A total of 180 million food-insecure people live in Sub-Saharan Africa, over 21 per cent of the African population. These are among the world’s most vulnerable people, poorly equipped to respond to the threat of climate change, demographic stresses, or spikes in global food prices. This briefing examines how improvements in agriculture might help to achieve greater food security and recommends ways to achieve this. Link: http://digital.agripolicyoutreach.org/54549/LONG-TERM-CHALLENGES-TO-FOOD-SECURITY-AND-RURAL-LIVELIHOOD-IN-SUB-SAHARAN-AFRICA/Policy-Brief

1. Briefing Paper Number 2 | 2012
GDN Agriculture Policy Series
Long-term challenges Chris Ackello-Ogutu
Victor Okoruwa
to food security Girish Nath Bahal
and rural livelihoods
in Sub-Saharan Africa
A total of 180 million food-insecure people live in Sub-Saharan Four women leave a food
Africa, over 21 per cent of the African population. These are among distribution center carrying sacks
of maize meal on their heads.
the world’s most vulnerable people, poorly equipped to respond Turkana District has been worst
to the threat of climate change, demographic stresses, or spikes affected in Kenya’s most serious
in global food prices. This briefing examines how improvements drought for 60 years.
svenn torfinn | panos pictures
in agriculture might help to achieve greater food security and
recommends ways to achieve this.
This briefing paper is one of the
Key messages 10-part Global Development
Network (GDN) Agriculture Policy
Improvements in agriculture could be Strengthen safety nets, improve health
p Series for its project, ‘Supporting
a way out of food insecurity for Africa if and education, build assets and support Policy Research to Inform
Agricultural Policy in Sub-Saharan
the right policies are pursued, the necessary livelihoods for small-scale as well as Africa and South Asia’. It is based
investment is prioritized and countries larger-scale producers to participate on a longer synthesis paper,
collaborate and share knowledge with equally in national and global markets. Long-term challenges to food
security and rural livelihoods in
each other. Policies are needed that: Support people to adapt to the impact
p Sub-Saharan Africa, which draws
Raise agricultural productivity to meet of climate change whether they live on extensive published and
p unpublished research. The full
Sub-Saharan Africa’s own food needs, in rural or urban areas. paper can be downloaded at:
develop specialist niche products www.agripolicyoutreach.org
Taking strategic decisions now
and become a competitive player in will be of value to policymakers,
It
to manage future challenges and make
the global market. experts and civil society working
the most of emerging opportunities to improve agriculture in
Spur innovation in response to climate
p has become imperative. Sub-Saharan Africa.
change, population growth and new
This project is supported by the
market opportunities, with increased Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
investment in agricultural research and
development, multiplication of new crop
and livestock genetics and dissemination
of techniques to use soil, water, labor
and land more effectively and sustainably.
Briefing Paper Number 2 Long-term challenges to food security and rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa 1

2. Overview
Experts predict that, under
a business-as-usual scenario,
by 2050 there will be 42 million
malnourished children under
five years old in Sub-Saharan Africa,
forcing many to rely on food aid.
Pictured is a box of high-energy
biscuits donated by the World
Food Programme (WFP) in Sudan.
svenn torfinn | panos pictures
Up until early 2000, the agriculture sector Despite these positive trends and the
in Sub-Saharan Africa went through policy region’s agro-diversity and potential for
and budgetary neglect that led to growth increased food production, Sub-Saharan
stagnation but this has now changed: Africa still faces daunting long-term
agricultural GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa as challenges to food security and rural
a whole grew by more than 3.5 per cent livelihoods. The region is uncompetitive
in 2008, surpassing the population growth in global agricultural commodity markets
rate, and grain production growth rates and many countries are net food importers,
have been kept above 3 per cent. making them vulnerable to volatile prices.
Poor basic infrastructure in many countries
cuts off small-scale farmers from markets
Background to the research and opportunities. An estimated 40 per
cent of people in Sub-Saharan Africa still
The long-term challenges to food security and rural livelihoods
live below the poverty line, the majority of
in Sub-Saharan Africa are examined by presenting a critical review
them living in remote rural areas. Experts
of literature on two distinct but related issues:
predict that, under a business-as-usual
p The nature and pattern of investment in Sub-Saharan African scenario, by 2050 there will be 42 million
agriculture with analysis of the present situation and prospects malnourished children under five years
for improving its performance in future. old in Sub-Saharan Africa; if climate change
p Sources of future stress to food security in the region, dwelling is taken into account, then an additional
largely on climatic and demographic changes as well as assessing the 10 million children will be malnourished.
opportunities and challenges posed by trends in global food prices.
