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Arctic resilience assessment: exploring methods for scaling up
- 1. Arctic Resilience Assessment Juan-Carlos Rocha Miriam Huitric Garry Peterson
- 2. “The approach involves constructing a conceptual model of a system that includes resources, stakeholders and institutions, and identifies potential thresholds between alternative systems states in order to provide insight into factors that build or erode a systems resilience” Regime Shifts & Adaptive Capacity • Arctic: Political, economical and ecologically dynamic setting dominated by cross- scale interactions • Developing methods to scale up the resilience assessment to the Arctic region • Combining the framework from the Regime Shifts Database with analysis of detailed case studies to better understand sources of adaptive capacity
- 3. Mechanism Existence Well established Proposed Contested Contested Proposed Well established Soil structure Marine foodwebs Monsoon weakening Termohaline circulation West Antarctica Collapse Encroachment Fisheries collapse Dryland degradation Forest to savanna Steppe to tundra Mangroves collapse Tundra to forest Floating plants Thermokarst lakes Greenland Arctic sea ice Bivalves collapse Coral transitions Lake Eutrophication Marine Eutrophication Hypoxia Kelps transitions Peatlands River channel change Salt marshes Soil salinization Regime Shift Database includes 11 Arctic related Regime Shifts
- 4. Arctic network analysis with 11 Regime Shifts Access to markets Agriculture Atmospheric CO2 Demand Drainage Droughts ENSO like events Fire frequency Fishing Fishing technology Floods Global warming Green house gases Hunting Invasive species Nutrients inputs Precipitation Rainfall variability Ranching (livestock) Sea level rise Sediments Subsidies Temperature Tragedy of the commons Upwellings Urbanization Arctic sea ice Fisheries collapse Greenland Marine foodwebs Peatlands River channel change Salt marshes Steppe to tundra Thermohaline circulation Thermokarst lakes Tundra to Forest Arctic Sea Ice Fisheries collapse Greenland Marine foodwebs Peatlands River channel change Salt marshes Steppe to tundra Termohaline circulation Thermokarst lakes Tundra to Forest Soil formation Primary production Nutrient cycling Water cycling Biodiversity Freshwater Foodcrops Livestock Fisheries Wild animal and plant food Timber Other crops Hydropower Climate regulation Water purification Water regulation Regulation of soil erosion Pest and disease regulation Natural hazard regulation Recreation Aesthetic values Knowledge and educational values Spiritual and religious
- 5. In how many different ways can the drivers impact ecosystem services? Fishing Nutrientsinputs Precipitation Urbanization Tragedyofthecommons Subsidies Accesstomarkets Fishingtechnology Upwellings Demand ENSOlikeevents Drainage Sediments Invasivespecies Sealevelrise Floods Firefrequency Agriculture Droughts Ranching(livestock) Hunting Rainfallvariability Globalwarming AtmosphericCO2 Greenhousegases Temperature Water cycling Climate regulation Biodiversity Fisheries Aesthetic values Wild animal and plant food Water regulation Freshwater Water purification Soil formation Regulation of soil erosion Other crops Natural hazard regulation Timber Livestock Foodcrops Hydropower Spiritual and religious Pest and disease regulation Knowledge and educational values Recreation Primary production Nutrient cycling
- 6. Impacts on people Health Socialconflict Nodirectimpact Culturalidentity Securityofhousingandinfrastructure Aestheticandrecreationalvalues Foodandnutrition Livelihoodsandeconomicactivities Peatlands Thermokarst lakes Greenland Steppe to tundra River channel change Termohaline circulation Salt marshes Fisheries collapse Arctic Sea Ice Marine foodwebs Tundra to Forest Human well-being Peatlands Marine foodwebs Steppe to tundra Termohaline circulation Tundra to Forest Greenland River channel change Fisheries collapse Arctic Sea Ice Salt marshes Thermokarst lakes 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Provisioning Regulating Cultural Supporting Ecosystem Services
- 7. Case studies comparison Building resilience and Adaptive capacity ! Learning to live with change and uncertainty ! Nurturing diversity for reorganisation and renewal ! Combining different types of knowledge for learning ! Creating opportunity for self- organisation (Folke et al 2004) Source: Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013
- 8. Managing Arctic regime shift drivers International cooperation to manage most drivers of regime shifts. Regulating single drivers, such as Climate change, won’t prevent all regime shifts. Need for transformations! Regulating local drivers can build resilience to global drivers. Avoiding regime shifts requires poly-centric institutions. Fisheries collapse Salt marshes Peatlands Steppe to tundra Marine foodwebs Arctic sea ice Greenland River channel change Thermohaline circulation Thermokarst lakes Tundra to Forest Local National International Drivers by Management Type Proportion of RS Drivers 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
- 9. Subscribe to our newsletter www.stockholmresilience.su.se/subscribe Thank you!
- 10. Work in progress ! 1.Coastal erosion in Alaska 2.Moth larvae outbreaks & birch forest mortality in Norway 3.Coastal fishery in Norway 4.Sea ice in Greenland 5.Relocation due to floods in Lena river, Russia 6.Permafrost thawing and pastoralism in Yakutia, Russia 7.Increasing Arctic shipping and impact on Vaigach, Russia 8.Whale watching / tourism in Iceland 9.Reindeer husbandry Yamal-Nenets, W Russia 10.Näätämö drainage basing restoration and salmon, Finland 11.Reindeer husbandry in Finnmark, Norway 12.Livelihoods shift and mobility in northern Greenland 13.Salmon decline in Alaska 14.Yukaghirs-Elk hunting in Yakutia, Russia ! Potential cases to add? ! 15.Polar bears (hunting*) 16.Bringing back large herbivores 17.Urbanization (~ livelihoods shift?)* 18.Acidification* 19.Snow geese 20.Avalanches* 21.Arctic transport routes** 22.Cultural shifts (ecosystem services, education, ethnic identity) 23.Self-determination (first nations sovereignty, cultural identity, institutions e.g. co-management)