3. 3
IEEE
World’s largest professional association
more than 395,000 members in more than 160
countries; 45 percent from outside the US
Leading developer of voluntary, consensus-based
international standards involving today's leading-
edge electrotechnologies
portfolio of more than 900 active standards and more
than 400 standards in development
4. 4
IEEE-USA
IEEE-USA advances the public good and promotes
the careers and public policy interests of more
than 215,000 engineers, scientists and allied
professionals who are U.S. members of the IEEE.
“Building Careers and Shaping Public Policy”
5. 5
Energy Policy Committee
Made up mostly of power systems engineering
professionals and academics from across the US
Expertise in areas such as:
Power generation, transmission and distribution
Alternative energy resources
Nuclear power
Power system reliability
Smart Grid
Efficiency
Electric transportation
6. 6
Energy Situation
Energy underlies three converging challenges
facing the United States
Economic Prosperity
National Security
Environmental Protection
Electricity can play a key role, but,
substantial pressures to respond to environmental concerns
deal with uncertainties in both local and global energy supplies
accommodate the rapid evolution of new generation sources and
technology options available to its users
7. 7
All Eyes on Electricity Generation
Electric utility sector accounts for about a third of
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
Over 40% of electricity generated by coal
8. 8
Electricity – Engine of Progress
Source: Annual Energy Review 2010, DOE/EIA-0384(2010), October 2011
Electrification
• Electricity use is
increasing in both
absolute and
RELATIVE terms
Increasing energy
productivity
• It takes less-and-less
energy to fuel the
economy0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
%primaryenergyusedforelectricity
ThousandBtu/chained(2005)dollars
Energy
Use/$GDP
Electricity
Fraction
9. 9
Recommendations
Pursuing energy efficiency and demand response
http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/EnergyEfficiency1110.pdf
Transforming transportation by diversifying
energy sources
Greening the electric power supply
Building a stronger and smarter electrical energy
infrastructure
Cyber and critical power, and energy
infrastructure security
11. 11
Separated by Common Language?
billion = 109 vs 1012 in Europe
1012 = trillion
Quad (quadrillion) = 1015 Btu
MBtu could be 1 thousand Btu
MMBtu is 1 million Btu
Even the definition of efficiency is not consistent!
Fuel energy content HHV vs LHV
Efficiencies in Europe are 5 – 10% higher (or as high as
18% for H2 fuel cell)
12. 12
Transportation
National Security Risk
Almost entirely oil
2/3 of entire petroleum use
Reduce Emissions
Cannot capture dispersed emissions
13. 13
Transforming Transportation by
Diversifying Energy Sources
Electrifying Transportation: Plug-In and Hybrid
Electric Vehicles
Developing and Using Alternative Transportation
Fuels
14. 14
TRANSPORTATION
About 30% of GHG Emissions
Source: Conti, J., U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transportation Sector, Asilomar presentation, July 2009
15. 15
Where the Energy Goes
Source: EPA, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (Feb. 2, 2012)
GASOLINE
ENGINE
EFFICIENCY
Tank
-to-
Wheels
14 –16%
16. 16
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Well to refinery = .95
Refining to gasoline = .85
Gasoline delivery = .97
Tank to wheels = .14 – .16
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
17. 17
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Delivered to power plant = .95
Power generation = .35 - .45
Transmission and distribution = .90 - .93
Plug to battery = .80 - .90
Battery to wheels = .80 - .90
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
18. 18
Vehicle Efficiency Well-to-Wheels
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 27% to 42%
19. 19
Electricity to the Rescue!
VEHICLE EFFICIENCY WELL-TO-WHEELS
Oil – Gasoline – Mechanical Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 11% to 13%
Coal – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 19% to 32%
Natural Gas – Electricity – Electric Drive Wheel
Efficiency of 27% to 42%
20. 20
Greenhouse Gases Reduced
Source: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007
GHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY
ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 37.9 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEV
21. 21
GHG Reduced
Source: Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles, Vol. 1, EPRI-NRDC July 2007
ASSUMPTIONS: 24.6 mpg for conventional, 50 mpg for hybrids, and 49% miles driven on electricity for PHEV
GHG EMISSIONS FOR PHEV-20 CHARGED FROM SPECIFIC POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGY
25. 25
Greening the Electric Power
Supply
Expanding the Use of Renewable Electric
Generation
Revitalizing Nuclear Power Generation
Reducing Carbon Emissions from Fossil Power
Plants
26. 26
Generation by Fuel 2010
Issues by Fuel Source
Coal
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
27. 27
COAL
30% installed capacity
Till recently about ½ of electricity generation
One of our most abundant resources
28. 28
Regulatory Pressures
Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for new and
existing plants
Coal Combustion Residuals Regulation (coal ash
disposal)
Performance standards for emissions of carbon
dioxide (new and major retrofit)
Virtually every coal plant must
RETROFIT, RETIRE OR REPOWER
29. 29
Ag(e)ing Fleet
About 50% of all capacity and 73% of coal-fired capacity
was 30 years or older at the end of 2010
30. 30
~50 GW of Coal-fired Generation
Expected to Retire by 2020
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) and http://www.flickr.com/photos/usgao/7801651396/sizes/o/in/photostream/
31. 31
NATURAL GAS
Less expensive than just about any other form of
generation
EIA estimate: 60% of capacity additions between
now and 2035
May slow momentum or displace renewables
New power system issues
Fuel supply
Balancing requirements
33. 33
How Long Before Prices Go Up?
