Powerpoint presentation from "The Future of El Camino Real Is In Your Hands", hosted by TransForm.

1. Rethinking How We Get Around: Sunnyvale
Ria Hutabarat Lo, PhD
11 September, 2014
Source: Ria Hutabarat Lo

2. What is the problem?

3. How did we get here?

4. Where is congestion from?
■Cities have faced congestion for a centuries
–As cities succeed in attracting people from other places, congestion occurs
–Congestion is an economic issue: demand > supply
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Silicon Valley Semiconductor Wafer
Source: Ria Hutabarat Lo
Manchester Murray’s Mills, 1831
Source: thehumanjourney.net

5. How have we dealt with congestion?
■Western cities historically addressed traffic like sewage
–The first Western traffic engineers were sanitation engineers
–Gravity models  atomistic travel demand models
–Fluid dynamics  vehicle flow
■Traffic engineering approaches were institutionalized
–Travel demand models to predict
–Design standards to help provide
–Metrics to measure performance
■The institutions have been biased and incomplete
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6. What are transportation institutions?
1. Trip Generation
(pop & jobs by zone)
2. Trip Distribution
(gravity model)
3. Mode Split
(fn trip type, income…)
4. Route Assignment
(based on travel times)
4-STEP MODEL

7. What is the problem with predictions?
S1
Travel time (cost)
Q, Traffic Flow (veh/hour)
Q1
T1
D1
Q2
T2
S2
T1b
INDUCED TRAVEL DEMAND

8. What is the problem with predictions?
D1
S1
S2
Travel time (cost)
Q, Traffic Flow (veh/hour)
D3
Q1
Q2
Q3
T1
T2
T1b
T3
INDUCED TRAVEL DEMAND + INDUCED INVESTMENT

9. What are transportation institutions? HCM’s LOS
Level of Service (LOS)
Signalized Intersection
Unsignalized Intersection
A
≤10 sec
≤10 sec
B
10-20 sec
10-15 sec
C
20-35 sec
15-25 sec
D
35-55 sec
25-35 sec
E
55-80 sec
35-50 sec
F
≥80 sec
≥50 sec

10. Traffic engineering:
F
A
A
F
Economics :
Photo: http://www.partyearth.com/boston/festivals/berklee-beantown-jazz-festival- 1/the-2013-berklee-beantown-jazz-festival-1/
Photo: John Welch, http://thettablog.blogspot.com/2010/05/boston- may-22-noon-very-bright.html
What is the problem with performance measures?
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11. What are the results of this approach?
■Roads are widened & designed for fast traffic
■Cities are still congested
■Places are auto-oriented
■Can’t go places without car
■Injury, emissions, inactivity & isolation
■Worst impacts on the poor, people with disabilities, seniors & children
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Source: FHWA

12. Is there another way to deal with transportation problems?
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13. NelsonNygaard Consulting Associates, Inc.
Is there another way to predict demand?
Connected Cities

14. Destinations in Silicon Valley
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■ Where are:
– jobs?
– services?
– people’s homes?
■ Are destinations
– connected to each
other?
– walkable?
– concentrated around
transit?
Adaptive Cities
e.g. Stockholm, Copenhagen, Tokyo, Singapore
Source: Robert Cervero, Transit Metropolis

15. Why do we need rapid transit?
■Santa Clara County will add 600k residents, 300k jobs by 2040
■Which mode do we want for additional trips on El Camino Real?
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Source: Cycling Promotion Fund

16. What is Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)?
■Unique branding
■Widely-spaced “station stops” with amenities
–realtime bus arrival information
■Good ped/bike connections
■Coordination with connecting services
■Signal timing, signal priority, queue jump
■Frequent service
■Low-floor, multi-door boarding
■Off-board fare collection
■Dedicated lanes
Full BRT Rapid Bus

17. What are the BRT proposals & impacts for El Camino Real?
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18. Alphabet Soup and El Camino Real
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■Regional agencies (MTC/ABAG) developed Plan Bay Area 2013
–Plan Bay Area identified Priority Development Areas (PDAs), including El Camino Real
■VTA is pursuing a BRT project on El Camino Real
–Releasing DEIS, October 2014
–Presenting locally preferred alternative, February 2015
■Grand Boulevard Initiative (GBI) recognized VTA’s El Camino BRT project 2013
–Revitalize El Camino Real
–Create nodes for economic and housing opportunities
–Create walkable, bikeable, transit-friendly Complete Street
Source: VTA 2014

19. Alternative 1: Do Nothing
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Source: VTA 2014

20. VTA’s estimate impacts of Alternative 1: Do Nothing
■Transit quality: speeds & on-time reliability decline
■Transit ridership: grows with population and jobs
■Auto speed & capacity: unchanged, road retains same feel
■Safety: No improvements
■Cost: $0 (capital) + $0.8 million (operating)
■Farebox recovery: no change
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Source: VTA 2014

21. Alternative 2: Mixed Flow
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Source: VTA 2014

22. Alternative 3A: Do Nothing / Mixed Flow+
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Source: VTA 2014

23. Alternative 3B: Mixed Flow+
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Source: VTA 2014

24. VTA’s estimate impacts of Alternative 2: Mixed Flow
■Transit quality: 9% faster than Do Nothing
■Transit ridership: grows 4% faster than Do Nothing
■Auto speed & capacity: unchanged, road retains same feel
■Safety: Curb bulbouts shorten crossings at stations
■Cost: Measure A (capital), $1.9 million saving (operating)
■Farebox recovery: grows $0.9 million
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Source: VTA 2014

25. Alternative 4A: Partial Dedicated Lanes
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Source: VTA 2014

26. Alternative 4B: Partial Dedicated Lanes
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Source: VTA 2014

27. Alternative 4C: Full BRT
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Source: VTA 2014

28. VTA’s estimate impacts of Alternative 4: Dedicated Lanes
■Transit quality: 80% faster, frequent, reliable
■Transit ridership: grows 23% faster than Do Nothing
■Auto speed & capacity: 7% slower, route shifting in peak
■Safety: Bike lanes, shorter & new signalized crossings
■Funding: Msr A + $75M FTA (capital), $7M saving (operating)
■Farebox recovery: up to $1.5 M
■
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Source: VTA 2014

29. What now?
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30. Where to now?
■We all have an opportunity to participate in the production of space and the future of El Camino Real
■Participate in the planning process, talk with leaders and people in your community
■Consider the values with which we plan this space:
–Ecological sustainability?
–Social inclusion?
–Economic dynamism?
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31. NELSONNYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES © 2013
Ria Hutabarat Lo, PhD
116 New Montgomery Street
San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 281-1544
rlo@nelsonnygaard.com