Behind these challenges are opportunities.
The briefing does not focus on strategies for achieving food security Africa’s urban populations and incomes
and rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa but instead emphasizes are growing and with that will come
the crucial need for agricultural development as a basis for achieving greater demand for marketed food.
broad-based economic growth that will in turn lead to poverty Foreign investment and international
reduction and sustainable food security. The briefing synthesizes the trade is growing, and farmers’ investments
views and recommendations of policymakers, researchers and key in their own small-scale operations will
market players that were involved in the review exercise. increase smallholders’ capacity to respond
to market needs, increase yields and
make the most of rising commodity
prices, allowing countries to reduce
dependence on food imports through
import substitution policies. South–South
collaboration has the potential to transfer
skills, share good practice and expertise
(especially in seed multiplication, agronomy
and irrigation) and strengthen agricultural
research knowledge.
2 Briefing Paper Number 2 Long-term challenges to food security and rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa

3. Making policy in the round
A bit of background
The World Food Summit in 1996,
followed by the Millennium Development In Sub-Saharan Africa:
Goals in 2000, set a principal target of Only 5 per cent of the cropped area is
halving the proportion of people in the irrigated, compared to 14 per cent in
world suffering from hunger by 2015. Latin America and 37 per cent in Asia
In 2011, this goal was reached by three (Ringler et al, 2010); the sector is
African countries. Getting others to join therefore highly prone to weather-
them is a major challenge for regional related risks.
leaders and their development partners.
The agriculture sector accounts for:
African governments have turned p 20 per cent of the region’s GDP
towards the agriculture sector as
an engine of poverty reduction and p 15 per cent of exports
economic growth. Policymaking in p 60 per cent of employment
this area, however, must be seen (World Bank, 2009)
in the round. Complementary policies The 2003 Maputo Declaration commits
to support development in health, signatories to allocate at least 10 per
education, infrastructure, new cent of national budgets to agricultural
technology, access to markets and development in order for the sector to
empowerment of rural communities grow by at least 6 per cent annually.
are essential, with the necessary
support for implementation. With
systemic institutional weakness in many
Food consumption Sub-Saharan African countries, ensuring
projections for Africa lagging behind the rest
the year 2030 – kcal consistent pursuit of high-quality of the world
per capita per day programs is another major challenge.
While globally in the last 40 years there has
4000 been a steady increase in food consumption
in terms of kcal per capita per day of
3500 dietary energy, in Sub-Saharan Africa
dietary energy consumption stagnated
3000 during the long period of policy neglect.
Intake of dietary fats also stagnated,
2500 and per capita consumption of livestock
products and fruit and vegetables remains
2000 far below recommended levels.
Past neglect of agriculture has left
1500 Sub-Saharan Africa performing poorly
Developed in terms of agricultural productivity.
1000 East Asia The region has fallen behind other world
South Asia regions in terms of percentage of irrigated
500 Sub-Saharan Africa arable land, value added per worker,
fertilizer use and productivity growth
0 in crops and livestock activity. There has
1964/66 1974/76 1984/86 1997/99 2015 2030 been an overall decrease in average food
production per person since 1970 and
Source: FAO/WHO (2003)
production is characterized by underuse
of improved seed varieties, poor access
to credit, high post-harvest losses and
low technical efficiency, even among
large-scale producers.
The result is a loss of competitiveness and
a rise in imports, even for commodities
where one would expect Africa to have
a comparative advantage.
Briefing Paper Number 2 Long-term challenges to food security and rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa 3

4. The challenges in more detail
Policy developments since 2000
The African Union’s New Partnership
for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) has
produced a framework for change called
the Comprehensive African Agricultural
Development Programme (CAADP),
which is a blueprint for investments in
the agriculture sector. Its aim – to increase
the investment in agriculture in each
country to 10 per cent of the budget –
had been realized by just over one third
(36 per cent) of African countries in 2008.
