2. “The approach involves constructing a conceptual model
of a system that includes resources, stakeholders and
institutions, and identifies potential thresholds between
alternative systems states in order to provide insight into
factors that build or erode a systems resilience”
Regime Shifts &
Adaptive Capacity
• Arctic: Political, economical
and ecologically dynamic
setting dominated by cross-
scale interactions
• Developing methods to scale
up the resilience assessment to
the Arctic region
• Combining the framework from
the Regime Shifts Database
with analysis of detailed case
studies to better understand
sources of adaptive capacity
3. Mechanism
Existence
Well
established
Proposed
Contested
Contested
Proposed
Well established
Soil structure
Marine foodwebs
Monsoon weakening
Termohaline circulation
West Antarctica Collapse
Encroachment
Fisheries collapse
Dryland degradation
Forest to savanna
Steppe to tundra
Mangroves collapse
Tundra to forest
Floating plants
Thermokarst lakes
Greenland
Arctic sea ice
Bivalves collapse
Coral transitions
Lake Eutrophication
Marine Eutrophication
Hypoxia
Kelps transitions
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt marshes
Soil salinization
Regime Shift Database
includes 11 Arctic related Regime Shifts
4. Arctic network analysis with 11 Regime Shifts
Access to markets
Agriculture
Atmospheric CO2
Demand
Drainage
Droughts
ENSO like events
Fire frequency
Fishing
Fishing technology
Floods
Global warming
Green house gases
Hunting
Invasive species
Nutrients inputs
Precipitation
Rainfall variability
Ranching (livestock)
Sea level rise
Sediments
Subsidies
Temperature
Tragedy of the commons
Upwellings
Urbanization
Arctic sea ice
Fisheries collapse
Greenland
Marine foodwebs
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt marshes
Steppe to tundra
Thermohaline circulation
Thermokarst lakes
Tundra to Forest
Arctic Sea Ice
Fisheries collapse
Greenland
Marine foodwebs
Peatlands
River channel change
Salt marshes
Steppe to tundra
Termohaline circulation
Thermokarst lakes
Tundra to Forest
Soil formation
Primary production
Nutrient cycling
Water cycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Wild animal and plant food
Timber
Other crops
Hydropower
Climate regulation
Water purification
Water regulation
Regulation of soil erosion
Pest and disease regulation
Natural hazard regulation
Recreation
Aesthetic values
Knowledge and educational values
Spiritual and religious
5. In how many different ways can the drivers
impact ecosystem services?
Fishing
Nutrientsinputs
Precipitation
Urbanization
Tragedyofthecommons
Subsidies
Accesstomarkets
Fishingtechnology
Upwellings
Demand
ENSOlikeevents
Drainage
Sediments
Invasivespecies
Sealevelrise
Floods
Firefrequency
Agriculture
Droughts
Ranching(livestock)
Hunting
Rainfallvariability
Globalwarming
AtmosphericCO2
Greenhousegases
Temperature
Water cycling
Climate regulation
Biodiversity
Fisheries
Aesthetic values
Wild animal and plant food
Water regulation
Freshwater
Water purification
Soil formation
Regulation of soil erosion
Other crops
Natural hazard regulation
Timber
Livestock
Foodcrops
Hydropower
Spiritual and religious
Pest and disease regulation
Knowledge and educational values
Recreation
Primary production
Nutrient cycling
7. Case studies comparison
Building resilience and Adaptive
capacity
!
Learning to live with change and
uncertainty
!
Nurturing diversity for reorganisation
and renewal
!
Combining different types of
knowledge for learning
!
Creating opportunity for self-
organisation
(Folke et al 2004)
Source: Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013
8. Managing Arctic regime shift drivers
International cooperation to
manage most drivers of
regime shifts.
Regulating single drivers, such
as Climate change, won’t
prevent all regime shifts. Need
for transformations!
Regulating local drivers can
build resilience to global
drivers.
Avoiding regime shifts requires
poly-centric institutions.
Fisheries collapse
Salt marshes
Peatlands
Steppe to tundra
Marine foodwebs
Arctic sea ice
Greenland
River channel change
Thermohaline circulation
Thermokarst lakes
Tundra to Forest
Local
National
International
Drivers by Management Type
Proportion of RS Drivers
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
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Thank
you!
10. Work in progress
!
1.Coastal erosion in Alaska
2.Moth larvae outbreaks & birch forest mortality in Norway
3.Coastal fishery in Norway
4.Sea ice in Greenland
5.Relocation due to floods in Lena river, Russia
6.Permafrost thawing and pastoralism in Yakutia, Russia
7.Increasing Arctic shipping and impact on Vaigach, Russia
8.Whale watching / tourism in Iceland
9.Reindeer husbandry Yamal-Nenets, W Russia
10.Näätämö drainage basing restoration and salmon,
Finland
11.Reindeer husbandry in Finnmark, Norway
12.Livelihoods shift and mobility in northern Greenland
13.Salmon decline in Alaska
14.Yukaghirs-Elk hunting in Yakutia, Russia
!
Potential cases to add?
!
15.Polar bears (hunting*)
16.Bringing back large herbivores
17.Urbanization (~ livelihoods shift?)*
18.Acidification*
19.Snow geese
20.Avalanches*
21.Arctic transport routes**
22.Cultural shifts (ecosystem services, education, ethnic
identity)
23.Self-determination (first nations sovereignty, cultural
identity, institutions e.g. co-management)