Source: FERC Market Snapshot, Sept. 2012 (http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-snp-sht/2012/08-2012-snapshot-ne.pdf)
36. 36
The Future of Tax Credits for
Solar & Wind?
Source: RenewablesBiz Daily, Sept. 12, 2012
37. 37
State Incentives Account for About
½ of capacity added 2010-11
Source: DSRI (Database for State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency)/ US Partnership for Renewable Finance
Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies..
www.dsireusa.org / September 2012.
29 states,+
Washington DC and 2
territories,have
Renewable Portfolio
Standards
(8 states and 2 territories have
renewable portfolio goals).
38. 38
Where Will Electricity Come From?
Coal in decline for the foreseeable future
High risk (carbon regulation uncertain)
No CCS scheme has yet been piloted, let alone demonstrated
at scale
Large-scale move to gas; incl. coal conversions
Renewables will grow even in absence of federal
carbon policy
And the rest? Nuclear? What will it take?
39. 39
NUCLEAR
Traditionally the lowest cost electricity
BUT
Public acceptance issues
High initial cost a significant barrier
40. 40
Nuclear Fleet Aging Too
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=228&t=21
The average age of U.S. commercial reactors is
about 32 years
The oldest entered commercial service in 1969
The last newly built reactor entered service in 1996
Tennessee Valley Authority is completing an on-site
addition planned to begin operation in 2013
U.S. commercial nuclear reactors are licensed to
operate for 40 years by the U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC).
42. 42
Two Plants Licensed Early 2012
…More to Come
Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 2012 (http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html)
Location of Projected New Nuclear Power Reactors
43. 43
Major Recommendations/ Nuclear
Comprehensive spent nuclear fuel management
program that would close the fuel cycle and
develop a disposal facility as mandated by the
Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982
Advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies
to reduce proliferation concerns, and to reduce
the volume and lifetime of wastes
45. 45
U.S. Network
Current U.S. electric grid is a network of
10,000 power plants
170,000 miles of high-voltage (>230 kV) transmission
lines
Millions of miles of lower-voltage distribution lines
More than 15,000 substations
47. 47
Electricity Industry Restructuring
Many players
Not necessarily
conducive to
cooperation or
optimal system
design
Market
efficiency vs.
system
efficiency
Competition
Local
Regulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
SCSC MOMO
MEME TOTO
SOSO
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
Competition
Local
Regulation
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Federal
Regulation
RC MO
BA TO
TOP
SC - Security Coordinator
MO - Market Operator
SO - System Operator
TO - Transmission Owner
RC-
MO - Market Operator
TOP -
- Transmission Owner
Retail sales
Competition?
RC– Reliability Coordinator
MO – Market Operator
TOP – TransmissionOperator
BA – Balancing Authority
TO – TransmissionOwner
48. 48
The Parties to the System
Different utility types: IOU, Municipal, rural
Vertically integrated, restructured, holding
companies
Independent (merchant) generators
Demand response providers (aggregators)
Transmission owners
State regulators, NERC (North American Electric
Reliability Corporation), FERC (Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission)
50. 50
NERC Regions & Balancing
Authorities
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)
51. 51
ISO/RTO* Map
Sources: NERC and 2012 National Electric Transmission Congestion Study presentation, Aug. 2012
About two
thirds of
the
country
have
organized
markets
*) ISO – Independent System Operator, RTO – Regional Transmission Organization
54. 54
Transmission Congestion Costs
Source: U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Sept. 26, 2011, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3230
Transmission congestion drives power price division between upstate
and downstate New York
56. 56
Major Infrastructure Issues
Increasingly complex and competitive bulk power
market is adding stress to the grid
Grid congestion and higher transmission losses
Higher rates for electricity
Market design and grid expansion must maintain
adequate levels of grid reliability
Reinforcing the grid and deploying advanced
technologies critical for the nation
57. 57
Markets vs. Electricity
Market equilibrium on top of Kirchhoff's circuit
laws topology
Need for new specialty:
Market design w/electrical engineering foundation
58. 58
Building a Stronger and Smarter
Electrical Energy Infrastructure
Transforming the Network into a Smart Grid
Expanding the Transmission System
Accommodating New Types of Generation and
New Loads
Variable generation
Local generation, PV, microgrids
Plug-in vehicles
63. 63
For More Information
www.ieeeusa.org
http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energy
policy0211.pdf
www.ieeeusa.org/communications/ebooks
VRabl@Vision-Results.com