A complementary Framework for
African Agricultural Productivity (FAAP)
encourages innovation, a more coordinated
funding approach by external donors,
and responding to stakeholder rather
than donor priorities to ensure better
Zambia grain store: agriculture
in Sub-Saharan Africa is growing harmonized activities at country, program
Situation changing but challenges
and continues to receive political and project level. Together, the two
attention but the challenges persist
frameworks have elicited pledges and
to achieving food security and
sustainable rural livelihoods persist. The situation is changing, however. seed money amounting to USD 60 million
global development network Following the signing of the Maputo in the form of a multi-donor trust fund.
Declaration in 2003 and the food crisis in
CAADP and FAAP have also provided
2007–08, there is a renewed commitment
strategies to revitalize, reform and
to agricultural development that is being
expand Africa’s research and development
boosted by an enabling policy environment,
capacity, encouraging a shift from an
advances in democracy and governance,
exclusive technology-based approach to
and a stronger civil society.
innovations that engage public, private
Regional integration is opening up and civil society stakeholders. Crucially,
markets, and rising per capita incomes they support governments’ designs
augur well for demand, particularly for agricultural programs that guarantee
for horticulture and livestock products. broad-based, pro-poor growth and an
There are good prospects for donor improvement in food security.
funds targeting investments in agriculture.
And through South–South cooperation
food production and employment stand to
gain directly, along with capacity building
and transfer of skills to the sector.
Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa
is growing and continues to receive
political attention but the challenges
to achieving food security and sustainable
rural livelihoods persist. The region is
particularly vulnerable to climate change
and global market shocks. There are
policy concerns about the implications
of demographic changes, gender
inequality and rural–urban migration
for food production, as well as access to 48-year-old Danie Nanyako works in his field
food, especially by poor rural households. in Mlaviwa village in Malawi’s Phalombe
district preparing his fields for the next rains.
As the majority of crops are rain-fed, the region
is particularly vulnerable to climate change.
svenn torfinn | panos pictures
4 Briefing Paper Number 2 Long-term challenges to food security and rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa

5. Investment and funding Global warming and climate change
Public expenditure particularly focuses Global temperatures are expected to rise by 2 degrees
on agricultural research and development, centigrade from preindustrial levels by 2050. This will
supporting 75 per cent of capacity have an adverse effect on agricultural production,
in 2000. food prices, health and wellbeing. Yields of rice,
wheat and maize, for example, are expected to decline
The private sector has perceived
by about 15 per cent, 35 per cent and 9 per cent
agriculture as an investment opportunity
respectively, on average, by 2050.
in recent years even though farm
production remains dominated by With crop yields succumbing to water and heat stress,
self-employed farm households, limiting food prices take on an extra significance. Volatile prices
sales and marketing activity. It has made will impose huge financial burdens on the economies
the most of natural resource availability, of Sub-Saharan Africa, condemning poor farmers
but its contribution to agricultural to a constant state of underdevelopment. Without
research is still relatively small, accounting alternative livelihood strategies, price volatility leads
for only 2 per cent of total investment to income volatility, inadequate access to credit, a shift
in research. towards low-risk production technologies and an
inability to respond opportunistically.
Donor support to agricultural
development has been increasing since Climate change will cause cereal consumption
around 2001, driven largely by concerns to decrease from 117kg/year in 2000 to 89kg/year
about rising international commodity in 2050. This will not be outweighed by an expected
prices, recognition by Sub-Saharan small increase in meat consumption, and with
African governments of the important declining calorie availability it is predicted that by
role of agricultural growth, and a much 2050 there will be 52 million malnourished children
improved business environment, although in Sub-Saharan Africa.
the rate of increase has been slow.
Adapting to climate change will be costly: predicted
Some donor funding emanates from costs in Sub-Saharan Africa as a percentage of GDP
South–South official development are extremely large in comparison to any other global
assistance, notably from Brazil, China region, mainly because GDP levels are comparatively
and India. China has committed funding low. Agriculture sector adaptation costs in the
to train African agricultural scientists region account for 40 per cent of the total, principally
and establish agricultural technology linked to constructing more rural roads. If agricultural
demonstration centers, while Brazil productivity could be increased, the region would
is pursuing research and technology be less vulnerable and better equipped to meet future
transfer links. Part of the South–South Food consumption climate change challenges.
projections for
cooperation involves land acquisitions the year 2030 – kcal
that continue to generate heated per capita per day
debate. Although there are investment-
related merits for such acquisitions,
2000 2050 – No CC 2050 – No CC CSIRO – CC NCAR – CC
there are concerns about lack (million tons) (million tons) (% change) (% change) (% change)
of transparency in their contractual
arrangements and the impact on land Rice 7.5 18.3 145.6 –14.5 –15.2
that is communally owned.
