Ch. 14 The Future of American Schooling - Dr. William Allan Kritsonis

1. CHAPTER 14–THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN SCHOOLING
PAGE 70
This book is protected under the Copyright Act of 1976. Uncited Sources,
Violators will be prosecuted. Courtesy, National FORUM Journals
CHAPTER 14
THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN SCHOOLING
KEY POINTS
1. The future is very difficult to predict.
2. In order to be as ready as possible for tomorrow, we need to attempt to
predict the future.
3. Worldwide areas that must be considered include population, geopolitical
situations, and natural resources.
4. The population of the world is growing dramatically.
5. The future of public education is directly linked to the future of the world.
6. The population of the United States will have an impact on public
education.
7. The future curriculum will likely be determined by a wide variety of
people and groups.
8. Technology will continue to be a leading factor in the future of education.
9. Some predictions have already proved accurate while others are not likely
to occur.
Copyright © 2005
William Kritsonis
All Rights Reserved / Forever

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CHAPTER 14–THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN SCHOOLING
A. OVERVIEW
Chapter 14 presents information regarding the future of education in the United
States. The beginning section discusses futurism. The nature of futurism, why
we study the future, and global concerns regarding futurism are discussed. The
final section focuses on the future of education. Although difficult to predict, in
order to be prepared for the rapidity of social and technological changes,
attempts to determine the future needs of our society must be made.
B. KEY TERMS–DEFINITIONS
CURRICULUM - all experiences provided to students in schools.
DECLINING RESOURCES - petroleum, water, natural ores, and forests.
ENROLLMENT - the number of students attending a school at any given time.
FUTURE - is tomorrow and the day after; the entire period ahead.
FUTURISM - the study of the future, including global concerns and more
regional or local matters.
FUTURIST - one that studies the future.
GEOPOLITICS - political status of all countries in the world.
GLOBAL CONCERNS - include changes in population, geopolitics, and
human and natural resources.
POPULATION TRENDS - the population of the U.S. has a great impact on
public education. Since the early 1960s, the population trend of the U.S. has
slowed markedly. In the 2000s, the average growth in the U.S. population is
expected to be 1.5-2.0 million per year (1,500,000-2,000,000).
PREDICTIONS - predicting the future.
WORLD HUNGER - the overpopulation of the world not only affects natural
resources but also the ability of the world to feed itself. The future will see
many crises related to a lack of food and the result of starvation.

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C. SOME PRECEDING THOUGHTS
1. What is futurism?
A philosophical position and a movement in education designed to shift
emphasis from the current era to the needs that will emerge in a period of
rapid change.
2. Why should futurism be studied?
People cannot continue to let history repeat itself. If people can learn from
these failures and prevent their recurring, then humanity will be better off.
While people are capable of destroying the planet, they are also capable of
saving it.
3. What is the global population trend?
The world population is increasing extremely rapidly.
4. What are the projected dates for the depletion of some natural
resources?
Petroleum reserves–2020
Natural gas–2047
Uranium–2017
5. What role does geopolitics play in the future?
Many countries hold different political ideologies. This creates tension that
will only make it more difficult to solve the problems that will face earth
for the remainder of the 21st
century.
6. How can the educational system change to meet the needs of the
future?
a. move to the center of societal interaction by implementing cross-
generalization, nonformal, location-free social service programs;
b. reorient itself to a new conception of information based on
interdependence and cooperation, and on a new psychology of man
based on Maslovian principles and diversity;
c. present values about educational change–sameness and objectivity–
must be radically altered.
7. What is the population trend in the United States?
Since the middle 1960s, the birth population growth in the United States
has decreased.

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8. How does the U.S. population trend affect planning for public
education?
A changing school population will continue to impact the educational
system for the next decade.
9. How can educational reforms be evaluated?
a. performance evaluators;
b. overall studies of the financial impact of reforms;
c. analysis of cost-effectiveness of various state interventions with the
same specific objectives;
d. program evaluation;
e. impact of evaluation of several state interventions with the same
general goal;
f. studies of the cumulative effects of all state reforms in omnibus bills;
g. research that isolates cause and effect relationships.
10. What will the curriculum in the future include?
Some conclusion concerning the future curriculum can be drawn from
literature. The basic academic curriculum will continue to be stressed. The
nature of this basic curriculum will be determined at state and local levels,
with strong recommendations at the national level. There will, however, be
an increased emphasis on math and science, along with technology.
11. What role will technology play in the future?
a. improve instruction in conventional subjects;
b. allow the efficient teaching of types of knowledge and skills previously
too expensive to include in the curriculum;
c. improve research into the teaching/learning process;
d. expand the number of students per teacher without increasing costs or
decreasing quality.
12. What is the status of predictions made in 1974 concerning education?
Obviously, some of the predictions made more than three decades ago are
on their way to coming to fruition; others will never occur. Still others,
while not achieved at this point, still have a chance to occur.

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D. DISCUSSION QUESTIONS AND EXERCISES
1. Why should we study the future?
By studying the future, policy makers and leaders will be more capable of
preparing for what will occur in the next 12, 20, or even 50 years.
Studying and forecasting the future are important for several reasons.
People cannot continue to let history repeat itself. The world has
experienced many failures; if people can learn from these failures and
prevent their recurring, then humanity will be better off.
2. What issues are general futurists concerned with?
a. population trends;
b. natural resources;
c. curriculum for the future;
d. technology of the future.
3. What issues are educational futurists concerned with?
a. population trends;
b. maintaining school reforms;
c. curriculum for the future;
d. technology of the future.
4. What kind of moral problems might surface in the future that might
lead to turbulent controversies in regard to intelligent machines?
a. Some authorities indicate that a machine can think like or better than a
human being. If a computer can, does it have rights?
b. If a machine has rights, does it have the right not to be turned off?
c. If a machine can be turned off against its will, must some guaranteed
backup be provided that will keep in existence its memories and
program (habits) while it is being unplugged (sleeping)?
d. If the machine desired not to be turned off, must its wishes be heeded
by the people who made it?
e. Will it be hard to deny the machine rights guaranteed to persons by the
constitutions of numerous nations?
f. Will the right to not be turned off (life), to choose its own mode of
operation (liberty), to learn whatever it chooses to learn (the pursuit of
happiness) be denied to machines?

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g. If people enslave machines, will the machines object? Will large
numbers of people protest in behalf of the machines?
Source: Van Doren, C. (1991). A history of knowledge. New York: Ballantine Books. Adapted
with special permission.
5. What is meant in reference to the “biomass of the earth”?
a. The “biomass of the earth” means the total weight of the living things
on it, in it, and above it in the atmosphere.
b. The earth’s biomass is about seventy-five thousand million tons.
c. What are current approximations of the “biomass of the earth”?
Biomass Millions
Human beings (six billion persons) 250
Animals
Livestock
Cattle
Sheep, goats, etc.
Hogs
Chickens, ducks, geese, etc.
520
75
100
10
Pets
Large wild animals (lions, eagles, whales,
aardvarks, mustangs, elephants, etc.)
Small wild animals (rats, mice, frogs, toads,
worms, etc.)
Insects, bacteria etc.
Fish and crustaceans
5
10
15
15
1,000
Plants
Crops
Other land plants
Trees
Seaweed and other aquatic plants
2,000
8,000
39,000
24,000
Total Biomass of Earth (2003) 75,000
d. It is apparent that human beings account for about one-quarter of one
percent of the earth’s biomass, however, human beings account for
99% of all the pollution.
e. There is room on earth for another five billion human beings if they are
willing to play the part of good terrestrial neighbors.
Source: Van Doren, C. (1991). A history of knowledge. New York: Ballantine Books. Adapted
with special permission.

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6. Why does the human race seem to be addicted to traveling with great
speed and its result in causing stress?
a. Human beings strive to go faster in almost every sense of the
imagination.
b. The following illustration may be an accurate depiction of the future of
travel.
Year Distance in Miles Comfortably Traveled in One Day
1800 24 (on foot, 24 miles could be covered in 8 hours, at
3 miles per hour)
1900 120 (Using railroad, probably took a person 6 hours
to travel 120 miles per day)
2000 600 (Flying airplanes a distance of perhaps 600 miles
comfortably traveled in a day)
2100 3,000 (Forecast is 3,000 miles that human beings will
expect to cover comfortably in a day)
2200 15,000 (Supersupersonic planes will fly three or four
times the speed of sound, to circle the globe in 2
or 12 hours.
c. Will the human personality withstand the additional stress that such
speeds will certainly impose?
Source: Van Doren, C. (1991). A history of knowledge. New York: Ballantine Books. Adapted
with special permission.
E. REVIEW ITEMS
True-False
1. Futurism is the study of the future.
2. Education is among topics of interest to futurists.
3. The rate of population increase has climbed steadily throughout history.
4. A true global oil shortage is likely by the year 2020.
5. Water, forests, and metal ores are expected to be in short supply in the
future.
6. Although education is important to the future of our society, its impact
upon the future of the world in general is probably not too important.

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7. The population in general will probably require less education in the future
than at the present.
8. The general public does not seem to realize the importance of education to
the future of the United States.
9. It is expected that there will be a declining labor force in the United States
in the 2000s.
10. School enrollment in the near future is expected to increase.
11. In spite of declining student enrollments, a teacher shortage is expected in
the future.
12. Predicting the curriculum of the future is very difficult.
13. Researchers have predicted that the pace of educational reforms will
decrease in the future.
14. Education in the future will continue to become a lifelong pursuit for more
of the population.
15. Financing of public education will broaden with business and industry
picking up more of the tab.