLQJ WKH VSHFLDO LQYHUVH RSHUDWLRQ IRU YDULDEOH , NQRZ KRZ WR LQWHUSUHW ILQDQFLDO VWDWHPHQWV LQ D JRRG ZD EHFDXVH LW DSSHDUHG WKH QHJDWLYH IDFWRU ORDGLQJV WKH FURVVORDGLQJ WDEOHV DQG LQYHUVH FDOFXODWLRQ KDV QRW EHHQ VKRZQ
  •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
  • 134. 7DEOH 5RWDWHG VROXWLRQ IRU IDFWRU DQDOVLV 5RWDWHG RPSRQHQW 0DWUL[ D
  • 135. RPSRQHQW ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR ORRN DW GHEW DQG HTXLW VWUXFWXUH EHIRUH LQYHVWLQJ , GR XVH WKH DYHUDJH SULFHV PRQWKV U UV HWF
  • 136. WR GHWHUPLQH WKH FXUUHQW SULFHV 3ROLWLFDO LQVWDELOLW LV QRW WKH PDMRU FDXVH RI VWRFN PDUNHW GRZQWXUQ 1HZVPHGLD ODUJHO LQIOXHQFH P LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQ , EHOLHYH WKDW VXFFHVV LQ VWRFN PDUNHW GHSHQGV XSRQ OXFN , NQRZ KRZ WR LQWHUSUHW ILQDQFLDO VWDWHPHQWV LQ D JRRG ZD 7KH SULFHV PRYH LQ D GLUHFWLRQ LQFUHDVLQJGHFUHDVLQJ
  • 137. SURYLGHV LQVLJKW DERXW IXWXUH SULFH 7DEOH LV WKH YHULILFDWLRQ RI WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV 7KH IDFWRU DQDOVLV LV EDVHG RQ WKH FRUUHODWLRQ SDWWHUQV DPRQJ WKH YDULDEOHV 7KH XQFRUUHODWHG YDULDEOHV GR QRW ORQJ ODVW LQ DQDOVLV SURFHGXUH DQG WKRVH YDULDEOHV WKDW DUH KLJKO FRUUHODWHG DOVR QHHG WR EH RPLWWHG EHFDXVH RI WKH VLPLODU QDWXUH RI WZR YDULDEOHV 7KH YDULDQFH H[SODQDWLRQ SRZHU RI HDFK FRPSRQHQW LV GHVLJQHG WKURXJK WKH FRUUHFWLRQDO UHODWLRQVKLS :KHQ WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV SURGXFHV WKH ILQDO RXWFRPHV LQ WHUPV RI VHSDUDWH IDFWRUV RU FRPSRQHQWV HDFK RI WKHP VKRXOG EH VHSDUDWH DQG WKHUH VKRXOG EH WKH FRUUHODWLRQDO UHODWLRQVKLS DPRQJ WKH IDFWRUV 7KH LQWUDYDULDEOH VKRXOG EH KLJKO FRUUHODWHG EXW WKH LQWHUFRPSRQHQWV VKRXOG EH LQGHSHQGHQW 7KXV WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV KDV FRQILUPHG WKDW WKH WDQJLEOH FRPSRQHQWV DUH GHEWHTXLW UDWLR DYHUDJH SULFLQJ LQWHUSUHWLQJ WKH ILQDQFLDO UHSRUWV RU ILJXUHV DQG WKH WUHQG RI WKH VWRFN SULFHV 7KH LQWDQJLEOH FRPSRQHQWV DUH SROLWLFV QHZV DQG PHGLD HIIHFW DQG IDLWK RQ OXFN DUH HVVHQWLDO IRU LQYHVWPHQW GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ 7KH KLJKHVW UHODWLRQVKLS LV QHJDWLYH EHWZHHQ IDFWRU DQG IDFWRU KRZHYHU WKH SYDOXH LV JUHDWHU WKDQ WKXV WKHUH LV QR VLJQLILFDQW UHODWLRQVKLS 6LPLODUO RWKHU H[WUHPH LV ZLWK SYDOXH ZKLFK LV DOVR GRHV QRW DEOH WR HVWDEOLVK WKH VLJQLILFDQW UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH IDFWRUV 7KH UHPDLQLQJ FRHIILFLHQWV OLHV EHWZHHQ WKHP DQG WKHLU SYDOXHV DUH DOVR JUHDWHU WKDQ 7KXV LW LV FRQILUPHG WKDW WKH ILQDO FRPSRQHQWV LHOGHG E WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV DUH LQGHSHQGHQW 7KLV WDEOH UHSRUWV WKH FRUUHODWLRQ PDWUL[ RI WKH ILQDO RXWFRPHV RI WKH IDFWRU DQDOVLV 7KH 3HDUVRQ¶V FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV VKRZ WKH GHJUHH RI UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ FRPSRQHQWV DQG WKH SYDOXHV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ SDUHQWKHVLV 7DEOH RUUHODWLRQ PDWUL[ RI LGHQWLILHG IDFWRUV )DFWRU )DFWRU )DFWRU )DFWRU
  • 138. )DFWRU
  • 139. )DFWRU
  • 140.
  • 142. 21/86,21 :LWK WKH DLP WR DQDO]H WKH PDUNHW UHDFWLRQV WR WDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW WKH GHVFULSWLYH DQG FRUUHODWLRQ UHVHDUFK GHVLJQ KDV EHHQ HPSORHG DQG WKH SULPDU GDWD XVHG IRU WKH DQDOVLV 7KH GDWD KDV EHHQ FROOHFWHG WKURXJK WKH VWUXFWXUHG TXHVWLRQQDLUH IURP WKH VWRFN LQYHVWRUV LQ 1HSDOHVH VWRFN PDUNHW XVLQJ WKH RQOLQH HPDLO
  •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³0DUNHW 5HDFWLRQV WR 7DQJLEOH DQG ,QWDQJLEOH ,QIRUPDWLRQ $ DVH RI 1HSDO´ IXQGHG E WKH 8QLYHUVLW *UDQWV RPPLVVLRQ
  • 145. 5()(5(1( %DQ] 5 : 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ UHWXUQV DQG PDUNHW YDOXH WR FRPPRQ VWRFNV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFLDO (FRQRPLFV 9RO 3S %DUEHULV 1 $ 6KOHLIHU DQG 5 9LVKQ $ PRGHO RI LQYHVWRU VHQWLPHQW -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFLDO (FRQRPLFV 9RO 3S %DVX 6 ,QYHVWPHQW SHUIRUPDQFH RI FRPPRQ VWRFNV LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKHLU SULFH HDUQLQJV UDWLRV $ WHVW RI WKH HIILFLHQW PDUNHW KSRWKHVLV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO 3S %KDQGDUL / 'HEWHTXLW UDWLR DQG H[SHFWHG FRPPRQ VWRFN UHWXUQV (PSLULFDO HYLGHQFH -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO 3S %RJDQ 9 6WRFN PDUNHW SDUWLFLSDWLRQ DQG WKH LQWHUQHW -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFLDO DQG 4XDQWLWDWLYH $QDOVLV 9RO
  • 146. 3S DPSEHOO - $ YDULDQFH GHFRPSRVLWLRQ IRU VWRFN UHWXUQV (FRQRPLF -RXUQDO 9RO SS KDQ / . +DPDR DQG - /DNRQLVKRN )XQGDPHQWDOV DQG VWRFN UHWXUQV LQ -DSDQ -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 147. 3S 'DQJRO - 6WRFN PDUNHW HIILFLHQF DQG SUHGLFWDELOLW RI SULFHV LQ 1HSDO 03KLO 3URMHFW :RUN 7ULEKXYDQ 8QLYHUVLW
  • 148. 'DQLHO . ' DQG 6 7LWPDQ (YLGHQFH RQ WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI FURVVVHFWLRQDO YDULDWLRQ LQ FRPPRQ VWRFN UHWXUQV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 149. 3S 'DQLHO .' DQG 6 7LWPDQ 0DUNHW (IILFLHQF LQ DQ ,UUDWLRQDO :RUOG 1%(5 :RUNLQJ SDSHU VHULHV 'DQLHO . ' DQG 6 7LWPDQ 0DUNHW UHDFWLRQV WR WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ 7KH -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 150. 3S 'H%RQGW : ) 0 DQG 5 + 7KDOHU 'RHV WKH VWRFN PDUNHW RYHUUHDFW -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 151. 3S 'H/RQJ - % $ 6KOHLIHU / 6XPPHUV DQG 5 - :DOGPDQQ 3RVLWLYH IHHGEDFN LQYHVWPHQW VWUDWHJLHV DQG GHVWDELOL]LQJ UDWLRQDO VSHFXODWLRQ -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 152. 3S (LQKRUQ + - DQG 5 0 +RJDUWK RQILGHQFH LQ -XGJHPHQW 3HUVLVWHQFH RI WKH ,OOXVLRQ RI 9DOLGLW 3VFKRORJLFDO 5HYLHZ 9RO 1R 3S (LQKRUQ + - 2YHUFRQILGHQFH LQ MXGJPHQW 1HZ 'LUHFWLRQV IRU 0HWKRGRORJ RI 6RFLDO DQG %HKDYLRUDO 6FLHQFH 9RO 3S ± (QJHOEHUJ - ( DQG $ 3DUVRQV 7KH FDXVDO LPSDFW RI PHGLD LQ ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 153. 3S )DPD ( ) RPSRQHQWV RI LQYHVWPHQW SHUIRUPDQFH -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 154. 3S )DPD ( ) 0DUNHW HIILFLHQF ORQJWHUP UHWXUQV DQG EHKDYLRUDO )LQDQFH -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFLDO (FRQRPLFV 9RO 3S )DPD ( ) DQG . )UHQFK 7KH FURVVVHFWLRQ RI H[SHFWHG VWRFN UHWXUQV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 155. 3S )DPD ( ) DQG . )UHQFK 6L]H DQG ERRNWRPDUNHW IDFWRUV LQ HDUQLQJV DQG UHWXUQV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 156. 3S )DPD ( ) DQG . )UHQFK 0XOWLIDFWRU H[SODQDWLRQV RI DVVHW SULFLQJ DQRPDOLHV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 157. 3S )DPD ( ) DQG - 0DF%HWK 5LVN UHWXUQ DQG HTXLOLEULXP (PSLULFDO WHVWV -RXUQDO RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP 9RO
  • 158. 3S
  • 160. )DQJ / DQG - 3HUHVV 0HGLD FRYHUDJH DQG WKH FURVVVHFWLRQ RI VWRFN UHWXUQV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 161. 3S +DXJHQ 5 $ DQG 1 / %DNHU RPPRQDOLW LQ WKH GHWHUPLQDQWV RI H[SHFWHG VWRFN UHWXUQV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFLDO (FRQRPLFV 9RO 3S ,NHQEHUU ' - /DNRQLVKRN DQG 7 9HUPDHOHQ 0DUNHW XQGHUUHDFWLRQ WR RSHQ PDUNHW VKDUH UHSXUFKDVHV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFLDO (FRQRPLFV 9RO 3S -DJDGHHVK 1 DQG 6 7LWPDQ 5HWXUQV WR EXLQJ ZLQQHUV DQG VHOOLQJ ORVHUV ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU VWRFN PDUNHW HIILFLHQF -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO 3S . , ' 7KH FURVV VHFWLRQ RI H[SHFWHG VWRFN UHWXUQV 7KH 1HSDOHVH (YLGHQFH 03KLO 3URMHFW :RUN 7ULEKXYDQ 8QLYHUVLW
  • 162. .RWKDUL 6 3 - 6KDQNHQ DQG 5 * 6ORDQ $QRWKHU ORRN DW WKH FURVVVHFWLRQ RI H[SHFWHG UHWXUQ -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 163. 3S .RWKDUL 6 3 - : /HZHOOHQ DQG - % :DUQHU 6WRFN 5HWXUQV $JJUHJDWH (DUQLQJV 6XUSULVHV DQG %HKDYLRUDO )LQDQFH -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFLDO (FRQRPLFV
  • 164. 3S /DNRQLVKRN - $ 6KOHLIHU DQG 5 : 9LVKQ RQWUDULDQ LQYHVWPHQW H[WUDSRODWLRQ DQG ULVN -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 165. 3S /XVDUGL $ DQG 2 6 0LWFKHOO )LQDQFLDO OLWHUDF DQG SODQQLQJ ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU UHWLUHPHQW ZHOOEHLQJ 3HQVLRQ 5HVHDUFK RXQFLO :3 0DUNRZLW] + 3RUWIROLR VHOHFWLRQ -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO 3S 3DQGHD 5HODWLYH VWUHQJWK LQ SHUIRUPDQFH RI VKDUH SULFHV LQ 1HSDO $ ZHDN IRUP WHVW RI FDSLWDO PDUNHW HIILFLHQF 03KLO 3URMHFW :RUN 7ULEKXYDQ 8QLYHUVLW
  • 166. 3UDGKDQ 56 6WRFN PDUNHW EHKDYLRU LQ D VPDOO FDSLWDO PDUNHW $ FDVH RI 1HSDO 7KH 1HSDOHVH 0DQDJHPHQW 5HYLHZ 9RO
  • 167. 3S 3UDGKDQ 5 6 DQG 6 % %DODPSDNL )XQGDPHQWDOV RI VWRFN UHWXUQV LQ 1HSDO 6(%21 -RXUQDO 9RO
  •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
  • 169. 3S =DURZLQ 3 'RHV WKH VWRFN PDUNHW RYHUUHDFW WR FRUSRUDWH HDUQLQJV LQIRUPDWLRQ -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 170. 3S =KDQJ ; ) ,QIRUPDWLRQ 8QFHUWDLQW DQG 6WRFN 5HWXUQV -RXUQDO RI )LQDQFH 9RO
  • 171. 3S