Wheat 4.5 11.4 153.3 –33.5 –35.8
Maize 37.1 53.9 45.3 –9.6 –7.1
Millet 13.1 48.1 267.2 –6.9 –7.6
Sorghum 19.0 60.1 216.3 –2.3 –3.0
Source: Nelson et al (2009)
Note: 2050 – No CC (% change) means per cent change between production in 2000
and 2050 with no climate change. CSIRO – CC (% change) and NCAR – CC (% change) indicate
the additional change in production due to climate change under the two different models:
CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) and
NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research).
Briefing Paper Number 2 Long-term challenges to food security and rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa 5

6. Women selling grain to people
with a small or irregular income,
who cannot afford to buy in
bulk but purchase small amounts
when they need it at a market in
Mokko. Many experts believe that
food prices will remain high until
investment raises productivity
on the world’s limited farmland.
jenny matthews | panos pictures
Demographic changes Likewise, policies to cope with a mass
exodus of young people from rural areas
The changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s
are required. Many young people feel that
demographics (see box) have implications
opportunities in agriculture are blocked
for sustaining food security.
by the controlling hands of the older
There will be shrinkage in the agricultural
p generation, declining land area, worsening
labor force. climate, unreliable markets and lack
Those left behind will be older, less
p of investment. This outmigration from the
productive and more risk averse to new sector will lead to impoverishment unless
technological innovations. it is matched by rapid innovation and
There will be a rise in female-headed
p market development, not only in agriculture
households, often poorer and more but also in non-farm activity.
vulnerable to external shocks.
Global food price trends
Dependency ratios are likely to rise, leading
p
to increasing costs of education and The Food and Agricultural Organization
healthcare at a time when agricultural (FAO) food price index reached an
productivity is stagnating. all-time high in February 2011, and many
experts believe that prices will remain
Research by Jayne et al (2002) indicates that high until and unless sharply increased
Sub-Saharan Africa the ratio of land under crop cultivation to public investment raises productivity
population changes agricultural population is declining in Africa. on the world’s limited farmland. Energy
Masters (2010) shows how the rate of and fertilizer prices are also expected
2005 770 million people
decline will slow but not stop for several to increase and remain high.
2050 1.5–2 billion people decades, accumulating demand for
(projected) increased yields and sustainable land Urban dwellers and poor rural households
management practices. Some households are hardest hit by price rises, especially
Population growth rates for in net food-importing countries without
will intensify production by using fertilizers,
urban centers in Sub-Saharan alternative coping strategies. After the
conservation agriculture and integrated
Africa will be three times the 2007–08 price spikes the FAO estimated
crop–livestock operations, but the payoff
growth rate for rural areas in that the number of undernourished
to additional inputs depends on the
the next 20 to 25 years. people increased by 8 per cent in Africa.
availability of appropriate seed varieties
The absolute number of rural as well as access to markets. Those who Price increases expose many vulnerable
people is expected to grow, cannot achieve sustainable intensification people to hunger and food insecurity,
with the upward trend will see their incomes decrease as labor but in the right context they can spur public
continuing well past 2030. productivity falls. investment and open new opportunities
As women assume major responsibilities for African farmers, providing a chance
for agricultural production following male to reconquer markets nationally and
migration to urban areas, they expose regionally. For this to become a reality they
themselves to the impact of climate change will need supportive trade policies, access
and unstable food prices. Gender-nuanced to markets and investment in infrastructure.
policies, support and coping strategies
need to be developed for times of crisis.
6 Briefing Paper Number 2 Long-term challenges to food security and rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa

7. Recommendations
Taking advantage of
p Using index insurance as a response
p
agro-climatic diversity to climate change
Sub-Saharan Africa has a wide diversity Index insurance is a way of sharing
of agro-climatic conditions which make a given risk among the insured population.
it possible to grow a variety of products It can help farmers to get access to loans
for both domestic and foreign markets. and encourage them to invest in increasing
It needs foreign direct investment to productivity because it removes the
develop this production, balancing foreign worry about being able to repay a loan
purchase of land with transparent practice in the event of an extreme weather
to include smallholders and civil society shock. Government policies can support
in the process. pilot schemes, product promotion and
marketing, contract design and sales
Increasing use of natural resources
p skills building, and legal and regulatory
Current projections from the International regimes to facilitate scale-up.
Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
show that dependence on food imports Managing the impact of food
p
will increase. Sub-Saharan Africa should price instability
be moving towards being a net exporter Targeted assistance, safety nets and
of commodities such as rice, maize, entitlement programs, such as conditional
soybeans, sugar and palm oil, to avoid cash transfers, vouchers for food and
becoming overdependent on imports. farm inputs, and employment guarantees,
can protect the assets and human capital
Adding value and seeking new markets
p of the most vulnerable. These programs
Sub-Saharan Africa needs the right respond quickly to local conditions,
regulatory and legal regime, supply of ensuring that past investments are not
specialized information and knowledge, destroyed during crises.
good infrastructure and access to finance
Longer-term strategies must focus on
to enable producers in the region to
increased productivity achieved through
invest in non-traditional, niche, fresh
larger investment in research, adapting
and processed products for export.
crops and livestock to changing conditions,
Building human resource capacity
p extension work and infrastructure, and
Agriculture research and development greater use of fertilizer and irrigation
is lacking specialists. Governments towards sustainable intensification,
and donor organizations must increase in order to meet the needs of Africa’s
their investment in agricultural higher rapidly growing population while
education to provide more postgraduate enhancing the continent’s biodiversity
places, curriculum development and natural resources.
and scholarships. Improving trade policies
p
p Promoting smallholder participation The Doha round of trade talks must
in agricultural markets be completed to create a well-regulated
Policies should tackle poor food trading system, and at the regional
distribution networks, reliance on rain-fed level, intra-regional barriers to trade
production, weak information systems must be removed. Regional bodies can
and scarce access to credit. The private contribute to sharing market information
sector can be encouraged to work with and intelligence. A buffer against
both large- and small-scale producers – food price spikes could be created by
the latter organized into larger associations establishing a virtual food reserve to keep
to take advantage of new markets, better prices closer to a long-term average price.
information, technology and finance.
Briefing Paper Number 2 Long-term challenges to food security and rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa 7

8. Key references
The full paper Long term challenges
P Abbott and A Borot de Battisti (2011) G C Nelson, M Rosegrant, J Koo, to food security and rural livelihoods in
‘ ecent global food price shocks:
R R Robertson, T Sulser, T Zhu, S Msangi, Sub-Saharan Africa is available for download at
Causes, consequences and lessons C Ringler, A Palazzo, M Batka, www.agripolicyoutreach.org
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Journal of African Economies, Climate change impact on agriculture
Prof. Chris Ackello-Ogutu
vol 20 (S1), ppi12–i62 and costs of adaptation, IFPRI Food Policy
University of Nairobi, Kenya
C Ackello-Ogutu (2011) Report, Washington DC: International
Food Policy Research Institute Prof. Victor Okoruwa
‘ anaging food security implications
M University of Ibadan, Nigeria
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Girish Nath Bahal
Journal of African Economies, vol 20, OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook
University of Cambridge, UK
ppi100–i141 2011–2020, Paris and Rome
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Prof. William A. Masters
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The state of food and agriculture 2007, USAID response to global food crises, you wish to reproduce or build upon this work,
If
Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization www.usaid.gov/our_work/ please contact Global Development Network (GDN).
of the United Nations humanitarian_assistance/foodcrisis © Global Development Network
FAO/HLEF (2009) World Bank (2007) All photographs © Panos Pictures, panos.co.uk
High-Level Expert Forum – ‘The special World Development Report 2008: except one photograph on page 4
challenge for sub-Saharan Africa, Agriculture for Development, © Global Development Network.
How to feed the world in 2050’, Rome, Washington DC: World Bank
12–13 October 2009 Designed and produced for GDN by Panos London,
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(eds) (2002) Systems in Africa: Agriculture and All rights reserved.
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A World Bank
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Africa, Wallingford, UK: CAB International Washington DC: World Bank
ew Delhi | Cairo | Washington DC
N
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8 Briefing Paper Number 2 Long-term challenges to food security and rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa