Tom Malone - Program for the Future Dec. 8

[object Object],The landscape of collective intelligence: Mapping the collective intelligence “genome” Copyright © 2008 Thomas W. Malone. All rights reserved. Presentation at the Program for the Future Conference, San Jose, CA, December 8, 2008

What is collective intelligence? ,[object Object],[object Object]

New examples of collective intelligence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Question How can people and computers be connected so that — collectively— they act more intelligently than any person, group, or computer has ever done before?

Mapping collective intelligence “genomes” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Collaborators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Every activity must have genes to answer four questions What How Who Why Strategy Structure (Grouping) Process (Linking) Incentives (Alignment) Staffing

Example: Genetic structure of Linux What How Who Why Who Crowd Hierarchy (Torvalds et al) What Creates software modules Decide which modules to include How As a collaboration As a hierarchy Why For fun, reputation, etc. For fun, reputation, etc

Who? Who does the activity? Hierarchy One or a few people from a small, preselected group Selecting modules for Linux Crowd Anyone who wants to in a large group Editing Wikipedia

When is the Crowd gene useful? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Why? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When are the Why genes useful? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Failure to get motivational factors right is probably the single greatest cause of failure in collective intelligence experiments.

Types of organizational genes What How Who Why Crowd Hierarchy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How? Crowd Independent Dependent Create Collection Collaboration Decide Many-to-many network Group decision

How? Crowd Independent Dependent Create ,[object Object],[object Object],Collaboration Decide Many-to-many network Group decision

Gene: Collection ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

InnoCentive ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Gene: Contest ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When is the Collection gene useful? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When is the Contest gene useful? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Gene: Collaboration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Climate Collaboratorium ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When is the Collaboration gene useful? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How? Crowd Independent Dependent Create Collection Collaboration Decide Many-to-many network ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Schaumburg Flyers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Kasparov vs. the World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Gene: Prediction markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

HP’s prediction markets (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Other prediction markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Collective prediction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When are the Group Decision genes useful? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How? Crowd Independent Dependent Create Collection Collaboration Decide ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Group decision

Many-to-many network examples ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When are the Many-to-many Network genes useful? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How? Crowd Independent Dependent Create ,[object Object],[object Object],Collaboration Decide ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How? Examples Crowd Independent Dependent Create ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Decide ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Types of organizational genes What How Who Why Create Decide Crowd Few ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Crowd Independent Dependent Create Collection Collaboration Decide Many-to-many network Group decision

Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What´s coming? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What´s coming? (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object]

What´s coming? (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Tom Malone - Program for the Future Dec. 8

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